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OCR for page 89
Comprehensive Econometric Microsimulator for Daily Activity-Travel Patterns Recent Developments and Sensitivity Testing Results Chandra R. Bhat, University of Texas, Austin Abdul Pinjari, University of Texas, Austin Naveen Eluru, University of Texas, Austin Ipek Sener, University of Texas, Austin Rachel Copperman, University of Texas, Austin Jessica Guo, University of Wisconsin Siva Srinivasan, University of Florida The Comprehensive Econometric Microsimulator for The first step predicts the decisions of household Daily Activity-Travel Patterns (CEMDAP) is continuous- members to pursue various activities during the day. time activity-travel prediction software currently being This step, in turn, comprises the following three sequen- evaluated through application to the DallasFort Worth, tial steps (each of which may comprise one or more Texas, metropolitan area. This paper describes the state models): of the overall work in progress and the tasks planned for refinement and testing of the software system. (All CEM- 1. Work and school activity participation and timing DAP documents are available at decisions, prof/bhat/FULL_CEMDAP.htm.) The paper is organized 2. Generation of children's travel needs (such as as follows: First is a description of the latest version (Ver- school and leisure) and allocation of escort responsibili- sion 0.3) of CEMDAP, specifically an overview of the ties to parents, and econometric modeling framework incorporated within 3. Generation of independent activities (such as shop- Version 0.3 and a focus on software development efforts. ping, recreation, and personal business) for personal and Presented next is the sensitivity testing undertaken with household needs. Version 0.2 of the software. Last is a summary that includes identification of the areas of ongoing work and The second step predicts the sequencing of the activi- tasks planned for the immediate future. ties generated in the previous step, accommodating the spacetime constraints imposed by work, school, and escort-of-children activities. This major step broadly comprises the following sequential scheduling steps T he Comprehensive Econometric Microsimulator for (each of which may comprise one or more models): Daily Activity-Travel Patterns (CEMDAP) is based on a system of econometric models. Each model corre- 1. Commutes for each worker in the household sponds to the determination of one or more activity-travel (mode; number of stops; and, for each stop, the activity attributes. These models are applied in a systematic sequence to type, activity duration, travel time, and location); generate the daily activity and travel patterns of all members 2. Drop-off tour for the nonworker escorting children (both adults and children) in each household in the study area. to school; The overall prediction procedure for a household is subdivided 3. Pick-up tour for the nonworker escorting children into two major sequential steps: first, the prediction of activity from school; generation and allocation decisions and, second, the prediction 4. Commutes for school-going children (mode and of activity scheduling decisions. duration); 78