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Summary of Recommendations
Human activities are currently leacling to changes in the global
environment at virtually unprecedented rates, with potentially severe
consequences for our future welfare. Increases in carbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases, concerns for climate change, the appearance
of the antarctic ozone hole and worldwide depletion of the ozone
shield, tropical deforestation, and a host of other changes in our
environment have captured the attention of scientists, the public,
and policymakers. The pro~olem of global environmental change is
crucial and urgent.
For scientists, understanding the changes now in progress both
natural and anthropogenic and predicting their future course are
unprecedented challenges. New capabilities for observing the earth
and new understanding of natural processes have led to a new con-
ception of the earth as an integrated whole and to the development
of evolving, extremely broad research programs on global change.
Such programs must draw upon the capabilities of scientists in many
disciplines and many nations and must build upon the foundation
provided by many ongoing national and international programs.
In the United States, the program on global change includes the
study of biogeochemical dynamics, ecological systems and (lynamics,
climatic and hydrologic systems, human interactions, earth system
history, solid-earth processes, and solar influences. The fundamental
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paradigm is that the prediction and ultimate management of envi-
ronmenta] problems inescapably require development of a new earth
system science aimed to improve understanding of the earth as an
integrated whole.
In the international scientific community, the International Coun-
ciT of Scientific Unions has organized the International Geosphere-
Biosphere Program (IGBP) to address the problems of global change.
The objective of the IGBP is
to describe and understand the interactive physical, chemical,
and biological processes that regulate the total earth system, the
unique environment that it provides for life, the changes that
are occurring in this system, and the manner in which they are
influenced by human activities.
The TGBP is currently in its preparatory phase, during which
the program's goals and research components are slowly evolving and
coming into focus.
In this report, a limited number of high-priority research ini-
tiatives are recommended for early implementation as part of the
U.S. contribution to the preparatory phase of the IGBP. The rec-
ommendations are based on the committee's analysis of the most
critical gaps, not being addressed by existing programs, in the scien-
tific knowledge needed to understand the changes that are occurring
in the earth system on time scales of decades to centuries. These
initiatives wiD build upon the capabilities of the U.S. program in
global change.
With this framework in mind, the committee recommends the
following:
1. Research initiatives: The committee recommends that the
early U.S. contributions to the IGBP should focus on the following
five research initiatives that address key relationships in the earth
system:
.
Water-energy-vegetation interactions to develop global mod-
els of the response of terrestrial ecosystems to changes in climate,
land and water use, and related factors, and to determine the recip-
rocal effect of such changes in terrestrial ecosystems on the climate
system on regional and global scales. This research initiative requires
an integrated approach of observations, experiments, and model de-
velopment.
~ Fluxes of materials between terrestrial ecosystems and the
atmosphere and ocean to (1) improve understanding of ecosystem
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processes most important for determining fluxes of radiatively active
gases between the land and atmosphere, in order to predict how
changes in climate and land use after gas emissions, and (2) improve
understanding of the effects of land use changes on nutrient trans-
fer to river, estuarine, and ocean systems, especially to understand
consequent feedbacks to climate through, for example, Tong-term
changes in ocean productivity.
~ Biogeochemical dynamics of ocean interactions with climate
in order to predict effects of climate change on ocean biogeochemical
cycles and the interactions of such cycles with climate via release and
absorption of radiatively active gases. The ocean's capacity to se-
quester or release such gases for example, carbon dioxide or organic
sulfur species is directly and indirectly influenced by climate.
Earth system history and modeling to document changes in
atmospheric composition, climate, and human activities to improve
and validate models of global change. A focus on periods of rapid
rates of change wid provide insights into those changes that can be
expected to occur with rates predicted for the future.
~ Human interactions with glo~oal change to analyze changes
in human land use, energy use, and industrial processes that drive
changes in the earth system. Documentation of changes in such
human activities over the last several hundred years and construction
of future scenarios of human activities that contribute to global
change will be part of the effort.
Steering groups of experts should be formed to develop detailed
research plans for each of the five initiatives proposed above, with
the committee assuring coordination and integration.
2. Supporting research: The U.S. component of the IGBP
should serve to strengthen, coordinate, and enhance support for
ongoing supportive activities in the earth sciences such as the World
Climate Research Program, the Global Tropospheric Chemistry Pro-
gram, the Joint Global Oceanic Flux Stucly, and related cliscipline-
oriented research.
3. I'ong-term measurements: In order to document global
change and provide a basis for the IGBP research program as a
whole, a Tong-term commitment from all relevant agencies for sus-
tained Tong-term measurements of key variables is required. An im-
portant element is an integrated Earth Observing System program
to coordinate space-based observations.
4. Data and information systems: All components of the IGBP,
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both U.S. and international, wiD require effective data and informa-
tion systems, capable of making available to research investigators
contemporary space- and ground-basec3 data from observations and
experiments as well as historical data sets. Establishing and main-
taining an effective system for the diverse types of data that will be
generated by the IGBP require an innovative, flexible, and carefully
conceived approach. A Global Information System Test should be
implemented to test the end-to-end performance of the information
system.
5. International Geosphere-Biosphere Research and Training
Centers: A limited number of International Geosphere-Biosphere
Research and Training Centers should be established around the
world as major foci for international cooperation in research and
training for the study of global change. The centers would serve as ap-
propriate to provide bases for large-scale manipulative experiments,
to establish links with other international and national research and
observational networks, and to serve as central repositories for ob-
servational and experimental results.
6. Interagency coordination: Interagency coordination between
the relevant U.S. agencies for implementation of the U.S. component
of the IGBP is essential to the effective management of the com-
plex program. Existing mechanisms for such coordination under the
Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering, and Technol-
ogy (FCCSET) Committee on Earth Sciences should continue to be
strengthened, and the adequacy of this mechanism to the task at
hand should be periodically reviewed.
7. Coordination of international activities: Innovative mech-
anisms should be developed for coordination of related activities
of international, intergovernmental and nongovernmental organiza-
tions, and many national groups of all kinds, with the IGBP. The
International Council of Scientific Unions should urgently address
the international institutional arrangements for the IGBP.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
terrestrial ecosystems
