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8 CHAPTER 4 TRENDS AFFECTING COMMERCIAL VEHICLE INSPECTION STRATEGIES SUMMARY OF INDUSTRY TRENDS Enforcement resources likely will be unable to keep pace with this rapid growth in commercial vehicle traffic. Concern Commercial motor vehicle operations are modified con- about this trend was illustrated in the state survey results. The tinually in response to the changing economy and the top two issues that were identified as burdening the jurisdic- demands of customers. As such, economic trends have a key tions' commercial vehicle inspection program were: "increases impact on the motor carrier and motor coach industries. Key in commercial truck/bus traffic" (61%) and "availability of trends currently affecting the industries include: jurisdiction enforcement resources" (57%). Increasing freight volumes, Increasing international shipments, Increasing International Shipments Changing logistics patterns, and The enactment of international trading agreements and the Increasing fuel prices. globalization of trade will dramatically increase the number of international shipments entering/exiting the United States. In These trends and their effects on commercial vehicle oper- 1998, international freight totaled one billion tons. This freight ations and safety are described below. These trends will play is expected to double to two billion tons by 2020 [FHWA, a key role in driving the demand for and placement of road- Freight Analysis Framework]. This increase in international side enforcement resources, as well as the use of alternative shipments will precipitate an increase in truck traffic deliver- inspection strategies. ing goods to/from the United States' North American trade partners. In particular, NorthSouth trade corridors in North Increasing Freight Volume Dakota, Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, New York, New England, and the Pacific Northwest are expected In 1998, freight movements in the United States (includ- to experience significant growth to support United States ing exports and imports) totaled approximately 15.2 billion Canada trade [FHWA, Integrating Freight in the Trans- tons with a combined value of $9.3 billion [FHWA, Freight portation Planning Process training course, slide 16]. The Analysis Framework]. Of this total, commercial trucks were I-10 and I-35 trade corridors in the southern United States are responsible for moving 71% of the tonnage (10.9 billion tons) forecast to experience significant growth in support of United and 80% of the value ($7.4 billion). These freight volumes are States-Mexico trade [FHWA, Integrating Freight in the anticipated to nearly double by 202025.8 billion tons and Transportation Planning Process training course, slide 17]. $30 billion. Commercial trucks are projected to remain the Ports on the United States northern and southern border will dominant mode of freight movement in the United States-- see corresponding increases in truck traffic--as shipments accounting for 74.2% of the 2020 tonnage and 78% of the transit into/out of Mexico and Canada. 2020 value. In addition to increased highway and port of entry traffic, In order, to accommodate these rapid increases in freight international trade will impact commercial vehicle operations volumes, the number of commercial vehicle miles driven also at and around maritime ports across the United States. Con- will increase dramatically. Commercial vehicle freight traffic gestion at ports, as commercial vehicles wait to be loaded and is projected to increase by nearly 90% by 2020. This increase unloaded, is projected to worsen as port shipments increase is in addition to other sizable increases in commercial vehicle without a corresponding increase in capacity. Further, "larger miles traveled that have occurred since 1980. Figure 1 illus- trucks operating on older access routes often have to deal with trates the past and projected dramatic rises in commercial vehi- short signal times, inadequate roadway geometrics, and other cle (i.e., a straight truck with two or more axles and six tires, local roadway conditions" [FHWA, Trade: From National a combination vehicle) miles driven [FHWA, Integrating Markets to Global Markets, available: http://ops.fhwa.dot. Freight in the Transportation Planning Process training course, gov/freight/theme_papers/final_thm1_v3.htm)]. slide 7 (NHI Course 139001, Publication #: NHI-FHWA-04- Since the enactment of the North American Free Trade 130, February 2004.)]. Agreement, the number of Canadian and Mexican registered