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Tows rd a n
Unclerstanclin~ of
Global Change
Initial Priorities for U.S.
Contributions to the international
Geosphere-Biosphere Program
Committee on Global Change
(U.S. National Committee for the IGBP)
of the
Commission on Life Sciences
Commission on Physical Sciences.
Mathematics, and Resources
Office of International Affairs
Commission on Behavioral and
Social Sciences and Education
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1988
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board
of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National
Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The
members of the panel responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and
with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a grcup other than the authors according to procedures
approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of
Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of
distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance
of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the
charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to
advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president
of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of
the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is
autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National
Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National
Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering program aimed at meeting national needs,
encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr.
Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences
to secure the services of e mnent members of appropriate professions in the examination of
policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility
given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the
federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and
education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in
1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes
of furthering knowledge sand advising the federal gove~nent. Functioning in accordance with
general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating
agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in
providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities.
The Council is administered jointly by both Academies Ed the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank
Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice-~ainnan, respectively, of the National
Research Council.
The work was sponsored by the National Science Foundation, National Aeronautics
and Space Aim infiltration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Arlmini~tration, United States
Geological Survey, United States Department of Agriculture, Office of Naval Research and
Department of Energy. Contract No. OCE 8713699.
Available in limited supply from
Committee on Global Change
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20418
Printed in the United States of America
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COMMITTEE ON GLOBAL CHANGE
(U.S. National Committee for the IGBP)
Harold Mooney, Stanford University, chairman
D. James Baker, Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc.
Francis P. Bretherton, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Kevin C. Burke, Lunar and Planetary Institute
William C. Clark, Harvard University
Margaret B. Davis, University of Minnesota
Robert E. Dickinson, National Center for Atmospheric Research
John Imbrie, Brown University
Thomas F. Malone, St. Joseph College
Michael B. McElroy, Harvard University
Berrien Moore TIT, University of New Hampshire
Ellen S. Mosely-Thompson, Ohio State University
Paul G. Risser, University of New Mexico
Ex-Officio Members
U.S. Members, ICSU Special Committee for the IGBP
John A. Eddy, National Center for Atmospheric Research
James J. McCarthy, Harvard University
S. {chtiaque Rasool, National Aeronautics and Space
Administration
CPSMR Liaison Representative
Robert E. Sievers, University of Colorado
Staff
John S. Perry, Staff Director
Ruth S. DeFries, Staff Officer
. . .
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AD HOC COMMITTEE FOR
OVERSIGHT OF THE COMMITTEE ON
GLOBAL CHANGE
Norman Hackerman, Robert A. Welch Foundation (chairman,
Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and
Resources), chairman
Robert McC. Adams, Smithsonian Institution (chairman,
Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education)
John Dowling, Harvard University (chairman, Commission on Life
Sciences)
William Gordon, Rice University (foreign secretary, National
Academy of Sciences)
Staff
John Burris, executive director, Commission on Life Sciences (from
July 1988)
Robert Caplan, executive director, Commission on Behavioral and
Social Sciences and Education (from July 1988)
Brett Hammond, acting executive director, Commission on
Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education (unti! July 1988)
Raphael Kasper, executive director, Commission on Physical
Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources
Alvin Lazen, executive director, Commission on Life Sciences (untiT
June 1988)
Victor Rabinowitch, executive director, Office of International
Affairs
1V
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Preface
Throughout its life on this earth, our human species has faced
a varied en c! ever-changing environment. We humans have enjoyed
great success. We have learned how to survive, and indeed how to
prosper, in winter's cold and summer's heat, and in environments as
diverse as Amazonian jungles, Saharan deserts, and arctic steppes.
We have not only adapted to the world as we found it; we have turned
forests into fields, bent rivers to water deserts, and wrested fuels and
goods from the earth itself.
Our success has not been achieved without cost. In exploiting
the earth's riches for our ends, we are necessarily changing our planet
in myriad ways. Sophisticated observers on Mars would note not only
our cities, our highways, and the Great Wall of China, but also the
disappearance of tropical forests, rapid changes in the composition
and radiative characteristics of our atmosphere, and the dramatic
annihilation of our protective ozone layer over the Antarctic. They
might speculate that further changes could eventually affect the
planet's ability to sustain life. They might further suppose that
a species clever enough to produce such changes would be astute
enough to worry about them. Fortunately, they would be right.
Concern about the Tong-term changes humanity is inducing in its
planetary environment has indeed been mounting for some decades
in the scientific community, and for some years in the broader com-
munities of the general public. Fortunately again, this concern about
v
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human-caused change has built upon a long-growing scientific pre-
occupation with natural change in the earth. Scientists have learned
that the earth's history has been characterized by ceaseless change,
that most of mankincl's' history has been lived in a wintry glacial
age, and that our vaunted civilization has flowered in a single brief
interglacial summer. But while we have learned much about what
has happened, we still understand discouragingly little about why it
happened.
We have, however, learned that we have no hope of understand-
ing the changes of the past, and still less of predicting the changes of
the future, by IGoking piecemeal at one or another aspect of this com-
plicated planet. If we are concerned with the decades and centuries
ahead, we cannot ignore the linkages that have shaped the planet's
past and present. The atmosphere has been largely manufactured
by life; the ocean's currents have been driven by the atmosphere,
and the ocean's living things have been nourished by airborne dust
and riverine sediments; and, throughout the ages, climate and life
have been inescapably intertwined. We must dare to seek an under-
standing of the earth as a single system of which we ourselves are an
increasingly important part.
This challenge motivated groups of scientists in the early years
of this decade to advance the venturesome proposal that science at-
tempt fully integrated studies of the Tong-term future and continued
habitability of the globe. These proposals led to searching studies of
the goals and requirements for research and observational efforts in
earth system science to study the problems of global change. Encour-
agingly, it was concluded that advances in our capabilities to observe
the earth, notably from the vantage point of space, and in our ability
to deal with massive and diverse data, made such a quest feasible.
Thus, advances in both understanding and capabilities led to pro-
posals for the development of an International Geosphere-Biosphere
Program (IGBP) to focus the efforts of the worId's scientists on the
problem of global change.
The objective of the IGBP is to develop the scientific understand-
ing needed to anticipate future changes in the earth system. Such
predictive information provides the foundation for decision makers
to develop policies that respond to global change. Thus, in addition
to the immense scientific challenge, the scientific community wiD
face the equally difficult challenge of effectively communicating the
results of the IGBP to those responsible for formulating policies.
Turning such broad goals into concrete projects and plans is
V1
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no easy task. It demands that scientists shed their Tong-embedded
traditions of narrow disciplinary study, and summon the courage
to attack together problems that are both exceedingly difficult and
surpassingly urgent. Within the United States, many elements of a
broad research program in the earth sciences are already being devel-
oped within the federal agencies. These federal efforts wiD provide
the indispensable foundation for U.S. contributions to the worldwide
study of global change problems. In parallel, plans for the IGBP are
being elaborated by a Special Committee of the International Coun-
ciT of Scientific Unions. Thus organized programs on the problems
of global change are currently in their preparatory phases, in which
scientific goals are being sharpened, potential projects explored, and
resource requirements identified. The task of the Committee on
Global Change is to serve as a channel for information, advice, and
guidance among the U.S. scientific community, the federal agencies,
and the international planning mechanisms in the developmer~t and
implementation of these studies of global change.
The purpose of this report is to identify early U.S. contributions
to the internationally defined IGBP during this preparatory phase
of its planning. The initiatives proposed were based upon a review
by our committee of the current state of knowledge of the earth
system as seen from several discipline-oriented perspectives. These
reviews were organized by various members of the committee with
the involvement of numerous experts from the scientific community.
For example, small workshops were held on biological systems and
dynamics in terrestrial and marine systems, and on biogeochemical
dynamics. A number of experts were also consulted to provide com-
ments on background documents prepared by committee members
on the climate and hydrologic system and on the human dimension
of global change. These efforts culminated in the background papers
included in Part II of this report.
These background papers provided the basis for a week-long
study by the committee, together with invited experts from academia
and government, held in March 1988 at Oracle, Arizona. The com-
mittee sought to identify a small number of scientific questions that
demanded to be addressed by the U.S. scientific community now, in
the preparatory phase of the IGBP. and regardless of the cro~ram's
.. . . , . . . ~
~ v ~ a- -c~-
ultimate design. Thus the committee emphasized questions that
were fundamental to the understanding of long-term changes in the
earth system, and issues that because they cut across conventional
disciplinary perspectives—were not being adequately addressed in
· .
V11
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ongoing programs. Part I of this report presents the results of that
analysis. As the international and national programs evolve, the on-
going dialogue within the scientific community on the questions that
need to be addressed will continue. Thus the committee expects to
supplement these recommendations regarding early initiatives in the
program with more complete studies, reviews, and scientific plans.
i:
Throughout the preparation of this report, an enormous number
of people aided the committee. We are greatly indebted to the
scientists listed in connection with the individual background papers,
who gave so freely of their time to participate in workshops and in
the drafting and review of manuscripts. We also thank the many
colleagues who reviewed early versions of the report.
A number of representatives of the federal agencies participat-
ng in the Committee on Earth Sciences of the Federal Coordinating
Council on Science, Engineering, and Technology have worked excep-
tionally closely with our committee, and have greatly enriched our
deliberations. Within the National Research Council, our committee
has operated under the supervision, and with the steadfast support,
of an ad hoc coordinating committee consisting of the chairmen of
the Commissions on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources;
Life Sciences; and Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education;
and the foreign secretary. With the aid of these groups, we believe
that we have forged a new and uniquely productive form of inter-
action and partnership among many federal agencies with diverse
missions and many scientific disciplines with diverse concerns and
constituencies.
Finally, we are most appreciative of the support of the com-
mittee's staff at the National Research Council: John Perry, Ruth
DeFries, Doris Bouadjemi, and Cristina Rosenberg.
Harold A. Mooney, Chairman
Committee on Global Change
· ·—
vail
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Contents
SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS
INTRODUCTION
U.S. Program for the Stucly of Global Change, 6
The International Geosphere-Biosphere Program, 7
Objectives and organization of this report, 9
PART I: RECOMMENDATIONS
1. INITIAL RESEARCH PRIORITIES FOR U.S.
PARTICIPATION IN THE IGBP
Research initiatives for early implementation, 14
Development of research initiatives, 23
SUPPORTING NEEDS FOR PROGRAM
DEVELOPMENT
Documenting global change, 28
Measurement strategy, 33
Information systems, 36
Management of the IGBP, 39
1X
5
13
27
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PART II: BACKGROUND PAPERS
BIOGEOCHEMICAL DYNAMICS, Coordinators:
Michael B. McElroy and Berrien Moore III
ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS AND DYNAMICS,
Coordinator: Margaret B. Davis,
CLIMATIC AND HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS,
Coordinator: Robert E. Dickinson
THE HUMAN DIMENSIONS OF GLOBAL
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, Coordinator:
William C. Clark
EARTH SYSTEM HISTORY AND MODELING,
Coordinator: Berrien Moore III
47
69
107
134
201
