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OCR for page 149
SECTION VI--GUIDANCE FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF THE AASHTO STRATEGIC HIGHWAY SAFETY PLAN
Implementation Step 6: Evaluate Alternatives and Select a Plan
General Description
This step is needed to arrive at a logical basis for prioritizing and selecting among the
alternative strategies or program packages that have been developed. There are several
activities that need to be performed. One proposed list is shown in Appendix P.
The process involves making estimates for each of the established performance measures for
the program and comparing them, both individually and in total. To do this in a quantitative
manner requires some basis for estimating the effectiveness of each strategy. Where solid
evidence has been found on effectiveness, it has been presented for each strategy in the
guide. In some cases, agencies have a set of crash reduction factors that are used to arrive at
effectiveness estimates. Where a high degree of uncertainty exists, it is wise to use sensitivity
analyses to test the validity of any conclusions that may be made regarding which is the best
strategy or set of strategies to use. Further discussion of this may be found in Appendix O.
Cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses are usually used to help identify inefficient or
inappropriate strategies, as well as to establish priorities. For further definition of the two
terms, see Appendix Q. For a comparison of the two techniques, see Appendix S. Aspects of
feasibility, other than economic, must also be considered at this point. An excellent set of
references is provided within online benefit-cost guides:
· One is under development at the following site, maintained by the American Society of
Civil Engineers: http://ceenve.calpoly.edu/sullivan/cutep/cutep_bc_outline_main.htm
· The other is Guide to Benefit-Cost Analysis in Transport Canada, September 1994,
http://www.tc.gc.ca/finance/bca/en/TOC_e.htm. An overall summary of this
document is given in Appendix V.
In some cases, a strategy or program may look promising, but no evidence may be available
as to its likely effectiveness. This would be especially true for innovative methods or use of
emerging technologies. In such cases, it may be advisable to plan a pilot study to arrive at a
minimum level of confidence in its effectiveness, before large-scale investment is made or a
large segment of the public is involved in something untested.
It is at this stage of detailed analysis that the crash reduction goals, set in Step 3, may be
revisited, with the possibility of modification.
It is important that this step be conducted with the full participation of the stakeholders. If the
previous steps were followed, the working group will have the appropriate representation.
Technical assistance from more than one discipline may be necessary to go through
more complex issues. Group consensus will be important on areas such as estimates of
effectiveness, as well as the rating and ranking of alternatives. Techniques are available to
assist in arriving at consensus. For example, see the following Web site for an overview:
http://www.tc.gc.ca/finance/bca/en/Printable_e.htm.
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SECTION VI--GUIDANCE FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF THE AASHTO STRATEGIC HIGHWAY SAFETY PLAN
Specific Elements
1. Assess feasibility
1.1. Human resources
1.2. Special constraints
1.3. Legislative requirements
1.4. Other
1.5. This is often done in a qualitative way, to narrow the list of choices to be
studied in more detail (see, for example, Appendix BB)
2. Estimate values for each of the performance measures for each strategy and plan
2.1. Estimate costs and impacts
2.1.1. Consider guidelines provided in the detailed description of strategies
in this material
2.1.2. Adjust as necessary to reflect local knowledge or practice
2.1.3. Where a plan or program is being considered that includes more than
one strategy, combine individual estimates
2.2. Prepare results for cost-benefit and/or cost-effectiveness analyses
2.3. Summarize the estimates in both disaggregate (by individual strategy) and
aggregate (total for the program) form
3. Conduct a cost-benefit and/or cost-effectiveness analysis to identify inefficient, as well as
dominant, strategies and programs and to establish a priority for the alternatives
3.1. Test for dominance (both lower cost and higher effectiveness than others)
3.2. Estimate relative cost-benefit and/or cost-effectiveness
3.3. Test productivity
4. Develop a report that documents the effort, summarizing the alternatives considered
and presenting a preferred program, as devised by the working group (for suggestions
on a report of a benefit-cost analysis, see Appendix U).
4.1. Designed for high-level decision makers, as well as technical personnel who
would be involved in the implementation
4.2. Extensive use of graphics and layout techniques to facilitate understanding
and capture interest
4.3. Recommendations regarding meeting or altering the crash reduction goals
established in Step 3.
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