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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Findings on Emerging Technologies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2007. Improving Public Transportation Technology Implementations and Anticipating Emerging Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13894.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Findings on Emerging Technologies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2007. Improving Public Transportation Technology Implementations and Anticipating Emerging Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13894.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Findings on Emerging Technologies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2007. Improving Public Transportation Technology Implementations and Anticipating Emerging Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13894.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Findings on Emerging Technologies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2007. Improving Public Transportation Technology Implementations and Anticipating Emerging Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13894.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Findings on Emerging Technologies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2007. Improving Public Transportation Technology Implementations and Anticipating Emerging Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13894.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Findings on Emerging Technologies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2007. Improving Public Transportation Technology Implementations and Anticipating Emerging Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13894.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Findings on Emerging Technologies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2007. Improving Public Transportation Technology Implementations and Anticipating Emerging Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13894.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Findings on Emerging Technologies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2007. Improving Public Transportation Technology Implementations and Anticipating Emerging Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13894.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Findings on Emerging Technologies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2007. Improving Public Transportation Technology Implementations and Anticipating Emerging Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13894.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Findings on Emerging Technologies." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2007. Improving Public Transportation Technology Implementations and Anticipating Emerging Technologies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13894.
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59 This chapter focuses on the second of the two major ob- jectives of this study: promoting consideration of emerging technologies for application in transit. Five “technologies to watch” are identified. These emerging technologies are those that are not currently in use by public transportation agen- cies, but are expected to be available to them within the next 10 years. From the research conducted for this study, it is apparent that most agencies have little if any time to devote to anticipating future technologies. The information pre- sented here is intended to help fill that gap. Introducing these technologies here is intended to promote agencies’ continued tracking of the development and applicability of these and similar technologies, ultimately improving their chances of successful adoption. As a prelude to the discussion of future technologies, some findings are presented from the transit agency interviews. These findings characterize agencies’ general perspectives on future technologies and their relative focus on them compared to existing technologies. The discussion of high-potential emerg- ing technologies is divided into two major sections. The first identifies five “top” technologies and the second highlights a handful of other promising technologies. 3.1 Agency Perspectives on Future Technologies From the interviews conducted for this study, it is evident that most agencies are able to devote very little attention to “emerging” or “future” technologies (those technologies not currently commercially available to transit), even though they are quite interested in these technologies. Rather, agencies seem to expend nearly all of their available resources on deal- ing with the challenges associated with implementing current technologies, such as electronic fare payment, and getting the most value out of their deployed technologies, such as by in- tegrating various systems. These findings are consistent with the experience of the project team in working directly with agencies on technology projects and technology strategic planning. Agencies’ focus on integration of existing systems is consistent with these major findings from the FTA report, Advanced Public Transportation Systems: The State of the Art— Update 2006: The greatest improvements in ITS will come from efforts to integrate existing technologies into cohesive state-of-the-art systems, where collectively they provide far more benefits than any one technology functioning independently. The stand-alone nature of most individual technology deploy- ments limits the benefits that could be provided by business- oriented, enterprise-wide technology strategies.88 Resource constraints seemed to be the main thing pre- venting the interviewed agencies from focusing more on anticipating future technologies. However, for many less progressive agencies, resource constraints are not the only significant reason for the lack of attention paid to emerging technologies. The literature and the interviews and focus group conducted for this study emphasize the importance of utilizing COTS technologies when possible. This may suggest that some agencies aren’t very interested in technology until they see real products they can purchase, more or less off the shelf. If this is the case, the information on emerging tech- nologies presented here may be useful primarily to those agencies that are interested in anticipating future technolo- gies but simply lack the resources to do so. This information may also be especially useful to consortia like the developing Applied Transit Technology Center led UTA. With their pooled resources, the Applied Transit Technology Center consortia hopes to devote much more attention to the application of the latest technology than any one transit agency can afford to devote. C H A P T E R 3 Findings on Emerging Technologies 88 Hwang et al., Advanced Public Transportation Systems.

3.2 Emerging Technologies 3.2.1 Methodology The methodology for researching and evaluating emerging information technologies for public transportation consisted of two major components: (1) identification of emerging technologies and (2) determination of their potential value to public transportation. The identification of emerging tech- nologies drew upon a wide range of sources, including the following: • Published transit and transportation reports. • Transportation industry conference proceedings. • Workshop materials, presentations, memoranda, and other internal public transportation agency materials. • Related activities carried out by members of the project team, including the research and technology transfer work per- formed by Battelle for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); technology projects conducted on behalf of local transit agencies; and TCRP and FTA studies, including the FTA Strategic Transit Research Plan. • A wide range of industry and general interest technology periodicals and periodical features, including Passenger Transport, the annual feature stories on “10 Emerging Tech- nologies” in MIT’s Technology Review, and Wired magazine’s annual “NextFest” coverage. In addition to evaluating the extent to which the emerg- ing technologies would impact systems and functions per- formed by public transportation agencies, the project team evaluated the extent to which the emerging technologies might help address major transit challenges or enable hypo- thesized transit advances. Both the list of challenges and list of advances were assembled primarily on the basis of the cumulative perspective and experience of the research team. In identifying challenges or problems, the research team drew heavily on their experience conducting technology- related needs studies for public transportation agencies. The “anticipated major advances” are those developments that many practitioners and technology futurists consider likely to appear in some form, at some time in the future, but which are presently undeveloped enough that the specific nature of the enabling technology and the timing of its ap- pearance remain unclear. Identification of anticipated ad- vances also included a facilitated focus group with members of the research team and other Battelle technology specialists and futurists. The list of challenges and list of advances are not intended to be all encompassing, but rather to capture most of the most important challenges and advances. Chal- lenges that are not directly addressable with technology were not included, nor were advances that would require, or be the result of, any significant changes in basic public trans- portation paradigms, e.g., widespread privatization. Table 5 60 Table 5. Major challenges. Challenge Comments 1. Reduce fuel and labor costs, including vehicle operation, maintenance-related labor, and customer service-related labor. Reducing costs per unit of service provided is critical for many reasons, including to survive possible threats to federal funding, to compete with other transportation alternatives (including privately operated services), and to enable more and better service. 2. Meet the needs of an aging and increasingly diverse (non-English speaking) population. The large, aging Baby Boomer generation has high expectations for travel and is more mobile than seniors of prior generations. 3. Increase transit mode split to make transit an integral and effective means to reduce traffic congestion by improving travel time competitiveness amenities reliability personal security service integration service planning convenience In most places, public transportation’s share of total trips or ability to shift travel from personal automobiles is not high enough to make transit an effective tool to combat the currently very high and growing levels of urban traffic congestion. In order to attract significantly more customers, especially away from personal automobiles, agencies will need to address traditional concerns, such as travel time; “hassles” with fare payment; “confusion” among riders unfamiliar with routes, schedules, and fares; and lack of flexibility. 4. Develop and retain technology- savvy staff. Many public transportation agencies cannot currently offer competitive salaries for positions requiring skills in advanced technology and/or do not provide an organizational culture conducive to developing or retaining superior technology skills. 5. Cost-effectively serve suburban and rural environments. Lower development densities (compared to urban cores) and “many-to-many” origin and destination patterns make it very difficult to cost-effectively provide high levels of service.

61 presents the list of challenges and Table 6 presents the antic- ipated major advances. An additional key criterion in evaluating emerging technolo- gies was that they not be currently in use, even on a demonstra- tion basis, by public transportation agencies (one exception was made to this criterion, as described in Section 3.2.2). On the other end of the development timeline, technologies un- likely to be commercially viable within 10 years were elimi- nated from consideration. 3.2.2 Five High-Potential Technologies to Watch From among the dozens of technologies considered, five technologies were selected as having the greatest potential for public transportation. These high-potential technologies are described in the sections that follow. Each description in- cludes an explanation of what the technology is and how the technology relates to the major transit challenges and antici- pated transit advances identified by the research team (listed in Tables 5 and 6, respectively). 3.2.2.1 Large-Scale Adoption of Hybrid-Electric Transit Buses Explanation of hybrid-electric transit buses. For this technology, an exception was made to the “no deployed tech- nologies” selection criterion described in the methodology (Section 3.2.1)—about 700 hybrid-electric buses are now in operation in North America, including in New York City and King County, Washington.89 89 R. Barnitt and K. Chandler, New York City Transit (NYCT) Hybrid (125 Order) and CNG Transit Buses, Final Evaluation Results, NREL/TP-540-40125 (Washing- ton, D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy, November 2006); King County Depart- ment of Transportation, “News from King County Transportation,” press release (Seattle, WA: May 27, 2004), www.metrokc.gov/kcdot/news/2004/nr040527_ hybrids.htm. Table 6. Anticipated major advances. Advance Comments 1. Automated vehicle operation and maintenance , including driverless operation in non-dedicated rights-of-way (e.g., in mixed traffic). This could reduce labor costs, improve safety, reduce vehicle down-time, and potentially reduce congestion by allowing for shorter following distances. This advance includes vehicles that diagnose and repair themselves (via supporting robotic or other autonomous maintenance systems). 2. A major fuel/propulsion system “break- through.” A significantly cheaper and/or cleaner alternative to today’s commercially viable approaches (diesel, gasoline, natural gas, etc.) that can be widely applied. 3. Ubiquitous, accurate, and real-time, information on, and for, customers. Information on customers would include detailed, accurate, automatically collected information on historic travel patterns (both aggregate and for individual customers) as well as real-time location and trip itineraries. This advance includes not only the data itself but powerful, easy-to-use systems for data analysis. Information for customers would be personalized, essentially accessible anywhere, very accurate, real-time, and provide comprehensive modal options with cost and travel time comparisons. 4. Truly dynamic, seamlessly integrated (across modes, services, and agencies) service. Such a high degree of integration that a customer might not even know they are using multiple services. This would include the following: complete integration of service (seamless transfers); a single payment media/mechanism and transaction; and a single, comprehensive source for customer service and information. Service would be dynamic in the sense of current demand-response services but at a much larger scale and requiring no advance reservations. 5. Ubiquitous, highly effective, and highly automated security screening, surveillance, and response. This advance would feature unobtrusive, highly effective technologies that provide for a very high level of safety and security at facilities and on vehicles. This advance would effectively eliminate traditional fears or concerns on the part of many transit customers and non-customers about their personal safety and security.

The exception was made because of the very dramatic im- pact that widespread adoption of this technology is expected to have on most bus operators. Proliferation of this technol- ogy will impact most transit agencies at least as much as the other truly “new” technologies described here. Also, there are a number of emerging energy storage technologies that will benefit and hasten hybrid adoption. Finally, the extensive on- board computer systems associated with hybrids create great potential for more extensive on-board monitoring than is possible with diesel or compressed natural gas vehicles. In the last several years, high fuel costs, concern about the dependence on foreign oil, and concern about air quality have heightened interest in alternative fuel sources and propulsion systems for public transportation. There is considerable dis- agreement among experts regarding which fuel/propulsion technologies will become widely adopted and, especially, when they will become adopted. However, it is the opinion of many experts that within 10 years, hybrid-electric heavy-duty tran- sit vehicles are the most likely fuel/propulsion technology to significantly penetrate and benefit public transportation. A few areas with truly extreme air quality concerns, namely in California, continue to move forward rapidly in the develop- ment and demonstration of fuel cell buses.90 However, in areas with less dire air quality conditions, the high cost of fuel cells and major hydrogen production challenges are likely to delay any significant penetration of public transportation by fuel cells to beyond the 10-year horizon, if ever. According to one FTA report: fuel cells are seen as the long-term goal by many . . . although there are some in the transit world who see fuel cells as unlikely to ever be commercially viable for transit. For those who see them as the long-term solution for vehicle propulsion, the time- frame for commercial products is seen as 10 years at a minimum, with perhaps commercial fuel cells not being available for an- other 20 years.91 And another source has commented that fuel cells, while a promising technology, could take more than 50 years to have a significant impact on gasoline consumption . . . The estimates assume that competitive fuel cells will be avail- able within 15 years, an achievement that will require improve- ments, for example, in hydrogen storage and production and fuel cell costs.92 The prognosis for transit vehicles fueled directly by hydro- gen (as opposed to hydrogen fuel cells) is even less optimistic, as there are serious doubts about whether hydrogen will ever be a feasible fuel for vehicles.93 The feasibility and benefits of hybrid-electric buses, on the other hand, have been well established in field deployments, and these vehicles have moved beyond demonstration into commercial production.94 Hybrid-electrics do not require a new fueling infrastructure; demonstrate improved accelera- tion, reduced noise and vibration, and less brake wear and maintenance; are comparable to or better than compressed natural gas and diesel buses in the output of regulated emis- sions; and are demonstrating 10 percent to 50 percent better fuel economy. There are a number of major challenges asso- ciated with hybrid-electrics, however. These include high capital costs for the vehicles (60 percent to 80 percent higher than comparable diesel buses) and the high cost and uncer- tain lifespan of batteries. There are several emerging technologies in the area of en- ergy storage (e.g., batteries) that hold promise for addressing some of the battery-related concerns with hybrid-electric tran- sit buses and thus could increase the rate of hybrid-electric transit bus adoption. Battery advances include several im- provements on conventional lithium ion batteries that will reduce cost, increase electrical current, and improve safety. One such advance is the lithium iron phosphate battery, re- cently debuted in a line of power tools and expected to have application to hybrid-electric vehicles. The lithium iron phos- phate battery would be one-fifth the weight of today’s hybrid vehicle batteries; could withstand 10 times more recharging; could be recharged much more quickly; and, being very chem- ically stable, would be much less likely to leak or explode.95 These batteries also hold the potential for making “plug-in” hybrid vehicles—vehicles with batteries that can be recharged by plugging them into a wall socket—much more feasible.96 Another promising improvement to lithium ion batteries uses lithium, nickel, and manganese and provides much greater 62 90 K. Chandler and L. Eudy, Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority and San Mateo County Transit District, Fuel Cell Transit Buses: Evaluation Results, NREL/TP-560-40615 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy, November 2006); WestStart-CALSTART, “FTA Provides Funding for Advanced Fuel Cell Bus Projects to CALSTART,” press release (October 12, 2006), www.calstart.org/ aboutus/nl_detail.php?id=87. 91 L. Callaghan and S. Lynch, Analysis of Electric Drive Technologies for Transit Applications: Battery-Electric, Hybrid-Electric, and Fuel Cells, FTA-MA-26-7100- 05.1, prepared by the Northeast Advanced Vehicle Consortium for the FTA, U.S. DOT (Washington, D.C.: August 2005), www.navc.org/Electric_Drive_Bus_ Analysis.pdf. 92 K. Bullis, “Hydrogen Reality Check,” Technology Review (May 5, 2005), www.technologyreview.com/Energy/16777/. 93 D. Appell, “Hydrogen Hype,” Technology Review (October 12, 2004), www. trblogs.com/blog/post.aspx?bid=293&bpid=15343; D. Talbot, “BMW’s Hydro- gen Hopes,” Technology Review (September 22, 2006), www.technologyreview. com/read_article.aspx?ch=specialsections&sc=transportation&id=17526&a=f. 94 Chandler and Eudy, Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority. 95 K. Bullis, “More Powerful Batteries,” Technology Review (November 21, 2005), www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=15913&ch=nanotech. 96 K. Bullis, “Making Electric Vehicles Practical,” Technology Review (November 29, 2006), www.technologyreview.com/Nanotech/17837/.

63 storage capacity.97 Ultracapacitors or supercapacitors are emerging alternatives to batteries that have the potential to be 10 times more powerful than batteries and actually outlive a vehicle. A recent breakthrough is the use of carbon nanotubes, a nanotechnology (see Section 3.2.2.2) that increases the sur- face area of electrodes and thereby the ability to store energy.98 Finally, in addition to the emerging energy storage tech- nologies, there are aspects of hybrid-electric bus technology that increase the potential of additional technology applica- tions. Specifically, the complex and extensive on-board com- puter monitoring system required in hybrids creates oppor- tunities to do much more extensive on-board monitoring than is now possible. A current constraint on such monitoring is the lack of a single, comprehensive on-board monitoring system. Most current vehicle component monitoring systems have their own configuration and cannot easily be integrated. Relationship to major transit challenges and anticipated transit advances. The expected major shift to hybrid-electric buses, spurred by continuing advances in energy storage tech- nologies, obviously relates most closely to the “major fuel/ propulsion system ‘break-through’ ” major advance listed in Table 6. In terms of addressing transit challenges listed in Table 5, this technology fits most closely with the “reduce fuel and labor costs” challenge, although cost savings in fuel (due to greater fuel economy) might very well be offset by higher vehicle purchase and maintenance costs. 3.2.2.2 Nanotechnology Explanation of nanotechnology. Nanotechnology is an area of applied science and technology that covers a wide range of topics and entails controlling and exploiting the structure of matter on a scale below 100 nanometers. There are a number of nanoelectronic applications, ranging from those that make solar power cost-effective to those that will greatly increase the power and reduce the size and power consumption of microprocessors. The potential benefits to transit, especially of the more powerful microprocessors, are significant and cover a wide range of applications, including office computing, sensing, and two-way exchange of information with customers. Many of the potential advances associated with nano- technology utilize carbon nanotubes, cylindrical arrays of individual carbon molecules that are very strong and excep- tionally good conductors of heat and electricity. For example, in theory, metallic nanotubes (carbon nanotubes are either metallic or semiconductors) can have an electrical current density more than 1,000 times greater than metals such as sil- ver and copper. There have been breakthroughs in both ap- plications for carbon nanotube technology and processes for manufacturing them. An example of an emerging application is quantum wires, wires spun from carbon nanotubes that could carry electricity farther and more efficiently and trans- form the electrical power grid.99 Such an advance could re- duce the cost of electricity for transit. Another carbon nanotube application is universal memory. Universal memory is an ultradense, low-power data storage medium that encodes bits using the physical orientation of nanoscale structures rather than using an electric charge on a circuit element, as with conventional electronic memory. This technology could eventually allow a much greater amount of data to be stored on computers and mobile devices.100 For ex- ample, experts estimate that within 20 years the contents of all the DVDs ever made could be stored on a laptop com- puter. Such dramatic computer memory advances will im- pact a wide range of transit computing applications: schedul- ing, dispatch, customer information, on-board diagnostics and computerized maintenance systems, and still-emerging tran- sit applications of robotic and virtual reality technologies. Emerging technologies that are facilitating the manufac- ture of carbon nanotubes, thus speeding the benefits of nano- tube technology applications, include an etching process that can be integrated with the methods used to carve out tradi- tional silicon-based computer chips.101 There are a number of nanotechnology developments that hold the potential to dramatically increase the cost-effectiveness of solar power, providing transit a non-polluting and renew- able energy alternative. For example, Nanosolar, a startup in Palo Alto, California, has developed a way to mass produce thin-film solar cells using an affordable printing technology similar to the kind used to print newspapers.102 Other re- searchers have developed “quantum dots” from heated silicon that can be used to make ultra-efficient solar cells.103 A sign of the increasing viability of solar power is 97 K. Bullis, “Battery Breakthrough,” Technology Review (February 21, 2006), www.technologyreview.com/printer_friendly_article.aspx?id=16384. 98 P. Fairley, “Ultrahybrid,” Technology Review (September 2001), www.technology review.com/printer_friendly_article.aspx?id=12558; K. Bullis, “The Ultra Battery,” Technology Review (February 13, 2006), www.technologyreview.com/ printer_friendly_article.aspx?id=16326. 99 E. Jonietz, “10 Emerging Technologies Special Report: Quantum Wires,” Tech- nology Review (May 2005), www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?ch= infotech&sc=&id=14407&pg=2. 100 T. Huang, “10 Emerging Technologies Special Report: Universal Memory,” Technology Review (May 2005), www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?ch= infotech&sc=&id=14407&pg=6. 101 P. Patel-Predd, “A Step Closer to Nanotube Computers,” Technology Review (November 2006), www.technologyreview.com/printer_friendly_article.aspx? id=17785. 102 K. Bullis, “Large-Scale, Cheap Solar Electricity,” Technology Review (June 23, 2006), www.technologyreview.com/printer_friendly_article.aspx?id=17025. 103 K. Greene, “More Efficient Solar Cells,” Technology Review (October 26, 2006), www.technologyreview.com/printer_friendly_article.aspx?id=17664.

Google’s conversion of its headquarters to run partly on solar power.104 Relationship to major transit challenges and anticipated transit advances. Nanotechnology is having, and will con- tinue to have, dramatic impacts throughout society and will almost certainly play an important part in nearly all of the an- ticipated major transit advances. These advances include in- creasing automation of vehicle operations, ubiquitous in- formation exchange with customers, seamless integration of services, and ubiquitous security screening and surveillance. Further, nanotechnology will likely help agencies meet the needs of older and non-English speaking customers and pro- mote transit ridership by improving convenience and security. 3.2.2.3 Mechatronics Explanation of mechatronics. Mechatronics entails the integration of traditional mechanical systems with electronic components and intelligent software control. The term refers to the synergy achieved through the integration of mechani- cal, electronic, and information technologies. Examples of this integration in vehicle brakes include replacing hydraulic cylinders with electromechanical actuators, replacing brake fluid lines with wires, and using software that will mediate be- tween the driver’s foot and the action that slows the vehicle. Increasingly, researchers are coming to believe that mecha- tronic systems can be made much safer and effective than tra- ditional mechanical systems. A large part of the safety benefit derives from the ability to build in fault diagnoses and fault tolerance. Essentially, linking mechanical systems of the type found throughout transit vehicles with electronic systems unlocks the potential to monitor and optimize the perfor- mance of the systems using sophisticated computers. The potential benefit to public transportation of the contin- ued evolution of mechatronic systems is significant. Such sys- tems could improve fuel economy, performance, safety, and maintenance. Mechatronics also plays a central role in a wide range of vehicle safety systems that link electronic sensor data with actuation of mechanical systems like steering and brakes. Thus, mechatronics are critical in the evolution toward a heav- ily computer-assisted, or even autonomous, transit bus. An example of a recent innovation in mechatronics is the development of software by a German university that identi- fies and corrects for flaws in real time, thereby improving the performance of mechatronic braking systems.105 The soft- ware tracks data from three sensors: one that detects the flow of electrical current to the brake actuator, a second that tracks the actuator’s position, and a third that measures its clamp- ing force. The software analyzes those inputs to detect faults and alert drivers to the need for service. Relationship to major transit challenges and anticipated transit advances. In regard to anticipated major transit ad- vances, the greatest impact of mechatronics is likely to be in enabling increasing levels of automation in vehicle operation. Among the transit problems, mechatronics’ greatest potential may lie in its ability to minimize operating costs by improv- ing maintenance effectiveness. 3.2.2.4 Speech Recognition and Language Translation Explanation of speech recognition and language trans- lation. Speech recognition and automated language trans- lation have been around for some time but the problem has been that they often do not work very well. In the case of speech recognition, systems like airline and banking IVR systems perform very well only when there are a limited number of potential user inputs. The poor performance of automated language translators is apparent to anyone with much experience with online translators like AltaVista’s Babel Fish (http://babelfish.altavista.com/tr). Translating the phrase “Which bus should I take to get to the Downtown Transit Center and when will it arrive?” from English to Korean and then back to English yields “Me other Oh! under it boils which bus it gets in the feeling mobile center and to respect it time it arrives to respect?” When voice recognition is combined with language translation, the chal- lenges are compounded. There are a number of advances underway in speech recognition and language translation that are expected to significantly improve performance. Fast, highly accurate speech recognition and language translation could revolu- tionize many aspects of public transportation operations, including the way transit passengers interact with cus- tomer information systems to perform complex operations like itinerary planning. Advances could also improve the interfaces between transit personnel and the many com- puterized systems they interact with both on board and in the office. Improvements in language translation could greatly enhance transit’s ability to provide quality service to the increasing number of customers who have limited English skills. One example of recent advances in voice activation is the research that Nokia and MIT are conducting to teach cell phones to take commands in natural language, that is, teach- ing cell phones to understand and respond to written com- 64 104 Associated Press, “Google to Convert HQ to Solar Power,” Boston.com (October 16, 2006), www.boston.com/news/science/articles/2006/10/16/google_to_convert_ hq_to_solar_power/. 105 “10 Emerging Technologies That Will Change the World: Mechatronics,” Tech- nology Review (February 2003), www.technologyreview.com/printer_friendly_ article.aspx?id=13060.

65 mands typed in English.106 Nokia’s natural language technol- ogy utilizes a software system developed at MIT that interprets human questions and finds answers using websites. The soft- ware is unique because it interprets human language rather than looking for keywords. The key to the interpretation is the breakdown of English sentences into components: ob- jects, properties, and values. When perfected, the Nokia-MIT system will vastly simplify user interfaces with handheld de- vices, like cell phones, allowing users to access many func- tions and make complicated requests without wading through layers of menus. The language commands will also enable people to have their various technologies communicate with other devices. For instance, an individual could tell his/her phone to retrieve route and schedule information from a transit website, and the phone would automatically coordi- nate the information transfer. Google is also contributing to the advances in voice activa- tion and speech recognition.107 Google was recently granted a patent for a voice-enabled search engine and has hired several well-known speech-recognition specialists, developments that suggest that a new product is in development. Google’s voice search patent takes a handful of word and phrase possibilities and runs them through the powerful Google search engines. Rather than relying on perfect voice recognition accuracy, the voice-enabled search engine relies on Google’s powerful search algorithm to focus on the most likely possibilities. Google is also developing techniques for translating lan- guages and has earned high marks for accuracy in National In- stitute of Standards and Technology challenges.108 The Google approach isolates short sequences of words and then searches current translations to see how those sequences have been translated before. The system finds several different transla- tions and identifies the most probable translation—again, leveraging the powerful statistical approach that drives Google’s web search engine. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is leading a major effort to improve machine language trans- lation that incorporates speech recognition, translation, and meaning summarization.109 DARPA’s aim is to create a real- time translation software called GALE, for Global Autonomous Language Exploitation. DARPA has engaged three teams, or “contestants,” to work separately on the project, one of which is IBM. The intent is for the translation system to listen to TV broadcasts or phone conversations and read websites in Ara- bic and Chinese, translate them into English, and summarize the key elements. Relationship to major transit challenges and anticipated transit advances. Anticipated breakthroughs in speech recognition and language translation would most directly impact the anticipated major transit advances associated with ubiquitous two-way information exchange with customers and seamlessly integrated, dynamic transit services. In terms of transit problems and challenges, these technologies hold the greatest potential in the areas of meeting the needs of aging and non-English speaking customers and in reducing cus- tomer service labor costs. To a somewhat lesser extent, these technologies would contribute to improvements in conven- ience that could translate into increases ridership/mode split. 3.2.2.5 Pervasive Wireless and Cognitive Radio Explanation of pervasive wireless and cognitive radio. Pervasive wireless describes a future condition when a wide range of mobile, radio-equipped devices—cell phones, com- puters, and various sensors—will be able to form ad hoc communications networks.110 Cognitive radio is one of the methods for doing so. Cognitive radio and the broader promise of a pervasive wireless network would revolution- ize transit agencies’ ability to communicate with their cus- tomers, with their various mobile and fixed assets, and with the assets of other transit agencies. Among the advances supporting the development of per- vasive wireless is the development of a radio test grid by Rutgers University. The grid allows researchers to evaluate alternative methods for forming the ad hoc networks that en- able pervasive wireless communications. The Rutgers radio grid is the first large-scale shared research facility for study- ing multiple wireless devices and network technologies. One of the primary challenges to be overcome is that different devices communicate using different radio standards: RFID tags use one set of standards, cell phones another, and Wi-Fi devices yet another standard. Standardization of protocols, enabled by advances such as the Rutgers radio test grid, is a key step in the ultimate realization of pervasive wireless. Cognitive radio is a way to maximize the limited band- width—radio spectrum—available for wireless data commu- nication, an increasingly necessary strategy given the rapidly expanding number of wireless devices in use by transit cus- tomers and transit agencies. The main problem, according 106 K. Bourzac, “Nokia Phones Go to Natural Language Class,” Technology Review (April 27, 2006), www.technologyreview.com/printer_friendly_article.aspx? id=16745. 107 K. Green, “The Search for Voice Activation,” Technology Review (April 21, 2006), www.technologyreview.com/printer_friendly_article.aspx?id=16725. 108 S. Ornes, “Not Lost in Translation,” Technology Review (November 16, 2006), www.technologyreview.com/printer_friendly_article.aspx?id=17793. 109 Associated Press, “Building the Government’s Translation Machine, 1 Year at a Time.” nwi.com (November 4, 2006), http://nwitimes.com/articles/2006/ 11/05/business/business/0335e24cc9e7e0a48625721b0074b699.txt. 110 N. Savage, “10 Emerging Technologies Special Report: Pervasive Wireless,” Technology Review (March/April 2006), www.technologyreview.com/printer_ friendly_article.aspx?id=16476.

to researchers, is not the lack of bandwidth, but the way the spectrum is used.111 Spectrum is allocated by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) into frequency ranges corresponding to various types of devices. At any given time, at any given location, a large percentage of a given frequency may be available even though the frequency range is reserved. Cognitive radios figure out which frequencies are available and pick one to transmit and receive data, taking advantage of locally available bandwidth that may fall outside the range officially reserved for the device. Researchers at the University of California, Santa Barbara, are trying to improve cognitive radio by teaching the devices to negotiate with other devices in their vicinity. In their scheme, the FCC-designated owner of the spectrum gets priority, but other devices can divide up the unused spectrum among themselves. Because negotiation between the devices itself uses up spectrum, the researchers are using rules from “game theory”—a type of mathematical modeling used to find opti- mal solutions—and have designed software that makes the devices follow the rules. Rather than telling a neighboring de- vice what it is doing, each radio observes what its neighbors are doing and makes its own decisions. Cognitive radios are already becoming commercial. Intel has plans to build reconfigurable chips that will use software to analyze their environments and select the best protocols and frequencies for data transmission. Nokia is also working to incorporate cognitive radio capabilities in their cell phones; they say that these capabilities would make it possible to transfer a movie from your PC to your phone in 2 seconds.112 Nokia also recently announced a new short-range wireless technology called Wibree, which is similar to Bluetooth, but consumes less power. Wibree would enable a phone to act like a node in wireless sensor networks, collecting informa- tion such as location, aggregating data from nearby sensors, processing it, and sending it to other sensors and phones via Wibree or Wi-Fi networks. Relationship to major transit challenges and anticipated transit advances. Cognitive radio and its contribution to per- vasive wireless networks have the potential to enable several of the anticipated major transit advances: ubiquitous, real- time, two-way information exchange with customers; dynamic, seamlessly integrated service; and ubiquitous, highly automated security screening, surveillance, and response. In terms of major challenges faced by transit, these technologies will likely contribute to ridership and mode split increases by improving convenience, service integration, and personal security. 3.2.3 Other Promising Emerging Technologies The five technologies identified in Section 3.2.2 are con- sidered to have particular potential because they either impact many areas of functionality important to transit— such as nanotechnology (sensing, communications, and data processing)—or because they are expected to have a partic- ularly significant impact. There are, however, many addi- tional emerging technologies that, given the inherent unpre- dictability of the future and the challenges of predicting the timing and nature of technology impacts, may ultimately be as important to transit. A number of these additional technologies are highlighted in this section. 3.2.3.1 Flexible Displays and Microprocessors Transit travelers have expressed an interest in viewing more information with better displays on their PDAs. Xerox and E-Ink are developing electronic paper technology, which will instantly display information on various tablet personal computer-like surfaces in the form of text and graphics. It is expected that this technology will be available in the next 5 years. People currently dependent on PDA screen displays can use electronic papers for larger displays of real-time in- formation provided by transit agencies.113 A Japanese en- terprise, Fujitsu, has already developed bendable color electronic paper.114 Related advances include “stretchable silicon,” a practice that utilizes ultra-thin strips of silicon—only a few hundred nanometers thick—to contain high-performance conforma- ble circuits. This advance will mean that not only can passive displays be made flexible (e.g., electronic paper), but com- puter chips themselves can be integrated into fabric-like ma- terials that could conform to pliable surfaces.115 This could mean, for example, that communications and sensors, in- cluding sensors for explosives and other security applications, could be integrated into the seat coverings in a transit vehicle. 3.2.3.2 Improved Vehicle Navigation There are a number of emerging technologies that will ad- dress current accuracy and signal loss problems with GPSs for transit. For example, pseudo-satellites, often called pseudo- 66 111 N. Savage, “10 Emerging Technologies Special Report: Cognitive Radio,” Technology Review (March/April 2006), www.technologyreview.com/read_ article.aspx?ch=specialsections&sc=emergingtech&id=16471. 112 Ibid. 113 L. A. Ragaza, “Technologies to Watch: Electronic Paper,” PCMag.com (September 4, 2001), www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1759,32904,00.asp. 114 Fujitsu, “Fujitsu Develops World’s First Film Substrate-Based Bendable Color Electronic Paper Featuring Image Memory Function,” press release, www. fujitsu.com/global/news/pr/archives/month/2005/20050713-01.html. 115 K. Greene, “10 Emerging Technologies Special Report: Stretchable Silicon.” Technology Review (March/April 2006), http://www.technologyreview.com/ article/16477/.

67 lites, can help in overcoming such navigation problems.116 Pseudolites are ground-based transmitters of GPS-like signals and can help in navigation by either complementing GPS (compensating for the GPS signal loss) or by completely re- placing the GPS satellite constellation. Alternate research in the field of robotics has identified the possibility of using neural network-based tools for navigation. Neural network algorithms determine a vehicle position and angular orienta- tion (direction) of the vehicle with the help of on-board range sensors. Range sensors measure the distance between an ob- ject and the sensor. This navigation technique does not need any external reflector, active beacon, or buried wire, and the system automatically maintains calibration as it moves through the environment.117 Another advance from the field of robotics that will help fill GPS signal loss gaps utilizes advanced processing of stereo video images.118 This advance, not yet published, is being led by researchers at Sarnoff, in Princeton, New Jersey. The tech- nology provides excellent accuracy—to within 1 meter after 1⁄2-kilometer of moving through so-called GPS-denied envi- ronments. The approach, which uses four small cameras, is be- lieved to represent a five-fold increase in accuracy. Solving the problem of areas of GPS signal loss will facilitate the applica- tion of GPS to safety-sensitive applications like lane keeping. A related development in robotic vision that could enable greater use of robotics in vehicle and facility maintenance is called selective-attention modeling. In this technique, robots are programmed to try to evaluate scenes, as humans are believed to do.119 In this approach, robots focus on anomalous sights in basically the same way a human brain does when scanning a “what’s wrong with this picture?” type of puzzle. 3.2.3.3 Artificial Intelligence Artificial intelligence (AI)-based technologies, such as ma- chine learning methods that include neural networks and fuzzy logic, promise benefits for transit. These technologies will be very helpful in processing noisy ITS data (both non- imagery and imagery) and will help in data analysis and deci- sion making.120 Bayesian Machine Learning, a probabilistic machine learning approach that deduces likely relationships from a large body of data, could also have applications in transit.121 For example, it could be used to support auto- mation of the personalization of passenger information by identifying patterns and preferences reflected in past inquiries or travel itineraries. 3.2.3.4 Silicon Photonics Current IT infrastructure provides high-speed Internet using a fiber-optic cable network, but the data transfer inside computer elements is still slow due to copper wire that is used within circuits. Faster data communication in and between computer chips will be achieved by evolution of new tech- nologies such as silicon photonics.122 This technology will offer optical communications between silicon chips instead of the current communication through electrical signals. Op- tical communication will be possible by enabling silicon to emit photons. Although photon-based interconnects are ex- pected to be available in about 5 years, light-wave communi- cation between components on the same chip will be possi- ble only in the long term. Another emerging technology that will increase the speed of communications is microfluidic optical fibers. These em- ploy tiny droplets of fluid inside fiber-optic channels to im- prove data flow, speeding transmission and improving relia- bility.123 Fibers are bored with microscopic channels; pumping in various tiny amounts of fluids can change the properties of the fiber, allowing for corrections to error-causing distortions and directing data flows more efficiently. This alternative is cheaper than adding more bandwidth and would allow tran- sit agencies to get the most out of their fiber investments. 3.2.3.5 Data Security Increased reliance on digital systems and wireless com- munications will make data security increasingly impor- tant. A single password hack can corrupt an entire system. For example, on-board Wi-Fi Internet capability needs to be secured (better than the currently available Wired Equiv- alent Privacy [WEP]–based encryption) so that users can- not get into the wireless local area network (LAN) of the agency. Quantum cryptography, developed at IBM’s T. J. Watson Research Center, can help with much better en- cryption. Moreover, IBM, with the help of the University of 116 Y. Toba, M. Saitou, N. Yanagihara, and M. Watanabe, “Basic Verification Concerning High Precision Positioning Detection Using Pseudolite,” Proceed- ings of the 9th ITS World Congress (Washington, D.C.: ITS America, 2002). 117 www.nttc.edu/techmart. 118 T. Mashberg, “GPS That Never Fails,” Technology Review (November 30, 2006), www.technologyreview.com/Infotech/17841/?a=f. 119 J. C. Diop, “Robotic Vision,” Technology Review (October 2002), www. technologyreview.com/Infotech/12976/?a=f. 120 Z Solutions, Inc., “A Manager’s Guide to Neural Networks,” white paper (Atlanta, GA: 2004), www.zsolutions.com/pdfs/amanager.pdf. 121 D. Koller, “10 Emerging Technologies That Will Change Your World: Bayesian Machine Learning,” Technology Review (February 2004), www.technology review.com/Infotech/13438/page5/. 122 N. Savage, “10 Emerging Technologies: Silicon Photonics,” Technology Review (May 2005), www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?ch=infotech&sc=&id= 14407&pg=3. 123 J. Rogers, “10 Emerging Technologies That Will Change Your World: Micro- fluidic Optical Fiber,” Technology Review (February 2004), www.technology review.com/read_article.aspx?ch=infotech&sc=&id=13438&pg=10.

New Mexico, is also developing artificial immunology to protect computers from viruses. This concept will model immune systems based on human biology. These technolo- gies should be available by 2020.124 3.2.3.6 Terahertz Radiation Terahertz waves could improve the speed of wireless communications and security screening. Terahertz radiation— T-rays—operate in the deep-infrared region just before wavelengths stretch into microwaves. T-rays are able to eas- ily penetrate many common materials without the medical risks of X-rays. They promise to transform fields like airport and transit security, revealing not only the shape but also the composition of hidden objects, from explosives to cancers.125 A very recent breakthrough will increase the ability to control terahertz waves, making for clearer images and faster wireless communications.126 68 124 S. Carroll, “Technologies to Watch: Information Security,” PCMAG.COM (September 4, 2001), www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1759,32904,00.asp. 125 D. Arnone, “10 Emerging Technologies That Will Change Your World: T-Rays.” Technology Review (February 2004), www.technologyreview.com/ Infotech/13438/page6. 126 D. Graham-Rowe, “Taming the Terahertz,” Technology Review (November 30, 2006).

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TRB’s Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) Report 84, e-Transit: Electronic Business Strategies for Public Transportation Volume 8, Improving Public Transportation Technology Implementations and Anticipating Emerging Technologies explores the value of current technologies used in public transportation, examines methods for improving the success of technology implementation, and reviews five promising emerging technologies with application for transit agencies.

The declining costs of communications, data storage, and data retrieval are accelerating the opportunities spawned by the Internet and other information and communications technologies. Choosing and sequencing investments in technologies, processes, and people to reduce costs and increase productivity present challenges to the transit manager, who must weigh the costs, benefits, and risks of changing the ways services are delivered. To assist in meeting such challenges, the TCRP Report 84: e-Transit: Electronic Business Strategies for Public Transportation series documents principles, techniques, and strategies that are used in electronic business for public transportation.

Appendices for TCRP Report 84, Volume 8 include the following:

* Appendix A: Summary of the Transit Agency Leader Focus Group

* Appendix B: Summary of the ITS America 2005 Transit GM Summit

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