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Innovations in Travel Demand Modeling, Volume 2: Papers (2008)

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Suggested Citation:"T57054 txt_062.pdf." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2008. Innovations in Travel Demand Modeling, Volume 2: Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13678.
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variables are synthesized much less accurately, even in the base year. Second, the accuracy drops when results are examined at a more detailed level of aggregation. Third, even for controlled variables, the accuracy is not perfect; in the ARC base- year case, the rounding proce- dures used after IPF, before the households are drawn, introduce a substantial amount of noise; in the forecast case, the use of averages (variables that do not match the IPF categories) and regional values all degrade accuracy, precision, or both. The accuracy and precision of the forecast population are less than those of the base- year population, even assuming that the forecast inputs are accurate, because (a) the quantity of forecast controls is smaller and (b) they are more aggregate than the base- year controls. The conclusion to be drawn is that it is indeed important to implement validation procedures that provide the user of a PopSyn with the information needed to use it appropriately. It is also valuable to implement a flexible PopSyn that can be adjusted and improved in response to the validation information. With this version of the PopSyn in hand, ARC is in a good position to continue validating and improving it, even as ARC incorporates it into the demand models and uses it for analysis. 62 INNOVATIONS IN TRAVEL DEMAND MODELING, VOLUME 2 TABLE 2 Aggregation Levels at Which Variables in Synthetic Population Have Reasonably High Accuracy and Precision Base Year Usage Forecast Year Usage Variable (Version 316) (Version 52) Household income (major control categories) Tract Tract Household income (subcategories) PUMA PUMA Person poverty status PUMA ? Household size (major control categories) Tract PUMA Household size (subcategories) Tract PUMA Household workers (major control categories) Tract PUMA Household workers (subcategories) PUMA PUMA Person employment status PUMA PUMA Person weekly work hours (35+ category) Tract PUMA Person weekly work hours (other categories) PUMA PUMA Household with holder age 65+ Tract PUMA Household presence/absence of own children age 0–17 Tract PUMA Person age category PUMA PUMA Household family status Tract PUMA Household housing type (major categories) PUMA PUMA Household housing ownership (major categories) PUMA PUMA Person gender Tract Tract Person race and Hispanic status PUMA ? Person school enrollment category PUMA ?

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TRB Conference Proceedings 42, Innovations in Travel Demand Modeling, Volume 2: Papers includes the papers that were presented at a May 21-23, 2006, conference that examined advances in travel demand modeling, explored the opportunities and the challenges associated with the implementation of advanced travel models, and reviewed the skills and training necessary to apply new modeling techniques. TRB Conference Proceedings 42, Innovations in Travel Demand Modeling, Volume 1: Session Summaries is available online.

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