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5 CHAPTER 1 Introduction This report provides a summary of the research activities Consider the effects of conventional explosives only; and conducted under NCHRP Project 20-59(9); a description of Select or prioritize TCPs on net national economic impacts the resultant tool, Disruption Impact Estimating Tool-- criteria. Transportation (DIETT); and a summary discussion of the key algorithms used in DIETT. The final guideline listed above specifically excludes con- sideration of losses to the local economy (business losses such as fueling stations, repair shops, lodging, etc.). Local eco- 1.1 Background nomic losses, when considered on a net accounting basis, are The goal of the research conducted under NCHRP Project predominantly temporary economic transfers, and they gen- 20-59(9) was to develop an analytical tool that would help in erally result in temporary net economic gains elsewhere in the the identification and prioritization of state-specific trans- economy. However, there are cases in which local losses trans- portation choke points (TCPs) according to their potential late into permanent economic dislocations and as such result economic impact on U.S. commerce. The tool would assist in net national losses. Examples of this type of impact include state departments of transportation (DOTs) and other state impacts on unique services or products, severe curtailment of security organizations in identifying and protecting high- access to "island" economies, loss of cross-border opportuni- value TCPs. The prioritized state results would be merged to ties, and loss of marginally competitive markets to imports. identify candidate national TCPs for use in national security In cases where local losses result in net national economic decisionmaking. losses, users of DIETT may want to consider adding these The analytical tool developed under NCHRP Project 20- impacts separately. 59(9), DIETT, was designed in accordance with structural and operational guidelines specified by the NCHRP 20-59(9) 1.2 System Design project panel. The guidelines were as follows: DIETT is composed of two off-the-shelf programs and a Identify existing, off-the-shelf tools that can be adopted for set of specified and unspecified optional programs used for use in this application; generating the prioritized list of TCPs. Adapt, modify, and connect these off-the-shelf tools as The off-the-shelf programs are Microsoft (MS) Access and needed; MS Excel. These were selected for operational desirability and Test, refine, simplify, and otherwise make the analytical tool for their simplicity, availability, and popularity. DIETT uses useful; these programs in the following ways: Identify data that can be used by the tool to generate the needed results; MS Access is used to select the first-tier candidate TCPs Develop algorithms that will generate the desired analysis from TCP databases (databases are to be user-supplied) (prioritized estimates); and to connect to MS Excel. Use impact on commercial shipments as the key trans- MS Excel is used for modeling the transportation and eco- portation variable; nomic impacts and for generating the input and output Exclude from consideration the cost of TCP repair, replace- presentation module. Interim scenario development and ment, and collateral damage; final prioritizations are also performed in MS Excel. All of