National Academies Press: OpenBook
« Previous: Front Matter
Page 1
Suggested Citation:"Part 1 - Final Report." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2006. Disruption Impact Estimating Tool--Transportation (DIETT): A Tool for Prioritizing High-Value Transportation Choke Points. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13940.
×
Page 1
Page 2
Suggested Citation:"Part 1 - Final Report." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2006. Disruption Impact Estimating Tool--Transportation (DIETT): A Tool for Prioritizing High-Value Transportation Choke Points. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13940.
×
Page 2
Page 3
Suggested Citation:"Part 1 - Final Report." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2006. Disruption Impact Estimating Tool--Transportation (DIETT): A Tool for Prioritizing High-Value Transportation Choke Points. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13940.
×
Page 3
Page 4
Suggested Citation:"Part 1 - Final Report." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2006. Disruption Impact Estimating Tool--Transportation (DIETT): A Tool for Prioritizing High-Value Transportation Choke Points. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13940.
×
Page 4
Page 5
Suggested Citation:"Part 1 - Final Report." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2006. Disruption Impact Estimating Tool--Transportation (DIETT): A Tool for Prioritizing High-Value Transportation Choke Points. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13940.
×
Page 5
Page 6
Suggested Citation:"Part 1 - Final Report." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2006. Disruption Impact Estimating Tool--Transportation (DIETT): A Tool for Prioritizing High-Value Transportation Choke Points. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13940.
×
Page 6
Page 7
Suggested Citation:"Part 1 - Final Report." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2006. Disruption Impact Estimating Tool--Transportation (DIETT): A Tool for Prioritizing High-Value Transportation Choke Points. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13940.
×
Page 7
Page 8
Suggested Citation:"Part 1 - Final Report." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2006. Disruption Impact Estimating Tool--Transportation (DIETT): A Tool for Prioritizing High-Value Transportation Choke Points. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13940.
×
Page 8
Page 9
Suggested Citation:"Part 1 - Final Report." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2006. Disruption Impact Estimating Tool--Transportation (DIETT): A Tool for Prioritizing High-Value Transportation Choke Points. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13940.
×
Page 9
Page 10
Suggested Citation:"Part 1 - Final Report." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2006. Disruption Impact Estimating Tool--Transportation (DIETT): A Tool for Prioritizing High-Value Transportation Choke Points. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13940.
×
Page 10

Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

P A R T 1 Final Report

C O N T E N T S 5 Chapter 1 Introduction 5 1.1 Background 5 1.2 System Design 6 1.3 Using DIETT 6 1.4 Limitations 8 Chapter 2 Estimating Methodology—The Algorithms 8 2.1 Increased Cost of Freight Movement 8 2.2 Increased Business Inventory Costs 9 2.3 Recommended Use 12 Appendix Summary of CATS Features

5This report provides a summary of the research activities conducted under NCHRP Project 20-59(9); a description of the resultant tool, Disruption Impact Estimating Tool— Transportation (DIETT); and a summary discussion of the key algorithms used in DIETT. 1.1 Background The goal of the research conducted under NCHRP Project 20-59(9) was to develop an analytical tool that would help in the identification and prioritization of state-specific trans- portation choke points (TCPs) according to their potential economic impact on U.S. commerce. The tool would assist state departments of transportation (DOTs) and other state security organizations in identifying and protecting high- value TCPs. The prioritized state results would be merged to identify candidate national TCPs for use in national security decisionmaking. The analytical tool developed under NCHRP Project 20- 59(9), DIETT, was designed in accordance with structural and operational guidelines specified by the NCHRP 20-59(9) project panel. The guidelines were as follows: • Identify existing, off-the-shelf tools that can be adopted for use in this application; • Adapt, modify, and connect these off-the-shelf tools as needed; • Test, refine, simplify, and otherwise make the analytical tool useful; • Identify data that can be used by the tool to generate the needed results; • Develop algorithms that will generate the desired analysis (prioritized estimates); • Use impact on commercial shipments as the key trans- portation variable; • Exclude from consideration the cost of TCP repair, replace- ment, and collateral damage; • Consider the effects of conventional explosives only; and • Select or prioritize TCPs on net national economic impacts criteria. The final guideline listed above specifically excludes con- sideration of losses to the local economy (business losses such as fueling stations, repair shops, lodging, etc.). Local eco- nomic losses, when considered on a net accounting basis, are predominantly temporary economic transfers, and they gen- erally result in temporary net economic gains elsewhere in the economy. However, there are cases in which local losses trans- late into permanent economic dislocations and as such result in net national losses. Examples of this type of impact include impacts on unique services or products, severe curtailment of access to “island” economies, loss of cross-border opportuni- ties, and loss of marginally competitive markets to imports. In cases where local losses result in net national economic losses, users of DIETT may want to consider adding these impacts separately. 1.2 System Design DIETT is composed of two off-the-shelf programs and a set of specified and unspecified optional programs used for generating the prioritized list of TCPs. The off-the-shelf programs are Microsoft (MS) Access and MS Excel. These were selected for operational desirability and for their simplicity, availability, and popularity. DIETT uses these programs in the following ways: • MS Access is used to select the first-tier candidate TCPs from TCP databases (databases are to be user-supplied) and to connect to MS Excel. • MS Excel is used for modeling the transportation and eco- nomic impacts and for generating the input and output presentation module. Interim scenario development and final prioritizations are also performed in MS Excel. All of C H A P T E R 1 Introduction

the MS Excel modeling and presentation features are prepro- grammed for the requirements of this project. The MS Excel part of DIETT is structured to calculate the transportation- related and the economic-related impacts (costs) and to facil- itate the development of alternate scenarios. Automatic sort functions were added to allow for ease of prioritization. The optional programs fine-tune the prioritizations developed in DIETT. One suggested program is ArcGIS (version 9.0), designed to identify detours based on a geo- graphic information system (GIS). These data can replace the detour lengths specified in other sources, such as the National Bridge Inventory (NBI). Other programs may be applied by the users, as deemed appropriate. It is recommended that DIETT reside in a consequence management package called the Consequences Assessment Tool Set—Joint Assessment of Catastrophic Events (CATS- JACE), which is based on a commercial geographic informa- tion system (GIS). CATS-JACE is a configuration of CATS, a disaster analysis system, which is available as an off-the-shelf package. CATS-JACE was developed for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the Defense Threat Reduc- tion Agency (DTRA) to provide a comprehensive package of hazard prediction models (natural hazards and technologi- cal hazards) and casualty and damage assessment tools. CATS-JACE has the capability to overlay event characteris- tics (e.g., dispersion paths), transportation (e.g., rail and high- way networks), population, and business datasets to provide an understanding of the extent, magnitude, duration, and impacts of an event. CATS-JACE also accepts real-time data from local meteorological stations. It is recommended that DIETT reside in CATS-JACE because CATS-JACE is available to many state transportation and security agencies and because it already contains ArcGIS (version 9.0). When DIETT resides within CATS-JACE, it can interact with resident security-related programs. For more information on CATS, see the appendix to this report or access the “Consequences Assessment Tool Set” at http:// cats.saic.com/. As illustrated in Exhibit 1, the structure of DIETT is rela- tively simple. Exhibit 1 shows the structure, relationships, and processes of DIETT and the four categories of state-level datasets suggested (mountain pass, tunnel, bridge, and state transportation and commerce). 1.3 Using DIETT The output of DIETT is a list of state-level TCPs, prioritized by net national economic impact. The output is developed through an interconnected, semi-automatic set of functions implemented by an analyst (who, ideally, will have at least a moderate level of knowledge of MS Access and MS Excel). The general, sequential, steps are as follows: 1. Identify and select the appropriate state-level TCP data- bases containing relevant data on mountain passes, tun- nels, and bridges. 2. Select the specified datasets (e.g., identifiers, bridge span, detour length, and number of vehicles). 3. Direct the database (an automated function) to select the top TCP candidates (500 is the suggested number of candidates) based on preprogrammed initial selection criteria. This list will be automatically exported to the MS Excel spreadsheet. 4. Further prioritize the list in MS Excel by changing trans- portation cost, performance, and economic impact default values (these are automated functions). 5. Refine the output (optional, but highly recommended) using more specific state transportation and commerce data and other programs. The number of TCPs to be refined and the extent of the refinements are determined by the user’s needs, the availability of data, and the desired level of accuracy. 6. Create an output file. Save or print. 7. Compare results with state-level lists of important TCPs to make sure that high-value TCPs were not systematically eliminated. (See “Limitations.”) More detailed installation and operating instructions are provided in Part 2 of this volume, “DIETT Installation Instructions and User Guide.” For security reasons, data used to illustrate the use of DIETT were altered NBI data from dif- ferent U.S. states entered as the data of an imaginary state— Fredonia. 1.4 Limitations DIETT has some inherent limitations; these are due to scope of work limitations and the generalizations in the algorithms. Generally, the generalizations in the algorithms imply a greater degree of uniformity and precision than really exists. Further limitations are introduced from external sources, predomi- 6 Security Caution DIETT is an analytical tool that helps users to prioritize transportation choke points (1) by value to the U.S. transportation system and (2) by value to the national economy. For security reasons, data used to illustrate the use of DIETT were altered. When the tool is used with actual data, the results could not only help users with legitimate purposes, but also those intending to disrupt the U.S. transportation infrastructure. There- fore, DIETT outputs should be guarded, and access should be limited to those with a “need to know.”

nantly by the limitations of the data. Some key limitations under each of these categories are noted below: • Inherent Limitations—these include but are not limited to the following: – Considering only the commercial-shipment trans- portation sector limits the scope of the transportation- related impacts that will be reported. This limitation is pronounced for TCPs in which commercial traffic is only a small fraction of the total traffic. (Note: the non- commercial transportation sector was specifically excluded in the scope.) – Repair or replacement costs for TCPs are not sup- ported by the available data and were not included. In some cases, this cost element can be a large, or even the largest, component of total losses. – The difference between estimated default values and actual values can be significant. Even though the user can narrow this difference by changing the default values through the final refinement steps, there may still be a large number of errors, which can result in premature exclusion of certain significant TCPs. The user should compare DIETT results with state-level lists of important TCPs to make sure that high-value TCPs were not eliminated. – The relationships built into the formulas contain sim- plified estimates of observed or assumed relationships. The user may change the formulas, as appropriate, and adjust some relationships in the final refinement steps. However, there may still be a large number of errors, which could result in premature exclusion of certain high- value TCPs. The user should compare results with state- level lists of important TCPs to make sure that high-value TCPs were not eliminated. • Externally Introduced Limitations—the dominant exter- nally introduced limitations are the data. Through limited spot validation for the state of Virginia, some critical data from the NBI were found to be suspect. These included length of the detour, number of trucks, and global- positioning-system (GPS) position specifications. This limitation suggests the importance of refining the output of DIETT. • Other Limitations—DIETT may not adequately consider the impact of multiple local or regional events. Similarly, it is not readily applicable to multiple events along a main transportation corridor. In some cases, such as the disable- ment of a bridge that carries truck and rail traffic, the impacts may be more severe than indicated by the model. The detour data provided in the NBI do not consider the structural capacity of the road to carry the increased traffic. • Validation—DIETT results were not validated. Other limitations may apply to individual states and TCPs. The user should make application-specific assessment of DIETT and data limitations. 7 Exhibit 1. The structure and flow of the Disruption Impact Estimating Tool—Transportation (DIETT).

8This chapter presents the summary methodology used in DIETT to estimate the transportation and economic costs of a disruption to a TCP. The methodology is designed to generate net national economic impacts as a function of commercial shipments (used interchangeably with freight movement) by truck, rail, and waterways. These impacts are derived by esti- mating and then adding the values for the • Increased cost of freight movement associated with the detours, and • Increased inventory costs imposed by the relative uncer- tainty of deliveries through the detour. Net economic and societal dislocations are not considered. Such dislocations are very important in determining the total impact of a disruption. However, the process of determining the total impact of dislocations is a very complex analytical and modeling exercise that is best performed through complex econometric models. Net total economic and societal disloca- tions are less important for calculating relative values of direct impact from disruptions to freight movement—the focus of this project. 2.1 Increased Cost of Freight Movement Increases in the cost of freight movement result from addi- tional vehicle operating costs associated with the added travel distance of a detour. These costs include driver salaries, fuel, operation and maintenance, shipper profit, and other business costs and are implicitly part of DIETT’s estimating method- ology. There may be other costs associated with the detour, such as tolls, road wear, traffic regulations, etc. These are not consid- ered herein, but they can be included in a DIETT analysis. The detour distance-related costs are compounded by the capacity limitations of the detour. The initial traffic congestion commonly subsides within about a week. However, long-term freight movement will be redistributed through a wider net (multiple detours) within mode and among modes and will last until the TCP is rebuilt. The degree of redistribution is a function of cost and risk. The cost factor is considered here, and the risk factor is considered in Section 2.2. The increases in costs of freight movement were calculated using the following: • Length of Detour—the distance traveled to bypass the dis- abled TCP. This value is provided by the NBI database and expressed in miles of detour, Md. • Level of Congestion—a factor that indicates the difference in throughput between the original route (the TCP) and the detour. It is expressed as a throughput factor, T, where T = throughput on detour (Td) divided by throughput on the TCP (TTCP), or T = Td/TTCP. • Unit Cost of Shipment—this value is expressed as cost ($) per ton of freight, per mile, C. This is a user input (default values are provided). The formula used for calculating the net cost of freight shipment through the detour (NCFSd) is Because there are generally multiple options for delivering freight to a point of destination, (alternative routes, different modes, different suppliers, etc.) the net cost of freight ship- ment through a detour, as expressed by NCFSd, is the “ceiling” or maximum net cost incurred per unit of shipment. If other options are more costly, they will not be taken. 2.2 Increased Business Inventory Costs The introduction of a detour into freight shipments dic- tates additional business costs beyond those considered above. These are due to the following: NCFS M * T * Cd d= C H A P T E R 2 Estimating Methodology—The Algorithms

• Increased Time En Route. An extreme example is mar- itime shipping, in which delays can be measured in weeks and the inventory costs in millions of dollars. Increased time en route affects surface transportation also, but is less noticeable because the time factor is small and the effect is distributed among many small shipments. However, in the aggregate, the effect can be significant. The cost associated with increased time en route is referred to as the detour time factor. • Altered Risk. This is the real or perceived risk of the revised shipment patterns (route, mode, etc.). The altered risk can be increased risk as well as decreased risk. This impact is most commonly internalized as the probability of making on-time delivery, or reliability. Changing inventory levels is commonly used to hedge the risk effect. Action taken in response to altered risk is referred to as the reliability factor. Both of these effects (factors) are addressed in the method- ology. Measuring the impact of these effects required the introduction of three sets of data: – Cargo value—Default values are provided in three cate- gories for each mode: high ($10,000/ton of cargo), medium ($1,000/ton), and low ($100/ton). These are used to set an estimated value on the rerouted freight. Cargo value is used in the calculation of inventory premiums. – Inventory premium—This is the inventory cost as a percentage of cargo value. The default value is set at 18% per year. The premium is applied for the duration of the disruption. – Detour reliability factor—This reflects the reliability of on-time delivery compared with the reliability perform- ance on the original route. Reliability data are not readily available and required the inclusion of estimated values. The best estimates may be generated at the state level. The user can enter state-specific estimates. The categories and the default values used in determining business inventory costs are shown in Exhibit 2. Algorithms are constructed within DIETT to calculate all business inventory-related costs using the inventory cost- related parameters to generate separate impact data for transportation-related impacts (costs) and direct economic impacts. The summary results are provided in the 11-column OUTPUTS worksheet of the DIETT application (see Ex- hibit 3). Of these 11 columns, the first 6 are TCP identifiers and the next 5 are impact results measured in absolute (estimated) value ($) and as defined percentages. 2.3 Recommended Use Recommendations for obtaining the most benefit from DIETT include the following: • Users (predominantly state DOTs) should consider assign- ing responsibility for applying this tool to analysts (1) con- versant with the recommended datasets (and the limitations of those datasets); (2) with access-controlled workspace and procedures in place to safeguard the data and infor- mation generated through use of DIETT; and (3) with clear guidance as to how the information generated through DIETT is to be documented, communicated, and incorporated into agency policy and budget development processes. • Users should set up DIETT to operate within or in tan- dem with CATS-JACE to enable interaction with resident security-related programs. One example of the applica- bility of CATS-JACE is its ability, through ArcGIS (ver- sion 9.0), a resident program, to improve on “detour” (distance) data. A feature of ArcGIS (version 9.0) dis- played in the toolbar as “Browse Bridges” (see Exhibit 4) can be used to identify alternative detours through the use of GIS information and GIS mapping functions. Other functions of ArcGIS allow users to display the location of candidate TCPs, close off roads (virtually), and develop scenarios for the best detours. A detour can be automati- cally measured in additional miles traveled—see “Added Distance” in Exhibit 5. The detour can also be visually designated (see Exhibit 6). 9 Inventory Cost-related Categories Default Values % of Cargo High Value - Truck 60% % of Cargo Med. Value - Truck 30% % of Cargo Low Value - Truck 10% % of Cargo High Value - Rail 20% % of Cargo Med. Value - Rail 50% % of Cargo Low Value - Rail 30% % of Cargo High Value - Barge 5% % of Cargo Med. Value - Barge 25% % of Cargo Low Value - Barge 70% Alternate Route Reliability - Truck 95% Alternate Route Reliability - Rail 99% Inventory Cost: % of Cargo/Year 18% Exhibit 2. Inventory cost-related categories and default values.

Exhibit 3. The output page of the DIETT spreadsheet application. Exhibit 4. ArcGIS (version 9.0) toolbar and data display.

11 Exhibit 5. ArcGIS (version 9.0) detour result dialog box. Exhibit 6. ArcGIS (version 9.0) visualization of detour. Detour Normal Route

12 The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a power- ful disaster analysis system for natural and technological haz- ards. A joint effort between the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) inspired and directed the development of CATS. The Hazards Assessment and Simulation Operation of Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) (avail- able at www.saic.com) performed the development of CATS under the direction of FEMA and DTRA This appendix pres- ents summary information on CATS. For more detailed infor- mation, visit the CATS website at http://cats.saic.com. CATS Features CATS provides a comprehensive package of hazard predic- tion models (natural hazards and technological hazards) and casualty and damage assessment tools. CATS also accepts real- time data from local meteorological stations. CATS is supplied with over 150 databases and map layers. These include the location of resources to support response to specific hazards, infrastructure objects and facilities (com- munications, electric power, oil and gas, emergency services, government, transportation, and water supply), a variety of population breakouts and much more. It also offers the user the opportunity to add databases for custom analysis. Although it was developed for DTRA and FEMA, CATS is now available to federal, state, and local government emer- gency response organizations nationwide. Requesting CATS CATS is available on an annual subscription basis to employ- ees of federal, state, and local government agencies. There is no charge for military or other federal agency users. For all state, county, and local requestors, the charge is $850 per year. See http://cats.saic.com for further information. States and Other Users of CATS States A P P E N D I X Summary of CATS Features Alabama California Colorado Florida Hawaii Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska New Hampshire New Jersey New York North Carolina Ohio Oregon Pennsylvania South Carolina Texas Utah Washington Wisconsin Federal U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Centers for Disease Control/Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (CDC/ATSDR) Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) U.S. Army National Guard City/County Arlington, VA Charleston, SC New York City Orange County, CA San Diego, CA West Valley City, UT

Next: Part 2 - DIETT Installation Instructions and User Guide »
Disruption Impact Estimating Tool--Transportation (DIETT): A Tool for Prioritizing High-Value Transportation Choke Points Get This Book
×
MyNAP members save 10% online.
Login or Register to save!
Download Free PDF

TRB’s National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 525: Surface Transportation Security, Volume 11, Disruption Impact Estimating Tool—Transportation (DIETT): A Tool for Prioritizing High-Value Transportation Choke Points (TCPs) includes information on DIETT as well as installation instructions and a user guide. DIETT is an electronic analytical tool that calculates direct transportation and economic impacts (costs) of an event that precludes the use of a TCP, and it prioritizes TCPs on the basis of these criteria. DIETT does not calculate replacement costs. Using DIETT’s prioritized sets of outputs, along with other risk information, decision makers will be able to better focus their capital resource, security, and emergency-preparedness planning.

Although DIETT is specifically designed to assist state DOTs and other state security and emergency-preparedness organizations, prioritized state results can be readily merged to identify candidate TCPs for use in regional or national prioritization schemes. Localities and metropolitan areas can also work with area-specific data to assess their TCP priorities. DIETT is designed to prioritize based on direct transportation and economic impacts; however, it can be expanded by adding other criteria of interest to the user and thus offers compatibility with numerous applications.

Users can “download” the zip file for DIETT (usually by reverse clicking the mouse and selecting “save as” menu option). After downloading, the zip file should be decompressed to their local PC. Users can also consult the “DIETT Installation Instructions and User Guide” (Part 2 of NCHRP Rep. 525, Vol. 11) for installation instructions.

NCHRP Report 525: Surface Transportation Security is a series in which relevant information is assembled into single, concise volumes—each pertaining to a specific security problem and closely related issues. The volumes focus on the concerns that transportation agencies are addressing when developing programs in response to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the anthrax attacks that followed. Future volumes of the report will be issued as they are completed.

  1. ×

    Welcome to OpenBook!

    You're looking at OpenBook, NAP.edu's online reading room since 1999. Based on feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read thousands of publications on our website.

    Do you want to take a quick tour of the OpenBook's features?

    No Thanks Take a Tour »
  2. ×

    Show this book's table of contents, where you can jump to any chapter by name.

    « Back Next »
  3. ×

    ...or use these buttons to go back to the previous chapter or skip to the next one.

    « Back Next »
  4. ×

    Jump up to the previous page or down to the next one. Also, you can type in a page number and press Enter to go directly to that page in the book.

    « Back Next »
  5. ×

    To search the entire text of this book, type in your search term here and press Enter.

    « Back Next »
  6. ×

    Share a link to this book page on your preferred social network or via email.

    « Back Next »
  7. ×

    View our suggested citation for this chapter.

    « Back Next »
  8. ×

    Ready to take your reading offline? Click here to buy this book in print or download it as a free PDF, if available.

    « Back Next »
Stay Connected!