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Technology and Environment (1989)

Chapter: THE PROMISE OF TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS

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Suggested Citation:"THE PROMISE OF TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS." National Academy of Engineering. 1989. Technology and Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1407.
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Technology and Environment 1989. Pp. 9~113. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. Meeting the Near-Term Challenge for Power Plants RICHARD E. BALZHISER This volume frames a set of emerging multidimensional challenges to the science and technology of our energy economy and ecology. This chapter focuses on near-term challenges facing the utilibr industry and its engineers in accommodating to the realities of environmental, resource, and institutional constraints. It explores technological opportunities to maximize the value of past investments in meeting societal demands as well as the likelihood of finding new systems and synergies that can contribute to a healthy industry in the changing business climate in the years ahead. The challenges the industry faces need to be understood from several different perspectives. For convenience, these challenges can be considered as a matrix in which the elements interact. The matrix can be understood first by examining each element, or cell, and then considering their inter- actions. Near term Regional outlook Reasonably assured (less than 25 years) (city, state, part technology of country) Long term Global outlook Potential future (more than 25 years) (hemisphere, options continent, world) 95

96 RICHARD E. BALZHISER The first pair of cells points out the different time frames of the challenges that must be addressed. In many aspects of energy technology, the time required for extensive penetration of a market, often characterized by a logistic curve (Ausubel and Lee, this volume), is 20 years or more, because large investments in facilities and infrastructure are involved. The utility industry is learning (with urgent need) to be able to effect some changes more quickly, even when this large fleet of facilities is involved. The long term opens up many more possibilities and options in technology, but also brings many tighter constraints with respect to air, water, land use, aesthetics, and resources. The industry must, therefore, anticipate and move to cope with the long-term considerations even in what is developed and applied in the near term. The next pair of elements in the matrix contrasts regional and global outlook Most of what is feasible and economical in energy is determined by what is practical and convenient in a given region, whether it be a city, a state, or a section of a country. The global view has received much theoretical attention for nearly a century, but the influence of transregional and transnational constraints on local decisions and choices has begun to take effect at a practical level only in the past decade. The third pair of matrix elements distinguishes between technology that has a reasonably firm base in knowledge and experience, and technology that may lead to potentially important applications but has either known or unexpected gaps in the knowledge and experience base. As the research arm of the U.S. electric utility industry, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) carries out development work largely in the first two cells on the top row of the matrix, that is, near term and regional. In the third column EPRI aims at evolutionary refinements in known technologies, as well as developing the knowledge base for the most promising future options. However, there is ample scope for development even of "mature" technologies that are widely used and have long been in textbooks. These developments are often in response to the challenges discussed in this volume, namely, tighter environmental constraints, or economic incentives such as an opportunity for increased efflciengy or productivity in the production and use of energy and electricity. These challenges often reveal gaps in the technology base, and sometimes gaps in underlying science as well. Mere are two other driving forces for development, almost at opposite ends of the spectrum of technological maturity. At one end, as much as one-third of EPRI's development is still driven by inadequacies in the fundamental knowledge base of seemingly mature technologies. This is especially evident as economic incentives for extension of useful life of major equipment intensify. Extending the knowledge base to the prediction, detection, and control or remedy for various aging and wear-out phenomena

NE4R-1~RA! CHAI~NGE FOR POWER PUS 97 is now a major goal of research and development. (Industries concerned with aircraft, oil supply, and much of our basic infrastructure of dams, bridges, telecommunications, and buildings also see the needs, and large economic incentives, for safely extending useful lifetimes.) At the other end of the technology maturity spectrum, EPRI supports exploratory research, not necessarily tied to any existing industnal-scale technology. This seeks to extend the knowledge base of potential future technology or methods for the production, storage, transport, or use of energy. These projects range from seeking new types of exotic composite materials, through modeling and mathematics for configuration and control of large complex computer programs, to theoretical aspects of nonneutronic fusion processes. All of these activities include implicit judgments about the nature of the challenges for the utility industry, and for the national economy and the environmental, legislative, and administrative context in which it functions. A key point, also made by other authors in this volume, is the need to be skeptical of forecasts. For the energy industry, skepticism means that even reasonably stable trends or widely believed forecasts need to be used in conjunction with contingency plans and options. For example, conventional wisdom is that electricity demand growth will be between 1.5 and 2.5 percent per year for the next decade at least. But 1987 and 1988 saw growth rates roughly twice this high. As another example, natural gas is generally agreed to be the most convenient fuel of choice for capacity additions over the next decade. It is clean, available, and minimizes financial risk in investment. It is convenient to install in relatively small increments for either utility or nonutility generation and for cogeneration. It continues to show attractive technical advances in lifetime and efficiency of turbines and in combined gas-steam cycle systems. Nevertheless, it would be less than prudent to neglect the possibility of price increases or supply limitations as the use of gas increases. The enormous resource base of domestic coal can provide a vital insurance policy for energy resources supply. It is the nation's mainstay at present and is likely to continue as such, provided industry can effectively explore and demonstrate ways to make it environmentally more benign. This environmental issue for coal divides into two parts. One is to get the most useful lifetime out of the large national investment in existing coal capacity; the other is to find the next generation of technology that exploits a fundamentally different systems approach to clean coal combustion. One development that looks especially promising involves the marriage of coal and gas technologies. This comes about from the development of efficient coal gasifiers that can feed a system using a gas turbine and a combined steam cycle. Such a system can make a technically and eco- nomically practical transition from a low-efficiency gas turbine cycle to a

98 RICHARD E. IRALZHISER

NEAR-TERA! CHALLENGE FOR POOR PITS 99 achieved without significantly compromising economic well-being. For the utilities, the energy/environment dilemma is especially confounding because electricity is itself such an important means to reconciliation of societal ex- pectations, including environmental ones. THE ROLE OF ELEc@1KICITY IN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PRODUCTIVITY Over the centuries, auxiliary sources of energy have enabled man to leverage the economic benefits deliverable from human inputs of capital, and mental or physical labor. In the last century, electricity has amplified the economic productivity of society, initially through widespread use of motors as the muscle of our increasingly sophisticated factories. In recent years, the computer revolution has built on the versatility of electricity to move us into the electronic era, in which both man and machine work smarter and faster, achieving still higher productivity levels. This versatility reflects the "form value" of electrici~the ease of moving it and of turning it on or off (Schmidt, 1986~. The form value accounts for the remarkably rapid growth of its use, despite limited thermodynamic efficiency of the Carnot cycle (cycle efficiencies of about 5 percent were common for the first decade or two) and losses in transmission. Figure 1 shows the contrasting changes in energy and electricity inten- sity of our economy over the past 35 years. The use of electricity per unit of gross national product (GNP) increased until about 1975, after which it leveled off. The use of electricity has grown over the past decade at about the same rate as the economy but has been trending slightly upward again relative to GNP since 1985. Meanwhile, the intensity of energy use in our economy has declined sharply over this period since 1973. In the post-OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) period, the sharp decline comes from improved use efficiencies, in the Industrial and transportation sectors especially, and increasing conversion to electricity generally. The use of electricity has also reached higher efficiencies in many conventional applications. However, there are a continuing stream of new industrial applications for electricity and a continued growth in the commercial sectors that have maintained the electricipr-GNP ratio, even though the ratio of ener~v to, GNP has been falling (National Research --A V Council, 1986~. Among the most important attributes of electrician emphasized by events of the past two decades is He ability to produce it from a wide range of resources, varying from geothermal sources and garbage on one end of the spectrum to the atom and sunlight on the other. This flexibility is central to the optimistic outlook for the increasing role of electricity in meeting our energy, environmental, and economic needs.

100 28 24 of CO 20 Cal 0 tin SO - m co A 12 8 4 o 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 _ -_' Total Energy Intensity ~ _~ /ctricity Intensity I I , , RIC~4RD E. BALZHISER 0.8 0.7 0.6 0~5 c`` oo 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 O Year FIGURE 1 Changes in intensity of energy use in the U.S. economy, 195~1985. Intensity is shown as the ratio of energy use, in thousands of British thermal units (Btu) and in kilowatt-hours (kWh), to U.S. gross national product (GNP) in 1982 dollars. IMPACIS OF REGULATIONS The dramatic size of the political and legislative response to environ- mental concerns is shown in Figure 2, which chronicles laws and regulations aimed at controlling the effects of energy-related activity on air, water, and land use (Yeager and Baruch, 1987~. The early challenges were the most visible and aesthetically disturbing forms of pollution, such as smoke and strip mining wastage. Pollution of the waterways, by both chemical and thermal pollutants, received attention as civic and recreational interests became affected. Finally, concerns began to focus on invisible traces of chemical constituents in gas, liquid, and solid effluents. The sensitivity of routine measurements has unproved from parts per million, through parts per billion, to parts per trillion with a little more effort. These capabilities and associated concerns led to proliferation of legislation that began in the mid-1960s and continues virtually unabated today. The overall result is an enormous, uncoordinated patchwork of control requirements for smoke, air and water pollution, solid wastes, noise, and aesthetics. The Clean Air Act (CAA), which was originally focused on human health effects much more than environmental considerations, required a seemingly simple unit operation, flue gas scrubbing, to remove sulfur dioxide (SO:) from most coal plants built after 1971. These scrubbers introduced utilities to the world of chemical or process engineering and, for many companies, things have not been quite the same since (see Figure 3~. Today, the nation's power plants include 62,000 megawatts of capacity with

NEAR-TERM CHALLENGE FOR POWER PLANTS 50 DO 25 o ._ o SARA NWpA EPM CWA ALA FLPMA ~RCRA ESECA ~TSCA ESA ~ SDWA CZMA NEPA ~ OSHA NHPA ~ CM cwna ~ WSRA WL RA - RHA ~ IA ~~r~ WRA ~ WRPA _~ FWCA Aft _w row TGA _ _ ~I I ~ 1895 1915 1935 1955 1975 1995 Year 101 1973 - Endangered Species Act (ESA) 1974 - Deepwater Port Act (DPA) 1974 - Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) 1974 - Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act (ESECA) 1976 - Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) 1976 - Federal Land Policy and Management Act (PUMA) 1976 - Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) 1977 - Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) 1977 - Clean Water Act (CWA) 1977- Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) 1977 - Soil and Water Resources Conservation Act (SWRCA) 1978 - Endangered Species Act Amendments (ESM) 1978- Environmental Education Act (EEA) 1980- Comprehensive Environmental Response Compensation and Uability Act (CERCLA) 1899 - River and Harbors Act (RHA) 1902 - Reclamation Act (RA) 1910 - Insecticide Act (IA) 191 1 - Weeks Law (WL) 1934 - Taylor Graring Act (TGA) 1937 - Flood Control Act (FCA) 1937 - Wildlife Restoration Act (WRA) 1958 - Fish and Wildlife Coordination Act (FWCA) 1964 - Wilderness Act DIVA) 1965 - Solid Waste Disposal Act (SWDA) 1965 - Water Resources Planning Act (WRPA) 1966 - National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) 1968 - Wild and Scenic Rivers Act (VVSRA) 1969 - National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) 1970 - Clean Air Act (CM) 1970 - Occupational Safety and Health Act (OSHA) 1972 - Water Pollution Control Act (NPCA) 1972- Marine Protection, Research and Sanctuaries Act (MPRSA) 1982 - Nuclear Waste Policy Act (NWPA) 1972 - Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA) 1984 - Resource Conservation and Recovery Act 1972- Home Control Act (HCA) Amendments (RCRAA) 19?2 - Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) 1972 - Parks and Waterways Safety Act (PWSA) 1972 - Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) 1984 - Environmental Programs and Assistance Act (EPM) 1986 - Safe Drinking Water Act Amendments (SDWM) 1986 - Superfund Amendments and Reorganization Act (SARA) FIGURE 2 Growth in the number of U.S. environmental laws. scrubbers operating and 27,000 megawatts of scrubber capacity planned and under construction. Congress has amended the original CAA to require a scrubber on essentially every new coal plant and is now contemplating a retrofit re- quirement for old coal plants to reduce acid deposition in the eastern half of the United States. Stiff emission standards are being considered for oxides of nitrogen (NO=) as well, posing further challenges for coal-fired plants. Selective catalytic reduction is already commonly used on fossil stations in Japan to achieve very low NOR emissions. Its operation on U.S.

NEAR-TERM CHALLENGE FOR POWER PI-ANTS 103 coal plants poses much more serious engineering and operating challenges because c)f the lower grades of coals Epically used. Combustion modifica- tion options can provide substantial NOR reductions at a fraction of the cost of catalytic reduction. The key point with respect to further environmental legislation aimed at air quality is the growing disparity between the price to the U.S. economy through higher electricity costs and the marginal air quality benefits attainable this way. Environmental demands are not the only challenges to which utilities must adjust. Large uncertainties in long-term fuel prices and availability continue. Legislative and regulatory changes are reshaping the business of electricity supply and the obligation-to-serve concept. Meanwhile, electrical load growth continues (in some regions at phenomenal rates in 1988) and existing capacity ages. Given the growing reluctance of utilities and their regulators to add generating capacity, the need to sustain the performance of existing plants is more important than ever. The present and planned generation mix by resource is shown in Figure 4. Coal continues to be the backbone of the current mix, representing 44 percent of the capacity and supplying 55 percent of the kilowatt-hours in 1987, much of it in the nation's heartland. A surprisingly large fraction of U.S. electricity generating capacity nationwide uses oil or gas. Because many of these units were built in days of very low oil and gas prices, much of this capacity is in peaking gas turbines that are relatively inefficient and typically lack flexibility to use alternative fuels. ~day, given the higher efficiencies available with more modern combustion turbines and combined cycles, coupled with current low oil and gas prices, much of the planned generating capacity for the next decade will fall into this category. It is more difficult to anticipate and track closely, because many decisions are being put off as long as possible. The role of independent producers that are less subject to regulation can bridge important gaps where demand growth is foreseen to outpace capacitor. However, this capacity is without the obligation to serve, so a new balance may have to be struck between reliability of services and costs, as independent generation becomes a noticeable percentage of capacity in any given region. In Figure 4, the hydroelectric component remains relatively stable, and nuclear capacity growth ends with completion of the few remaining plants the pipeline. In the current public and regulatory climate, no chief executive officer of a public utilibr will even consider another nuclear plant in his remaining tenure, nor are significant additions to U.S. hydroelectric power likely. Yet, along with intensified conservation, these are among the most desirable options with respect to air quality or global warming concerns. Figure 5 shows the requirements for new power generating capacity implied by today's demand as well as 1, 2, and 3 percent compounded growth until

104 1 000 cO :' E - i' co co 200 o RICI14RD E. 84LZHISER · ~Oil: ~ & Gas 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year FIGURE 4 Current and projected electric power generating capacity of U.S. utilities, by fuel. Power generating construction by U.S. utilities is reaching completion with undefined commitments to meet future customer load growth. SOURCES: Utility Data Institute (19883; Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (l988~. the year 2010. Clearly, the United States is in trouble if demand parallels economic growth as it has historically. However, the real concern and more serious near-term challenge to utilities is whether they can even afford to keep some of the existing generation operating. The shaded region in Figure 5 is a reminder that, historically, a capacity margin of at least 17 percent has been required to service users reliably at times of peak demand. Even if that performance might be improved somewhat in the future with added transmission, additional capacity will still be required. If the aging of this capacity is considered, as shown in Figure 6, the challenges become clear. All components of the mix will be well advanced in age by the turn of the century. Like much of the aging national infrastructure, it is taken for granted as we live comfortably for the moment on the investments of the past The operating licenses of about one-third of U.S. nuclear capacity will have expired by 2010. More than half of fossil capacity will be more than 30 years of age by 2000. Up to a third of U.S. hydroelectric capacity faces relicensing and, in some cases, serious questions of safety between now and 2010. The challenges keep coming. The productivity and reliability of aging plants are increasingly difficult to sustain, given typical original design lifetimes of 30 years (themselves often optimistic) and the cyclic operation many units have experienced. The cost of providing for modest growth is substantial, let alone having to

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106 RIC~4RD E. RA1ZHISER replace large portions of the existing mu. Given the fuel, environmental, and institutional uncertainties existing today, most decisions are being deferred until absolutely necessary. Short-term factors will likely dominate, which means some unattractive long-term prices may be payable in lowered reliability of service and high replacement costs. Given the popularity of prudency reviews and major disallowances of investments after the fact by public utility commissions, there is an obvious reluctance to invest in scrubbers on aging coal plants when these could soon be made obsolete by still further requirements for the reduction of emissions. Moreover, concerns about global warming could do to coal what unlimited intervention has done to nuclear power. The investment risk of both options far exceeds that of oil and gas, and environmental intervention can drive up costs unpredictably. Commitments for new generation are logically moving to combustion turbines and combined cycles where these exposures are minimized. If U.S. gas reserves and the ability to produce and transport gas are as abundant as the utility industry projects, that is a reasonable path, provided it is possible to keep robust systems with some diversity and contingency options. Developing technology opportunities can help deal with this concern. TRENDS IN EFFICIENCY An important track record of engineering achievement is shown in Figure 7, which illustrates a sustained improvement in thermal efficiency accompanied by a continuing decline in the cost of electricity over most of the last century. The reversal in both efficiency and cost coincide with imposition of more stringent emission controls for particulates and SO2, as well as for thermal discharges. Energy requirements and losses associated with these control devices more than offset continued engineering improve- ments in both gas and steam cycle conversion technology that had pushed actual power plant thermal efficiencies above 40 percent. The new challenge to which the industry is now responding is to reverse the negative pressures on thermal efficiency and, at the same time, improve environmental controls. Holistic approaches to past and future environmental concerns have been pursued doggedly over the past 15 years, recently with amazing success. CLEAN POWER FROM COAL Leo basic technologies have been adapted for producing clean power from coal: fluidized-bed combustion (FBC) and integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC). Both technologies avoid the need for scrubbers

NEAR-TERM CHALLENGE FOR POWER PLANTS 107 Y A <1, 1 0~ ._ ~ oh 10~ 106 ~ - 1 05 ~ a) ._ :$: a) 2 s 10 10 50 40 30 20 10 107 600 - Pulverize~ Coal \~. First ~ / Station _ ~ - - - Combined Cycle - Supercritical l Boiler \ `_ _ 1 - O _ , , , ,IO_ 18~30 1900 1920 1940 19601990 Year 500 400 300 0 200 100 FIGURE 7 Power plant evolution. As the thermal efficiency of coal-fired steam electric generation increased from about 5 percent in the late 1800s to 35~0 percent in the late 196Os, fuel Consumption per kilowatt of power produced decreased by 85 percent. Dunng the same period, boiler size increased from 50 kilowatts to 1,2~ megawatts. As a result, the cost of new generating capacity dropped from $350 per kilowatt in 1920 to $130 per kilowatt in 1967 (constant 1967 dollars), and average residential service cost dropped from $0.25 to $0.02 per kilowatt-hour. This pattern of improved efficiency and lower energy costs ended in the late 196Qs, which suggests that existing power plants had approached limits set by thermodynamics, available materials, and economics. Moreover, it coincided with the increasing priority on controlling environmental pollutants. by internalizing means for control of emissions in the combustion process. Waste products are more manageable and even salable. Fluidized-bed combustion captures sulfur from burning coal in a bed of huidized limestone; NOR formation is suppressed by virtue of lower temperatures in the combustor (see Figure 8~. Ninetr percent of SO2 removal is achievable, and NOR levels are Epically between 200 and 300 parts per million (ppm), or well below (about half) of today's new source performance standards. These lower and more uniform combustion temperatures also permit increased fuel flexibility, because combustion temperatures remain below the temperature at which the ash melts and becomes slag. Adaptability to a wide range of fuels is a major advantage for FBC. It helps to ensure competitive fuel costs as prices trend upward. These advantages are being demonstrated at a scale of approximately 80 to 160 megawatts in several key projects. Early results at Northern States Power in Minneapolis (130 megawatts), Montana-Dakota (80 megawatts), and Colorado-Ute (110 megawatts) have been extremely instructive and encouraging. Projects at TVA/Duke and American Electric Power will

108 Superheaterlreheater _ 41 ~ 1 Fluidized bed of particles surround in-bed boiler tubes RICHARD E. BALZHISER High pressure steam to turbine Convection Water in _ ~ pass , ~ | flue gas ecycle ·, ·~ ~ Cool system < <, flue gas 14.. · ~ ~r Solids , ~ recycle J system Hc'` flue aa~ FIGURE 8 Fluidized-bed combustion (IBM) of coal. Modern FBC boilers can burn even high-sulfur coal cleanb, meeting emissions standards without scrubbed for flue gas. Forced air suspends a mixture of coal, limestone, ash, and sand, maintaining a turbulent, fluidlike bed in which some of the boiler tubes are immersed. Sulfur released by the burning coal is captured as solid calcium compounds by reaction with the limestone panicles in the fluidized bed. The excellent heat transfer within the bed limits the combustion temperature, which avoids the formation of NOR and the melting of ash into slag that could block the furnace. With low-sulfur fuels, a bed of mainly coal ash or sand captures most of the residual sulfur. explore the operational regimes of FBC pressurized to higher than atmo- spheric pressures. The FBC projects have been making important but evolutionary ad- vances in combustion technology. Meanwhile, the IGCC has made what can be considered a quantum jump forward. Successful operation of large demonstration plants at Southern California Edison's Cool Water site in California and, more recently, at Dow Chemical's Plaquemine, Louisiana, plant provide the basis for clean use of coal for the next century. The Cool Water plant has operated with high- and low-sulfur coals over the past five years, producing a plume comparable to that of the natural gas fired combined-cycle plant adjacent to it Emissions of SO2, NO=, and particulates are all below federal and state requirements as shown in Table 1 (Spencer, 1986~. The vitrified solids leaving the gasified are virtually inert, passing tough California leaching tests for contamination of drinking

HE4R-1~RM CHAI1£NGE FOR POWER PLANTS TABLE 1 Cool Water Program Heat Recovery Steam Generator Stack Emissions (Utah Coal) Emissions Parts per Pounds per Million, Pounds Million Effluent volume per Hour Btu Permit requirement (lO)a 35b 0033 Actual test result 9 33 0.033 NOx Permit requirement (27)a 140 0.06S Actual test result 23 61 0.061 Particulates Permit requirement Actual test result - 1 0.001 bNominal translation from pounds per hour at typical conditions. Environmental Protection Agency permit requirements for Utah (SUFCO) design coal correspond to 95% sulfur removal. Permit requirement (and expected SO2 emissions) for Illinois No. 6 coal test is 175 pounds per hour, corresponding to 97% sulfur removal. 109 water. Requirements for cooling water are less stringent in these plants than in conventional coal plants using scrubbers. Even more impressive has been the high level of availability (70 percent) realized in 1987 by this first-of-a-kind plant. If carbon dioxide (CO2) must eventually be removed from plant effluents, IGCC technology can probably best accommodate this requirement-not without cost, but at costs below other coal-based alternatives. With today's gas prices and system base load capacity, simple gas turbines for peaking are often the option of choice for most utilities. With proper planning and siting, these units can be upgraded in several stages, first from a simple cycle to a combined gas-and-steam cycle with an increase in output and in thermal efficiency. Where coal becomes the fuel of choice, an integrated gasifies can be added. This phased growth adaptability of IGCC makes it particularly attractive to utilities at the present time. The Fl3C and IGCC options also have application in repowering some existing fossil units. Repowering by using either option, where feasible, achieves SOc and NON control in addition to improving overall plant productivity a much preferred alternative to scrubbers. The application of FBC to the Black Dog unit of Northern States Power gained 25 megawatts of capacity and 25 years of useful life.

110 40 s 3 30 - - O 20 a) N - a) > 10 Commercial Technology Advanced Technology-Retrofit Plants Advanced Technology-New Plants o _ W Linings 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 :.:..::. Advanced Coal Cleaning...:.. ::.: ' and Dry Scrubbing : :.. ,~,~ a] a- ~e ·~e te ~ ~ RlC~4RD E. BALZHISER it, ,~ Wet ^~ Scrubbing - \\\\\\\\\w Percent SO2 or NOX Emission Reduction FIGURE 9 Control options for SO2 and NO=. Advanced coal cleaning and dry scrubbing retrofit options (B) offer oost'ffective emission reductions at levels between present physical coal cleaning capabilities (A1) and wet flue gas snubbing (A2) for existing commercial power plants. Improved coal use technologies both for retrofitting (B) and for new plant applications (C3 can combine high levels of emission and effluent control with reduced costs and improved thermal efficiency. Levelized cost represents the present value of the lifestyle capital, operation, and maintenance costs normalized to a uniform annual cost. NOTE: 1 mill = 0.001 dollar. Figure 9 shows the control options for SO2 and NOR. Options for retrofitting existing plants win advanced technology to SO2 typically have lower removal potential, but also lower capital costs than wet flue gas scrubbers. In the case of NOR, similar retrofit controls now under develop- ment in this country offer appreciable NOR reduction at lower capital and operating costs than current commercial scrubbers. The essence of clean coal programs is to provide long-term holistic solutions to coal's environmental impacts, such as FBC and IGCC, and better retrofit technology. The latter is essential to mitigate legitimate environmental problems without forcing premature retirement of aging units, which are still a major part of U.S. base load capacitor. As extended lifetime performance becomes an increasingly important objective for older fossil and nuclear units, it is necessary to look for better indicators of declining safety margins or incipient failures of equipment. Ideally such deficiencies or degradation effects are detected early enough to permit the scheduling of repair work It is also preferable to detect such conditions so as to get plants off Be line in time to avoid damaging failures. One of the keys to maintaining performance is much broader

NE4R-TERM CHALLENGE FOR POWER PLANTS in ._ {5) o o Cat a) a) Q c 111 Chimney Vibration T G TOFS;On Flame Flicker T-G Vibration Tube Leaks O Bearing Rubs Ultrasonic NDE Arcing _ Creep NDE ~ Coal Moisture Meter ..... 10 103 105 1O1O 1015 1o2o 1025 Electromagnetic Spectrum (Frequency, hertz) FIGURE 10 Technologies for monitoring and inspection of power generation equipment in operation. Low-ffequency devices monitor or detect low-f~quengy phenomena, such as turbogenerator (T-G) torsion and vibration; higher frequencies are used for nondestructive evaluation (NDE), among other purposes. coverage of equipment with on-line diagnostics, an emerging technology of great potential value to utilities. This involves both new sensor technologies and computer-assisted discrimination and diagnostic tools, including expert systems and artificial intelligence applications. Figure 10 shows the general kinds of devices and signals that can serve to monitor equipment while it operates. Devices use a wide spectrum of frequencies to detect, for example, incipient failures in turbine rotors or hot spots in a generator or combustion turbine. Avoidance of forced outage takes on added importance as equipment is operated beyond original design lifetimes. CARBON DIOXIDE AND GLOBAL WARMING Much effort has been expended over the past 15 years to deal with the mandate to make cleaner use of coat The engineering accomplishments on this need-by many individuals and organi7~tion~have been impressive (Conference Report, 1987; Simbeck et aL, 1983~. Exploiting the foregoing technology opportunities addresses all but the most recent environmental concern-global warming. If minimization of CO2 emissions becomes a serious objective, the United States will most certainly want to revisit the

112 RICHARD E. BALZHISER nuclear option as well as redouble its efforts on solar energy, electric trans- portation, and improved efficiency in the generation and use of electricity. The United States can both engineer and afford these options. Many emerging countries can do neither and will likely continue to rely largely on coal and oil. CONCLUSION Power plants are becoming more oriented to chemical processes and, therefore, more adaptable to environmental goals. Coal gasification not only produces a clean fuel for combustion turbines or fuel cells but also the building blocks for methanol and many other petrochemicals. One should recognize that coal gasification represents the core of a coal refinery with electricity as only one of many products available. Who will most successfully commercialize this technology in the future? The opportunities for adding value are large. Given that coal can eventually be relied on for feedstock purposes, it appears that the United States can safely turn increasingly to gas for near- term energy needs. At current prices and with available combustion turbine and combined-cycle technology, it is the option of economic choice not only for peaking, but also for middle-range and some base load applications. It can be added quickly; it operates cleanly and emits less CO2 per kilowatt- hour than any other fossil option. It permits time to understand the issue of global warming better without imposing costs or ineffectual CO2 removal requirements. Finally, when gas prices rise, installation of coal gasifiers permits adaptation and continued productive use of the power generation investment. The electric power industry now has a technological tool kit that can meet most of the environmental challenges identified to date. Most important, the industry and the nation have an engineering capability that will continue to adapt to changes ahead. REFERENCES Balzhiser, R. E., and K E. Yeager. 1987. Coal-fired power plants for the future. Scientific American 257(September):100 107. Conference Report. 1987. Proceedings of Sixth Annual Conference on Coal Gasification, Electric Power Research Institute Report AP-5343-SR, October 1987. Palo Alto, Calif. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. 1988. Data base maintained by R. Congo, Office of Hydropower Incensing, Washington, D.C National Research Council, Energy Engineenng Board. 1986. Electricity in Economic Growth. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press Schmidt, P. 1986. Form Value of Electacibr. Pp. 199 227 in Electncity Use, Productive Efficiency and Economic Growth, S. Schu~r and S. Sonenblum, eds Palo Alto, Calif.: Electric Power Research Institute.

NEAR-TERM CHAI~NGE FOR POWER PI-ANTS 113 Simbeck, D. R., R L Dickenson, and E. D. Oliver. 1983. Guide to coal gasification systems. Electric Power Research Institute Report AP-3109, June 1983. Palo Alto, Cali£ Spencer, D. F., S. B. Alpert, and H. H. Oilman. 1986. Cool Water. Demonstration of a dean and efficient new coal technology. Science 232(May 2~:609 61~ Utility Data Institute. 1988. Edison Electric Institute power statistics data base. Washington, D.C. Yeager, K E., and S. B. Baruch. 1987. Environmental issues affecting coal technology: A perspective on U.S. trends Pp. 471-502 in Annual Reviews of Energy, Vol. 12. Palo Alto, Calif.: Annual Reviews, Inc.

Technology and Environment. 1989. Pp. 110136. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. Advanced Fossil Fuel Systems and Beyond THOMAS H. LEE The terms of the energy debate have changed dramatically over the last 15 years. Whereas the size of the fossil fuel resource base was the overriding concern of the 1970s, today the formidable challenge is how to use energy sources in ways that support social and economic development and protect the environments ~ develop a strategic perspective on how to meet this challenge in the long term, it will be necessary to explore some of the misconceptions of the past that led to costly errors in energy planning. Such a review, in retrospect and prospect, will help answer the question: What happens after the fossil age? THE MYTH OF "RUNNING OUT OF RESOURCES" For years, energy planners thought that the driving force for the shift from one energy source to another was resource depletion: Whatever is the most desirable and necessary resource will run out quickly or soon enough to push the movement to alternatives. This running out hypothesis has pervaded the bureaucratic, business, and scientific communities for decades. It has served as a basis for national policy, industrial policy, investment policy, and research policy. In the case of energy, it is a myth that resource depletion is the driving force for resource substitution. Studies of nonfuel minerals have led to a similar conclusion (Tilton, 1984~. For centuries, fuelwood, animal and farm waste, and animal and human muscle power were the mainstays of energr supply. Compared with contemporary energy consumption patterns, these traditional energy forms 114

ADVANCED FOSSIL FUEL SYSTEMS AND BEYOND 1o2 jo1 10° 10-1 10-2 1850 1 900 Mood ,X~,= - ~ _: Natural Gas 0.99 0.90 0.10 Nuclear \/ ~Fusions art 1 -~ 1 1 ~ Or 1 0.01 2050 1 950 2000 Year 115 c - o ._ LL FIGURE 1 Histoncal and projected trends in global pnma~y energy consumption. The amount of energy (tons of coal equivalent) from each source is plotted as a Faction f of the total energy market, with log Aft-f' ~ the ordinal=. Me smith Ocular trends are the model estimates based on historical data; irregular lines are historical data. SOURCE: Marchetti and Nakicenovic (1979~. were used at low absolute levels and low densities of generation and end use. Essentially, their exploitation was not dependent on infrastructure for transformation and transport. These patterns were altered with the emergence and intensification of the industrial revolution of the nineteenth century. As Figure 1 shows, fuelwood was replaced by coal during the latter half of the nineteenth century. Fuelwood's share declined from some 70 percent in 1860 to about 20 percent in the early l900s at the same time that coal's share increased from 30 to almost 80 percent. Fuelwood was abandoned, not primarily because of the threat of resource depletion, but because coal mining and coal end-use technologies provided an energy source that could do what fuelwood disband better. Although it was possible (and still is) to operate trains and ships with fuelwood and use it for shaft power and electricity, advances in coal technology made it increasingly easier, more efficient, more reliable, and cheaper to do so with coal. However, by 1910 coal's rapid growth had ceased, with its share of the primary market peaking some 10 years later and declining in relative shares thereafter in a pattern that is almost symmetrical with that of fuelwood 50 years earlier. By the early 1960s, coal had been displaced by crude oil as the dominant fuel on the primary market, both in market shares

116 THONGS H. I :FE and on an absolute basis. ~day, a similar substitution pattern can be observed. Coal resources were (and still are) abundant. But with the discovery around 1860 of oil by drilling, a set of oil-related technologies began a development process that eventually led to the large-scale and efficient refining of crude oil into a broad range of products and chemical feedstock These innovations opened the market for oiL On the end-use side, refined oil products proved to be far superior to coal for powering trains, automobiles, and aircraft; for generating electricity; and for providing residential and commercial heating. All of these end-use applications, except automobiles and aircraft, had been achieved first by use of coal. The primary radically new application opened up by the use of oil was, of course, aviation, now a large consumer of refined oil products. Nonetheless, around 1980 crude oil peaked on the world primary market, both in terms of shares and on an absolute basis, and began to decline thereafter. As Figure 1 also shows, natural gas and nuclear energy have been steadily gaining market shares against crude oil: natural gas since the 1920s, and nuclear energy since 1970. Thus, from the historical perspective, energy substitution has been driven by the availability of a set of new technologies that enabled an alternative energy source to satisfy better the end-use demand of society. Another point seldom mentioned is that the so-called reserves them- selves are actually [unctions of technology. The more advanced the tech- nology, the more reserves become known and recoverable. An excellent example is the Kern River story as described by Adelman (1987) in an address before the National Press Club. Kern River in Califorrua was discovered in 1899. After 43 yeam of production, it had "remaining reserves" of 54 million barrels In the next 43 yeam of life, it produced not 54 but 730 million. At the end of that time, in 1986, it had "remaining reserves" of about 900 million barrels The past trend is clear: technology has been the engine of change in the energy sector. I believe that the role of technology in energy will continue to be the same as in the past, despite a shift in emphasis to environmental protection and other societal needs. NAT GAS: A BRIDGE TO THE POSTFOSSIL AGE? More than a decade ago, the International Institute for Applied Sys- tems Analysis (IIASA) forecast that after oil, natural gas and nuclear energy would be the dominant growth fuels over the next few decades. At that time, these predictions were a highly controversial and emotional issue. They have, however, stood the test of time reasonably well. New reserves have been discovered in many parts of the world. The consumption of methane in the world has been increasing (Figure 2), with the United

ADVANCED FOSSIL FUEL SYSTEMS AND BEYOND 104 103 - C7 1o2 10 ~ _ 10O 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1850 1900 1950 2000 J 117 Coal_ ~ ~ ,_J 1 '' Several Gas Wood / l iNuclear 1 950 Year FIGURE 2 World pama~y energy consumption (in gigawatt-yeam per year). SOURCE: Grubler and Nakicenovic (1988, p. 15~. States being the single exception. The U.S. Power Industry and Industrial Fuel Use Act of 1978 (Public Law 95~20, 42 USC 8301), forbidding the use of natural gas for electricity generation, was modified in 1987. There is ample evidence to indicate that the consumption trend will reverse. A more recent gas study by IIASA indicates that after the year 2000, Europe may have to depend increasingly on natural gas for its energy needs (Rogner, 1988~. 1b discuss further the likelihood that natural gas will become the bridge to the postfossil age, natural gas technologies must be examined in the framework of technology life cycles. In many ways, technological systems and biological systems can be described similarly. One can define in a qualitative way three different stages in the life cycle (Figure 3~: the embryonic, growth, and maturity stages. As a technology progresses through its life cycle, a number of measurable quantities evolve along S- shaped curves. The simplest S-shaped curve is described by the logistic equation. For any parameter x (e.g., performance, market size), dx/dt = By-x), where y is the upper limit (saturation value) for x, ~ is the time, and tic is a constant. When x is plotted against I, it has the form of a symmetrical

118 a, E a, ~5 on Ct I_ ho - a) CO' FIGURE 3 Technology life cycle. THOAI45 H. r FE ,: /Saturation or Senescence /- Early Development Time S curve. Let x) be denoted by A, which is the fraction of saturation value attained by x. If f/1-f is plotted versus time on a semilog scale, a straight line is obtained. Evolution of the technical performance of passenger aircraft may be used as an example (Figure 4). Instead of following closely a single straight line, there is a band, with the left line representing the performance of the best airplanes. If one had to choose between different modes of transporta- tion for investment purposes in the 1930s, the most favorable information that was available for aviation was on the DC-3. Still, comparing the performance, cost, and personal comfort of a DC-3 with that offered by railroads, one might easily have concluded in the 1930s that the railroad would remain superior. Fifty years later, there is no convenient way to travel between coasts in the United States by raiL From looking at Figure 4, the reason is clear. The young aviation technology of the 1930s improved its performance (as measured by passenger-kilometers per hour) by more than a factor of 100 over the following 40 years. The already mature railroad technology showed no such performance improvement. Examining energy technology in this context suggests that gas technol- ogy is still young. For years, natural gas was a by-product of oil exploration. Only recently have wells been drilled intentionally for gas exploration. By plotting logistically the drilling and production rates of so-called nonasso- ciated gas (Figures 5 and 6), the share of gas wells is seen to increase

ADVANCED FOSSIL FUEL SYSTEMS AND BEYOND 1o2 10' 10° 10-1 10-2 10-3 ~,~ ~ 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 ~.~' 119 /, - 1970/~- B747/ / TU-1 44 B707 / · ~ A300 TU-114~/ DCG10 L1011 L~7/ i Caravelle Do/ ·~CV340 DC A/ '' , Year At= 33yr Lag = 9 yr 0.99 0.90 - 0.50 x 11 o ._ 0.10 ~` 0.01 FIGURE 4 Improvement of passenger aircraft performance in thousands of passenger- kilometers per hour. Each point on the graph indicates the performance of a given aircraft when used in commercial operations for the first time. The upper curve represents a performance feasibility frontier for commercial aircraft; the performance of all other commercial aircraft at the time they were introduced was either on or below the curve. (tc is the estimated saturation level.) SOURCE: Lee and Nakicenovic (19~. while that of oil wells decreases. Figure 7 shows the substitution picture when nonassociated gas is separated from oil technology and shown as gas technology. If these trends continue, nonassociated gas exploration can be expected to grow for some time to come. We have also seen ad- vances in exploration through use of remote sensing by satellites and ground Truth measurements. Drilling technologies are also advancing underground, deeper and faster (Figure 83. Perhaps the most convincing dynamic technological advance for this case is the conversion efficiency of combined-cycle systems using natural gas. In a gas turbine combined-cycle (GTCC) system, exhaust from a gas turbine is fed into a residual heat boiler that generates steam for a bottoming steam cycle. The capital cost of such a plant is considerably lower than that of a coal-fired plant or a nuclear plant (about $500 per kilowatt), and the conversion efficiency is significantly higher. It is interesting to follow the advances of that single parameter. In the 1970s, the efficiency was in the

120 THONGS H. LEE 1o2 101 10° 10 1 10-2 =~_ . _ V Natural Gas I I I ~I I 0.99 0.90 rat ,~ ~1 1 1 960 0.50 -° lL 0.10 I . 0.01 1 980 2000 1900 1920 1940 Year FIGURE 5 Shares of successful oil and gas wells in the United States. SOURCE: Grubler and Nakicenovic (1988, p. 27~. high 30 percent range; in the beginning of the 1980s, it went up to 45~7 percent. In 1987 when Norway was considering such a plant, the efficiency quoted by suppliers was in excess of 50 percent, an interesting example of dynamics of technology. Despite their economic attractiveness, combined-~cle systems have not been considered a serious option in planning additions to utilities' future power generation in the United States. The reasons are many: the Fuel Use Act, lack of confidence in a reliable long-term gas supply, and lack of confidence in the performance of GTCC. A related issue that deserves attention Is the utility rate structure. Consider a hypothetical utility that has both nuclear and combined-pycle plants. If one computes the actual cost of electricity generated by the two plants, the combined-cycle plant might have an advantage. However, in daily dispatching decisions, the combined~cle plant may not be dispatched because its fuel cost is higher than that of a nuclear plant, and the high capital cost of the nuclear plant is already in the rate base. In dispatching, only the fuel cost counts, because the operating and maintainance costs are not a significant factor, but when the cost of elec- tncity from a third-party generation owner is compared with that from the electric utility companies, a different standard is used. Polic~ymakers find the total cost a better measure. Thus, a combined-pycle system that is

ADVANCED FO55rr FUEL SYSTEMS AND BEYOND 1o2 10' 10° 10 1 _ 10-2 i , , ~ 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 A_ ~ A Year MY ~ Gas Welts 121 0.99 0.90 _ £ 0.50 -I ct _ 0.10 1 1 0.01 1 990 2000 FIGURE 6 Natural gas production from oil and gas wells in the United States. SOURCE: Grubler and Nakicenovic (1988, p. 32~. 1o2 1o1 10° 1 10 10-2 1 ~ I I 0.99 b Wood Natural G:s .,~'C ~ Oil 0.90 0.10 't ~ ~ 0.01 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year - to - FIGURE 7 Energy substitution in the United States; gas from nonassociated wells is shown separately as gas technology. SOURCE: Grubler and Nakicenovic (1988, p. 37~.

122 1 ,000 co a) ~ 5,000 - Q a) . _ ._ ~1 0,000 Colonel Drake At = 83 yr ~1 1 1 1 1 THOMAS H. ME \_ 1951 \ Lone Star 1 Rogers ~4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - - - - 1 1 1 1 (12,250) 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year FIGURE 8 Maximum depth of exploratory drilling in the United States. SOURCE: Grubler and Nakicenovic (1988, p. 23~. not economic to dispatch in the utility system becomes a viable competi- tor outside the system. So, by changing one measurement arbitrarily, the deregulation of electricity generation makes sense. The MIT Power Systems Laboratory examined the economics of combined-cycle systems from the viewpoint of total cost (arbors and Flagg, 1986~. The analytic method used was the Electric Generation Expansion Analysis System (EGEAS), developed by MIT and Stone and Webster En- gineering Corporation for the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The EPRI-developed Regional Utility Systems allowed extrapolation to the entire U.S. system. With a set of reasonable assumptions, the study con- cluded that natural gas-fired combined-cycle systems with efficiency already in hand contributed to the optimal-capacity mix. In three of the six regions studied, they provided the majority or all of the optimal mid Concurrent with this, El-Masri (1985) made a comprehensive analy- sis of the efficiency of combined-cycle systems. It is important to point out that for decades, the technical development of gas turbines was influ- enced heavily by jet engine technology, developed by the U.S. Air Force for military purposes. Firing temperatures have increased (Figure 9), and high- temperature materials have been developed (Figure 10~. But because of

ADVANCED FOSSIL FUEL SYSTEMS AND BEYOND 123 the weight and space limitations for aircraft applications, the exhaust tem- perature from the gas turbine is not optimal for the bottoming steam cycle. This situation can be improved if reheating between the gas turbine stages is considered. In 1978 a national energy savings project (the Moonlight Project) started by the Japanese government included the development of a reheat gas turbine to optimize the performance of combined-cycle systems. This occurred after Japan, in an effort to diversify energy sources, ordered several gigawatts of combined-cycle systems from the General Electric Company. Results of the analysis done by El-Masri are shown in Figure 11, in which the combined-pycle system efficiency is plotted as a function of pressure ratios at various peak temperatures (measured by H. which is the ratio of the turbine inlet temperature to the ambient temperature). Each point represents the maximum efficiency configuration of a single-stage compressor and reheat turbine. The optimum number of turbine stages is indicated at each point. If one imposes a design constraint of three turbine stages (two reheats), the performances are shown by the dashed curves. With increased turbine inlet temperatures and higher compression ratios, efficiencies between 55 and 60 percent or even higher may be achieved. Thus, it is not unreasonable to say that combined~rcle systems are still in the growing phase of their life cycle. When the possibility of high'fficiengy combined-cycle systems was included in the EGEAS study, the results were indeed remarkable. The 3000 a' Ins 2000 Q) Q /Solid Blade - - - - /Convection Cooled /m pi ngement/film Cooled 1 000 1 1 1940 1960 t 980 2000 Year FIGURE 9 1l~rbine technology tends. SOURCE: Lee (1988, p. 135~.

124 THOMAS H. ME 2000 1 800 o - a) <~5 1 600 a) a) ~ nm/etallic 1400 _ / Air Melt 1200 1940 / 1 1 1 1 1 1 Directional Solidification 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1960 1980 2000 Year FIGURE 10 Progress in technologies for high-temperature materials development for turbine blades and disl~s. SOURCE: Lee (1988, p. 1363. most dramatic differences occurred in the Northeast and Southeast. Figures 12 and 13 show the expansion path for these two regions. Given the planning horizon of 15 years, only combined~cle additions make economic sense. This section has touched on the dynamics of only a few of the natural gas technologies. Similar attention should be given to exploration, drilling, down hole communication and control, production and transportation, and of course end use. The results of a 1986 workshop on these topics were recently published in a book entitled The Methane Age Wee et al., 1988~. Much remains to be done in engineering research and practice if methane is to become a bridge to the era beyond fossil fuels. ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS We have entered an era of increasingly complex patterns of interde- pendence between environmental and human development. These patterns are characterized by temporal and spatial scales transcending those of most contemporary political and regulatory institutions. What were once local

ADVANCED FOSSIL FZJEL SYSTEMS AND BEYOND 65 _ - - o of - ° 60 ._ ._ a) Cat ._ E 55 o C) 50 ~_ - H = 6.0 4/, o~ 7 ~' ~I. H = 5.5 33 In' 4~ ~ _ 4~- -` ~ - H = 4.5 H = 4.0 8 16 32 64 128 Compressor Pressure Ratio 125 FIGURE 11 Efficiencies of oombined~ycle systems at venous pressures and temperatures (H is the ratio of turbine inlet absolute temperature to ambient absolute temperature). Numbers above the curares indicate the number of turbine staged Dashed line shows the performance if the design is limited to three turbine staged SOURCE: El-Masn (19853. incidents of pollution shared through a common watershed or air basin now involve many nations, witness the concern for acid deposition in Europe and North America. What were once straightforward questions of conser- vation versus development now reflect complex linkages, witness the global feedbacks among energy and crop production, deforestation, and climate change that are evident in studies of the greenhouse effects. How these issues will effect the energy future Is hard to predict. One school of thought suggests that social structures and the ecolog- ical system possess a tremendous capacity to adapt to long-term changes. And because the uncertain in scientific information is so great, the need or feasibility to take actions now is questioned. Another school

10 CD 8 - Q u 4 1 990 126 THOAL4S H. ~ FE 12 _ · Total (GTCC + HECC) O GTCC ) . ~ 1 1 1 1 - - 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1995 2000 2005 Year FIGURE 12 Projected capacity of gas turbine and high'fficiency combined~ycle (HECC) systems in the Northeast. SOURCE: Lee (1988, p. 143). argues that most studies make convenient but unrealistic "surprise-free" assumptions regarding future developments in institutions, technology, and knowledge. Advocates of this perspective question whether the rate of climate change, under the assumption of continued, increasing emissions of infrared-trapping gases, would likely be too rapid to allow reasonable adaptive measures to be effective. While the debate is going on, it is extremely interesting to note that over the past 100 years, the global primary energy system has moved progressively toward hydrogen-rich quality fuels, as shown by Figure 14. The hydrogen-to-carbon JI/C3 ratio for fuelwood is roughly 0.1; for coal, 1.0; for oil, 2.0; and for natural gas, 4.0. The implications of this trend are far reaching, especially in light of recent discussions on the "airborne fraction" of emitted carbon dioxide (the portion of CO2 emitted that remains in the air). The fact that the deep oceans are huge sinks for CO2 instills hope that increases in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 may be brought to zero without cutting the emission from fossil fuel combustion to zero. The question is how fast the upper mung layer of the oceans can absorb CO2 from the atmosphere. Firor (1988) recently suggested that "it is possible that society could come close to stabilizing the atmospheric burden of CO2 with a 50 percent reduction in fossil fuel use." Although the quantitative conclusion will be a subject for debate for some time, there is general agreement that reduction in emissions from the supply side and

ADVANCED FOSSIL FUEL SYSTEMS AND BEYOND 16 14 12 3 1 0 - - 8 CO Q CO O 6 4 _ 2 - _' ~ ~ 1 1 1 1 990 · Total (GTCC ~ HECC) O GTCC r my' J r ~0' J d 1995 127 2000 Year 2005 FIGURE 13 Projected capacity of high+fficiency combined~ycle (HECC3 systems in the Southeast. SOURCE: Lee (1988, p. 143). conservation on the demand side (improvement in efficiencies) are the right things to do. More penetration by natural gas into the primary energy market is a step in that direction. It is gratifying that the historical trends are pointing that way. At the same time it is important to be mindful of the fact that substitution by natural gas may not be fast enough, but it will slow the buildup of CO2. How effective that can be, we do not know. We must also be aware that CO2 is only one of the "greenhouse gases." Another important gas in that family is methane itself. Recently, rice fields have become known as an important source of methane. It is almost unimaginable that people will cut down rice consumption. Yet, non-methane-emitting rice production may be a suitable and very difficult challenge for technologists (biotechnologists) to work on: How can the quality of rice be maintained by a different process? BEYOND THE FOSSIL AGE If natural gas is the bridge, what is on the other side of the river? There have been so many forecasts already that it is best not to add another. Forecasting in the energy field has proved a most hazardous profession.

128 THOA~15 H. LEE 102 10' loo 10 1o-2 0.99 0.90 0.50 ,~ i' H/C = 4 Nonfossil H2? '' Wood H/C = 0.1 Coal H/C = 1 Oil H/C = 2 Gas H/C = 4 , ~1 1 1 1 ~ 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 Year 0.10 0.01 o ._ - FIGURE 14 Evolution of the hydrogen-to carbon ratio in pama~y energy sources, 185(~ 2100. SOURCE: Marchetti (1985~. Most forecasts have been wrong, and it is aptly suggested that the only way to forecast is to do it frequently! It is not productive to engage in debates on which forecast is right; rather, we should ask ourselves: If some of the forecast turns out to be right, what does it mean to us? Should we protect ourselves against particular events? These are only two of many questions planners should ask before they formulate a set of criteria for planning and design of future energy systems. For this purpose, a review of a few additional lessons from the past will help. Perhaps the most important lesson is that uncertainty is a fact of life. Past belief in the single-trend forecast for oil prices has cost the United States billions of dollars in synfuel projects and in international bank loans. One criterion for future energy systems planning should be robustness against uncertainties. The next important lesson is that the future will most likely not be simply a smooth extrapolation of the past but will be marked by fluctuations and new factors in competition. In business, unexpected events are referred to as contingencies. It Is the responsibility of planners to imagine the surprises as best they can and then formulate a plan to deal with them, including triggering criteria and timing. Traditionally, studies of energy and

ADVANCED FOSSIL FUEL SYSTEMS AND BEYOND 129 ecological systems have been based on surprise-free models (Brooks, 1986~. The gradual, incremental unfolding of the world system in such models with parameters derived from a combination of time series and cross-sectional analysis of the existing system is precisely why most forecasts are wrong. Thus, robustness must include contingency planning. Another lesson is that defending the status quo may be a poor strategy. Societies are continually developing and seeking to meet new demands, be they in areas of safety or environmental quality. The responsibility of the technical community is to anticipate societal challenges and be ready with technological solutions. Finally, over the long run, market economics is still the controlling factor. Neither experts nor the public should be misled by the power of noncommercial technical success and overestimate the power of government mtenention. The United States believed that if it could send a man to the moon, it should be able to solve the energy crisis in the same way, by massive government financial support However, the economics of the space race differs from that of the energr business. The United States believed it could change in a lasting way the economic attractiveness of technologies by building demonstration plants with massive government financial support. Looking back, we find what makes economic sense: In many areas the private sectors went ahead, without help from the government, to increase the efficiency of heat recovery in combustors, for example, and to add insulation and temperature controls in commercial or residential structures. For products that did not make sense, the '~wise" organizations took government money for R&D, and the not so wise lost their own money in addition to that of the government. In the end, those options mat did not make economic sense at the outset were never developed commercially. These lessons suggest that future energy systems should at least meet the following criteria. They should be economic, efficient, safe, and of high quality. They should also be clean in relationship to the environment and robust with respect to uncertainties. One point needs to be made with regard to the robustness requirement: that is, the system concept must be adaptive to a range of technological advances. One should neither count on revolutionary advances to the same degree as was widespread after 1973 nor seek only revolutionary advances. Future systems must build on the current technological menu and be ready to accept new items when they become available. Energy engineers have been searching for a concept that is broadly applicable to energy systems planning and design, without being heavily constrained by issues such as indigenous supply; technological readiness; and local social, political, or economic conditions. From the technological

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132 17IOAL4S H. ME viewpoint, the concept should be evolutionary but adaptive to revolutionary technological changes. The integrated energy system is such a concept. The concept of integrated energy systems is not new. The oil refin- e~y/petrochemical complex and the steel mill are two good examples, even though they are never referred to as such. In an oil refinery and petro- chemical complex, there is no clear distinction between product streams and energy streams. Crude oil, liquefied petroleum gases, natural gas, and other industrial gases are the primary materials used by the complex, but each is used for many purposes. For example, natural gas is used as fuel in heaters, as a feedstock, or as fuel for the unit making hydrogen. Industrial gases are exploited for their maximum benefit. The entire steam cycle is in- tegrated: high-quality steam for turbines, medium~uality steam for process boilers, and low-quality steam for preheaters. Even more important, the steam system is integrated with the electricity system. The result is a robust, flexible system, highly efficient with respect to both energy and capital, and therefore economically sound. This is an integrated energy system, whether we call it that or not; neither would anyone design a modern refinery in any other way. Another example is the conventional steel mill, for which the primary raw materials are coal and iron ore. Although the mill has a huge need for energy, it does not burn coal but instead uses coal as a chemical raw matenal. The coal is coked, a process that uses gases released when the coal is heated in the absence of air to remove the chemicals it contains. Coke is used in blast furnaces to reduce the iron oxide in the ore to metallic iron. Although one of the primary products of these processes is heat, the coal is not burned. These are shining examples of integrated energy systems in which loss of heat or useful components is minimized, thereby enhancing economic e~ciengy. Operational and capital costs are also minimized. These systems are possible for several reasons: One is that the enterprise is big enough to rise above issues of investment and disciplinary (or professional) barriers. Another is that there are no significant regulations that stand in the way of their design, construction, and operation as integrated systems. These conditions do not hold true for all energy-related enterpnses. Electric utility companies would have a variety of difficulties if they decided to enter the industrial gas business. First, let us look at integrated energy systems (IES) from a conceptual point of view Figure 15~. On initial inspection, the IES appears to be a complex and unmanageable system. Although Figure 15 shows a number of boxes representing technological steps, the boxes represent options (for clarity, not all options are shown), not required components. The IES diagram offers alternatives in each stage of the system. There are five aspects to the system: (1) energy sources, including air and water;

ADVANCED FOSSIL FUEL SYSTEMS AND BEYOND 133 (2) transformation processes (incoming fuels are transformed to industrial gases); (3) industrial gases and gas separation; (4) transformation processes (industrial gases are transformed to more usable energy forms, electricity or chemicals); and (5) product to final consumption. The simplest integrated energy system, the cogeneration system using natural gas, for example, can be traced from gas to combined cycle to electricity and process heat and steam. Other systems can be constructed by selecting the appropriate options, as shown in Figure 16. The purpose here is not to promote any one alternative but to show the fle~biliy of the concept from three viewpoints: robustness with respect to uncertainty, ability to adapt to technological advances, and environmental protection. The search for robustness must be an important part of strategic planning in energy. For a number of years, IIASA has conducted, in cooperation with Alan Manne of Stanford University, an annual survey of a number of forecasts of oil prices (Manne et al., 1985~. Figure 17, containing recent survey results, shows that the range of all the forecasts is very wide and that the projected price of oil depends on the price at the time the forecasts were made. For planners, these survey results indicate that our knowledge of the future will always be uncertain. The transformation process between the primary sources and the set of intermediate industrial gases in Figure 15 provides robustness against uncertainty in supply. Inhere are, for example, three potential sources of hydrogen: solid fuel such as coal, liquid fuel, or natural gas. There are two sources of carbon monoxide and oxygen. The energy required to produce these gases can come from hydrocarbons or from nuclear power. Of course, to make use of the robustness, the system must be designed to have the required flexibility. The IES concept can also adapt to new technologies. Like fuel cells as an example. Thday, the question of economic feasibility of fuel cells with phosphoric acid technology remains unanswered. with molten carbonate technology, the uncertainty lies mostly in the technical area. If the technical obstacles are overcome and the economics of either of the two technologies becomes attractive, fuel cells could be incorporated in a straightforward manner into an integrated energy system, as shown in Figure 15. The same can be said for high-temperature electrolysis, methanol production, new gas separation systems, renewable sources such as photovoltaics, and new nuclear reactor technologies, be they high-temperature gas reactors or fusion. The question is where, not whether, they belong in the system. Thus, the concept of integrated energy systems is friendly to both evolutionary and revolutionary technologies. 'rhe ultimate dream for energy systems zero emission~can be ac- complished only with a hydrogen economy. Integrated energy systems offer a technological road map toward this environmental goat At present, all

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ADVANCED FOSSIL FUEL mTEMS AND BEYOND 250 ._ o 3 0 0 -0 0) 150 a) Cal ._ Cal s: o ._ Cal 20~) in O 100 co - ~n o 50 - _ 1 / J _ O ~I 1 970 Poll Medians Actual Prices (U.S. Imports) ,:` - 1980 1 990 Year - - 35 ~3 2000 2010 FIGURE 17 Changing outlook for oil pnces: actual paces from 1970 to 1985 and median projections as published lay the IIASA International Energy Workshop, 1981-1985. Polls on expected pace of crude oil were taken at roughly Month intervals: poll 1 in December 1981, poll 2 in July 1983, and poll 3 in January 19SS. SOURCE: Manne et al. (1985~. parties in the energy production chain share responsibility for environmen- tal protection. In an integrated energy system, the responsibility is focused on a well-identified set of processes (the left-hand portion of Figure 15~. This should make the job of environmental protection easier. Residential, commercial, and industrial consumers would welcome energy forms with greatly reduced environmental concerns. Implementation of integrated energy systems requires major changes in industrial infrastructure. It requires integration of chemical, petrochem- ical, and electric power industries, along with regulatory and economic adjustments. How fast trends may advance is unkown, but some indications are encouraging. Carbon dioxide from power plants is used for enhanced recovery of oil. A new energy project outside of Stockholm is based on the integrated concept. The role of engineers is to have the technologies ready to meet social demand. In the energy area, it appears that technologists are ready with timely and environmentally attractive proposals to move to advanced fossil fuel systems and beyond.

136 THOAf4S H. I FE REFERENCES Adelman, M. An 1987. Are We Heading Towards Another Energy Gisis? Paper presented to Oil Polipy Seminar of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, Washington, D.C., September 29, 1987. Brooks, H. 1986. The typology of surprises in technology, institutions, and development. Pp. 325-350 in Sustainable Development of the Biosphere. W. C. Clark and R. E. Mann, eds. New Yorlc: Cambridge University Press. El-Masn, M. A. 1985. On thermodynamics of gas turbine cycles. ASME Transactions 107:g~89. Firor, J. 1988. Pp. 10~105 in Climatic Change, Vol. 12. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Grubler, A., and N. Nakicenovic. 1988. The dynamic evolution of methane technologies. Pp. 1~14 in gibe Urethane Age, T. H. Lee, H. R Linden, D. A. Dreyfus, and T. Vasko, eds. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Lee, T. H. 1988. Combined cycle systems: Technology and implications. Pp. 131-145 in The Methane Age, T. H. Lee, H. R. Linden, D. ~ Dreyfus, and T. Vasko, eds. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Lee, T. PI., and N. Nakicenov~c. 1988. Technology life~ycles and business decisions. International Journal of Technology Management 3(4):411~26. Lee, T. H., H. R. Linden, D. ~ Dreyfus, and T. Vasko, eds. 1988. The Methane Age. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Manne, A. S., L Schrattenholzer, A. N. Svoronos, and J. L. Rowley. 1985. International Energy Workshop 1985. Part I: Summary of Poll Responses. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Marchetti, C. 1985. When will hydrogen come? International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 10:215. Marchetti, C., and N. Nakicenovic. 1979. The dynamics of energy systems and the logistic substitution model. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Report RR-79-13. ~xenburg, Austria. Rogner, H.-H. 1988. Natural gas and technical change: Results of current gas studies. Pp. 61 84 in The Methane Age, 1: H. Lee, H. R. Linden, D. A. Dreyfus, and T. Vasko, eds. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Tabors, R D., and D. P. Flagg. 1986. Natural gas fired combined cycle generators: Dominant solutions in capacity planning. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems PWRS-1(2):122-127. Tilton, J. E. 1984. Matenal substitution: Lessons from the tin-using Industry. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Report RR 84-009. I~xenburg, Austria. Repnnted from Material Substitution: Lessons from the Tin-Using Industry, J. Tilton, ed. Washington, D.C: Resources for the Future, 19433. Tilton, J. E., and H. H. Landsberg. 1984. Nonfuel minerals. The fear of shortages and the search for policies. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Report RR 84 008. L~xenburg, Austria. Reprinted from U.S. Interests and Global Natural Resources: Energy, Minerals, Food, E. N. Castle and K ~ Price, eds. Washington, D.C.: Resources for the Future, 1983.

Technology and Environment 1989. Pp. 137-155. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. Protecting the Ozone Layer: A Perspective from Industry JOSEPH P. GLAS Protection of the ozone layer is a model of the way science, technology, and public polio y can work together to achieve global agreement and action. The progress to date is a result of three basic factors: a shared goal of protecting the environment, fundamental agreement on the science, and advances in technology to meet societal needs. ORIGINS OF CONCERN In the more than 15 years since chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were first implicated in possible ozone depletion, those industries producing and using CFCs have asserted that policy should be based on He best available scientific information.) As a company, Du Pont, the world's largest producer, has sought to support and pursue development of the science, to base its position on He best available science, and once established, to act aggressively on its position. Clearly, the attention paid to this issue over the past decade and a half is a product of science. Lovelock's invention in 1970 of the electron capture detector for gas chromatography first provided the capability of measuring CFCs in the atmosphere in parts per trillion. By revealing that This chapter is based on a talk given at the National Academy of Engineering Annual Meeting, September 29, 1988. It includes supporting information provided with the assistance of the Na- tional Academy of Engineering Program Office. 137

138 JOSEPH ~ GETS CFCs were accumulating in the atmosphere, Lovelock's measurements in the early 1970s indirectly provided the first evidence for possible concern about these compounds Forelock, 1971~. Du Pont's reaction to the information was to arrange a seminar on "The Ecology of Fluorocarbons" for the world's CFC producers. The year was 1972. The invitation from Raymond Me Carthy, then research director of Freon Products, previewed future industry responses: Fluorocarbons are intentionally or accidentally vented to the atmosphere world wide at a rate approaching one billion pounds per year. These compounds may be either accumulating in the atmosphere or returning to the surface, land or sea, in the pure form or as decomposition products. Under any of these alternatives, it is prudent that we investigate any effects which the compounds may produce on plants or animals now or in the future. As a result of that industry symposium, a research program was es- tablished to investigate the ultimate fate and impact of CFCs in the atmo- sphere. Nineteen companies formed the Chemical Manufacturers Associa- tion's (CMA) Fluorocarbon Program Panel, a group that has funded well over $20 million in research to date at academic and government facilities worldwide, including support of recent Antarctic expeditions. In 1974, about two years after the industry symposium and initiation of the enhanced research program, Molina and Rowland (1974) published an article proposing that the ultimate fate of CFCs was ultraviolet pho- todecomposition in the stratosphere with the release of chlorine atoms. Through a series of rapid chemical reactions, these chlorine atoms might cause a reduction in the total amount of stratospheric ozone Figure 1~. The concerns of these and other scientists led the industry group to redirect its research activities toward confirming or refuting the initial conclusion regarding stratospheric photolysis of CFCs and the possible impacts of that decomposition, including potential ozone depletion.2 Stratospheric science was in its infancy at the time. There was no reliable means of checking the validity of the ozone depletion theory. Led by government funding agencies, but with significant input from industry, scientists from government, academia, and industry undertook the enor- mous task of developing the scientific base, including a greatly expanded worldwide set of measurements, with the goal of predicting future ozone amounts. One of the results was the development of more realistic and comprehensive models which, by the early 1980s, were used by policymakers to study potential regulatory scenarios. Despite shortcomings in the amount and quality of data, the science of the late 1970s told us three things. First, the time scales involved are long for both the onset and the decay of any effects from CFCs (Figure 2~. Although available evidence indicated that there appeared to be sufficient time to perform research to reduce uncertainties, control measures would

PROTECTING THE OZONE LAYER Production O2 2(0 + Solar UV ( As 220 nm) +O2 ~ M 20 O3 + M) Net Destruction 139 3O2 2O3 X + O3 - XO + O2 O3 ~ Solar UV (A< 310nm) ~ O2 + O XO + O X + O2 Net 2O3 X = NO, OH, Cl, O2 3O2 FIGURE 1 Production and destruction of ozone. Ozone is produced and destroyed naturally at the rate of about 300 million tons per day. Production occurs primarily as the result of dissociation of molecular oxygen by absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation. Oxygen molecules can also combine with oxygen atoms to form ozone, if a suitable liquid or solid surface ~ is present. Ozone is destroyed by several natural catalytic cycled About 70 percent of the natural destruction is due to the nitrogen cycle. Chlorine is believed to be the principal agent upsetting the natural balance of ozone production and destruction. There is concern that increasing concentrations of CFCs could add enough chlorine to the atmosphere to increase the net destruction rate and decrease the net amount of ozone. SOURCE: Du Pont Company. probably be required well in advance of any identifiable damage to the biosphere. Second, the science involved is incredibly complex, with relevant new chemical reactions being discovered regularly, and in key respects is un- proven. Scientists, government, and industry were all mindful of attempts to predict stratospheric ozone destruction by nitrogen oxide emissions from supersonic transport planes (SSI§) in the early 1970s, and how results had shifted dramatically (Figure 3~. Third, the processes and effects are clearly global. Because any CECs entering We atmosphere would be mixed throughout the atmosphere rela- tively quickly, no individual geographic region had exclusive control over in own ozone layer. Moreover, CFCs were consumed in significant amounts in many nations and regions (Figure 4~. The quick conclusion was that if there were a problem, the entire world would have to act in near unison Du Pont's corporate environmental policy, formulated in the late 1930s,

140 - ?( JOSEPH ~ GETS _ it;? - 1 1 1 1 60 80 1 00 400 , 1 1 1 1 0 20 40 o ._ a) cry o .o a) cn E I / 420 440 460 480 500 ~ :~ I I I I D? l I I I I 0 20 40 60 80 ,, 100' 400 420 Time (years) 440 460 480 500 FIGURE 2 Implications of long atmospheric lifetime of CFCs. Both the emission rate and the concentration are plotted as arbitrarily chosen, linear scales. The concentration responds slower to change in the emission rate. SOURCE: Du Pont Company. commits Du Pont to "determine that each product can be made, used, handled and disposed of safely and consistent with appropriate safety, health and environmental quality criteria." In fact, in 1975, Chairman of the Board Irving Shapiro stated publicly that if there were credible scientific evidence of harm to human health or the environment, Du Pont would cease manufacture of fully halogenated CFCs. About once a year, dating back to the mid-l97Os, Du Pont formally reviewed its position. The question was always the same: On the basis of what we know from the science, what if any~ontrols are appropriate? Once the company's position on controls had been determined, consideration was given to Triplications for business strategies. ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY Inevitably, technology became a key aspect of the ozone issue. CFCs had been invented around 1930 as a safe alternative to ammonia and sulfur dionde for use in home refrigerators (see Friedlander, this volume). The intent was to eliminate the toxicity, flammability, and corrosion concerns

PROIECTING THE OZONE LAYER 141 of other chemicals by developing a stable chemical with the right thermo- dynamic properties. That effort was so successful that the new compounds were also quite easy to make and rather inexpensive. New applications for a safe class of chemicals with the properties of CFCs were plentiful and the market blossomed. Currently, virtually all refrigeration, commercial air conditioning, defense and communications electronics, medical devices, and high-efficiengy insulation use CFCs in some way. 4 2 o a) a) - _ _ _ -2 _ -4 a) C' a) I: ~ -12 C) a) -1 4 o O -16 -6 _ -8 -18 Ozone Increase ~ / - Ozone Dec~ease {| ,-N ,: Nitrogen \ Oxides I ~ _ I / Chlorofluorocarbons \ | -20 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 Year of Projection UNSURE 3 Long-term stratospheric ozone change projections from constant emission rates. Long-term projections of stratospheric ozone change, based on constant emission rates, provide an example of how complex, poorly understood processes can significantly affect the predictions of a mathematical model of man-made environmental changes. This graph shows stratospheric ozone change estimates from a series of models developed to predict the effects in the next century of steady-state emissions of both CFCs and nitrogen oxides from a hypothetical fleet of SSIt. Ike calculations were made over a number of years at Lawrence Liverwort National Laboratory. SOURCE: Schneider and Thompson (1985).

142 JOSEPH ~ GETS 1 . Europe and Africa 34% North America 35% - I'm Am. Japan 12% ".:. FIGURE 4 Approximate consumption of CF~ By country or region, 1988. Idtal world consumption was 2,510 million pounds. SOURCE: Du Pant Company estimates. Today, some 50 years after the development of CFCs, we have rede- fined "safe" to mean something not quite so stable-that is, not as stable in the atmosphere-which still retains the desirable properties afforded by stability during use. PRECAU IIONARY ACTIONS In the mid-197Os, despite limited scientific understanding and evidence, several environmental groups insisted that precautionary action be taken to control CECs. They focused attention on the so-called nonessential uses of CFCs, primarily aerosol propellants. Despite strong protests from industry, a few countnes, led by the United States, banned those uses in 1978. In my view, because this unilateral action was not based on unequivocal scientific guidance, the ultimate result was broader global inaction for almost 10 more years. Anticipating a potential need for substitutes if regulations were pro- mulgated, Du Pont initiated a large research effort in the mid-1970s to identify and, if possible, develop alternative chemicals to replace the fully halogenated CFCs. In 1980, after numerous candidates had been rejected as too tone, significantly more costly to manufacture, or not usable in their intended applications, Du Pont published its conclusions about the most promising candidates (Du Pont Company, 1980~.

PROTECTING THE OZONE LAYER 143 As long as the existing products were freely available, the new candi- dates, being less cost-effective, could never hope to compete unless some external factor drove market demand. Regulations that could create de- mand for alternatives were not forthcoming. Additionally, the U.S. ban on aerosols a segment that accounted for about 50 percent of the U.S. CFC market had forestalled CFC growth sufficiently so that additional controls seemed unwarranted and unlikely (Figure 5~. Although advances in science had led to numerous refinements model projections of future ozone levels, significant uncertainties remained in the early 1980s. At the same time, published analyses of atmospheric measurements indicated no persistent trend in total column ozone Able 1~. This supported the belief that there would not be significant changes in ozone in the near term. However, continuing uncertainties led to renewed interest in regulation of CFCs. Anticipating such action, in the mid-1980s CFC producers and users formed the Alliance for Responsible CFC Policy. The expressed purpose of the Alliance is to advocate that policies be based on the best science and that only a global approach to controls would be effective in protecting the ozone layer. In October 1980, reacting to model calculations that ozone depletion might reach 15-20 percent at the end of the next century, the Environmen- tal Protection Agency (EPA) published an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulema~ng (ANPR). The ANPR suggested the need for additional con- trols and an eventual phaseout of CFC production and use. Subsequent model results, combined with recognition of trends in atmospheric con- centrations of other trace gases, indicated that net changes in ozone, if any, were likely to be insignificant, provided there was no large growth in CFC production (National Research Council, 1982~. This again removed support for regulation. The ANPR was left open, with no decision by the EPA to either pursue or abandon it. After it became apparent that there would be no controls to drive demand for substitute products, Du Pont curtailed its R&D efforts on alternatives. INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS International attention had remained focused ore the ozone issue through the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) which, in 1977, organized the Coordinating Committee on the Ozone Layer, that met at least biennially and published a series of scientific assessments. Responding to the concerns expressed in those reports, in 1981 UNEP formed an ad hoc group to consider development of a global convention for protection of the ozone layer. After unsuccessful attempts to negotiate a convention that would include provisions aimed at control of CECs, the group abandoned

144 - / Aerosols 69% Blowing Agents 5%~ | Cleaning Agents 6% ~~ 1974 (2,025 million pounds) JOSEPH ~ GLAS PRODUCTION 3000 2500 In ° 2000 o E - c, o a, =3s 1 000 1 500 500 Total CFCs ~ A / / ~ ~ '//~ / / / O / / ~ / r Nonaerosols it' l I ~\ - \_ \ Aerosols 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 Year CONSUMPTION ~ :°.;. C'.,.o',':.,. ,C ,-;C i: o' . Refrigerants 30% '; I Other 2% Aerosols ~ Bowing Agent 28%/1 ~ ~J 1988 (2.510 million pounds) FIGURE 5 Worldwide production and consumption of CFCs Above, estimated worldwide total production of CFCs for both aerosol and nonaerosol use from 1960 to 1988, below, differences in consumption by application in 1774 and 1988. Although the United States banned the use of CFCh as aerosol propellants for most applications in 19~78, many countries did not SOURCE: Du Pant Company. that effort and proceeded with a framework convention calling for global cooperation on research, data collection, and technology exchange. The UNEP Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone ~ flyer was adopted in March 1985. The convention was designed so that protocols could be added requiring specific control measures. The group also outlined

PROTECTING THE OZONE LAYER TABLE 1 Trends in Total Ozone Change, as Reported in the Early 1980s Change Period (percent) Reference 197~1978 + 0.28 + 0.67 Reinsel et al. (1981) 197~1979 +15 + 05 St. John et al. (1982) 1970-1979 +0.1 ~ 055 Bloomfieldet al. (1983) 1979-1983 ~.003 + 1.12 per decade Reinselet al. (1984) (~.14 + 1.08) per decade with sunspot series in model SOURCE: World Meteorological Organization-National Aeronautics and Space Administration (1986~. 145 plans for a series of workshops to evaluate further the need for such controls and explore possible means of control that could find worldwide acceptance. Concurrent with these regulator discussions, a worldwide group of experts was engaged in a comprehensive review of the science. Completed in late 1985, the study concluded that there was no evidence of global ozone depletion and forecast no depletion based on limited growth in CFC usage (WMO-NASA, 19863. However, model calculations that assumed sustained growth in CFC emissions did predict depletion in ozone (see Figure 6~. Just as the study was being completed, British scientists uncovered the first evidence of significant but temporary changes in ozone over Antarctica (Farman et aL, 1985~. Despite the lack of consensus about causes of the so-called Antarctic hole, the observation of real change again focused world attention on the issue of CFCs and their effects on stratospheric ozone. RENEWED CONTROL EFFORTS AND INDUSTRY LEADERSHIP While progress was being achieved at the international level, in the United States the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) filed suit against the EPIC The NRDC claimed that by not following up the 1980 ANPR with a decision regarding future regulations, the EPA had failed to meet its obligations under the Clean Air Act. The suit was settled late in 1985 with the publication of EPA's Stratospheric Ozone Protection Plan, which called for a series of U.S. workshops to be held in conjunction with those planned by UNEP. They were to be followed by an EPA decision by May 1, 1987, and publication of a final rule, if needed, by November 1, 1987. Through this period, the pattern of CFC use by industry had begun to change. By the mid-1980s, the growth of refrigeration, cleaning agents, and foam insulation markets more than offset the decline of CFCs in aerosol

146 5 4 3 2 1 O a) -1 -2 -3 4 JOSEPH ~ ALAS NO ~,FCs ''I ~ I- ..-:: ----,-, ~ Constant CFC Production 5 ~ 1940 1960 1980 2000 39L/yr CFC Growth ~ 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year FIGURE 6 Calculated ozone change over time. The range of changes in total ozone calculated by the various modeling groups from the United States and Europe is shown for three assumptions for past and future consumption of CFCs. The top range shows calculated changes if CFCs were never emitted to the atmosphere. The middle shows calculated changes if historical CEC consumption rates are assumed through 1985 and constant consumption at the 1985 rate thereafter. The bottom range shows calculated changes if historical CFC consumption rates through 1985, with compounded growth of the consumption rate at 3 percent per year thereafter. Ozone amounts are calculated to increase in the top and middle ranges because of the effects of increasing amounts of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere. SOURCE: Data were assembled from a vanes of sources including WMO-NASA (1986~. markets in the United States and Canada (see Figure 5~. Furthermore, forecasts projected continued growth in demand, due in large part to the expectation that developing countries would want the services provided by CFCs. These growth forecasts, coupled with computer model predictions of ozone depletion if there were sustained growth in CFC emissions, once again increased concerns (see Figure 6~. With the body of information

PROTECTING THE OZONE LAYER 147 acquired over the previous decade, it became clear that, regardless of quantitative results, significantly increased emissions were likely to result in decreases in ozone. Based on this information, the worldwide CFC industry, led in September 1986 by Du Pont and the Alliance for Responsible CFC Policy, first advocated international efforts to limit long-term growth of CFC emissions. The new policy argued that controls should be global and should focus on net worldwide emissions to the stratosphere rather than on individual uses or countries. The failure of the 1978 U.S. aerosol ban to halt worldwide growth was cited as an example of the inability of such isolated actions to have lasting effects. It is difficult to say whether any specific factor led to Du Pont's 1986 policy change. Probably most influential was growing confidence in the models' ability to predict ozone depletion for growth scenarios, coupled with recognition that demand for CFCs was growing at a significant rate and would likely continue to grow if left alone. In 1986 Du Pont also reactivated research on chemical substitutes; the reasoning was that alternatives would eventually be needed, regardless of cost. A HISTORIC INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENT The announcements by U.S. industry in 1986 contributed significantly to productive international negotiations that began in December of that year. Du Pont was an active participant throughout, as was the Alliance for Responsible CFC Policy. With some initial reluctance, other leading CFC producers also offered their support for an international agreement. The basis for consensus was a shared goal of protecting the environment, commitment to active participation in efforts to advance scientific under- standing, and agreement that any regulations should be based on sound information. The growing industry support led negotiators to a productive discussion of the implications of different regulatory proposals. Although industry participated in the discussion of various control strategies, it pointed out that technical analyses had demonstrated only the need for limitations to growth in CEC emissions. Some environmental groups, on the other hand, insisted that if there were indeed any level of emissions that was unsafe, and that level could not be determined accurately, then the only appropriate action was elimination of all CFC emissions. The results of these developments were twofold. First, the search for a structure for the proposed regulations became a complex interplay of national economic interests seeking a straightforward yet equitable solution. Second, the stringency and timing of the regulations became a political struggle between supporters of aggressive controls, on one side, and those

148 JOSEPH ~ GETS who sought a more cautious approach, on the other. A sound scientific base indicating the need for some level of controls maintained the discussions. From the standpoint of industry, if the negotiators could develop regulations that CFC producers and users worldwide could meet without severe economic costs and safety risks, then the process would clearly advance. Much of industry had already accepted that there should be some kind of limit. This acceptance contributed to the development of the international process and helped government negotiators to focus on the issues necessary to gain a consensus. Ensuing negotiations in the late spring and early summer of 1987 led to signing of the Montreal Protocol in mid-September (UNEP, 1987~. It dealt with a broad range of considerations. This protocol had to determine a "safe" level of emissions. It had to be acceptable to developing countries, who were seeking the economic and societal benefits that CFCs had made possible for developed countries. Another important consideration was to maintain free-flowing international trade in what had become a truly global market. Most important, the protocol had to be a living document. There was a need for sufficient fle~bili~ to adjust the terms of the protocol in response to scientific, technological, and socioeconomic developments. Me box on page 149 summarizes the provisions of the Montreal Protocol.) As the negotiations were nearing completion, it became apparent to Du Pont and others that the need for alternative compounds would likely arise sooner than expected. The search began anew for ways to reduce the time needed for development. One clear need was a way to speed up initiation of the six to seven years of toxicity testing normally required for such high-volume chemicals. Du Pont contacted other producers who had publicly expressed interest in developing alternatives. A core group then identified the most promising products and concluded that a cooperative effort would generate the needed toxicity information most efficiently. An invitation was then extended to all other CFC-producing companies. By January 1988, the 14-member Panel for Alternative Fluorocarbon Toxicity Testing was formed and an aggressive five-year program was under way. CREDIBLE SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE The ink on the Montreal agreement (UNEP, 1987) was barely dry and the ratification process had just begun when, on March 15, 1988, NASAs Ozone [lends Panel (Watson et al., 1988) announced new findings that raised serious questions about whether the restrictions on CFC production and use contained in the protocol were adequate to protect stratospheric ozone. Figure 7 shows the 1987 Antarctic ozone "hole" that was the central motivating finding in the new assessment.

PROTECTING THE OZONE LAYER 149 The Montreal Protocol is designed to help reach international agreement on control of the production and consumption of certain chlorofluorocarbon and halon compounds. For developed countries, it calls for a freeze in CFC-11, 12, 113, 114, and 115 at 1986 consumption levels in mid-1989, with a 20 percent reduction from 1986 levels in mid-1993, and a 50 percent reduction by July 1, 1998. Halon-1211, 1301, and 2402 would be frozen at 1986 consumption levels in 1992, or three years after the protocol became effective. The Montreal Protocol required ratification by nations representing at least two-thirds of total world consumption of CFCs and haloes. The protocol entered into force on January 1, 1989. Montreal Protocol Participants Argentina Australia Austria *Belgium Burkina Faso *Byelo~ussian SSR *Canada Chile Congo *Denmark ·EEC *Egypt *Federal Republic of Germany *Finland *France Ghana *Grecoe Indonesia *Ireland Israel *Italy *Japan *Kenya *Luxembourg Maldives *Malta *Mexico Morocco *Netherlands *New Zealand *Nigeria *Norway Panama Philippines *Portugal Senegal *Singapore *Spain *Sweden *Switzerland Thailand Togo *Uganda *Ukrainian SSR *United Kingdom *United States *USSR Venezuela 9, 1989. *Ratified: 46 signatories, 31 ratifiers, January

150 JOSEPH ~ GETS within three days of the Ozone Mends Panel report, internal dis- cussions on the findings reached Du Pont's Executive Committee; after discussing the new findings win company scientists, the committee imme- diately decided to adopt a new position. Less than a week later, on March 24, Du Pont publicly announced its goal of an orderly transition to the phaseout of production of fully halogenated CFCs and the introduction of alternative chemicals and technologies as an essential part of the phaseout. The company also reiterated support for the Montreal agreement as the only effective means of addressing the issue on a global basis and called for a strengthening of the protocol to consider further global limitations on the emissions of CFCs. Since the announcement, CFC producers such as Penowalt Corpora- tion, Allied-Signal, and Imperial Chemical Industries, as well as the Alliance for Responsible CFC Policy, the Food Service and Packaging Institute, the American Refrigeration Institute, and several CFC users have either taken steps to reduce the use of CFCs or urged more stringent controls through the international process. Following the phaseout decision, Du Pont again reviewed the aggres- siveness of its alternative R&D efforts to ensure that every possible measure was being taken to accelerate the program. Greater financial risks were to be taken, but safety considerations were not to be compromised. As a result of this review, numerous additional initiatives have been undertaken especially in the area of applications development. Du Pont's goal is to phase out its production of CFCs as soon as possible. The target is to complete the phaseout not later than the end of the century. Six operations are dedicated to developing alternatives, including four pilot plants, a small-lot production facility, and a commercial- scale plant. In September 1988 Du Pont announced plans to invest more than $25 million in the world's first commercial-scale plant to produce HFC- 134a, the leading candidate to replace CFC-12 in the largest U.S. market segment refrigeration and air conditioning. This plant will be located in Corpus Christy Texas, and will have the capability to expand to a much larger-scale facility in the future. In 1988 Du Pont spent more than $30 million for process development, market research, applications testing, and small-lot production of CFC alternatives; it expects to spend more than $45 million for R&D in 1989. Our plan at Du Pont is to commercialize a series of new products during a three- to five-year period beginning in 1990. This schedule assumes favorable toxicology, process development and plant design, a favorable business climate, and reasonable financial risks. If problems arise in any aspect of the commercialization process, the schedule for new products will have to be reevaluated.

PROTECTING ITIE OZONE LAYER 35 30 25 20 _ a) a) E Y 15 _'--_ ~5 - ct 10 5 '. _ - 29 Aug 87 6 Oct 87 1 1 0 50 100 150 200 Ozone Partial Pressure (nanobars) 35 30 25 a, - a) ~ 20 ._ - 15 10 5 o _ --t _ ~ _ _ - 29 Aug 87 5 Nov 87 0 50 100 150 200 Ozone Partial Pressure (nanobars) 151 FIGURE 7 Vertical profiles of ozone using electrochemical ozonesondes from McMurdo Station in Antarctica, August-November 1987. The figures show the drop from Antarctic winter (August) to unusually low levels in Antarctic spring (October-November). By October the total ozone over Antarctica had been reduced by more than 50 percent of its 1979 value. Local depletion was as great as 95 percent at altitudes of 15-20 kilometem SOURCE: Watson (1989, p. 19).

152 JOSEPH ~ GETS Du Pont's programs will be inadequate in the long term without global application and cooperation. Du Pont and all other firms must continue to believe in and support the international process established with the Montreal Protocol, hoping that all nations can, in fact, work together to stengthen the protocol to achieve a timely global phaseout. Figure 8 shows the implications for CFC concentrations for a range of emission scenarios. In the United States alone, there is now more than $135 billion worth of installed equipment dependent on current CFC products. Virtually all of this equipment, some of it with a remaining useful lifetime of 20 to 40 years, could require replacement or modifications. For some industries, the impact of change will be even more dramatic. Entire industries could fold and, perhaps, be replaced by others. Whatever action is taken, and whenever it occurs, technology will continue to play a critical role. The rate of technological progress and the degree of risk are inextricably related. In the extreme, a ban on CFCs before alternative chemicals or technologies can be put into place would mean lapses in the distribution of blood, other medical supplies, and up to 75 percent of the U.S. food supply. It could also force shutdowns of many modern office buildings that require air conditioning, as well as many U.S. manufacturing operations. From a CFC standpoint, what action would appear to be most benefi- cial to the ozone layer? In the absence of scientific certainly, but based on the best available science, the prudent answer is a virtual phaseout of the suspect CFCs. Then the question is, What are the costs and risks associated with such a decision? If society is forced to choose a tone or flammable, but legally allowed, chemical for refrigeration as the only alternative available to prevent critical shortages, it will be committed to a known risk in the home and workplace rather than a less certain global risk. A final critical question deals with global concerns. What mechanism can be used to ensure that unified action is taken on a global scale? History has shown that less environmentally conscious governments are ready to let the United States take the more aggressive actions to enhance environ- mental protection. In today's world economy, competitive advantages are sought wherever they can be found. A simplistic policy approach based on the premise that "what is obvious to me must be best for everyone" is doomed to failure. CONCLUSION A lot has been learned about the science of stratospheric ozone in the nearly 20 years since Lovelock's early work in his basement laboratory. More important, through efforts to address the ozone depletion issue, we appear finally to have found a way to behave as a global community and

PROTECTING THE OZONE LAYER 4.0 - Q - a, 3.0 ._ o o o - ce a) c o 2.0 1.0 0.5 2.5 , _ ,//~. /~ 0.0 153 / . / / 1 ! 1980 2000 2020 2040 Year 2060 2080 2100 CFC Consumption 1989 1993 1998 - Freeze 20~)3 2100 -20% -50% A - B C -95% , ~ E F Freeze -20% -50% -20% -50% -95% -95% FIGURE 8 Effect of CFC reduction, showing total amount of calculated chlorine in the atmosphere from CFCs for several assumptions of future global use rates. There is very little difference between the two cases (A and B) in which CFC emissions are not decreased by more than the 50 percent reduction required by the Montreal Protocol. The effect of moving forward each reduction step by one control period is minimal (B). A reduction by 8~5 percent (C3 maintains the atmospheric levels of chlorine from CFC emissions at an almost constant level. Adding a 95 percent use-reduction step ~) to the protocol results in reductions in the contribution of chlorine from CFCs. Over the next century, it would decrease by 75 percent the chlorine that would be added to the atmosphere if the protocol is not modified. Accelerating the reductions (E) has a relatively small effect, in pan because other compounds contribute about 1.6 parts per billion (ppb) of chlorine to the atmosphere. A 95 percent reduction in 1989 ~ leads to chlorine decreases that begin almost immediately. However, such a reduction is not practical in view of the amount of CFCs required to meet basic societal needs, including refrigeration of food and medical supplies.

154 JOSEPH ~ GETS make a commitment to reduce the overall risks to society in the future. We have learned that it is possible to act quickly and forcefully by building on a common goal of protecting the environment and on fundamental agreement in science. The development of new technologies has provided what appear to be viable options for meeting societr's needs. Day's visible results are only the beginning of what will, I believe, become a major success story in environmental protection. industrial firms will continue to take a strong leadership role in helping to bring about a global solution to this global environmental issue- an issue that should be a prototype for dealing with other global issues such as the greenhouse effect NOTES 1. For reviews of scientific aspects of the ozone question, see Garfield (1988), National Research Council (1989), and Rowland (1989~. Concern for the protective ozone layer around the world stems from the fact that this layer, primarily 1~20 kilometem above the earth, screens out most of the biologically damaging ultraviolet radiation emitted by the sun Laugh, 19803. REFERENCES Bloomfield, P., G. Oehlert, M. In Thompson, and S. Zeger. 1983. A frequency domain analysis of trends in Dobson total ozone records. Journal of Geophysical Research 88:851~85Z2. Du Pont Company. 1980. Fluorocarbon/Ozone Update. Wilmington, Del.: E. I. du Pant de Nemours and Company. Barman, J. C, G. B. Gardiner, and J. D. Shanklin. 1985. Large losses of total ozone in Antarctica reveal seasonal Cl02/NO' interaction. Nature 315:207-210. Garfield, E. 1988. Ozone layer depletion: Its consequences, the causal debate, and international cooperation. Current Contents (6~:~13. Lovelock, J. E. 1971. Atmospheric fluorine compounds as indicators of air movements. Nature 230(April 9~:379. Maugh, T. H. 1980. Ozone depletion would have dire ejects. Science 207:390395. Molina, M., and F. S. Rowland. 1974. Stratospheric sink for chlorofluoromethanes: Chlorine atom catalyzed destruction of ozone. Nature 249:81(~12. National Research Council. 1982. Causes and Effects of Stratospheric Ozone Reduction: An Overview. Environmental Studies Board, Commission on Natural Resources. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. National Research Council. 1989. Ozone Depletion, Greenhouse Gases, and Climate Change. Washington, D.C: National Academy Press. Reinsel, G., G. C. Tiao, M. N. Wang, R. Lewis, and D. Nychka. 1981. Statistical analysis of stratospheric ozone data for the detection of trend. Atmospheric Environment 15:15601577. Reinsel, G., G. C. Tiao, J. L" DeLuisi, C. L Mateer, ~ J. Miller, and J. E. Frederick. 1984. Analysis of upper stratospheric Umkehr ozone profile data for trends and the effects of stratospheric aerosols. Journal of Geophysical Research 89:4833~840. Rowland, S. F. 1989. Chlorofluorocarbons and the depletion of stratospheric ozone. American Scientist 77(January-February):3045.

PROTECTING THE OZONE LAYER 155 Schneider, S. H., and S. L" Thompson. 1985. Future changes in the atmosphere. Pp. 397~30 in The Global Possible, R. Repetto, ed. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press St. John, D., W. H. Bailey, W. H. Fellner, J. M. Minor, and R. D. Sull. 1982. Time series analysis of stratospheric ozone. Commun. Stat., Part A 11: 129~1333. United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). September 16, 1987. Montreal Protocol on Substances lbat Deplete the Ozone Layer. Montreal: UNEP. Watson, R. T., M. J. Prather, and M. J. Kurylo. 1988. Present state of knowledge of the upper atmosphere 1988: An assessment report. NASA Reference Publication No. 1208. Washington, D.C.: National Aeronautics and Space Administration. World Meterological Organization-National Aeronautics and Space Administration (WMO- NASA). 1986. Atmospheric ozone 1985: Assessment of our understanding of the processes controlling its present distribution and Change. Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project, Report No. 16, 3 vols. Geneva: WMO.

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Technology and Environment is one of a series of publications designed to bring national attention to issues of the greatest importance in engineering and technology during the 25th year of the National Academy of Engineering.

A "paradox of technology" is that it can be both the source of environmental damage and our best hope for repairing such damage today and avoiding it in the future. Technology and Environment addresses this paradox and the blind spot it creates in our understanding of environmental crises. The book considers the proximate causes of environmental damage—machines, factories, cities, and so on—in a larger societal context, from which the will to devise and implement solutions must arise. It helps explain the depth and difficulty of such issues as global warming and hazardous wastes but also demonstrates the potential of technological innovation to have a constructive impact on the planet. With a range of data and examples, the authors cover such topics as the "industrial metabolism" of production and consumption, the environmental consequences of the information era, and design of environmentally compatible technologies.

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