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Innovations in Travel Demand Modeling, Volume 2: Papers (2008)

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Suggested Citation:"T57054 txt_187.pdf." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2008. Innovations in Travel Demand Modeling, Volume 2: Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13678.
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187 Data- Oriented Travel Behavior Analysis Based on Probe Person Systems Eiji Hato, University of Tokyo, Japan Ryuichi Kitamura, Kyoto University, Japan Planning methods, like most methods in science andengineering, evolve within the confines of the tech-nologies available at the time of development, and travel survey methods are not an exception. It took a leap of conceptualization before roadside surveys, which addressed car trips, were replaced by household travel sur- veys, which addressed person trips. The conceptualization of urban passenger travel was then formalized to be what is known to be four- step procedures. With what now appear as extremely limited capabilities of data processing and sta- tistical analyses in the 1950s and 1960s, the four- step pro- cedures adopted the approach of aggregating the rich information available from travel surveys at household and individual levels to the level of traffic zones. Likewise, trip ends were coded by using traffic zones. Trip starting and ending times reported in the surveys were not well utilized, other than perhaps for estimating the duration of each trip, and many of the analyses in the four- step procedures were performed disregarding the time- of- day dimension. The problem today is that many of these weaknesses remain, when many of the technical constraints have disappeared. Researchers became aware of the statistical ineffi- ciency of aggregating information to the zone level as early as the 1960s, and estimation of trip generation models at the level of household was proposed. At the time, however, storing and processing of data were quite a challenge. Fast computers, inexpensive data storage media, and easy- to- use statistical and econometric soft- ware packages now available have made the analysis of large- scale household travel survey results possible at the desktop of a researcher or planner. Household travel sur- vey results have been used to analyze a wide range of behavioral aspects, not just trip generation, distribution, modal split, and network assignment. Examples include trip chaining, time use, daily activity scheduling, and group behavior. In fact, the last three decades have shown that the information contained in results of con- ventional household travel surveys can be used in ana- lyzing a rich spectrum of behavioral aspects as the evolution of the activity- based analysis field has demon- strated (Jones et al. 1990, Kitamura 1990). Spatial ele- ments, however, have continued to be the weak link, and geocoding trip ends to the point in a transportation study is rather an exception than a norm even now. Another weakness is the error in reporting trip beginning and ending times (Kitamura 1990). Recent developments in information and communica- tions technology, however, are changing this situation by making possible acquisition of precise time and location information from survey respondents. A Global Posi- tioning System (GPS) unit integrated into a cellular phone transforms a survey respondent into a “probe” (subsequently called “probe person” rather than “probe vehicle”) whose trajectories in space and time can be recorded with levels of accuracy unimaginable from the conventional questionnaire- based surveys. When these are supplemented with web- based data acquisition on the contents of activities (what type, with whom, etc.), opportunity characteristics (facility types), and trip attributes (cotravelers, parking facilities and charges), one can obtain every type of measurement that has tra- ditionally been used in travel behavior analysis and demand forecasting. In addition, attempts have been made to acquire unconventional measurements, such as

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TRB Conference Proceedings 42, Innovations in Travel Demand Modeling, Volume 2: Papers includes the papers that were presented at a May 21-23, 2006, conference that examined advances in travel demand modeling, explored the opportunities and the challenges associated with the implementation of advanced travel models, and reviewed the skills and training necessary to apply new modeling techniques. TRB Conference Proceedings 42, Innovations in Travel Demand Modeling, Volume 1: Session Summaries is available online.

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