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NATIONAL
NCHRP SYNTHESIS 358
COOPERATIVE
HIGHWAY
RESEARCH
PROGRAM
Statewide Travel
Forecasting Models
A Synthesis of Highway Practice
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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE 2006 (Membership as of April 2006)
OFFICERS
Chair: Michael D. Meyer, Professor, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology
Vice Chair: Linda S. Watson, Executive Director, LYNX--Central Florida Regional Transportation Authority
Executive Director: Robert E. Skinner, Jr., Transportation Research Board
MEMBERS
MICHAEL W. BEHRENS, Executive Director, Texas DOT
ALLEN D. BIEHLER, Secretary, Pennsylvania DOT
JOHN D. BOWE, Regional President, APL Americas, Oakland, CA
LARRY L. BROWN, SR., Executive Director, Mississippi DOT
DEBORAH H. BUTLER, Vice President, Customer Service, Norfolk Southern Corporation and Subsidiaries, Atlanta, GA
ANNE P. CANBY, President, Surface Transportation Policy Project, Washington, DC
DOUGLAS G. DUNCAN, President and CEO, FedEx Freight, Memphis, TN
NICHOLAS J. GARBER, Henry L. Kinnier Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville
ANGELA GITTENS, Vice President, Airport Business Services, HNTB Corporation, Miami, FL
GENEVIEVE GIULIANO, Professor and Senior Associate Dean of Research and Technology, School of Policy, Planning,
and Development, and Director, METRANS National Center for Metropolitan Transportation Research, USC, Los Angeles
SUSAN HANSON, Landry University Professor of Geography, Graduate School of Geography, Clark University
JAMES R. HERTWIG, President, CSX Intermodal, Jacksonville, FL
GLORIA J. JEFF, General Manager, City of Los Angeles DOT
ADIB K. KANAFANI, Cahill Professor of Civil Engineering, University of California, Berkeley
HAROLD E. LINNENKOHL, Commissioner, Georgia DOT
SUE MCNEIL, Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Delaware
DEBRA L. MILLER, Secretary, Kansas DOT
MICHAEL R. MORRIS, Director of Transportation, North Central Texas Council of Governments
CAROL A. MURRAY, Commissioner, New Hampshire DOT
JOHN R. NJORD, Executive Director, Utah DOT
SANDRA ROSENBLOOM, Professor of Planning, University of Arizona, Tucson
HENRY GERARD SCHWARTZ, JR., Senior Professor, Washington University
MICHAEL S. TOWNES, President and CEO, Hampton Roads Transit, Hampton, VA
C. MICHAEL WALTON, Ernest H. Cockrell Centennial Chair in Engineering, University of Texas at Austin
MARION C. BLAKEY, Federal Aviation Administrator, U.S.DOT (ex officio)
JOSEPH H. BOARDMAN, Federal Railroad Administrator, U.S.DOT (ex officio)
REBECCA M. BREWSTER, President and COO, American Transportation Research Institute, Smyrna, GA (ex officio)
GEORGE BUGLIARELLO, Chancellor, Polytechnic University of New York, and Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Engineering
(ex officio)
SANDRA K. BUSHUE, Deputy Administrator, Federal Transit Administration, U.S.DOT (ex officio)
J. RICHARD CAPKA, Acting Administrator, Federal Highway Administration, U.S.DOT (ex officio)
THOMAS H. COLLINS (Adm., U.S. Coast Guard), Commandant, U.S. Coast Guard (ex officio)
JAMES J. EBERHARDT, Chief Scientist, Office of FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies, U.S. Department of Energy (ex officio)
JACQUELINE GLASSMAN, Deputy Administrator, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, U.S.DOT (ex officio)
EDWARD R. HAMBERGER, President and CEO, Association of American Railroads (ex officio)
WARREN E. HOEMANN, Deputy Administrator, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, U.S.DOT (ex officio)
JOHN C. HORSLEY, Executive Director, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (ex officio)
JOHN E. JAMIAN, Acting Administrator, Maritime Administration, U.S.DOT (ex officio)
J. EDWARD JOHNSON, Director, Applied Science Directorate, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (ex officio)
ASHOK G. KAVEESHWAR, Research and Innovative Technology Administrator, U.S.DOT (ex officio)
BRIGHAM MCCOWN, Deputy Administrator, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, U.S.DOT (ex officio)
WILLIAM W. MILLAR, President, American Public Transportation Association (ex officio)
SUZANNE RUDZINSKI, Director, Transportation and Regional Programs, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (ex officio)
JEFFREY N. SHANE, Under Secretary for Policy, U.S.DOT (ex officio)
CARL A. STROCK (Maj. Gen., U.S. Army), Chief of Engineers and Commanding General, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (ex officio)
NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM
Transportation Research Board Executive Committee Subcommittee for NCHRP
MICHAEL D. MEYER, Georgia Institute of Technology (Chair) ROBERT E. SKINNER, JR., Transportation Research Board
J. RICHARD CAPKA, Federal Highway Administration C. MICHAEL WALTON, University of Texas at Austin
JOHN C. HORSLEY, American Association of State Highway LINDA S. WATSON, LYNX--Central Florida Regional
and Transportation Officials Transportation Authority
JOHN R. NJORD, Utah DOT
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NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM
NCHRP SYNTHESIS 358
Statewide Travel Forecasting Models
A Synthesis of Highway Practice
CONSULTANT
ALAN HOROWITZ
Center for Urban Transportation Studies
University of WisconsinMilwaukee
S UBJECT A REAS
Planning and Administration
Research Sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials
in Cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD
WASHINGTON, D.C.
2006
www.TRB.org
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NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM NCHRP SYNTHESIS 358
Systematic, well-designed research provides the most effective Price $36.00
approach to the solution of many problems facing highway
administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local Project 20-5 (Topic 36-09)
interest and can best be studied by highway departments ISSN 0547-5570
individually or in cooperation with their state universities and ISBN 0-309-09765-7
others. However, the accelerating growth of highway transportation Library of Congress Control No. 2006922159
develops increasingly complex problems of wide interest to
© 2006 Transportation Research Board
highway authorities. These problems are best studied through a
coordinated program of cooperative research.
In recognition of these needs, the highway administrators of the
American Association of State Highway and Transportation COPYRIGHT PERMISSION
Officials initiated in 1962 an objective national highway research Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for
program employing modern scientific techniques. This program is obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the
supported on a continuing basis by funds from participating copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein.
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Research projects to fulfill these needs are defined by the Board, and appropriate by the technical committee, they are not necessarily those of the
qualified research agencies are selected from those that have Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, the American
submitted proposals. Administration and surveillance of research Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, or the Federal
contracts are the responsibilities of the National Research Council Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation.
and the Transportation Research Board. Each report is reviewed and accepted for publication by the technical
The needs for highway research are many, and the National committee according to procedures established and monitored by the
Cooperative Highway Research Program can make significant Transportation Research Board Executive Committee and the Governing
Board of the National Research Council.
contributions to the solution of highway transportation problems of
mutual concern to many responsible groups. The program,
however, is intended to complement rather than to substitute for or
duplicate other highway research programs.
Published reports of the
NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM
are available from:
Transportation Research Board
Business Office
500 Fifth Street, NW
NOTE: The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the
Washington, DC 20001
National Research Council, the Federal Highway Administration, the American
Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, and the individual and can be ordered through the Internet at:
states participating in the National Cooperative Highway Research Program do http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore
not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers' names appear
herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of this report. Printed in the United States of America
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished schol-
ars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology
and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in
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cal matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
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NCHRP COMMITTEE FOR PROJECT 20-5 COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM STAFF
ROBERT J. REILLY, Director, Cooperative Research Programs
CHAIR CRAWFORD F. JENCKS, Manager, NCHRP
GARY D. TAYLOR, CTE Engineers EILEEN DELANEY, Director of Publications
MEMBERS NCHRP SYNTHESIS STAFF
THOMAS R. BOHUSLAV, Texas DOT STEPHEN R. GODWIN, Director for Studies and Information Services
DONN E. HANCHER, University of Kentucky JON WILLIAMS, Manager, Synthesis Studies
DWIGHT HORNE, Federal Highway Administration DONNA L. VLASAK, Senior Program Officer
YSELA LLORT, Florida DOT DON TIPPMAN, Editor
WESLEY S.C. LUM, California DOT CHERYL KEITH, Senior Secretary
JAMES W. MARCH, Federal Highway Administration
JOHN M. MASON, JR., Pennsylvania State University TOPIC PANEL
CATHERINE NELSON, Oregon DOT ROB BOSTROM, Wilbur Smith Associates
LARRY VELASQUEZ, New Mexico DOT JULIE DUNBAR, Dunbar Transportation Consulting
PAUL T. WELLS, New York State DOT MICHAEL DuROSS, Delaware Department of Transportation
KIMBERLY FISHER, Transportation Research Board
FHWA LIAISON GREG GIAIMO, Ohio Department of Transportation
WILLIAM ZACCAGNINO JOHN DOUGLAS HUNT, University of Calgary
HUI WEI SHEN, Florida Department of Transportation
TRB LIAISON WILLIAM UPTON, Oregon Department of Transportation
STEPHEN F. MAHER ROBERT A. GORMAN, Federal Highway Administration (Liaison)
HARLAN MILLER, Federal Highway Administration (Liaison)
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Chapter three was written with the assistance of Xia Jin. Appendix C originally developed for NCHRP Project 8-43, "Methods for Forecast-
was principally written by David Farmer, with contributions from Alan ing Statewide Freight Movements and Related Performance Measures."
Horowitz. The material has been excerpted from the Guidebook on It was written by Alan J. Horowitz, K. Ian Weisser, Cheng Gong, and
Statewide Travel Forecasting Models. Appendix D presents material Joe Blakeman.
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FOREWORD Highway administrators, engineers, and researchers often face problems for which infor-
By Staff mation already exists, either in documented form or as undocumented experience and prac-
Transportation tice. This information may be fragmented, scattered, and unevaluated. As a consequence,
Research Board full knowledge of what has been learned about a problem may not be brought to bear on its
solution. Costly research findings may go unused, valuable experience may be overlooked,
and due consideration may not be given to recommended practices for solving or alleviat-
ing the problem.
There is information on nearly every subject of concern to highway administrators and
engineers. Much of it derives from research or from the work of practitioners faced with
problems in their day-to-day work. To provide a systematic means for assembling and eval-
uating such useful information and to make it available to the entire highway community,
the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials--through the
mechanism of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program--authorized the
Transportation Research Board to undertake a continuing study. This study, NCHRP Proj-
ect 20-5, "Synthesis of Information Related to Highway Problems," searches out and syn-
thesizes useful knowledge from all available sources and prepares concise, documented
reports on specific topics. Reports from this endeavor constitute an NCHRP report series,
Synthesis of Highway Practice.
This synthesis series reports on current knowledge and practice, in a compact format,
without the detailed directions usually found in handbooks or design manuals. Each report
in the series provides a compendium of the best knowledge available on those measures
found to be the most successful in resolving specific problems.
PREFACE This synthesis describes statewide travel forecasting models designed to address plan-
ning needs and provide forecasts for statewide transportation, including passenger vehicle
and freight movement. It discusses the types and purposes of models being used, integra-
tion of state and urban models, data requirements, computer needs, resources (including
time, funding, training, and staff), limitations, and overall benefits. Five case studies are
included, two that focus on passenger components, two on freight components, and one on
both passenger and freight. In addition, definitions of common technical terms and an anno-
tated bibliography of statewide and national forecasting techniques are provided. An
excerpt from the Guidebook on Statewide Travel Forecasting Models concerning passen-
ger and intercity travel forecasting is included as an appendix.
This synthesis effort was based on the results of surveys received from each state that has
a statewide travel forecasting model. A literature review was also undertaken, with major
information sources (studies, databases, surveys, and programs) cited and discussed.
Alan Horowitz, Center for Urban Transportation Studies, University of Wisconsin
Milwaukee, collected and synthesized the information and wrote the report. The members
of the topic panel are acknowledged on the preceding page. This synthesis is an immediately
useful document that records the practices that were acceptable within the limitations of the
knowledge available at the time of its preparation. As progress in research and practice con-
tinues, new knowledge will be added to that now at hand.
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CONTENTS
1 SUMMARY
5 CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION
Major Sources of Information on Statewide Travel Forecasting Models, 5
Recent Research on United States Intercity Travel Forecasting, 7
Major Databases of Particular Interest for Statewide Travel Forecasting, 7
Commercial Databases and Forecasts in Use by States, 9
Definitions of Common Technical Terms Used to Describe Statewide Travel
Models, 10
13 CHAPTER TWO SURVEY OF STATEWIDE TRAVEL FORECASTING
PRACTICE
Survey Methodology, 13
Rural Traffic Forecasting Not Involving Statewide Models, 13
States with Statewide Modeling Capability, 13
Rationale for Statewide Models, 14
Goals and Objectives, 18
Institutional Arrangements, 18
Institutional Barriers to Models, 19
Computer Hardware and Software, 20
Overall Model Considerations, 21
Passenger Components, 22
Modal Choice, 24
Freight Components, 28
Land Use and Economic Activity, 31
Statewide and Urban Model Integration, 31
Validation, 31
Post-Processing, 32
33 CHAPTER THREE CASE STUDIES
Case Study 1: Kentucky Passenger Component, 33
Case Study 2: Indiana Passenger Component, 35
Case Study 3: Ohio Combined Passenger and Freight Components, 40
Case Study 4: Virginia Freight Component, 43
Case Study 5: Wisconsin Freight Component, 47
Discussion, 51
52 CHAPTER FOUR FINDINGS AND SUGGESTIONS FOR RESEARCH
55 REFERENCES
57 APPENDIX A SCREENING QUESTIONNAIRE
60 APPENDIX B FULL QUESTIONNAIRE FOR STATES NOT PARTICIPATING
IN THE PEER EXCHANGE
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79 APPENDIX C LITERATURE ON STATEWIDE AND INTERCITY
PASSENGER TRAVEL FORECASTING
88 APPENDIX D ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY OF STATEWIDE
FREIGHT FORECASTING
