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TRANSIT
TCRP
SYNTHESIS 66
COOPERATIVE
RESEARCH
PROGRAM
Sponsored by
the Federal
Transit Administration
Fixed-Route Transit
Ridership Forecasting and
Service Planning Methods
A Synthesis of Transit Practice
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TCRP OVERSIGHT AND PROJECT TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2006 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE*
SELECTION COMMITTEE*
CHAIR OFFICERS
DAVID A. LEE
Connecticut Transit Chair: Michael D. Meyer, Professor, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia
Institute of Technology, Atlanta
MEMBERS Vice Chair: Linda S. Watson, Executive Director, LYNX--Central Florida Regional Transportation
ANN AUGUST Authority, Orlando
Santee Wateree Regional Transportation Executive Director: Robert E. Skinner, Jr., Transportation Research Board
Authority
LINDA J. BOHLINGER MEMBERS
HNTB Corp.
ROBERT I. BROWNSTEIN MICHAEL W. BEHRENS, Executive Director, Texas DOT, Austin
PB Consult, Inc. ALLEN D. BIEHLER, Secretary, Pennsylvania DOT, Harrisburg
PETER CANNITO JOHN D. BOWE, Regional President, APL Americas, Oakland, CA
Metropolitan Transportation Authority--Metro
North Railroad
LARRY L. BROWN, SR., Executive Director, Mississippi DOT, Jackson
GREGORY COOK DEBORAH H. BUTLER, Vice President, Customer Service, Norfolk Southern Corporation
Ann Arbor Transportation Authority and Subsidiaries, Atlanta, GA
NATHANIEL P. FORD ANNE P. CANBY, President, Surface Transportation Policy Project, Washington, DC
San Francisco MUNI DOUGLAS G. DUNCAN, President and CEO, FedEx Freight, Memphis, TN
RONALD L. FREELAND NICHOLAS J. GARBER, Henry L. Kinnier Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University
Booz Allen Hamilton, Inc. of Virginia, Charlottesville
FRED M. GILLIAM ANGELA GITTENS, Vice President, Airport Business Services, HNTB Corporation, Miami, FL
Capital Metropolitan Transportation Authority GENEVIEVE GIULIANO, Professor and Senior Associate Dean of Research and Technology,
KIM R. GREEN
GFI GENFARE School of Policy, Planning, and Development, and Director, METRANS National Center
JILL A. HOUGH for Metropolitan Transportation Research, University of Southern California, Los Angeles
North Dakota State University SUSAN HANSON, Landry University Professor of Geography, Graduate School of Geography,
JOHN INGLISH Clark University, Worcester, MA
Utah Transit Authority JAMES R. HERTWIG, President, CSX Intermodal, Jacksonville, FL
JEANNE W. KRIEG GLORIA J. JEFF, General Manager, City of Los Angeles DOT, Los Angeles, CA
Eastern Contra Costa Transit Authority ADIB K. KANAFANI, Cahill Professor of Civil Engineering, University of California, Berkeley
CELIA G. KUPERSMITH HAROLD E. LINNENKOHL, Commissioner, Georgia DOT, Atlanta
Golden Gate Bridge, Highway and
Transportation District SUE McNEIL, Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of
CLARENCE W. MARSELLA Delaware, Newark
Denver Regional Transportation District DEBRA L. MILLER, Secretary, Kansas DOT, Topeka
FAYE L. M. MOORE MICHAEL R. MORRIS, Director of Transportation, North Central Texas Council of
Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Governments, Arlington
Authority CAROL A. MURRAY, Commissioner, New Hampshire DOT, Concord
MICHAEL H. MULHERN JOHN R. NJORD, Executive Director, Utah DOT, Salt Lake City
Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority PETE K. RAHN, Director, Missouri DOT, Jefferson City
Retirement Fund
STEPHANIE L. PINSON SANDRA ROSENBLOOM, Professor of Planning, University of Arizona, Tucson
Gilbert Tweed Associates, Inc. HENRY GERARD SCHWARTZ, JR., Senior Professor, Washington University, St. Louis, MO
ROBERT H. PRINCE, JR. MICHAEL S. TOWNES, President and CEO, Hampton Roads Transit, Hampton, VA
DMJM+Harris C. MICHAEL WALTON, Ernest H. Cockrell Centennial Chair in Engineering, University of
JEFFREY M. ROSENBERG Texas, Austin
Amalgamated Transit Union
MICHAEL SCANLON EX OFFICIO MEMBERS
San Mateo County Transit District
BEVERLY SCOTT THAD ALLEN (Adm., U.S. Coast Guard), Commandant, U.S. Coast Guard, Washington, DC
Sacramento Regional Transit District THOMAS J. BARRETT (Vice Adm., U.S. Coast Guard, ret.), Pipeline and Hazardous Materials
JAMES S. SIMPSON Safety Administrator, U.S.DOT
FTA MARION C. BLAKEY, Federal Aviation Administrator, U.S.DOT
FRANK TOBEY JOSEPH H. BOARDMAN, Federal Railroad Administrator, U.S.DOT
First Transit JOHN BOBO, Deputy Administrator, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, U.S.DOT
KATHRYN D. WATERS
Dallas Area Rapid Transit
REBECCA M. BREWSTER, President and COO, American Transportation Research Institute,
FRANK WILSON Smyrna, GA
Metropolitan Transit Authority of Harris GEORGE BUGLIARELLO, Chancellor, Polytechnic University of New York, Brooklyn,
County and Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Engineering, Washington, DC
J. RICHARD CAPKA, Federal Highway Administrator, U.S.DOT
EX OFFICIO MEMBERS SEAN T. CONNAUGHTON, Maritime Administrator, U.S.DOT
WILLIAM W. MILLAR
APTA
EDWARD R. HAMBERGER, President and CEO, Association of American Railroads,
ROBERT E. SKINNER, JR. Washington, DC
TRB JOHN H. HILL, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administrator, U.S.DOT
JOHN C. HORSLEY JOHN C. HORSLEY, Executive Director, American Association of State Highway and Transportation
AASHTO Officials, Washington, DC
J. RICHARD CAPKA J. EDWARD JOHNSON, Director, Applied Science Directorate, National Aeronautics
FHWA and Space Administration, John C. Stennis Space Center, MS
TDC EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR WILLIAM W. MILLAR, President, American Public Transportation Association, Washington, DC
LOUIS SANDERS NICOLE R. NASON, National Highway Traffic Safety Administrator, U.S.DOT
APTA JEFFREY N. SHANE, Under Secretary for Policy, U.S.DOT
JAMES S. SIMPSON, Federal Transit Administrator, U.S.DOT
SECRETARY CARL A. STROCK (Maj. Gen., U.S. Army), Chief of Engineers and Commanding General,
ROBERT J. REILLY
TRB U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, DC
*Membership as of September 2006. *Membership as of September 2006.
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TRANSIT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM
TCRP SYNTHESIS 66
Fixed-Route Transit Ridership Forecasting and
Service Planning Methods
A Synthesis of Transit Practice
CONSULTANT
DANIEL BOYLE
Dan Boyle & Associates
San Diego, California
S UBJECT A REAS
Public Transit
Research Sponsored by the Federal Transit Administration in Cooperation with
the Transit Development Corporation
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD
WASHINGTON, D.C.
2006
www.TRB.org
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TRANSIT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM TCRP SYNTHESIS 66
The nation's growth and the need to meet mobility, environ- Price $31.00
mental, and energy objectives place demands on public transit
Project J-7, Topic SH-06
systems. Current systems, some of which are old and in need of
ISSN 1073-4880
upgrading, must expand service area, increase service frequency, ISBN 0-309-09772-X
and improve efficiency to serve these demands. Research is nec- Library of Congress Control Number 2006906643
essary to solve operating problems, to adapt appropriate new
technologies from other industries, and to introduce innovations © 2006 Transportation Research Board
into the transit industry. The Transit Cooperative Research Pro-
gram (TCRP) serves as one of the principal means by which the
transit industry can develop innovative near-term solutions to COPYRIGHT PERMISSION
meet demands placed on it. Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for
The need for TCRP was originally identified in TRB Special obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the
Report 213--Research for Public Transit: New Directions, pub- copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein.
lished in 1987 and based on a study sponsored by the Federal Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce
Transit Administration (FTA). A report by the American Public material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes.
Transportation Association (APTA), Transportation 2000, also Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be
recognized the need for local, problem-solving research. TCRP, used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FMCSA, FTA, or Transit
modeled after the longstanding and successful National Coopera- Development Corporation endorsement of a particular product, method, or
tive Highway Research Program, undertakes research and other practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document
for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment
technical activities in response to the needs of transit service provid-
of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the
ers. The scope of TCRP includes a variety of transit research material, request permission from CRP.
fields including planning, service configuration, equipment, fa-
cilities, operations, human resources, maintenance, policy, and ad-
ministrative practices.
NOTICE
TCRP was established under FTA sponsorship in July 1992.
Proposed by the U.S. Department of Transportation, TCRP was The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the Transit Coop-
authorized as part of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Effi- erative Research Program conducted by the Transportation Research Board
ciency Act of 1991 (ISTEA). On May 13, 1992, a memorandum with the approval of the Governing Board of the National Research Coun-
cil. Such approval reflects the Governing Board's judgment that the project
agreement outlining TCRP operating procedures was executed by
concerned is appropriate with respect to both the purposes and resources of
the three cooperating organizations: FTA, the National Academy of the National Research Council.
Sciences, acting through the Transportation Research Board The members of the technical advisory panel selected to monitor this
(TRB); and the Transit Development Corporation, Inc. (TDC), a project and to review this report were chosen for recognized scholarly com-
nonprofit educational and research organization established by petence and with due consideration for the balance of disciplines appropri-
APTA. TDC is responsible for forming the independent govern- ate to the project. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied are
ing board, designated as the TCRP Oversight and Project Selec- those of the research agency that performed the research, and while they
tion (TOPS) Committee. have been accepted as appropriate by the technical panel, they are not nec-
Research problem statements for TCRP are solicited periodi- essarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the Transit Develop-
cally but may be submitted to TRB by anyone at any time. It is ment Corporation, the National Research Council, or the Federal Transit
Administration of the U.S. Department of Transportation.
the responsibility of the TOPS Committee to formulate the re-
Each report is reviewed and accepted for publication by the technical
search program by identifying the highest priority projects. As
panel according to procedures established and monitored by the Trans-
part of the evaluation, the TOPS Committee defines funding portation Research Board Executive Committee and the Governing Board
levels and expected products. of the National Research Council.
Once selected, each project is assigned to an expert panel, ap-
pointed by TRB. The panels prepare project statements (requests
for proposals), select contractors, and provide technical guidance
The Transportation Research Board of The National Academies, the
and counsel throughout the life of the project. The process for Transit Development Corporation, the National Research Council, and the
developing research problem statements and selecting research Federal Transit Administration (sponsor of the Transit Cooperative
agencies has been used by TRB in managing cooperative re- Research Program) do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or
search programs since 1962. As in other TRB activities, TCRP manufacturers' names appear herein solely because they are considered
project panels serve voluntarily without compensation. essential to the clarity and completeness of the project reporting.
Because research cannot have the desired impact if products
fail to reach the intended audience, special emphasis is placed on
disseminating TCRP results to the intended end users of the re- Published reports of the
search: transit agencies, service providers, and suppliers. TRB
TRANSIT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM
provides a series of research reports, syntheses of transit practice,
and other supporting material developed by TCRP research. are available from:
APTA will arrange for workshops, training aids, field visits, and Transportation Research Board
other activities to ensure that results are implemented by urban Business Office
and rural transit industry practitioners. 500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001
The TCRP provides a forum where transit agencies can coop-
eratively address common operational problems. The TCRP results and can be ordered through the Internet at
http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore
support and complement other ongoing transit research and train-
ing programs. Printed in the United States of America
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished schol-
ars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology
and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in
1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and techni-
cal matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Acad-
emy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration
and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for
advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs
aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achieve-
ments of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the
services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining
to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of
Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative,
to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the
Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate
the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and
advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Acad-
emy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences
and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the
scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both the Academies and
the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. William A. Wulf are chair and vice chair,
respectively, of the National Research Council.
The Transportation Research Board is a division of the National Research Council, which serves the
National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering. The Board's mission is to promote
innovation and progress in transportation through research. In an objective and interdisciplinary setting,
the Board facilitates the sharing of information on transportation practice and policy by researchers and
practitioners; stimulates research and offers research management services that promote technical
excellence; provides expert advice on transportation policy and programs; and disseminates research
results broadly and encourages their implementation. The Board's varied activities annually engage more
than 5,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and
private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is
supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of
the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the
development of transportation. www.TRB.org
www.national-academies.org
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TCRP COMMITTEE FOR PROJECT J-7 COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM STAFF
ROBERT J. REILLY, Director, Cooperative Research Programs
CHAIR CHRISTOPHER W. JENKS, Manager, TCRP
FRANK T. MARTIN EILEEN P. DELANEY, Director of Publications
PBS&J, Tallahassee, FL
TCRP SYNTHESIS STAFF
MEMBERS STEPHEN R. GODWIN, Director for Studies
DEBRA W. ALEXANDER and Information Services
Capital Area Transportation Authority, Lansing, MI JON WILLIAMS, Manager, Synthesis Studies
DWIGHT FERRELL GAIL STABA, Senior Program Officer
Capital Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Austin, TX DONNA L. VLASAK, Senior Program Officer
MARK W. FURHMANN DON TIPPMAN, Editor
Metro Transit, Minneapolis, MN CHERYL KEITH, Senior Secretary
ROBERT H. IRWIN
Consultant, Calgary, AB, Canada TOPIC PANEL
DONNA KELSAY JAMES BARRY, New York City Transit Authority
San Joaquin Regional Transit District, Stockton, CA KURT BROTCKE, Orange County (CA) Transportation Authority
PAUL J. LARROUSSE KIMBERLY FISHER, Transportation Research Board
National Transit Institute, New Brunswick, NJ RUDOLPH KOLAJA, Transportation Consultant Engineers, LLC
WADE LAWSON RAM M. PENDYALA, University of South Florida
South Jersey Transportation Authority, Atlantic City, NJ RAYMOND M. QUIROZ, VIA Metropolitan Transit
DAVID A. LEE IKE UBAKA, Florida Department of Transportation
Connecticut Transit, Hartford, CT PAM WARD, Ottumwa Transit Authority
DAVID PHELPS ERIC PIHL, Federal Highway Administration (Liaison)
Consultant, Moneta, VA
HAYWARD M. SEYMORE, III
Q Straint, University Place, WA
PAM WARD
Ottumwa Transit Authority, Ottumwa, IA
JOEL R. WASHINGTON
Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority, Washington, DC
FTA LIAISON
KAREN FACEN
Federal Highway Administration
TRB LIAISON
PETER SHAW
Transportation Research Board
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FOREWORD Transit administrators, engineers, and researchers often face problems for which in-
By Staff formation already exists, either in documented form or as undocumented experience and
Transportation practice. This information may be fragmented, scattered, and unevaluated. As a conse-
Research Board quence, full knowledge of what has been learned about a problem may not be brought to
bear on its solution. Costly research findings may go unused, valuable experience may be
overlooked, and due consideration may not be given to recommended practices for solv-
ing or alleviating the problem.
There is information on nearly every subject of concern to the transit industry. Much
of it derives from research or from the work of practitioners faced with problems in their
day-to-day work. To provide a systematic means for assembling and evaluating such use-
ful information and to make it available to the entire transit community, the Transit Co-
operative Research Program Oversight and Project Selection (TOPS) Committee author-
ized the Transportation Research Board to undertake a continuing study. This study,
TCRP Project J-7, "Synthesis of Information Related to Transit Problems," searches out
and synthesizes useful knowledge from all available sources and prepares concise,
documented reports on specific topics. Reports from this endeavor constitute a TCRP re-
port series, Synthesis of Transit Practice.
This synthesis series reports on current knowledge and practice, in a compact format,
without the detailed directions usually found in handbooks or design manuals. Each re-
port in the series provides a compendium of the best knowledge available on those meas-
ures found to be the most successful in resolving specific problems.
PREFACE This synthesis documents the state of the practice in fixed-route transit ridership fore-
casting and service planning. It identifies forecasting methodologies, resource require-
ments, data inputs, and organizational issues. It also analyzes the impacts of service changes
and reviews transit agency assessments of the effectiveness and reliability of their methods
and of desired improvements. This report will be of interest to transit planners and man-
agers as they develop and refine forecasting methodologies for their own agencies.
A survey was undertaken to acquire information on methodologies used in a variety of
situations, satisfaction with these methods, and suggestions for improvements. Following
a review of the survey results, case studies were developed that included transit agencies of
various sizes and from different geographic regions, agencies with a variety of approaches
and methods related to ridership forecasting, and agencies that could offer insight to the
industry as a whole.
Daniel Boyle, Dan Boyle and Associates, San Diego, California, collected and synthe-
sized the information and wrote the report, under the guidance of a panel of experts in the
subject area. The members of the topic panel are acknowledged on the preceding page. This
synthesis is an immediately useful document that records the practices that were acceptable
within the limitations of the knowledge available at the time of its preparation. As progress
in research and practice continues, new knowledge will be added to that now at hand.
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CONTENTS
1 SUMMARY
3 CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION
Background, 3
Methodology, 3
Organization of Report, 3
5 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW
Introduction, 5
Older Studies, 5
More Recent Studies, 5
Rail-Oriented Studies, 6
Route-Level Studies, 6
Metropolitan Planning Organization Studies, 6
Current Studies, 7
Summary, 7
8 CHAPTER THREE RIDERSHIP FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES
Introduction, 8
Typology: Time, Geographic Scope, and Extent of Change, 8
Data Inputs, 8
Analytical Techniques, 9
Organizational Issues, 11
Ridership Forecasting Under a Variety of Scenarios, 11
Summary, 15
16 CHAPTER FOUR AGENCY ASSESSMENT OF FORECASTING METHODS
Introduction, 16
Data Availability and Reliability, 16
Measuring Reliability and Value of Forecasting Methodology, 16
Impacts of Technology on Forecasting Methodology, 16
Satisfaction with Ridership Forecasting, 17
Lessons Learned, 18
Summary, 19
20 CHAPTER FIVE CASE STUDIES
Introduction, 20
VIA Metropolitan Transit (San Antonio, Texas), 20
Regional Transportation District (Denver, Colorado), 21
Greater Richmond Transit Company (Richmond, Virginia), 23
MTANew York City Transit (New York, New York), 24
Orange County Transportation Authority (Orange, California), 26
TriMet (Portland, Oregon), 27
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30 CHAPTER SIX CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER STUDY
Introduction, 30
Data, 30
Methodology, 30
Organizational Issues, 31
Reliability and Accuracy, 31
Lessons Learned and Case Study Results, 31
Conclusions and Further Research Needs, 32
33 REFERENCES
35 APPENDIX A SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE
39 APPENDIX B SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTS
50 APPENDIX C PARTICIPATING TRANSIT AGENCIES
