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Supercomputers. Directions in Technology and Applications . Academy Industry Program National Academy of Sciences/National Academy of Engineering' Institute of Medicine and the Computer Science and Technology Board Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1989

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NOTICE: This book is based on a symposium cosponsored by the Academy Industry Program (a joint project of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine) and the Computer Science and Technology Board of the National Research Council. It has been reviewed according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the two Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of dis- tinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. Support for this project was provided by the Academy Industry Program and by the following organizations and agencies: Apple Computer, Inc., Control Data Corporation, Cray Research, Inc., the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Grant No. N00014-87-J-1110), the Department of Energy (Contract No. DE-FG05-87ER25029), Digital Equipment Corporation, Hewlett Packard, IBM Corporation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant No. CDA-860535), the National Science Foundation (Grant No. CDA-860535), and the Office of Naval Research (Grant No. N00014-87-J-1 110). Cover: Donna J. Cox, Scientist: Charles Evans, "Neutron Star Collision," National Center for Supercomputing Applications, 1986 Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 89~2945 International Standard Book Number 0-309-04088-4 Available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 Printed in the United States of America S014 First Printing, December 1989 Second Printing, June 1990

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ACADEMY INDUSTRY PRO GRIM ALLAN R. HOFFMAN, Director EDWARD ABRAHAMS, Senior Staff Officer LOIS E. PERROLLE, Staff Officer DEBORAH FAISON, Senior Program Assistant COMPUTER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BOARD JOSEPH F. TRAUB, Columbia University, Chairman JOHN SEELY BROWN, Xerox PARC Corporation MICHAEL L. DERTOUZOS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology SAMUEL H. FULLER, Digital Equipment Corporation JAMES FREEMAN GILBERT, University of California at San Diego WILLIAM ~ GODDARD III, California Institute of Technology JOHN E. HOPCROFT, Cornell University ROBERT E. KAHN, Corporation for National Research Initiatives SIDNEY KARIN, San Diego Supercomputer Center LEONARD KLEINROCK, University of California at Los Angeles DAVID J. KUCK, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign ROBERT LANGRIDGE, University of California at San Francisco ROBERT W. LUCKY, AT&T Bell Laboratories RAJ REDDY, Carnegie Mellon University MARY SHAW, Carnegie Mellon University WILLIAM J. SPENCER, Xerox Corporation IVAN E. SUTHERLAND, Sutherland, Sproull & Associates VICTOR VYSSOTSKY, Digital Equipment Corporation SHMUEL WINOGRAD, IBM Corporation IRVING WLADAWSKY-BERGER, IBM Corporation MARJORY S. BLUMENTHAL, Executive Director DAMIAN M. SACCOCIO, Staff Officer MARGARET ~ KNEMEYER, Staff Associate DONNA F. ALLEN, Administrative Secretary CATHERINE ~ SPARKS, Secretary l . . . 111

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Preface fiends in supercomputing technologies and the use of supercomput- ers in three innovative U.S. corporations are discussed by leading experts and by industry representatives in these proceedings of a symposium on supercomE,uters held at the National Academy of Sciences complex on September 8 and 9, 1988. The presentations that compose this report have been revised and updated in the internal between the symposium and pub- lication of this report. The symposium was the product of two groups, the Academy Industry Program and the National Research Council's Computer Science and Technology Board. The Academy Industry Program was created in 1983 to open a dialogue between the National Research Council and industry leaders. The program has a two-part purpose: (1) to make National Research Council studies, which number about 300 each year, available to industry decision makers and (2) to learn from industry how this country should best address its long- term needs in science and technology. Sixty-nine companies are currently members of this expanding program. Industry, government, and academe provide the three legs of the U.S. science and technology base, and the Academy Industry Program helps ensure that industry's role in that triad is carefully considered within the National Research Council. The Computer Science and Technology Board, created in 1986, has an ambitious agenda one focusing on research needs and public policies to enhance U.S. production and use of new computer technologies. The board's membership, which is half corporate and half academic, reflects its belief in a partnership of the corporate and the academic sectors. In v

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addition, the board is an intentional mix of people who might identify them- selves as computer scientists and engineers or who would list one of the sciences as their discipline and might also call themselves computational sci- entists. The board is also somewhat unusual in that a very large proportion of its support comes from the corporate sector. IBM Corporation, Digital Equipment Corporation, Hewlett Packard, Cray Research, Inc., Control Data Corporation, and Apple Computer, Inc. are all corporate sponsors. The board's most important activity by far is to study items of national interest having something to do with computing, but there is one overarch- ing theme, the competitiveness of the United States, that lies behind almost every one of the studies. The board believes that it is not the manifest destiny of the United States to remain the leading computer country in the world. In fact, if we act complacent, it is assured that we will not be and that we deserve not to be. The reason that leadership in computing is so important is that computing is the enabling technology. If we lose computing, we lose much more. In an information society where much of the industry is in the service sector, it is extremely easy for companies to go abroad. If we think that we saw an outflow in the manufacturing sector, we must realize how easy it would be for companies that do not have a capital base in this country to move their companies abroad. Among the board's recent projects are the following: The National Challenge in Computer Science and Technology (Na- tional Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1988), addresses nature and nurture issues for the computer field. Many of its major recommendations are in line with the remarks made by Senator Albert Gore, Jr., in his keynote address for this symposium. A report, Toward a National Research Network (National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1988), written in response to a request from the Office of Science and Technology Polic y for a review of a proposed national research network, which came out of what is sometimes called the Gore initiative; A study, requested by the State Department, of the technology that might affect U.S. policies on export control (Global fiends in Computer Technology and Their Impact on Export Control, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1988~; A review, requested by the National Aeronautics and Space Ad- ministration, of NASA's computer science research program; A colloquium, "Keeping the U.S. Computer Industry Competitive: Defining the Agenda," held in May 1989; and V1

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A survey of over 100 supercomputer users and developers that was prepared by the board to help guide its future assessments of high- performance computing. These projects are just examples from the board's rich portfolio. Supercomputers are prominent among the board's projects because science and technology advances make high-performance computing an increasingly essential element of the U.S. scientific and industrial bases. How and why this is so are the focus of this symposium report. Joseph F. Daub, Chairman Computer Science and Technology Board . . V11

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Contents PART A OPENING REMARKS 1 WELCOME Robert M. White SUPERCOMPUTERS: VITAL TOOL FOR THE NATION'S FUTURE The Honorable Albert Gore, Jr. INTRODUCTION Lany L. Smarr PART B THE CHANGING LANDSCAPE OF SUPERCOMPUTER TECHNOLOGY 4 EXISTING CONDITIONS Jack Worlton 5 TOWARD THE FUTURE Steve Chen 1X 3 s 13 21 51

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PART C EXISTING APPLICATIONS OF SUPERCOMPUTERS IN INDUSTRY 6 DECIDING TO ACQUIRE A POWERFUL NEW RESEARCH TOOL-SUPERCOMPUTING Beverly Eccles 7 USING SUPERCOMPUTING TO TRANSFORM THINKING ABOUT PRODUCT DESIGN Clifford R. Pe77y 8 ACHIEVING A PIONEERING OUTLOOK WITH SUPERCOMPUTING Lawrence G. Tesler PART D CONCLUDING REMARKS 9 SUMMARY Doyle D. Knight x 73 81 90 101