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4 Challenges Facing the Research System As U.S. agriculture continues its impressive record of production and productivity, it also confronts a number of troubling issues. Chief among them are competitiveness in the United States and abroad and the overall economic performance of the agricultural and food sector, human health and well-being, and naturalresources stewardship. In particular, competi- tive and other pressures mustbe met or the agricultural sector will contribute less than its full potential to the nation's economic performance. Consumers in the marketplace and the public, through the political proc- ess, demand that the U.S. food system provides in- creasingly nutritious and convenient foods without raising prices. And public concern about the environ- ment water quality; preservation of forest and wild- life habitats; and the sustainability of current agricul- tural, rangeland, and forestland production practices- is leading to new conservation and regulatory policies. Although the issues of competitiveness and eco- nomic performance, human health and well-being, and natural resources stewardship have always been on agriculture's agenda, their growing magnitude, coupled with the public's increasing concern about them, gives each one a new urgency. This chapter surveys these three issues. It is based on assessments of research and development (R&D) needs andpriori- ties that have been undertaken by the Board on Agri- culture of the National Research Council, by institu- tional components of the research system (see Appen- dix D), and by professional societies. COMPETITIVENESS AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE Competitiveness is the need to progressively re- duce costs per unit of production while improving the consistency, quality, and value of products; to expand 42 markets; and to add value to increase profitability (see the box "Productivity"~. Although economic policy plays a role in helping the nation's agricultural and food sector be competitive, the key determinant of national agricultural competitiveness is science and technology through R&D. In the United States, competitiveness is intensified by three major trends: 1. Many countries, including some developed and most developing nations, are gaining the capacity to expand production or lower per-unit costs for agricul- tural products. 2. Channels of trade are becoming progressively more open, so that competitive prices and quality are becoming more important. 3. To the extent that U.S. agriculture is coupled with sufficient R&D, it has the continuing capacity to strengthen the United States economically~oth to reduce the budget and trade deficits, and to improve the U.S. balance of trade. The competitiveness and the economic per- formance of the U.S. agricultural and food sector are discussed in this chapter in two broad contexts, each of which is of major importance: (1) sustaining and ex- panding international agricultural trade and markets, and (2) ensuring strong national economic perfor- mance from agriculture. International Agricultural Trade and Markets The 1970s were characterized by explosive growth in agricultural trade. The United States was a major participant in and beneficiary of that growth. The 1980s have been characterized by stagnant or declin- ing trade, and U.S. agriculture has suffered. The
CHALLENGES FACING THE RESEARCH SYSTEM 43 Productivity Productivity, as defined by economists, differs significantly from production, as defined by physical scien- tists or economists. The harvested yield of corn from an acre of land, for example, is a measure of the production from that acre (whether measured in dollars [output times price] or in physical units [bushels, pounds, kilograms]~. Production, as a measure of the output harvested or obtained from a unit area (or geographic region) orfrom a single animal or a given herd, is relatively one-dimensional. In contrast, the pro- ductiv~y of a certain unit areaof land or of certain animals is a multidimensional measure, expressed as a ratio. It measures the combined monetary value of all outputs from a production activity (grain, stover, meat, manure) in relation to the total monetary costs of conducting the activities (all cash production costs, land rental, depreciation, interest, etc.~. In the short term, there can be too much production, but there can never be too much productivity. When production exceeds demand, surplus stocks tend to build, crop prices fall (lowering measures of productiv- ity), and the cost of government farm programs tends to grow. But increased productivity, after correction for confounding factors like policy changes, generally results from real reductions in the cost of producing food and fiber products. Gains in productivity benefit society by making products available at lower costs to the consumer than would otherwise be the case, at a higher profit to the producer or processor, or both. In the 1 980s U.S. agriculture suffered from too much production, largely because global demand declined (in response to macroeconomic adjustments and a worldwide recession). As a result, crop and land values fell and farmers tried to cut production costs in a variety of ways. Many farmers succeeded in reducing costs and are now operating more efficiently, i.e., more productively. Over the long term, their productivity will also rise, and higher profits should result. L I experience of the last two decades underlies three major trends that have and will continue to provide the context within which U.S. agriculture operates: (1) the U.S. agricultural economy is becoming interna- tionalized and integrated into the world agricultural economy; (2) the U.S. agricultural sector and other sectors of the national and international economies are increasingly interdependent; and (3) domestic and international markets are increasingly unstable. Increased internationalization, interdependence, and instability have had major effects on the economic performance of U.S. producers and processors and on the nation's economic condition. They are closely linked and require joint treatment if U.S. agriculture is to adjust and thrive in the global economy (Experi- ment Station Committee on Organization and Policy, 1984, U.S. General Accounting Office, 1987~. Policy Context U.S. agriculture became irreversibly intemational- ized in the 1970s as the sector expanded its exports to world markets at unprecedented rates. The foreign exchange earned by the agricultural trade surplus paid for imports of petroleum, raw materials, and consumer goods. In the 1980s, this was reversed. Agricultural exports and farm prices declined substantially, caus ing serious problems and loss of income for U.S. agriculture. Falling prices, rising stocks, and bank- ruptcies caused government expenditures for farm programs to increase sharply. Concurrently, imports of various commodities and foods have significantly increased in recent years, and much imported produce is now competing with domestic produce. Integration into the global economy means that foreign markets are now centrally important to U.S. agriculture and that its economic health depends on continued strong export demand. Changes in international demand for U.S. agricul- tural products result from many variables: growth in income and demand in developing countries, lagging production in many areas of Africa and Asia, changes in policy in centrally planned economies, changes in currency values, and policies of major foreign com- petitors. As more countries compete in agricultural trade and as the volumes of trade have risen, interna- tional markets have become more complex. Thus, understanding the international dimensions of agri- cultural development and trade are essential if U.S. agriculture is to thrive. For example, detailed knowl- edge of future growth in demand and of its implica- tions for agricultural imports and exports is key to establishing a national strategy for agricultural ex- ports.
44 Integration of the agricultural sector into the inter national economy and the sector's greater reliance on the nonagricultural sector for inputs and markets mean that agriculture (and policies specific to it) is less in control of its own destiny than at any time in the past. This interdependence between the agricultural sector and other sectors of the U.S. economy is illustrated by the export of major commodities, such as wheat, corn, and soybeans, that make strongly positive contabu tions to the U.S. balance of trade. Conversely, for livestock product~lamb, pork, beef, and dairy prod ucts-the United States is a net importer. Reversing this negative balance for livestock products should be a major target of innovation and technology develop meet, which is dependent on strong R&D investment. Agriculture is becoming more dependent on other sectors of the economy at the same time it is becoming (as a percentage) a decreasing albeit still very im portant part of the overall U.S. economy. This increased interdependence makes it important to conduct research that gives a clearer understanding of Issues the broader environment of U.S. agriculture: its long term comparative advantage, the variables influenc ing its competitiveness, and the effects of macroeco . . ~ nomlc po 1cles. Domestic and international markets are also in creasingly unstable. This derives from normal bio logical or physical events and from policy instability that, in turn, results from domestic interventions. This instability is illustrated by the changes in U.S. agricul tural exports from the 1970s to the 1980s, as described above. There are several important causes for this: the global recession in the 1980s following growth in the 1970s, entry into the international market of countries previously not involved in it (such as the Soviet Union in 1972 and 1973), creation oftrade barriers to insulate domestic economies from international conditions, and monetary instability. Responding to instability within the context of internationalization and interde pendency requires, at a minimum, a better understand ing of the agricultural conditions inside other coun tries so that U.S . agricultural policy can adjust to those conditions. This ensures that economic policies such as tariffs, trade barriers, support mechanisms, and money supply and value-can be evaluated in relation to the desired vitality of the agricultural sec tor. Thus, policies cannot be pursued in isolation but must be seen in context. International negotiations under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GAIT), for example, require that domestic policies INVESTING IN RESE - CH be discussed in an international forum. On the domes- tic front, expenditures to stabilize farm income, which are valuable in the short term, may have a major effect on the long-term performance of agriculture because, with a fixed budget, as at present, such expenses preclude long-term investments in R&D that have traditionally ensured a strong economic future. The rise of support and stabilization payments from $3.5 billion in 1980 to $29.6 billion in 1986 left little room for real increases in the U.S. Department of Agricul- ture's [USDA's] R&D budget.) Therefore, considering the three trends toward internationalization, interdependence, and instability, it is important to address competitiveness and eco- nomic performance in a much broader international and national economic context than has traditionally been the case for individual commodity programs. Some have argued that U.S. agriculture has lost its inherent competitiveness. The more optimistic, and probably more realistic, view is that U.S. agriculture is, inherently, still highly competitive globally but that monetary policy and the continuously changing value of the dollar are masking that competitiveness and that inward-looking domestic policies in other countries are distorting international markets. Three issues are central to sustained competitive- ness and economic performance: (1) evaluating the competitive position of U.S. agriculture in terms of long-term comparative advantage; (2) recognizing that adding value to commodities and products is a key to competitiveness, as rising incomes shift patterns of domestic and international demand (the need to add value puts a premium on success in technological innovation and application); and (3) understanding that macroeconomic policies, probably well outside the agricultural sector, have a major effect on the vitality of agriculture. First, international competitiveness needs to be viewed as a matter of comparative advantage over the long term, not just as a short-tenn issue based on current prices and short-term policies. For example, the traditional advantage of the United States has been its bounteous endowment of high~uality farmland, coupled with early advantages from the use of petro- leum for power and as a base for agrichemicals, early technological innovativeness, and a highly effective R&D system for agriculture end food. Now, however,
CHALLENGES FACING THE RESEARCH SYSTEM much of that advantage has disappeared or is disap- pearing: petroleum-powered equipment and agri- chemicals are used throughout the world, energy prices are no longer advantageously low in the United States, technological innovation is now international, and although the U.S. agricultural sector has been effec- tive at exploiting technologies that use the land, it has not been nearly so good at adding value to agricultural products. But innovation and technological develop- ment can continue to give the United States major advantages for the major crops it produces efficiently as well as for crops that are more specialized. In fact, investment in agricultural and food R&D is especially important for U.S. competitiveness because other nations are continuing to expand their national com- mitments to agricultural R&D, whereas the United States and some other countries are not. (Global trends in research expenditures have been assessed in a speech by William R. Furtick, Director for Food and Agriculture, U.S. Agency for International Develop- ment, entitled "International Dimension for the U.S. Agricultural Research Agenda" Justice, 19891. A comprehensive data set on research investments around the world has been prepared by Pardey and Roseboom [19891.) Second, in some countries value-added exports are as high as 74 percent of total agricultural exports, whereas in the United States they are only about 30 percent. For comparative advantage in adding value, research and technology development and application are essential. The United States has been deficient in these areas in recent years, however. Will agriculture continue to be deficient relative to the innovation- oriented advances other countries are making? For research to be used as a tool to strengthen international competitiveness and help make U.S. agriculture successful in the global market, two diver- gent trends must be reconciled, or at least understood. First, a global information network is now coupled with an increasing technological and innovative ca- pacity throughout the world, and it is less possible than it once was to establish a market niche simply through production efficiency. Furthermore, market advan- tages resulting from superior technology are more difficult to establish because the innovation derived from knowledge that is available to all is now within the reach of all countries. The second trend is the private sector's increased investment in proprietary research, which attempts to keep results out of the public domain. This privatization now makes tech- nology a private good that one purchases as an input, 45 rather than a public good available as knowledge usable by all. The third issue central to competitiveness and economic performance is that a variety of macroeco- nomic policy issues affect agricultural trade: mone- lary policy, the value of national currencies, monetary instability, and trade and tariff agreements. In research terms, competitiveness in international agricultural trade faces some of the following chal- lenges: · narrowing the nation's trade deficit by improv- ing export competitiveness and expanding export de- mand; · stimulating global economic and trade growth, including a reduction in trade barriers; · reconciling national agricultural policies with the international mix of agricultural policies, thereby establishing the strategy of flexibility in setting poli- c~es; · assessing the effect that changes in economic and technical factors and in resource endowments have on import demand, availability of export supplies, and comparative advantage in agricultural production; identifying and analyzing monetary linkages among countries; assessing the implications of mone- tary phenomena for trade flows; and understanding the functioning of financial, commodity, and interna- tional capital markets; · understanding the trade-offs and linkages be- tween domestic agricultural and trade policies and removing distorting policies; · assessing and evaluating trade and the implica- tions of restrictive trade policies and practices in terms of who gains and who loses; · identifying the characteristics of international markets that discourage or encourage U.S. entry into them; · identifying economic and technological strate- gies for entering and staying in international markets; and developing cost-effective technological and man- agement strategies for allaying potentially detrimen- tal trade effects resulting from the quality of U.S. exports. National Economic Performance Inasmuch as agriculture has become international- ized and is dependent on other sectors, it does not stand alone as a sector of the national economy. It is a
46 demand-driven industry, both in its sales through international trade and in the types and amounts of value-added products it supplies domestic consumers. The future vitality of U.S. agriculture will depend partly on its international competitiveness and per- formance and partly on domestic performance and demands. Domestically, both increasing household income and changing demographic patterns such as the increasing proportion of two-employee households, the increasing use of convenience foods, and changing ethnic food preferences (National Research Council, 1988a~will affect purchases in major ways. In ad- dition, social and environmental constraints, such as concerns for food safety and environmental quality, will affect the economic performance of agriculture. There are four areas that affect national economic performance, that are the responsibility of the U.S. agricultural industry itself, and that have immediate implications for agricultural R&D: (1) the effects of policy, (2) developing new uses and markets, (3) developing value-added products, and (4) reducing producer and processor costs. Needing and Using Policy Government programs and policies are a major influence on the performance of the agricultural, food, and environmental system. As noted above in the discussion on international markets and trade, major changes in monetary, trade, and technology policies have complicated U.S. agriculture; thesepolicy issues apply domestically as well. For example, in the 1980s the direct annual cost of government farm programs and policies to the U.S. Treasury and the indirect costs to producers and the private sector of the economy reached unprecedented proportions. The need for policy reform was recognized in the early 1980s, and several major policy changes were incorporated into the 1985 omnibus 5-year farm bill (the Food Security Act of 1985~. A consensus is growing that additional policy reform will be needed to allow U.S. agriculture to take greater advantage of its inherent strengths in natural resources, human talent, technology, and marketing. Developing New Uses and Markets for Agricultural and Forest Products The production capacity of U.S. agriculture and forestry is strong. It is therefore reasonable to look to I - ESTINC IN RESEARCH that capacity to produce more goods for the country. Such a strategy would use a national resource-agri- culture and its land base as national assets. But doing so requires the development of new products and markets, which requires R&D of a type and amount that has not been done in the past. For example, biotechnology promises to produce more disease-resistant plants, and computer systems and biosensors promise to bring about greater production efficiency to the food processing industry and a higher quality of food. More specifically, biodegradable plastics should be developed more readily, and the use of ethanol as a viable oxygenated fuel should be brought closer to economic reality. This would be of major economic value for agriculture (additional profit centers and reduction in surplus commodities) and would meet major environmental objectives (less solid waste and cleaner air). Another approach would be to shift to new or different crops that could be of value. A recent example is the use of oil from rapeseed. Rapeseed oil has major health and nutrient advantages because of its high proportion of unsaturated fatty acids, permit- ting it to be substituted for the traditional, more highly hydrogenated oils. Development of varieties of rape- seed that can be produced on large acreages in the United States will provide a new production opportu- nity to U.S. producers and be a boon to consumers seeking healthier dietary patterns. Developing Value-Added Products The value of the entire agricultural and food enter- prise is about 18 percent of the nation's gross national product(GNP) (Harringtonetal., 1986~. Thus,adding value to agricultural products can have a significant effect on a major sector of the economy. Although the production sector is only about 2 percent of GNP, adding value would have a major positive effect on producers because the value-added component would expand the demand for high-quality agricultural prod- ucts. Adding value would likely have major benefits for the consumer as well. Product diversification, new processes, and con- venience packaging are all value-added activities that respond to changing consumer demands in a society that, domestically and internationally, is increasingly affluent. For example, the California almond industry has recently focused on adding value to its crop through new products and has gained major new
CHALI FNGES FACING THE RESEARCH SYSTEM markets, bringing economic success for all parts of the almond industry. The changing patterns of public and private tech- nology development present complications for decid- ing the best approach to take. Addressing the problem seems straightforward: capitalize on the large reser- voir of U.S. scientific and engineering talent and knowledge and then develop innovative technologies before others do. Selecting the most advantageous products and processes is more difficult, however. One illustrative possibility is the packaging of seeds in a fundamentally new way: Use breakthroughs in molecular and cellular genetics and tissue culture to create new plants; package the seeds or viable tissues from them with nutrients and selective pesticides into discrete, stable, and transportable biological systems; and then plant them in the usual manner. The science and technologies are becoming available for such a project, and it would give growers a major technologi- cal advantage. Reducing Producer and Processor Costs In addition to changes in policies for international trade and new uses, new crops, and value-added prod- ucts, other changes must also be made if new R&D for the agricultural, food, and environmental sector is to be of maximum value for economic performance. New ways of doing business have the potential to reduce costs and make production systems more effi- cient. Specifically, better use must be made of infor- mation, resistance to change must be overcome, de- velopment should pass expeditiously into application, and societal and environmental constraints must be addressed. Making better use of information will be especially important as the agricultural and food production systems become more dependent on more detailed and sophisticated knowledge and as the requirements of production systems increase. The use of expert deci- sionmaking systems for insect and disease manage- ment is one example, since pest control is based on a multifaceted integrated system. Another example is on-farm systems for making investment and expendi- ture decisions based on economic trends. In the political arena, information will be increasingly im- portant in making rational resource allocation deci- sions that balance farmland preservation, urban ex- pansion, amenity values, and public infrastructure investments in the face of inexorable population pres- sures in metropolitan areas. 47 Information is crucial for simultaneously main- taining farm profitability and meeting environmental conservation goals, such as preservation and steward- ship of natural resources and sustaining the quality of soil and water systems for agriculture. Also needed are new analytical tools for monitoring plant and animal growth and health, determining cost-effective Inputs tor optimum growth, determining cost-effec- tive agrichemical inputs, and minimizing plant and animal disease. Overcoming resistance to change, like making better use of information, is likely to become more, not less, important. Change will permit producers and processors to be competitive with change-oriented foreign competitors. Willingness to change will be particularly important for the public given the pub lic's wariness of technological effects and its ambiva- lence toward new technologies-as R&D develops more production systems based on the results of the newer biological and technological advances. Ex- amples include recombinant DNA technologies for improved plants and animals and automation and technological systems that make it possible to replace more labor with equipment. Willingness to change will be important for government, as permits, product approvals, and regulatory guidelines are developed and applied to new products and uses. Overcoming resistance to change, or at least dealing with it in an informed way, will be essential for U.S. agricultural competitiveness and economic performance. Economic advantage also depends on being able to pass expeditiously from development into application with new products and processes. Much economic advantage is associated with securing market position rapidly; indeed, some businesses believe that product development and market position are substantially more important than patentprotection. A recentreport of the National Academy of Engineering (1989) high- lighted this need: Recent U.S. industrial performance in global competition dem- onstrates clearly that other nations often do a better job of using both product and process technology for competitive advantage. The United States may be the world's greatest inventor nation, but other nations are now often better at applying technology, better at product and process engineering. Dealing with societal and environmental constraints as part of the normal production process is also essen- tial for optimal performance. For example, polluting production practices- such as the use of natural and
48 chemical fertilizers that leach into groundwater sup- plies and pesticides that contaminate environments and produce-are increasingly identified for regula- tory or remedial action. Eliminating such practices, for example, by using sustainable agricultural sys- tems, reduces direct costs to producers and indirect costs and concern to consumers. Such changes will come about, however, only when physical, biological, and social R&D is sufficient so that the form and effects of the optimal systems can be known with precision and farmers can make informed judgments. Challenges The economic performance of the nation's agricul- tural and food sectors depends on overcoming a vari- ety of challenges: · determining the optimal strategies for securing comparative advantage through value-added ap- proaches using science and technology; understanding the biological and physical prop- erties of plants and animals that are most advanta- geously manipulated, so that economically useful new uses of major crops can be developed and additional nutrient qualities can be designed into foods; · establishing a national strategy for proceeding from a commodity-based to a value-added agricul- tural and food sector; raising per-capita income among farmers and lessening their reliance on government payments; creating jobs, particularly in export-oriented, value-added industries; understanding personal and societal resistance to change so that a more efficacious system can be established for utilizing new information and technol- ogy; developing management skills and practices for reducing costs in both the producing and the process- ing sectors; · developing effective R&D systems that acceler- ate the conversion of science and engineering results into practicable use; and ensuring an optimal delivery system for applying knowledge and technologies. HUMAN HEALTH AND WELL-BEING The health of U.S. citizens depends on the quality and quantity of the U.S. food supply and on the food choices people make. In turn, the ability to create I^ESTING IN RESEARCH more nutritious food largely depends on R&D in nutrition, food science and technology, and related health disciplines. Scientists must also find ways of inculcating optimal dietary habits. Given the strong relationship between nutrition and health, improving the diet of Americans is clearly a top priority for producers, food processors, and consumers. For example, a January 1989 survey of more than 1,000 shoppers revealed that 94 percent were "somewhat concemed" or "very concerned" about the nutritional content of the foods they eat (Food Marketing Institute, 1989~. The top concerns were about fat, salt, cholesterol, vitamins, minerals, and sugar. Given this concern about nutrition by so many people, it is ironic that poor health and disease in millions of Americans can often be traced to inap- propriate dietary patterns, including excessive or in- adequate consumption of particular macronutrients, minerals, vitamins, or dietary fiber (see Table 4.1~. For example, increased energy intake, decreased energy expenditure leading to obesity, or both can be a severe problem, especially among certain segments of the population. Moreover, although the overall quality of the U.S. food supply is high, pesticide and microbio- logical contamination may occasionally pose risks to some consumers. Designing Food Products for Improved Health The nutritional and food sciences have made great strides in identifying some dietary risk factors for certain diseases (see Table 4.1) and in developing nutritionally improved food products. Still, the com- plex interplay among life-styles, human behavior, and changing patterns of food consumption makes it diffi- cult to engineer adequate nutritional levels for all Americans into the food supply. Few people now consume too little protein or vitamin C, yet many continue to consume too many calories and too many saturated fats. In certain respects, however, diets have improved somewhat during the 1980s. Table 4.2 shows the percentage of selected population groups that met nutritional targets in 1985. Among adult women, between 1977-1978 and 1985, the percentage of calo- nes in the diet from fat declined from about41 percent, on average, to 37 percent (see Tables 34 and 3-5 in National Research Council, 1988a). The percentage of people consuming less than 30 percent of their calories in the form of fat the maximum level of fat consumption recommended by government agencies
CHALLENGES FACING THE RESEARCH SYSTEM TABLE 4.1 Ten Leading Causes of Death in the United States, 1987 Percentage of Total Rank Cause of Death Number Death la Heart disease759,40035.7 Coronary511,70024.1 Other247,70011.6 2a Cancer76,70022.4 3a Stroke148,7007.0 46 Unintentional injury92,5004.4 Motor vehicle46,8002.2 All others45,7002.2 5 Chronic obstructive lung disease78,0003.7 6 Pneumonia and influenza68,6003.2 7a Diabetes mellitus37,8001.8 8b Suicide29,6001.4 9b Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis26,0001.2 lea Atherosclerosis23,1001.1 All causes2,125,100100.0 aCause of death in which diet plays a part. bCause of death in which excessive alcohol consumption plays a part. SOURCE: Estimates adapted from the National Center for Health Statistics. 1988. Monthly Vital Statistics Report, Vol. 37, No. 1, April 25. Washington, D.C.: National Center for Health Staiisucs. end private medical associations increased from be tween 5 and 10 percent to between 12 and 15 percent in most age groups (see Tables 3-3 and 34 in National Research Council, 1988a). Other dietary challenges remain, however, as illus- trated by the problems of calcium and iron deficien- cies. Calcium is important for normal body metal lism and is particularly important in the bone develop- ment of children; it is also important for the achieve- ment of peak bone mass in adults to decrease the risk of osteoporosis. Currently, however, 25 percent of children aged 1 to 8, 58 percent of adult women, and 32 percent of adult males consume 70 percent or less of their 1980 recommended dietary allowance (RDA) of calcium (see Table 3.12 in National Research Council, l98Sa). Iron deficiency can reduce a person ' s energy, impair the immune response, and in children, reduce intellec- tual performance and development (Federation of 49 American Societies for Experimental Biology, Life Sciences Research Office, 1984~. Currently, how- ever,44 percept ofchildren aged 1 to ~ and 56 percept of adult women consume 70 percent or less of the 1980 RDA for iron (see Table 3-17 in National Re- search Council, 198Sa). The examples of calcium and iron demonstrate the dual problem facing those who seek to modify the diet of the average American: Consumption of fat, choles- terol, and sodium should fall, whereas consumption of iron, calcium, and certain other vitamins and minerals often need to increase. Trade-offs would seem neces- sary because many animal food products are both pelt of the problem (high in fat and cholesterol) and part of the solution (high in calcium and available iron). However, in recent years the emergence of leaner cuts of meat and of many low- and nonfat dairy products has given consumers valuable new options for reduc- ing their intake of fat and cholesterol while still getting
so INVESTING IN RESEARCH TABLE 4.2 Percentage of Population Groups Meeting Nutritional Goals, Based on the 1984-1985 USDA Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individualsa Percent Making Goal for Fat Cholesterol Calcium Iron Population Group (Goal, < 30% of (Goal, < 300 (Goal, RDAs (Goal, RDAs and Age calones) mg/day) by age group) by age group) Children (ages 1-5) 156 776 48 38 Women 19-34 13 62 NA NA 35-50 12 62 NA NA All (ages 19-50) 12 62 19C 18c NOTE: NA, Data not available. aCalculations are based on 1980 RDAs. The figure for women meeting 70 percent of the 1989 RDA for iron will be slightly greater because of the decrease in that RDA. To ensure good growth in the early years of life, some authorities consider it inadvisable for children less than 2 years of age to limit fat intake to less than or equal to 30 percent of total calories. Furthermore, the desirable cholesterol intake for children less than 2 years of age has not yet been established. CCalcium and iron data reported for children aged 1 to 8 and for waned aged 19 to 64. SOURCE: Calorie data are from Table 3-3, cholesterol data are from Table 3-11, calcium data are from Table 3-12, and iron data are from Table 3-17 in National Research Council. 1988a. Designing Foods: Animal Product Options in the Marketplace. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. an adequate daily allowance of essential vitamins and minerals (for a thorough discussion of the subject, see National Research Council, 1988a, 1989b). Challenges While Americans are still advised to consume a variety of wholesome foods in moderation, there are also significant research challenges: · determining the optimal period of time during which diets should be balanced with respect to indi- vidual nutrients; developing ways to identify and quantify dietary patterns over long periods as a basis for epidemiologi- cal understanding of the connection between cancer and other diseases and diet; developing technologies to improve foods and incentives to improve dietary patterns so they are adequate for long-term maintenance of good health; continuing to expand the nutrient data base of food composition and nutrient bioavailability for the food supply; continuing nutrition monitoring, with renewed emphasis on populations for whom little data are available (e.g., the elderly); and establishing agency authority for ensuring the quality of the food supply. Food Safety Product safety is considered a "very important" or "somewhat important" factor in food selection, as indicated by 90 percent of the respondents in a 1989 survey of 1,000 shoppers referred to above (Food Marketing Institute, 1989~. Although this concern is appropriate, it is difficult for the public to evaluate risks. In some cases, even when risks are exception- ally low, public concern, is difficult to allay once it is aroused. Private industry is challenged to develop improved quality control processes; and government inspectors and regulators need more convenient, sen
CHALLENGES FACING THE RESEARCH SYSTEM sitive, and timely tools and methods for monitoring and protecting the safety of the food supply. The food safety agenda is dynamic, pushing hard at the borders of scientific detection, risk assessment, and risk management. Decisionmakers and reaula- tory scientists must call upon a wide range of scientific skills in defining safe, acceptable levels of pathogenic organisms, toxins, and chemical residues in food products and in determining how best to keep risks at or below safe levels. Fortunately, rapid scientific advances are making the task more manageable. For example, it is now more frequently possible to detect, trace, and avoid circumstances that lead to potentially hazardous levels of pesticide and drug residues in food or water. In addition, a powerful new biotechnology technique-the genetic fingerprinting of strains of bacteria and viruses- gives scientists a major new tool to use in foodborne disease outbreaks. With that tool, the sources of illnesses increasingly can be traced to a particular food manufacturing plant or even to a particular producer. Epidemiologists then have a much more realistic opportunity to recognize where and how to intervene to improve food safety. Three issues are of major concern: pesticide resi- dues, microbiological contamination, and risk assess- ment and management. Pesticide Residues Even though nonchemical methods of pest control (through expansion of sustainable agriculture and integrated pest management systems) will be use increasingly, residues of chemical pesticides will continue to be a major concern for the indefinite future. These challenges are growing more urgent and complex for several reasons. First, new toxicological data on several dozen older pesticides are emerging and, in some cases, are raising the estimates and perceptions of risk. Second, as analytical methods of detection improve and as government agencies and the private sector monitor pesticides more intensively, pesticide residues are being detected with an increas- ing frequency in food and water, usually at very low levels. Third, risk assessment methods are beginning to take into account unique risk factors in certain population groups that may be more heavily exposed or susceptible to toxic agents-pregnant women, the young, the elderly, members of certain ethnic groups, farm workers, and people who have impaired immune responses or who are undergoing chemotherapy. 51 Challenges · improving methods for estimating dietary risk from pesticide residues and pathogens; · developing furtherincentives throughout the food system from growers to marketers- for ensuring that pesticide residues and microbiological contami- nation are eliminated from the food supply; · developinginstitutions end mechanisms that will provide a good understanding of the risks pertaining to the food supply; · accelerating and intensifying the search for and development of nonchemical pest control methods, including the use of endogenous pesticides produced by the plants themselves, with the necessary genes obtained through classical breeding or recombinant DNA methods; and · being able to communicate the concept of rela- tive risk effectively to government officials and con- sumers so that informed choices can be made. Microbiological Contamination More than 50 percent of the 2,666 outbreaks of foodborne disease reported to the Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta, Georgia, from 1968 to 1977 were attributed to meat and poultry contamination alone (Bryan, 1980~. However, the reported data are likely to represent only a small fraction of the true incidence of foodborne disease in the United States (Hauschild and Bryan, 1980; National Research Council, 1969~. When a contaminated food product is widely distrib- uted and eaten at different times and places, outbreaks may be difficult to detect. This is particularly true of diseases for which there is no epidemiological marker, so that strains recovered from infected individuals and from foods cannot be compared. Pasteurized foods may still harbor spores that can germinate and multiply if pasteurization is insuffi- cient. Certain pathogens, such as Salmonella species, Campylobacter jejuni, and Clostridium perfringens, are spread to carcasses and cuts of meat or to parts of poultry from infected tissues or contaminated surfaces of animals during slaughtering and processing. The microorganisms are then conveyed through addition- ally processed raw meat and poultry into food-service establishments end homes. Cross-contamination may continue and other foods may become contaminated during food preparation in home kitchens. The inap- propriate use of newer methods of food preparation (i.e., microwave cooking) may also create problems;
52 for example, cooking times may be insufficient to deactivate foodborne pathogens. With additional research, new technologies (some derived from biotechnology) can be applied to meat and poultry inspections and to surveillance of the food supply in general. These approaches give a means of identifying infectious agents with a high specificity that was not possible 5 to 10 years ago. Areas of investigation and application in biotechnology in- clude recombinant DNA technology, monoclonal antibody technologies, and enzyme-linked immuno- sorbent assays. Challenges improving the epidemiological and monitoring programs so that foodborne diseases and outbreaks can be traced; improving the detection systems for microbially contaminated foods, particularly meat and poultry products; and · increasing the quality and performance of the analytical methods forrisk assessment end policies for risk management. Risk Assessment and Management During the past two to three decades, the concerns of the public health and environmental communities have shifted dramatically, as have thepublic'spercep- tion and understanding of the relative importance of various types of threats to its health and safety. The political reaction to research results and to the public 's heightened awareness has led to legislation on food and drugs, occupational safety and health, and the environment. Regulatory actions are based on two processes: risk assessment and risk management. In risk assess- ment, the probability of potentially adverse health effects from exposure to hazards is assessed. In risk management, alternative regulatory and other actions are evaluated and a selection is made from among them, guided by risk assessment information and other considerations (National Research Council, 1983b). A variety of scientific questions must be answered in risk assessments: Does the agent have an adverse effect? What is the relationship between dose and response? What exposures are currently experienced or expected under different conditions? What is the estimated incidence of the adverse effect in a given population? INVESTING IN RESEARCH Because of the current state of knowledge, risks projected by regulatory agencies may be derived by methods for which there is a limited means of valida- tion. In addition, current methods of collecting infor- mation about harmful effects often rely upon postu- lated levels of exposure, sometimes under conditions that do not match and may be far in excess of actual environmental exposures (International Life Sciences Institute, 1987~. Challenges · developing additional and more exact methods for evaluating risks; examples include methods to test for mutagenicity and teratogenicity using model organisms,and enzymatic models and methods when the modes of action of an agent are specifically known; · examining every facet of the agricultural, food, and environmental system to determine the most ef- fective points of intervention to remove risks from the system; · developing ways of removing the risk from the presence of harmful chemicals in food; and · developing substantially more effective and timely systems for communicating actual and relative risks to those in government and industry and to the public. NATURAL RESOURCES STEWARDSHIP Natural resources include the living as well as nonliving components of the environment. Natural resources stewardship is the responsible and prudent caring for natural resources by the people and agen- cies, public and private, whose actions affect those resources directly or indirectly. Implicit in natural resources stewardship is the belief that the resources must be sustained and enhanced for the benefit of future generations. Environmental protection by responsibly caring for natural resources is an increasingly critical eco- nomic and cultural consideration in agriculture, for- estry, and other land management systems and prac- tices. The ways in which farmers, ranchers, foresters, and other public and private landowners use and manage soil, water, wildlife, croplands, forestlands, rangelands, wetlands, parks, wildlife, and landscapes increasingly affect natural resources stewardship. The effects of agriculture and forestry on steward- ship vary enormously across the landscapes of the United States. On much of the nation's agricultural lands, rangelands, forestlands, and parklands, effec
CHALI~NCES FACING THE RESEARCH SYSTEM live resource conservation systems are commonly used. These systems sustain site productivity, control soil erosion, conserve water, improve recreational potential, and enhance wildlife habitats. In many areas of the country, however, intensity of use is greater than the carrying capacity of the land; the same land, water, wildlife, and recreational resources are claimed for competing uses; long-term sustainability conflicts with short-term profitability; and external effects such as those of farming practices on water quality, amenity values, or wildlife populations are not always adequately considered. Identifying and understanding these effects and conflicts and develop- ing improved natural resource conservation and management systems and technologies to deal with them are key goals of natural resources stewardship. Some of the scientific and management challenges in natural resources stewardship are discussed below. Water Quality and Quantity Water is becoming a top resource management priority, likely taking precedence over soil erosion in the decades ahead. The agricultural sector is the largest user of the water resources of the nation, using 104 million acre- feet per year for irrigated agriculture and 2.5 million acre-feet per year for livestock production, or 77 and 1.9 percent, respectively, of the total of approximately 135 million acre-feet used in the United States annu- ally. In 17 western states, irrigated agriculture ac- counts for almost 86 percent of water consumption. Water is also an important output in the management of forestlands, parklands, and rangelands, affecting both water quality and quantity for downstream users. Thus, farmers, foresters, ranchers, and park managers all share an important responsibility for protecting water quality and conserving water quantity. Contaminants from a variety of agricultural and forest practices negatively affect water quality, in- cluding pesticide contamination of groundwaters; accumulation of nitrates from both manure and chemi- cal fertilizers in groundwater and surface waters; ac- cumulation of salts in frequently irrigated lands; accu- mulation of toxic metals-especially selenium, cad- mium, molybdenum, arsenic, and boron in runoff and drainage waters from some irrigated lands; and sediments from soil erosion. In addition to the specific effects of the pollutants themselves on the bodies of water into which they travel and on downstream users, there are also four 53 management considerations. First, much of the sur- face water contamination results largely, if not exclu- sively, from nonpoint source pollution. Controlling such sources of pollution is difficult, and such pollu- tion from agricultural and forestry practices has gen- erally been exempt from regulation, but this may not continue. Second, groundwater contamination results from both point and nonpoint sources. Given the difficulty of controlling nonpoint sources of contami- nation, the long-tenn quality of some groundwater systems may be in doubt. Third, cross-media contami- nation of water sources can result from attempts to deal with pollution in other media, such as land and air. For example, leachates from solid and hazardous waste facilities can pollute groundwater, effluents into the atmosphere from urban and-industrial facilities (e.g., acidic deposition and ozone) affect both water- sheds and crops, and aerial deposition of toxic haloge- nated hydrocarbons from landfills and other sources can toxify surface waters. Fourth, to the extent that pollution worsens the quality of surface or groundwa- ter resources, the usable quantity of water decreases. Challenges developing cost-effective agricultural and forest management systems that minimize or, preferably, eliminate surface and groundwater pollution: from both point and nonpoint sources; · devising land management practices that reduce or eliminate the transport of pollutants through surface and subsurface flows and assessing the quantitative effects of such practices; · developing methods for increasing water yields and availability while minimizing water quality deg- radation; · using irrigation waters more efficiently; · designing innovative systems for restoring water quality and preventing contamination from nonpoint sources; developing cost-effective remediation systems; and understanding the economic and social effects of possible abatement, remediation, and agricultural production strategies. Water quantity has become a difficult issue for the agricultural sector in more and more parts of the country. The agricultural sectorneeds water,butso do the growing urban populations. Competition for wafer
54 throughout the 48 contiguous states is increasing, and the agricultural sector is not always well positioned to compete against rapidly increasing urban pressures and demands for environmental quality. Contamination of water supplies, including ground- water reserves, reduces the quantity of usable water. Some regions, particularly the western states, have water quantity problems because of overdrafting of aquifers. Even more seriously for some parts of the country, such as the high plains overlying the nonre- chargeable Ogallala aquifer, increased pumping lifts, the associated increased pumping costs, and the long- term prospects of far less water are forcing a transition away from intensively irrigated crops. Finally, the competition between the agricultural and urban sec- torsforavailablewaterisbecomingincreasingly strong in the western states. If more of the available water continues to be shifted to the urban and industrial sectors and if users- including agricultural users- continue to be charged more of the full costs for delivering water, new crop production and water management practices must be developed to maintain profitability in the face of reduced and more costly water supplies. Challenges Challenges for ensuring adequate water supplies for both agricultural and urban sectors include the following: devising more effective and flexible institutions (e.g., laws, policies, rules, and organizations) for managing scarce water resources; · understanding legal principles and market mecha- nisms and their usefulness for allocating water re- sources; devising systems of rights and entitlements that allow for adequate responses to droughts and long- term climatic changes so that both agricultural and urban sectors are sustained; and · understanding the potential of water conserva- tion in the agricultural and municipal sectors and developing systems and incentives for conservation. Soil Resources In past decades, agriculture's main goal in the area of natural resource stewardship was to control soil erosion. In the 1980s,thatwasUSDA'smainresource management priority ((J.S. Department of Agncul INVESTINC IN RESEARCH sure, 1989b). The Food Security Act of 1985 included provisions for a major new conservation program, the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), and sodbuster and conservation compliance policies that promised to greatly reduce erosion on croplands identified as highly erodible. The 10-year CRP was estimated to entail expenditures of about $25 billion and is indica- tive of the nation's willingness to invest new funds in resource stewardship, even in an era of fiscal restraint. Productive soils are lost to agriculture and forestry in the United States at an alarming rate. Four factors are involved: (1) erosion by water and wind; (2) contamination with toxic metals and persistent pesti- cides; (3) salinization after prolonged irrigation of croplands; (4) and permanent conversion to residen- tial and commercial development, transportation and electricity transmission corridors, and impoundments. Soil productivity can also be lost by farming practices that compact soils, harm soil filth, and exhaust soil fertility. Challenges · developing erosion prediction models that ac- count for all forms of water and wind erosion and thus give realistic estimates of soil losses for individual events and total annual losses; · developing realistic methods for assessing off- site effects of agricultural land use and management practices and construction, urban, and industrial op- erations; · developing improved economic analyses of the costs and benefits of soil and water conservation practices; · improving methods for reclaiming heavily dis- turbed lands; · understanding the ecology of soil macro- and microorganisms, how agricultural and forestry prac- tices modify their populations, and how beneficial consortia of organisms can be maintained; · developing alternative cropping systems and management practices to minimize the loss and degra- dation of soil resources; · increasing the use of education, regulation, and public awareness programs in altering local, state, regional, and federal policies that may favor poor land use decisions in the planning of residential expansion, transportation corridors, and reservoirs; and determining the societal costs of alternative land use patterns (e.g., costs for public transportation and public services).
l CNAL~FNGES FACING THE RESEARCH SYSTEM Global Atmospheric Change Various human activities are changing the chemi- cal and physical climate of the earth. The combustion of fossil fuels to generate electricity, propel vehicles, and provide power to industries and residences is the largest single source of airborne pollutant chemicals that affect crops and forests. Chemicals that pollute the air include toxic gases, such as ozone, sulfur and nitrogen oxides, and fluoride. These substances are known to have negative effects on crops and forests. Other airborne chemicals include the so-called green- house gases, such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbons. These substances are changing the chemical climate of the earth and are said to be inducing a general warming of the earth's climate and the increasingly severe extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods. Certain agricultural and forest practices contribute to the release of greenhouse gases. Use of Daddv systems for the cultivation of rice leads to the release of nitrous oxides. Ruminant animal populations re- lease large amounts of methane. Slash and burn techniques or the harvesting of forest trees leads to the increased accumulation of carbon dioxide in the at- mosphere, which may lead to changes in photosynthe- sis and in the water use efficiency of crop plants and forest trees. Thus, agricultural and forestry scientists have a major contribution to make in understanding both the effects of global climatic change on agricul- ture and forestry and the effects of agriculture and forestry on the chemical and physical climate of the earth. Challenges Challenges for minimizing the effects of agricul- ture and forestry on climate and vice versa include the following: · understanding more fully how forestand agricul- tural crops respond to changes in precipitation pat- terns and climatic warming; · determining how airpollutantsaffectsoils,plants, and microorganisms and understanding theirresponse mechanisms to such stress factors; determining the role of natural emissions from vegetation in the formation of ozone and other photo- chemical oxidants; and determining how projected increases in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere may compensate for cli 55 mate-induced losses in crop productivity and species diversity. Biological and Genetic Diversity Managing resources and activities to ensure bio- logical and genetic diversity is easy to mandate but hard to do. Maintaining genetic diversity in agricul- tural crops is desirable in principle but hard to achieve in the face of market demands for uniformity in product quality and farmers' demands for convenient methods of raising crops. Before the goals of main- taining biological and genetic diversity can be met, many scientific questions need to be answered. What constitutes diversity? How much of it is needed? Over what areas should biological diversity be maintained? What is the role of genetics research in maintaining biological diversity? How will specific management practices affect ecosystem diversity? What are the implications for and uses of the principles of biotech- nology in maintaining, expanding, and changing genetic diversity? Challenges . · conserving and using natural genetic diversity so that new species can be found and used for beneficial purposes, such as new biocontrol systems; identifying genes and creating new genetic di- versity by traditional and molecular genetic means; · transferring genes to susceptible plant and ani- mal species to create new properties, such as host re- sistance for biocontrol systems; · developing methods to measure biodiversity in forest and agricultural ecosystems; · developing methods by which indices of diver- sity can be included in ecosystem inventory proce- dures; · expending existing research on ecologically teased systems for classification of forest sites; · developing genetically engineered crops and for- est trees that are tolerant of stress, parasites, and pathogens; and · integrating the conservation of biodiversity, especially endangered species, with sustainable agri- cultural and forest production practices. Ecosystem Structure and Function [retailed knowledge of an ecosystem's structure and function is essential for optimum management of
56 that ecosystem. When choosing among alternative systems, it is essential to understand the transfer and cycling of energy and nutrients through the various living and nonliving components of these systems. Empirical studies have provided data bases for various specific agricultural and forest production systems, but these information resources often are not adequate for the quantitative assessment of alternative manage- ment systems that are designed not to maximize yields per unit area of land but, rather, to achieve maximum efficiency of production over time or to meet long- term, external social and environmental objectives. Further synthesis and integration of existing infor- mation and the synthesis of such information with the results of new, more mathematically and conceptually sound studies of ecosystem processes will help ensure that future crop and fores/management systems can be economically profitable, environmentally sound, and socially acceptable. Challenges developing integrated understanding of the bio- geochemical cycles and nutrient cycling in agricul- tural and other managed ecosystems similar to the understanding of more natural systems; · developing management systems that optimize the use of energy, water, and nutrients in agricultural and forest production ecosystems; · developing strategies to achieve a sustainable production capacity and species diversity within eco- systems, while supporting mixtures of market and nonmarket values acceptable to society; understanding the mechanisms that act to limit ecosystem degradation after disturbances; and · characterizing relationships between ecosys- tems particularly terrestrial and aquatic ecosys- tems-so that they can be managed to meet societal goals. Pests and Pesticides Pests and diseases claim a large portion of global and U.S. agricultural production. To keep that per- centage from going even higher, farmers now apply pesticides on most cultivated cropland in the United States. Crops in hot, humid regions of the country- particularly fresh fruits and vegetables, which must meet strict cosmetic standards may be sprayed a WRESTING IN RESEARCH dozen or more times with a variety of different crop protection chemicals. During the past two decades, chemical control strategies have become steadily more costly in terms of economics, food safety, the environment, end public confidence. In some instances, these strategies are no longer socially sustainable. Challenges · understanding plant-pest interactions and natu- ral defense mechanisms so that biological control alternatives can be developed; · developing new technologies to reduce pesticide use and residue levels in foods; · finding innovative ways to control pests using cultural practices~rop rotation, alternative tillage systems, mechanical cultivation, and integrated pest management; and developing improved applications technologies. Progress in meeting these challenges will markedly decrease the use of pesticides, lessen the severity of water quality problems, lower the costs of pest control, and serve as a foundation for sustainable production systems. Waste Management A national crisis is developing over the careless- ness with which waste materials are produced, handled, and disposed. As more landfills reach capacity, pres- sures grow for some of the waste materials includ- ing plant and animal residues, food processing wastes, sewage and industrial sludges, and municipal solid wastes- to be applied to agricultural and forestlands Challenges · developing ways to minimize and eliminate the production of wastes; · developing technologies to increase the recy- cling of waste materials; · developing better systems by which the wastes that are produced can be handled safely and disposed of by means that are economical and both ecologically and socially acceptable; and · understanding the long-term implications for soil sustainability from the application of wastes to the land.
