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Technology and Environment 1989. Pp. 137-155. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. Protecting the Ozone Layer: A Perspective from Industry JOSEPH P. GLAS Protection of the ozone layer is a model of the way science, technology, and public polio y can work together to achieve global agreement and action. The progress to date is a result of three basic factors: a shared goal of protecting the environment, fundamental agreement on the science, and advances in technology to meet societal needs. ORIGINS OF CONCERN In the more than 15 years since chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were first implicated in possible ozone depletion, those industries producing and using CFCs have asserted that policy should be based on He best available scientific information.) As a company, Du Pont, the world's largest producer, has sought to support and pursue development of the science, to base its position on He best available science, and once established, to act aggressively on its position. Clearly, the attention paid to this issue over the past decade and a half is a product of science. Lovelock's invention in 1970 of the electron capture detector for gas chromatography first provided the capability of measuring CFCs in the atmosphere in parts per trillion. By revealing that This chapter is based on a talk given at the National Academy of Engineering Annual Meeting, September 29, 1988. It includes supporting information provided with the assistance of the Na- tional Academy of Engineering Program Office. 137

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138 JOSEPH ~ GETS CFCs were accumulating in the atmosphere, Lovelock's measurements in the early 1970s indirectly provided the first evidence for possible concern about these compounds Forelock, 1971~. Du Pont's reaction to the information was to arrange a seminar on "The Ecology of Fluorocarbons" for the world's CFC producers. The year was 1972. The invitation from Raymond Me Carthy, then research director of Freon Products, previewed future industry responses: Fluorocarbons are intentionally or accidentally vented to the atmosphere world wide at a rate approaching one billion pounds per year. These compounds may be either accumulating in the atmosphere or returning to the surface, land or sea, in the pure form or as decomposition products. Under any of these alternatives, it is prudent that we investigate any effects which the compounds may produce on plants or animals now or in the future. As a result of that industry symposium, a research program was es- tablished to investigate the ultimate fate and impact of CFCs in the atmo- sphere. Nineteen companies formed the Chemical Manufacturers Associa- tion's (CMA) Fluorocarbon Program Panel, a group that has funded well over $20 million in research to date at academic and government facilities worldwide, including support of recent Antarctic expeditions. In 1974, about two years after the industry symposium and initiation of the enhanced research program, Molina and Rowland (1974) published an article proposing that the ultimate fate of CFCs was ultraviolet pho- todecomposition in the stratosphere with the release of chlorine atoms. Through a series of rapid chemical reactions, these chlorine atoms might cause a reduction in the total amount of stratospheric ozone Figure 1~. The concerns of these and other scientists led the industry group to redirect its research activities toward confirming or refuting the initial conclusion regarding stratospheric photolysis of CFCs and the possible impacts of that decomposition, including potential ozone depletion.2 Stratospheric science was in its infancy at the time. There was no reliable means of checking the validity of the ozone depletion theory. Led by government funding agencies, but with significant input from industry, scientists from government, academia, and industry undertook the enor- mous task of developing the scientific base, including a greatly expanded worldwide set of measurements, with the goal of predicting future ozone amounts. One of the results was the development of more realistic and comprehensive models which, by the early 1980s, were used by policymakers to study potential regulatory scenarios. Despite shortcomings in the amount and quality of data, the science of the late 1970s told us three things. First, the time scales involved are long for both the onset and the decay of any effects from CFCs (Figure 2~. Although available evidence indicated that there appeared to be sufficient time to perform research to reduce uncertainties, control measures would

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PROTECTING THE OZONE LAYER Production O2 2(0 + Solar UV ( As 220 nm) +O2 ~ M 20 O3 + M) Net Destruction 139 3O2 2O3 X + O3 - XO + O2 O3 ~ Solar UV (A< 310nm) ~ O2 + O XO + O X + O2 Net 2O3 X = NO, OH, Cl, O2 3O2 FIGURE 1 Production and destruction of ozone. Ozone is produced and destroyed naturally at the rate of about 300 million tons per day. Production occurs primarily as the result of dissociation of molecular oxygen by absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation. Oxygen molecules can also combine with oxygen atoms to form ozone, if a suitable liquid or solid surface ~ is present. Ozone is destroyed by several natural catalytic cycled About 70 percent of the natural destruction is due to the nitrogen cycle. Chlorine is believed to be the principal agent upsetting the natural balance of ozone production and destruction. There is concern that increasing concentrations of CFCs could add enough chlorine to the atmosphere to increase the net destruction rate and decrease the net amount of ozone. SOURCE: Du Pont Company. probably be required well in advance of any identifiable damage to the biosphere. Second, the science involved is incredibly complex, with relevant new chemical reactions being discovered regularly, and in key respects is un- proven. Scientists, government, and industry were all mindful of attempts to predict stratospheric ozone destruction by nitrogen oxide emissions from supersonic transport planes (SSI) in the early 1970s, and how results had shifted dramatically (Figure 3~. Third, the processes and effects are clearly global. Because any CECs entering We atmosphere would be mixed throughout the atmosphere rela- tively quickly, no individual geographic region had exclusive control over in own ozone layer. Moreover, CFCs were consumed in significant amounts in many nations and regions (Figure 4~. The quick conclusion was that if there were a problem, the entire world would have to act in near unison Du Pont's corporate environmental policy, formulated in the late 1930s,

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140 - ?( JOSEPH ~ GETS _ it;? - 1 1 1 1 60 80 1 00 400 , 1 1 1 1 0 20 40 o ._ a) cry o .o a) cn E I / 420 440 460 480 500 ~ :~ I I I I D? l I I I I 0 20 40 60 80 ,, 100' 400 420 Time (years) 440 460 480 500 FIGURE 2 Implications of long atmospheric lifetime of CFCs. Both the emission rate and the concentration are plotted as arbitrarily chosen, linear scales. The concentration responds slower to change in the emission rate. SOURCE: Du Pont Company. commits Du Pont to "determine that each product can be made, used, handled and disposed of safely and consistent with appropriate safety, health and environmental quality criteria." In fact, in 1975, Chairman of the Board Irving Shapiro stated publicly that if there were credible scientific evidence of harm to human health or the environment, Du Pont would cease manufacture of fully halogenated CFCs. About once a year, dating back to the mid-l97Os, Du Pont formally reviewed its position. The question was always the same: On the basis of what we know from the science, what if any~ontrols are appropriate? Once the company's position on controls had been determined, consideration was given to Triplications for business strategies. ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY Inevitably, technology became a key aspect of the ozone issue. CFCs had been invented around 1930 as a safe alternative to ammonia and sulfur dionde for use in home refrigerators (see Friedlander, this volume). The intent was to eliminate the toxicity, flammability, and corrosion concerns

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PROIECTING THE OZONE LAYER 141 of other chemicals by developing a stable chemical with the right thermo- dynamic properties. That effort was so successful that the new compounds were also quite easy to make and rather inexpensive. New applications for a safe class of chemicals with the properties of CFCs were plentiful and the market blossomed. Currently, virtually all refrigeration, commercial air conditioning, defense and communications electronics, medical devices, and high-efficiengy insulation use CFCs in some way. 4 2 o a) a) - _ _ _ -2 _ -4 a) C' a) I: ~ -12 C) a) -1 4 o O -16 -6 _ -8 -18 Ozone Increase ~ / - Ozone Dec~ease {| ,-N ,: Nitrogen \ Oxides I ~ _ I / Chlorofluorocarbons \ | -20 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 Year of Projection UNSURE 3 Long-term stratospheric ozone change projections from constant emission rates. Long-term projections of stratospheric ozone change, based on constant emission rates, provide an example of how complex, poorly understood processes can significantly affect the predictions of a mathematical model of man-made environmental changes. This graph shows stratospheric ozone change estimates from a series of models developed to predict the effects in the next century of steady-state emissions of both CFCs and nitrogen oxides from a hypothetical fleet of SSIt. Ike calculations were made over a number of years at Lawrence Liverwort National Laboratory. SOURCE: Schneider and Thompson (1985).

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142 JOSEPH ~ GETS 1 . Europe and Africa 34% North America 35% - I'm Am. Japan 12% ".:. FIGURE 4 Approximate consumption of CF~ By country or region, 1988. Idtal world consumption was 2,510 million pounds. SOURCE: Du Pant Company estimates. Today, some 50 years after the development of CFCs, we have rede- fined "safe" to mean something not quite so stable-that is, not as stable in the atmosphere-which still retains the desirable properties afforded by stability during use. PRECAU IIONARY ACTIONS In the mid-197Os, despite limited scientific understanding and evidence, several environmental groups insisted that precautionary action be taken to control CECs. They focused attention on the so-called nonessential uses of CFCs, primarily aerosol propellants. Despite strong protests from industry, a few countnes, led by the United States, banned those uses in 1978. In my view, because this unilateral action was not based on unequivocal scientific guidance, the ultimate result was broader global inaction for almost 10 more years. Anticipating a potential need for substitutes if regulations were pro- mulgated, Du Pont initiated a large research effort in the mid-1970s to identify and, if possible, develop alternative chemicals to replace the fully halogenated CFCs. In 1980, after numerous candidates had been rejected as too tone, significantly more costly to manufacture, or not usable in their intended applications, Du Pont published its conclusions about the most promising candidates (Du Pont Company, 1980~.

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PROTECTING THE OZONE LAYER 143 As long as the existing products were freely available, the new candi- dates, being less cost-effective, could never hope to compete unless some external factor drove market demand. Regulations that could create de- mand for alternatives were not forthcoming. Additionally, the U.S. ban on aerosols a segment that accounted for about 50 percent of the U.S. CFC market had forestalled CFC growth sufficiently so that additional controls seemed unwarranted and unlikely (Figure 5~. Although advances in science had led to numerous refinements model projections of future ozone levels, significant uncertainties remained in the early 1980s. At the same time, published analyses of atmospheric measurements indicated no persistent trend in total column ozone Able 1~. This supported the belief that there would not be significant changes in ozone in the near term. However, continuing uncertainties led to renewed interest in regulation of CFCs. Anticipating such action, in the mid-1980s CFC producers and users formed the Alliance for Responsible CFC Policy. The expressed purpose of the Alliance is to advocate that policies be based on the best science and that only a global approach to controls would be effective in protecting the ozone layer. In October 1980, reacting to model calculations that ozone depletion might reach 15-20 percent at the end of the next century, the Environmen- tal Protection Agency (EPA) published an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulema~ng (ANPR). The ANPR suggested the need for additional con- trols and an eventual phaseout of CFC production and use. Subsequent model results, combined with recognition of trends in atmospheric con- centrations of other trace gases, indicated that net changes in ozone, if any, were likely to be insignificant, provided there was no large growth in CFC production (National Research Council, 1982~. This again removed support for regulation. The ANPR was left open, with no decision by the EPA to either pursue or abandon it. After it became apparent that there would be no controls to drive demand for substitute products, Du Pont curtailed its R&D efforts on alternatives. INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS International attention had remained focused ore the ozone issue through the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) which, in 1977, organized the Coordinating Committee on the Ozone Layer, that met at least biennially and published a series of scientific assessments. Responding to the concerns expressed in those reports, in 1981 UNEP formed an ad hoc group to consider development of a global convention for protection of the ozone layer. After unsuccessful attempts to negotiate a convention that would include provisions aimed at control of CECs, the group abandoned

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144 - / Aerosols 69% Blowing Agents 5%~ | Cleaning Agents 6% ~~ 1974 (2,025 million pounds) JOSEPH ~ GLAS PRODUCTION 3000 2500 In 2000 o E - c, o a, =3s 1 000 1 500 500 Total CFCs ~ A / / ~ ~ '//~ / / / O / / ~ / r Nonaerosols it' l I ~\ - \_ \ Aerosols 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 Year CONSUMPTION ~ :.;. C'.,.o',':.,. ,C ,-;C i: o' . Refrigerants 30% '; I Other 2% Aerosols ~ Bowing Agent 28%/1 ~ ~J 1988 (2.510 million pounds) FIGURE 5 Worldwide production and consumption of CFCs Above, estimated worldwide total production of CFCs for both aerosol and nonaerosol use from 1960 to 1988, below, differences in consumption by application in 1774 and 1988. Although the United States banned the use of CFCh as aerosol propellants for most applications in 19~78, many countries did not SOURCE: Du Pant Company. that effort and proceeded with a framework convention calling for global cooperation on research, data collection, and technology exchange. The UNEP Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone ~ flyer was adopted in March 1985. The convention was designed so that protocols could be added requiring specific control measures. The group also outlined

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PROTECTING THE OZONE LAYER TABLE 1 Trends in Total Ozone Change, as Reported in the Early 1980s Change Period (percent) Reference 197~1978 + 0.28 + 0.67 Reinsel et al. (1981) 197~1979 +15 + 05 St. John et al. (1982) 1970-1979 +0.1 ~ 055 Bloomfieldet al. (1983) 1979-1983 ~.003 + 1.12 per decade Reinselet al. (1984) (~.14 + 1.08) per decade with sunspot series in model SOURCE: World Meteorological Organization-National Aeronautics and Space Administration (1986~. 145 plans for a series of workshops to evaluate further the need for such controls and explore possible means of control that could find worldwide acceptance. Concurrent with these regulator discussions, a worldwide group of experts was engaged in a comprehensive review of the science. Completed in late 1985, the study concluded that there was no evidence of global ozone depletion and forecast no depletion based on limited growth in CFC usage (WMO-NASA, 19863. However, model calculations that assumed sustained growth in CFC emissions did predict depletion in ozone (see Figure 6~. Just as the study was being completed, British scientists uncovered the first evidence of significant but temporary changes in ozone over Antarctica (Farman et aL, 1985~. Despite the lack of consensus about causes of the so-called Antarctic hole, the observation of real change again focused world attention on the issue of CFCs and their effects on stratospheric ozone. RENEWED CONTROL EFFORTS AND INDUSTRY LEADERSHIP While progress was being achieved at the international level, in the United States the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) filed suit against the EPIC The NRDC claimed that by not following up the 1980 ANPR with a decision regarding future regulations, the EPA had failed to meet its obligations under the Clean Air Act. The suit was settled late in 1985 with the publication of EPA's Stratospheric Ozone Protection Plan, which called for a series of U.S. workshops to be held in conjunction with those planned by UNEP. They were to be followed by an EPA decision by May 1, 1987, and publication of a final rule, if needed, by November 1, 1987. Through this period, the pattern of CFC use by industry had begun to change. By the mid-1980s, the growth of refrigeration, cleaning agents, and foam insulation markets more than offset the decline of CFCs in aerosol

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146 5 4 3 2 1 O a) -1 -2 -3 4 JOSEPH ~ ALAS NO ~,FCs ''I ~ I- ..-:: ----,-, ~ Constant CFC Production 5 ~ 1940 1960 1980 2000 39L/yr CFC Growth ~ 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year FIGURE 6 Calculated ozone change over time. The range of changes in total ozone calculated by the various modeling groups from the United States and Europe is shown for three assumptions for past and future consumption of CFCs. The top range shows calculated changes if CFCs were never emitted to the atmosphere. The middle shows calculated changes if historical CEC consumption rates are assumed through 1985 and constant consumption at the 1985 rate thereafter. The bottom range shows calculated changes if historical CFC consumption rates through 1985, with compounded growth of the consumption rate at 3 percent per year thereafter. Ozone amounts are calculated to increase in the top and middle ranges because of the effects of increasing amounts of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere. SOURCE: Data were assembled from a vanes of sources including WMO-NASA (1986~. markets in the United States and Canada (see Figure 5~. Furthermore, forecasts projected continued growth in demand, due in large part to the expectation that developing countries would want the services provided by CFCs. These growth forecasts, coupled with computer model predictions of ozone depletion if there were sustained growth in CFC emissions, once again increased concerns (see Figure 6~. With the body of information

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PROTECTING THE OZONE LAYER 147 acquired over the previous decade, it became clear that, regardless of quantitative results, significantly increased emissions were likely to result in decreases in ozone. Based on this information, the worldwide CFC industry, led in September 1986 by Du Pont and the Alliance for Responsible CFC Policy, first advocated international efforts to limit long-term growth of CFC emissions. The new policy argued that controls should be global and should focus on net worldwide emissions to the stratosphere rather than on individual uses or countries. The failure of the 1978 U.S. aerosol ban to halt worldwide growth was cited as an example of the inability of such isolated actions to have lasting effects. It is difficult to say whether any specific factor led to Du Pont's 1986 policy change. Probably most influential was growing confidence in the models' ability to predict ozone depletion for growth scenarios, coupled with recognition that demand for CFCs was growing at a significant rate and would likely continue to grow if left alone. In 1986 Du Pont also reactivated research on chemical substitutes; the reasoning was that alternatives would eventually be needed, regardless of cost. A HISTORIC INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENT The announcements by U.S. industry in 1986 contributed significantly to productive international negotiations that began in December of that year. Du Pont was an active participant throughout, as was the Alliance for Responsible CFC Policy. With some initial reluctance, other leading CFC producers also offered their support for an international agreement. The basis for consensus was a shared goal of protecting the environment, commitment to active participation in efforts to advance scientific under- standing, and agreement that any regulations should be based on sound information. The growing industry support led negotiators to a productive discussion of the implications of different regulatory proposals. Although industry participated in the discussion of various control strategies, it pointed out that technical analyses had demonstrated only the need for limitations to growth in CEC emissions. Some environmental groups, on the other hand, insisted that if there were indeed any level of emissions that was unsafe, and that level could not be determined accurately, then the only appropriate action was elimination of all CFC emissions. The results of these developments were twofold. First, the search for a structure for the proposed regulations became a complex interplay of national economic interests seeking a straightforward yet equitable solution. Second, the stringency and timing of the regulations became a political struggle between supporters of aggressive controls, on one side, and those

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148 JOSEPH ~ GETS who sought a more cautious approach, on the other. A sound scientific base indicating the need for some level of controls maintained the discussions. From the standpoint of industry, if the negotiators could develop regulations that CFC producers and users worldwide could meet without severe economic costs and safety risks, then the process would clearly advance. Much of industry had already accepted that there should be some kind of limit. This acceptance contributed to the development of the international process and helped government negotiators to focus on the issues necessary to gain a consensus. Ensuing negotiations in the late spring and early summer of 1987 led to signing of the Montreal Protocol in mid-September (UNEP, 1987~. It dealt with a broad range of considerations. This protocol had to determine a "safe" level of emissions. It had to be acceptable to developing countries, who were seeking the economic and societal benefits that CFCs had made possible for developed countries. Another important consideration was to maintain free-flowing international trade in what had become a truly global market. Most important, the protocol had to be a living document. There was a need for sufficient fle~bili~ to adjust the terms of the protocol in response to scientific, technological, and socioeconomic developments. Me box on page 149 summarizes the provisions of the Montreal Protocol.) As the negotiations were nearing completion, it became apparent to Du Pont and others that the need for alternative compounds would likely arise sooner than expected. The search began anew for ways to reduce the time needed for development. One clear need was a way to speed up initiation of the six to seven years of toxicity testing normally required for such high-volume chemicals. Du Pont contacted other producers who had publicly expressed interest in developing alternatives. A core group then identified the most promising products and concluded that a cooperative effort would generate the needed toxicity information most efficiently. An invitation was then extended to all other CFC-producing companies. By January 1988, the 14-member Panel for Alternative Fluorocarbon Toxicity Testing was formed and an aggressive five-year program was under way. CREDIBLE SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE The ink on the Montreal agreement (UNEP, 1987) was barely dry and the ratification process had just begun when, on March 15, 1988, NASAs Ozone [lends Panel (Watson et al., 1988) announced new findings that raised serious questions about whether the restrictions on CFC production and use contained in the protocol were adequate to protect stratospheric ozone. Figure 7 shows the 1987 Antarctic ozone "hole" that was the central motivating finding in the new assessment.

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PROTECTING THE OZONE LAYER 149 The Montreal Protocol is designed to help reach international agreement on control of the production and consumption of certain chlorofluorocarbon and halon compounds. For developed countries, it calls for a freeze in CFC-11, 12, 113, 114, and 115 at 1986 consumption levels in mid-1989, with a 20 percent reduction from 1986 levels in mid-1993, and a 50 percent reduction by July 1, 1998. Halon-1211, 1301, and 2402 would be frozen at 1986 consumption levels in 1992, or three years after the protocol became effective. The Montreal Protocol required ratification by nations representing at least two-thirds of total world consumption of CFCs and haloes. The protocol entered into force on January 1, 1989. Montreal Protocol Participants Argentina Australia Austria *Belgium Burkina Faso *Byelo~ussian SSR *Canada Chile Congo *Denmark EEC *Egypt *Federal Republic of Germany *Finland *France Ghana *Grecoe Indonesia *Ireland Israel *Italy *Japan *Kenya *Luxembourg Maldives *Malta *Mexico Morocco *Netherlands *New Zealand *Nigeria *Norway Panama Philippines *Portugal Senegal *Singapore *Spain *Sweden *Switzerland Thailand Togo *Uganda *Ukrainian SSR *United Kingdom *United States *USSR Venezuela 9, 1989. *Ratified: 46 signatories, 31 ratifiers, January

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150 JOSEPH ~ GETS within three days of the Ozone Mends Panel report, internal dis- cussions on the findings reached Du Pont's Executive Committee; after discussing the new findings win company scientists, the committee imme- diately decided to adopt a new position. Less than a week later, on March 24, Du Pont publicly announced its goal of an orderly transition to the phaseout of production of fully halogenated CFCs and the introduction of alternative chemicals and technologies as an essential part of the phaseout. The company also reiterated support for the Montreal agreement as the only effective means of addressing the issue on a global basis and called for a strengthening of the protocol to consider further global limitations on the emissions of CFCs. Since the announcement, CFC producers such as Penowalt Corpora- tion, Allied-Signal, and Imperial Chemical Industries, as well as the Alliance for Responsible CFC Policy, the Food Service and Packaging Institute, the American Refrigeration Institute, and several CFC users have either taken steps to reduce the use of CFCs or urged more stringent controls through the international process. Following the phaseout decision, Du Pont again reviewed the aggres- siveness of its alternative R&D efforts to ensure that every possible measure was being taken to accelerate the program. Greater financial risks were to be taken, but safety considerations were not to be compromised. As a result of this review, numerous additional initiatives have been undertaken especially in the area of applications development. Du Pont's goal is to phase out its production of CFCs as soon as possible. The target is to complete the phaseout not later than the end of the century. Six operations are dedicated to developing alternatives, including four pilot plants, a small-lot production facility, and a commercial- scale plant. In September 1988 Du Pont announced plans to invest more than $25 million in the world's first commercial-scale plant to produce HFC- 134a, the leading candidate to replace CFC-12 in the largest U.S. market segment refrigeration and air conditioning. This plant will be located in Corpus Christy Texas, and will have the capability to expand to a much larger-scale facility in the future. In 1988 Du Pont spent more than $30 million for process development, market research, applications testing, and small-lot production of CFC alternatives; it expects to spend more than $45 million for R&D in 1989. Our plan at Du Pont is to commercialize a series of new products during a three- to five-year period beginning in 1990. This schedule assumes favorable toxicology, process development and plant design, a favorable business climate, and reasonable financial risks. If problems arise in any aspect of the commercialization process, the schedule for new products will have to be reevaluated.

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PROTECTING ITIE OZONE LAYER 35 30 25 20 _ a) a) E Y 15 _'--_ ~5 - ct 10 5 '. _ - 29 Aug 87 6 Oct 87 1 1 0 50 100 150 200 Ozone Partial Pressure (nanobars) 35 30 25 a, - a) ~ 20 ._ - 15 10 5 o _ --t _ ~ _ _ - 29 Aug 87 5 Nov 87 0 50 100 150 200 Ozone Partial Pressure (nanobars) 151 FIGURE 7 Vertical profiles of ozone using electrochemical ozonesondes from McMurdo Station in Antarctica, August-November 1987. The figures show the drop from Antarctic winter (August) to unusually low levels in Antarctic spring (October-November). By October the total ozone over Antarctica had been reduced by more than 50 percent of its 1979 value. Local depletion was as great as 95 percent at altitudes of 15-20 kilometem SOURCE: Watson (1989, p. 19).

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152 JOSEPH ~ GETS Du Pont's programs will be inadequate in the long term without global application and cooperation. Du Pont and all other firms must continue to believe in and support the international process established with the Montreal Protocol, hoping that all nations can, in fact, work together to stengthen the protocol to achieve a timely global phaseout. Figure 8 shows the implications for CFC concentrations for a range of emission scenarios. In the United States alone, there is now more than $135 billion worth of installed equipment dependent on current CFC products. Virtually all of this equipment, some of it with a remaining useful lifetime of 20 to 40 years, could require replacement or modifications. For some industries, the impact of change will be even more dramatic. Entire industries could fold and, perhaps, be replaced by others. Whatever action is taken, and whenever it occurs, technology will continue to play a critical role. The rate of technological progress and the degree of risk are inextricably related. In the extreme, a ban on CFCs before alternative chemicals or technologies can be put into place would mean lapses in the distribution of blood, other medical supplies, and up to 75 percent of the U.S. food supply. It could also force shutdowns of many modern office buildings that require air conditioning, as well as many U.S. manufacturing operations. From a CFC standpoint, what action would appear to be most benefi- cial to the ozone layer? In the absence of scientific certainly, but based on the best available science, the prudent answer is a virtual phaseout of the suspect CFCs. Then the question is, What are the costs and risks associated with such a decision? If society is forced to choose a tone or flammable, but legally allowed, chemical for refrigeration as the only alternative available to prevent critical shortages, it will be committed to a known risk in the home and workplace rather than a less certain global risk. A final critical question deals with global concerns. What mechanism can be used to ensure that unified action is taken on a global scale? History has shown that less environmentally conscious governments are ready to let the United States take the more aggressive actions to enhance environ- mental protection. In today's world economy, competitive advantages are sought wherever they can be found. A simplistic policy approach based on the premise that "what is obvious to me must be best for everyone" is doomed to failure. CONCLUSION A lot has been learned about the science of stratospheric ozone in the nearly 20 years since Lovelock's early work in his basement laboratory. More important, through efforts to address the ozone depletion issue, we appear finally to have found a way to behave as a global community and

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PROTECTING THE OZONE LAYER 4.0 - Q - a, 3.0 ._ o o o - ce a) c o 2.0 1.0 0.5 2.5 , _ ,//~. /~ 0.0 153 / . / / 1 ! 1980 2000 2020 2040 Year 2060 2080 2100 CFC Consumption 1989 1993 1998 - Freeze 20~)3 2100 -20% -50% A - B C -95% , ~ E F Freeze -20% -50% -20% -50% -95% -95% FIGURE 8 Effect of CFC reduction, showing total amount of calculated chlorine in the atmosphere from CFCs for several assumptions of future global use rates. There is very little difference between the two cases (A and B) in which CFC emissions are not decreased by more than the 50 percent reduction required by the Montreal Protocol. The effect of moving forward each reduction step by one control period is minimal (B). A reduction by 8~5 percent (C3 maintains the atmospheric levels of chlorine from CFC emissions at an almost constant level. Adding a 95 percent use-reduction step ~) to the protocol results in reductions in the contribution of chlorine from CFCs. Over the next century, it would decrease by 75 percent the chlorine that would be added to the atmosphere if the protocol is not modified. Accelerating the reductions (E) has a relatively small effect, in pan because other compounds contribute about 1.6 parts per billion (ppb) of chlorine to the atmosphere. A 95 percent reduction in 1989 ~ leads to chlorine decreases that begin almost immediately. However, such a reduction is not practical in view of the amount of CFCs required to meet basic societal needs, including refrigeration of food and medical supplies.

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154 JOSEPH ~ GETS make a commitment to reduce the overall risks to society in the future. We have learned that it is possible to act quickly and forcefully by building on a common goal of protecting the environment and on fundamental agreement in science. The development of new technologies has provided what appear to be viable options for meeting societr's needs. Day's visible results are only the beginning of what will, I believe, become a major success story in environmental protection. industrial firms will continue to take a strong leadership role in helping to bring about a global solution to this global environmental issue- an issue that should be a prototype for dealing with other global issues such as the greenhouse effect NOTES 1. For reviews of scientific aspects of the ozone question, see Garfield (1988), National Research Council (1989), and Rowland (1989~. Concern for the protective ozone layer around the world stems from the fact that this layer, primarily 1~20 kilometem above the earth, screens out most of the biologically damaging ultraviolet radiation emitted by the sun Laugh, 19803. REFERENCES Bloomfield, P., G. Oehlert, M. In Thompson, and S. Zeger. 1983. A frequency domain analysis of trends in Dobson total ozone records. Journal of Geophysical Research 88:851~85Z2. Du Pont Company. 1980. Fluorocarbon/Ozone Update. Wilmington, Del.: E. I. du Pant de Nemours and Company. Barman, J. C, G. B. Gardiner, and J. D. Shanklin. 1985. Large losses of total ozone in Antarctica reveal seasonal Cl02/NO' interaction. Nature 315:207-210. Garfield, E. 1988. Ozone layer depletion: Its consequences, the causal debate, and international cooperation. Current Contents (6~:~13. Lovelock, J. E. 1971. Atmospheric fluorine compounds as indicators of air movements. Nature 230(April 9~:379. Maugh, T. H. 1980. Ozone depletion would have dire ejects. Science 207:390395. Molina, M., and F. S. Rowland. 1974. Stratospheric sink for chlorofluoromethanes: Chlorine atom catalyzed destruction of ozone. Nature 249:81(~12. National Research Council. 1982. Causes and Effects of Stratospheric Ozone Reduction: An Overview. Environmental Studies Board, Commission on Natural Resources. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. National Research Council. 1989. Ozone Depletion, Greenhouse Gases, and Climate Change. Washington, D.C: National Academy Press. Reinsel, G., G. C. Tiao, M. N. Wang, R. Lewis, and D. Nychka. 1981. Statistical analysis of stratospheric ozone data for the detection of trend. Atmospheric Environment 15:15601577. Reinsel, G., G. C. Tiao, J. L" DeLuisi, C. L Mateer, ~ J. Miller, and J. E. Frederick. 1984. Analysis of upper stratospheric Umkehr ozone profile data for trends and the effects of stratospheric aerosols. Journal of Geophysical Research 89:4833~840. Rowland, S. F. 1989. Chlorofluorocarbons and the depletion of stratospheric ozone. American Scientist 77(January-February):3045.

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PROTECTING THE OZONE LAYER 155 Schneider, S. H., and S. L" Thompson. 1985. Future changes in the atmosphere. Pp. 397~30 in The Global Possible, R. Repetto, ed. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press St. John, D., W. H. Bailey, W. H. Fellner, J. M. Minor, and R. D. Sull. 1982. Time series analysis of stratospheric ozone. Commun. Stat., Part A 11: 129~1333. United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). September 16, 1987. Montreal Protocol on Substances lbat Deplete the Ozone Layer. Montreal: UNEP. Watson, R. T., M. J. Prather, and M. J. Kurylo. 1988. Present state of knowledge of the upper atmosphere 1988: An assessment report. NASA Reference Publication No. 1208. Washington, D.C.: National Aeronautics and Space Administration. World Meterological Organization-National Aeronautics and Space Administration (WMO- NASA). 1986. Atmospheric ozone 1985: Assessment of our understanding of the processes controlling its present distribution and Change. Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project, Report No. 16, 3 vols. Geneva: WMO.

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