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Innovations in Travel Demand Modeling, Volume 2: Papers (2008)

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Suggested Citation:"T57054 txt_063.pdf." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2008. Innovations in Travel Demand Modeling, Volume 2: Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13678.
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63 Microsimulation of Single- Family Residential Land Use for Market Equilibriums Bin (Brenda) Zhou, University of Texas at Austin Kara M. Kockelman, University of Texas at Austin This paper investigates single- family residential develop- ment for housing market equilibriums by using micro- economic theory and disaggregate spatial data. A logit model and notions of price competition are used to sim- ulate household location choices in six scenarios, with either one or multiple employment centers and with low, medium, and high value- of- travel- time assumptions. Consistent with bid–rent theory, housing market equilib- rium for each scenario was reached in an iterative fash- ion. The spatial allocation of new households in the region of Austin, Texas, illustrated the potential shape of things to come, with endogenously determined home prices and demographic distributions. As an essential part of urban travel behaviors, pre-diction of future land use patterns is of great inter-est to policy makers, developers, planners, transportation engineers, and others. Residential land is in the range of 60% of developed land, dominating urban areas. Moreover, the emergence of commercial, industrial, office, and civic uses is spatially correlated with residential development (e.g., Zhou and Kockelman 2005). Numerous factors contribute to the complexity of housing location choices (e.g., Irwin and Bockstael 2004 and Bina and Kockelman 2006). Microeconomic theory tested with disaggregate spatial data offers behavioral foundations and a better understanding of such deci- sions. These theories of land use can be traced back to the concept of agricultural rents and travel costs around a market center proposed by Von Thünen (1826, as reported in de la Barra 1989), which was followed by the urban examples of Wingo (1961) and Alonso (1964). These early models treat land as homogeneous and con- tinuous and recognize only one employment center. Moreover, they neglect taste heterogeneity. The Herbert and Stevens model (1960) determined residential prices by maximizing aggregate rents subject to constraints on (total) land availability and the number of households to be accommodated. Senior and Wilson (1974) enhanced the Herbert–Stevens model by adding an entropy term to the objective function, reflecting pref- erence dispersion among households. Both models treat spatial elements in an aggregate manner, using an exhaustive zone- based subdivision of the region. Recent, more- advanced models (e.g., Anas and Xu 1999 and Chang and Mackett 2005) depict household distribution via general equilibrium and land use–transportation interactions. However, their complexity has greatly lim- ited their application. In contrast to the earlier models and methods, this investigation emphasizes parcel- level data [geographic information system (GIS) encoded] and considers taste heterogeneity of individual households via behavioral controls for demographic variables and random utility maximization. The model applied here relies on bid–rent theory, which is both theoretically meaningful and prac- tically feasible. This work examines single- family resi- dential land development on the basis of a microscopic equilibrium of the housing market for recent movers. Each home- seeking household is allocated to the loca- tion that offers it the highest utility, and each new home is occupied by the highest bidder. This process ensures

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TRB Conference Proceedings 42, Innovations in Travel Demand Modeling, Volume 2: Papers includes the papers that were presented at a May 21-23, 2006, conference that examined advances in travel demand modeling, explored the opportunities and the challenges associated with the implementation of advanced travel models, and reviewed the skills and training necessary to apply new modeling techniques. TRB Conference Proceedings 42, Innovations in Travel Demand Modeling, Volume 1: Session Summaries is available online.

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