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OCR for page 70
Technology and Environment 1989.
Pp. 7~91. Washington, DC:
National Academy Press.
Regularities in Technological
Development: An Environmental View
JESSE H. AUSUBEL
Forward, forward let us range;
Let the great world spin forever down
the ringing grooves of change.
Tennyson, "Locksl~y Hall," 1842
Accept for the moment that there are long-term regularities in techno-
log~cal development. Suppose that the evolution and use of both individual
technologies and entire technological systems are sometimes tightly con-
sistent and predictable over decades and generations. Then, we can know
with confidence some important sources of future stress on the environ-
ment and, equally, what technologically based stresses may fade, largely
through natural advancement of the industrial economy. The thesis of this
chapter is that, in fact, there are such long-term regularities in technolog-
ical development and that these deserve more attention for the important
implications they have for environmental concerns.
Let me draw you back a century to a forgotten episode of environmen-
tal history. The photographs in Figure 1 show the key material in terms of
bunk in the massive expansion of the railroads in the nineteenth century.
It is not widely remembered that railroads, usually associated in our minds
with coal and iron, were largely wooden systems in their early development.
The "iron horse" was something of a misnomer. Fuel for locomotives was
70
OCR for page 71
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72
JESSE H. AUSUBEL
wood, cars were wood, some of the rails were wood, trestles were wood
and most important, crossties were wood. About the turn of the century
President Theodore Roosevelt spoke as follows:
Unless the vast forests of the United States can be made ready to meet the vast
demands which this [economic] growth will inevitably bong, commercial disaster,
that means disaster to the whole country, is inevitable. The railroads must have
ties.... If the present rate of forest destruction is allowed to continue, with
nothing to offset it, a timber famine in the future is inevitable.
Speech to the American Forest Congress, 1905 (quoted in Olson, 1971, p. 1)
An industry leader in 1906 described the railroads as the "insatiable
juggernaut of the vegetable world" (Olson, 1971~. Such images were echoed
in Argentina, India, the Middle East, and parts of Europe as railway
networks were extended at the expense of local forests. In the United
States, prevention of destruction of forests was proposed through a range
of both supply and demand strategies. It was proposed to cover Kansas
with a catalpa forest dedicated to supplying crossties. Railroad companies
were asked to plant trees along the rail right-of-way to have a renewable
stock of timber for ties. Better management of remaining forests was seen
as urgent; in fact, the Forest Service was in large part built under Gifford
Pinchot in this era in response to the railroad-induced crisis.
What eventually contributed most to averting the forecast crisis were,
initially, creosote and other technologies for preserving crossties and, later,
especially in Europe, replacement of wood by concrete ties. As is evident
from Figure 2, around the time of the peak of the perceived crisis, a
technological solution was already penetrating the market for crossties.
Preservation technologies tripled the life of ties, and within a couple of
decades, the juggernaut of the vegetable world was satiated. In fact, in the
1920s the railroad network itself reached saturation (see Figure 5), so that
demand for both new and replacement ties decreased. Railroads today
are almost always described as environmentally benign. So, in the railroad
timber story, new technologies are both cause and cure of environmental
problems. The new transportation system placed intense demand on natural
resources, and innovations in turn alleviated the demand to the extent that
today the issue is obscure or forgotten.
At this point it is necessary to make a brief methodological comment.
A premise of this chapter is that, as suggested by Figures 3 and 4, sociotech-
nical systems, like biological systems, often grow according to basic patterns
well-described by S-shaped curves, in particular, logistic functions (Hamblin
et al., 1973; Lotka, 1956; Montroll and Goel, 1971; Volterra, 1927~. In the
simplest case, technologies, like biological organisms in constrained envi-
ronments, proceed through a life cycle of early development through rapid
growth and expansion to saturation or senescence. Often two technologies
are in competition for an "econiche," that is, the market; then a logistic
OCR for page 73
REGULARITIES IN TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
100
90
a, 80
a)
a)
~ 60
a)
._
~ 50
o
a) 4o
30
20
1890 1900 1910 1920
Year
73
If/
-
I ~I I
1930 1940 1950 1960
FIGURE 2 Percentage of crossties manufactured in the United States treated with
chemical preservatives. It is interesting to note that the innovation penetrated the market
in a characteristic S-shaped cunre, disturbed only temporarily by world war and depression.
SOURCE: After Olson (l97l).
substitution model applies where a new technology replaces the old and
the status of the system is described by the changing fraction or share of
the market held by the technologies (Fisher and Pry, 1971~. When more
than two technologies are competing for a market, a generalized version
of the logistic substitution model can be used (Marchetti and Nakicenovic,
1979; Nakicenovic, 1988, pp. 212-220. Logistic functions and logistic sub-
stitution models are a compact way of presenting data on the history of
technology and are used frequently in the following sections of this chapter.
However, numerous methods exist to explore quantitatively the existence
of patterns in sociotechnical phenomena (Montroll and Badger, 1974), and
the method used most frequently here should be taken simply as indicative
of the value of extending the search for regularities by using a variety of
methods.
Some examples make the case for long-term regularities and also point
out hazards in identifying them. Figure 5 shows the remarkably stable and
parallel growth of three major systems of transport infrastructure in the
United States: canals, railroads, and paved roads. For each of these trans-
port infrastructures it would apparently have been possible relatively early
in the life history of the system to make quite an accurate prediction about
its eventual size and scope. Such vision in turn may be translated into
conjectures about environmental problems and technological opportuni-
ties, indeed about technological necessity. For example, it could have been
OCR for page 74
74
JESSE H. AUSUBEL
CD
~ 300
a)
E
-
c
a)
_
A, 200
._
a)
I
100
J _
! I I I I I l I
0 7 1 4 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 84
Days
2
1o1
10
·1
10-2
fit = 7.5 weeks
I ~I
0 5 10 15
Weeks
0.90
-
0.50 ,,
0.10
FIGURE 3 Abe upper panel shows the growth of a sunflower, measured in height,
precisely charting a logistic curve (Reed and Holland, 1919~. The lower panel shows the
same data in linear transform, which is sometimes easier to employ for visual inspection
and emphasizes the predictability of the process once established. For example, the ultimate
height of about 260 centimeters could be estimated quickly with the linear transform. Ibe
"/\ t" refers to the time for the process to go from 10 to 90 percent completion, in this
case 7.5 weeks (see Lotka, 1956; Marchetti, 1983~.
OCR for page 75
REGULARTrlES 12V 1:E:CHNOL~OGICAL DEVELOPMENT
1o1
10°
10-'
10-2 / I
1870
.,
r
fit - 54 yr
f
1900 1930 1950
Year
75
FIGURE 4 Growth of the length of wire for the U.S. telegraph system. Notwithstanding
the battles involving Western Union and its predecessors and competitors, and all the
associated economic and regulatory issues, the telegraph system spread its branches just as
a sunflower plant grows. It is also interesting to note that the time the system required to
reach its full extent (/\ t) was slightly more than 50 yea rid SOURCE: Marchetti (l988).
100
80
60
a)
a'
CL 40
20
o
1 780 1800 1850 1900
Canals
J
o
J
Railways
as yr
of
-/ 1946
I 'fit, 1~1 1 1 ~ I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
-
-
Year
1 950 2000
FIGURE 5 Growth of major transport infrastructures in the United States in terms of
percentage of length of final saturation level. Both actual data and best-fit logistic curve
are shown. The midpoint of the growth process is also shown. SOURCE: Grubler (l988~.
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76
JESSE H. AUSUBEL
TABLE 1 Vehicular Pollution
Means of Emissions
Transport Pollutant (grams per mile)
Horses Waste, solidab 640
Waste, liquid 300
AutomobilesC
Hydrocarbons
CO
NOx
0.25
4.7
0.4
aCalculation based on an average production of 16 kg of
solid waste per day and a range of 25 miles per day.
b Calculation based on an average production of 75 kg of
liquid waste per day and a range of 25 miles per day.
C1980 U.S. piston engine standards.
clear early on that a rail system of predictable dimensions would be unsus-
tainable as a predominantly wooden technology and required innovations
in materials and other areas to reach forecast dimensions. Agendas for
research and for entrepreneurship might have stemmed from this analysis.
A similar argument can be made about the system of paved roads. This
system was initially designed for horses and horse-drawn vehicles, preceding
the widespread use of the automobile. From an environmental perspective,
a road system of the dimensions that began to be built could have been
catastrophic if the traffic were horses. Able 1, based on calculations made
by Montroll and Badger (1974), shows that, from an environmental point
of view, cars were a marvelous technological innovation, at least when they
were not much more numerous than horses.
Figure 6, showing the substitution of cars for horses, emphasizes
the continuity of the demand for personal transportation service and the
fact that technologies or modes compete to meet such demand. When
considering the intensity of problems of urban air pollution in places such
as Denver, Los Angeles, and Mexico Cigar, the time may be at hand when
an improvement almost as radical as that of substituting cars for horses is
needed to accommodate growth in transportation demand. It is sometimes
suggested that methanol fuel or electric cars will do the trick, but methanol
has few obvious advantages over gasoline used in conjunction with a catalytic
converter, and a versatile and wide-ranging electric car may not be available
for decades. Methane and hydrogen cars are already technologically feasible
and could meet stringent new environmental constraints, but they demand
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REGULARITIES IN TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
fog
101
- O _
1o-l ~
-2 ~/ 1 1
1 900
/
1910
Ho: At/
Year
1 920
77
/
0.99
0.90 Cal
c
to
0.70 <5
0.50 LL
_ 0.10
0.01
1 930
FIGURE 6 Replacement of homes by automobiles in the United States. Irregular lines
are historical data; smooth lines are best fit and extrapolation. SOURCE: Nakicenov~c
(1988~.
emergence of a substantial infrastructure of supporting service that so far
is not evident. Will a breakthrough come and, if so, when?
The abrupt replacement of horses by cars shows one of the short-
comings of the type of framework presented here, namely, the difficulty of
anticipating system bifurcations and fluctuations. Although the growth of
overall demand for transportation as represented by horses or cars between
1900 and 1930 appears consistent in Figure 6, within 2~30 years a radical
change occurred in the way that demand was met. Diesel technologies
conquered steam with equal rapidity, and jets replaced propeller aircraft
in about the same time. Could the timing of the introduction of such new
technologies have been foreseen on the basis of a sound and transferable
logic? How many in policy positions in government or industry would
have believed that transformations of the transport system could occur
so rapidly? Many might have recognized in 1900 that the horse-powered
system was environmentally unsustainable and foreseen the concomitant
need for technological solutions. I suspect that these solutions would more
commonly have been believed to be incremental, for example, the breeding
of horses that would be more powerful for their size (more fuel efficient)
or somehow generate less waste.
It is also interesting to note long-term regularities within the auto-
mobile system, where technologies specifically employed for environmental
improvement have followed Apical patterns of substitution and diffusion.
Figure 7 shows the adoption of emission-reducing technologies and then
OCR for page 78
78 JESSE H. AUSUBEL
2 _ ~ 0.99
Emission Catalyst /
1o1
10°
10- ~ _
1 o-2 ,, 1 1 1 1 L/ 1 1 - ~1 1 1
1960 1 970
-1
No Con
0.90
-
0.50 _
IL
_
_ 0.10
0.01
1 990
1 980
Year
FIGURE 7 Substitution of emission controls in the U.S. vehicle fleet. The category "emis-
sion" refers to crankcase, exhaust, and fuel evaporation controls SOURCE: Nakicenovic
(1985~.
catalytic converters. Identification of historically characteristic rates of such
substitutions might help in setting feasible targets for future fleet improve-
ments.
More examples of the implications of long-term regularities in tech-
nology for environment are found in examination of the transport system
in its entirety (see Figure 8~. If the road system is considered, it seems
clear from Figure 8 (and Figure 5) that the challenge over the next many
decades is maintenance and repair of a large, mature system. The road
system is in fact fully grown and decreasing as a proportion of the length
of the total transport system. However, we just seem to be coming to grips
with environmentally sound operation and maintenance of the system that
has been built. For example, with current practices and technology, the
amounts of salts (close to 400 pounds per capita in the United States in
1980; Hibbard, 1986) and other chemicals that might be used for the next
50 or 100 years to keep the system ice-free are staggering. Their accumula-
tions almost certainly pose worrisome problems for soils and water. Under
the auspices of the Strategic Highway Research Program of the National
Research Council (1988), technological alternatives are beginning to be
explored. Accumulations of chemicals connected either with fuels that will
wash off the roads or with the wearing out of tires (see Ayres, this volume)
might be another issue that is now being underestimated.
Conjectures can also be offered about pressures on environment from
the air transport sector. Since concerns faded in the early 1970s about
OCR for page 79
REGUIARITIES TV TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
1o2
1ol
10°
10-1
\ ~
Canals \
__,
10-2
1 800
1850 1900 1950
Year
\ /Railways\
/~
/
/
At,
on
fairways
2000 2050
79
0.99
0.90
0.70
0.50 °
0.30
0.10
0.01
FIGURE 8 Shares of total operated intercity route mileage of competing transport
infrastructures. SOURCE: Nakicenovic (1988~.
stratospheric effects of fleets of supersonic transport planes (SSI§), little
attention has been paid to environmental aspects of aviation. Noting
the tremendous growth projected for the air transport system, one may
wonder if concerns lie ahead, either in the stratosphere with a large fleet
of second-generation SSTs or perhaps in a more straightforward manner
in the troposphere. Could tropospheric ozone be significantly enhanced
if growing emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO=) by aircraft are considered?
Changes might be looked for in the main travel altitude region near 10
kilometers, especially in the northern hemisphere where most air traffic
occurs (Bruehl and Crutzen, 1988~.
The long-term regularities identifiable in adoption of transportation
technologies are paralleled in the closely related energy sector. 1b a
considerable extent, the history of environmental and safety issues is simply
the underside of the history of energy development (and agriculture). On
an urban scale, 700 years of this history are recounted in The Big Smoke
(Brimblecombe, 1987), which chronicles London air pollution since the
Middle Ages and describes how improvements in technologies for burning
wood and coal and for ventilation helped population density to increase
and morbidity to decline.
In energy, as in transport, what is most striking is the overall consistency
and stability of the evolution of the technologies favored, as illustrated in
Figure 9, which shows consumption of hydrocarbon fuels wood, coal, oil,
OCR for page 80
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80
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OCR for page 82
82
JESSE H. AUSUBEL
1o2
1o1
loo
10-1
10-2
0.99
. ~
_'
H/C = 4 /
~l Nonfossil
Of Wood H/C = 0.1
Coal H/C = 1
Oii H/C = 2
Gas H/C = 4
0.10
1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
0.90
I
+
-
I
0.50 11
o
._
co
IL
FIGURE It Evolution of the ratio of hydrogen ~ to carbon (C) in the world fuel mix.
Ibe figure for wood refers to dry wood suitable for energy production. If the progression
is to continue beyond methane, production of large amounts of hydrogen fuel without fossil
energy is required (see Marchetti, l985~.
several conjectures are worthwhile. One is that it may be possible to match
each pulse with a dominant energy supply technology, coal in the first
case and oil in the second. During each pulse of growth, this form of
energy supply may reach environmental constraints (and other constraints
as well) that limit the overall growth of the energy system. In other words,
a characteristic density may be all that is achievable or socially tolerable for
each form of energy within the context of a larger industrial paradigm in
which that form of energy dominates. ~ accommodate a further increase
in per capita energy consumption, a society must shift each time to a form
of primary energy that is not only economically sound, but also cleaner and
in some ways more efficient, especially in terms of transport and storage.
At a high hierarchical level, the pycle-adjusted view suggests that there
are periods when the main orientation of the system is not so much growth
as consolidation, with strong emphasis on squeezing more efficiency out
of the system (a collection of technologies). At other times, the system
seelo; to expand rapidly and relies on introduction and diffusion of new
technologies that may be "inefficient" when introduced.
OCR for page 83
REGUL4R=IES IN TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
1o2
10
10°
10-1 _
10-2 _
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950
Coal Pulse
0.3~1.0
tce/cap Jim
it
/~1R99
Pulse /
0.8~2.3
tce/cap .;
fit
~ 1965
~·/
/Qt = 44yr /^t= 40yr
, _
/1 1
/
Gas Pulse
2.0~6.0 ,'
tce/cap ,'
,,'1
,'~ 2030
,'^ t = 45 yr
~l I
-
-
1975 2000 2025 2050
Year
83
0.99
0 90 ~
o
._
i_
0.50
LL
0.10
FIGURE 12 Growth pulses in world per capita energy consumption measured in tons of
coal equivalent (tee). If historical discontinuities in per capita energy consumption persist,
a new pulse of growth in world energy use would be expected to take off about the year
2000, which would triple per capita energy consumption from today's average world level
of about 2 lee to about 6 lee (roughly half the current U.S. level). SOURCE: Ausubel et
al. (1988~.
It appears that we are nearing the trough of a demand cycle now. If
strong demand for energy growth does not resume for another 7-10 years, as
implied by the long-wave perspective, then improved energy efficiency looks
like the most important near-term energy strategy, along with preparing the
way for natural gas to accommodate another growth pulse (see Lee. this
volume). This perspective also implies that the United States and other
industrialized countnes, almost all of which have sufficient capacibr for
electricity generation and other energy carriers in the near term, will face
before the turn of the century a potential leap in energy consumption, not
the steady state or low-growth world that many environmental advocates
would like to see persist. ~ meet renewed rapid growth in demand in
an environmentally sound way, gas must almost inevitably take the leading
role, probably supported in particular niches by nuclear power.
It is useful to ask whether energy efficiency is always consonant with
environmental improvement. At the level of particular functions such as
lighting or refrigeration, it is clear that many engineering systems, indeed
probably many biological systems, tend to follow steady trajectories over
long periods of time toward higher efficiency (Figure 13~. In most cases
it may be supposed that increasing energy efficiency will also be environ-
mentally beneficial A counterexample is electricity. Its use is less efficient
than more direct use of alternatives such as natural gas, oil, and even coal
and yet is often environmentally preferred. Another counterexample, the
lean-burn (Otto-pycle) engine, produces less carbon monoxide but much
more NOR than a less efficient engine with a catalytic converter, which
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84
JESSE H. AUSUBEL
10°
10-1
Watt
INewcomen ,
Saverv I
10-2
10-3 ~
1700 1800 1900 2000
Triple Parsons
Expansion 1 :.] Fluorescent
li a'
/~ HT Steam
~Turbine
Cornish
Tungsten ~` /
filament / /
,~~ ~ Prime Movers Cellulose ~ /.
t 1 - 50% = 300 yr Filament:/
Edison's ,7
First Lamp/
/:-
Paraffin / ~ t 1 - 50% = 80 yr
Candle /
Mercury
Sodium// / Lamp
Lamp
Lamp / /~ Ammonia Production |
At 1 - 50% = 70 yr
-
Lamps
Year
50
to
ce
1 .0
0.1
FIGURE 13 Examples of increasing energy efficiency. Prime movers, lamps, and ammonia
production are measured as machines or processes for energy transformation according to
the second law of thermodynamics. Onginal analyses are by 1~ M. Slesser, University of
Strathclyde, Scotland. SOURCE: Marchetti (1983~.
is currently more environmentally attractive at the cost of efficiency. A1-
though the overall long-term evolution of energy systems appears to be in
the direction of both efficiency and environmental compatibility, at vari-
ous levels and times the system may not be optimizing for both of these
objectives or they may be in conflict.
From transportation and energy, let us turn to materials, which figure
prominently in the chapters by Herman et al. and by Ayres in this volume.
Simple extrapolations of the kind used above have often been troublesome
and unsuccessful as aids in projecting consumption of materials. As shown
in Figure 14, past projections of demand for certain key materials remind
us why studies such as those of Meadows et aL (1972) in the early 1970s
foresaw extremely severe problems of both exhaustion of mineral resources
and pollution associated with mineral use.
What happened to create the gap between the extrapolated trends
and realibr? Systems prove to be bounded in a varieW of ways, so that
exponential growth does not persist indefinitely. In the case of materials,
several factors have been at work, including economic growth rates, shifts in
the composition of economies from manufacturing to services, and resource-
saving technologies. But most important may be smart engineering that
made feasible the substitution of plastics, composites, ceramics, and optical
OCR for page 85
REGULARITIES TV TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
40C
30
20
10
0~
1950 1960
800
600
Year
Steel
Aluminum
Projected ,,
I i
1970 1 980
Projected'
~~M
o
1955 19601970 1980
Year
10
Zinc
Projected Hi'
1960 1970 1980
Year
85
0.8
10
8
6
4
2
o
1950 1 960
.2
Copper
Projected ''
Actual
1970 1 980
Year
Nickel
Projected ''
0.0 _
1950 1960 1970 1980
Year
FIGURE 14 Actual materials consumption for five metals, 195~1985, and projections
made in 1970 for 197~1985. SOURCE: Tilton (1987~.
materials for metals, that is, the continuing replacement of metals with
nonmetals and the associated overall decrease in metal needs.
The telecommunications sector provides a vivid example (Figure 15~.
In 1955, telecommunications cables were made almost entirely of copper,
steel, and lead. By 1984, close to 40 percent of the materials used were
plastics. If substitution of lead by polyethylene for cable sheathing had not
taken place, consumption of lead by AT&T alone might have reached a
billion pounds per year, an amount to create considerable anxiety from the
point of view of environment, given the toxic properties of lead. Herman
et al. (this volume) have examined the possible "dematerialization" of the
.,
OCR for page 86
86
JESSE H. AUSUBEL
automobile. In considerable part, the phenomenon again has to do with
the substitution of plastics for metals, as implied by Figure 16.
Overall, there appears to be a decreasing dependence on common
metals, perhaps combined with greater need for less common metals (Hib-
bard, 1986~. There is also growing use of metals in the form of composites,
coatings, films, and artificial structures. As Ayres (this volume) suggests,
use of metals in such areas as electronics may dissipate more broadly and
rapidly because many of the uses are highly dispersed and thus also entail
greater complexity in recycling.
The difficulty is that good data are not readily available, and may
not exist, to back up such generalizations firmly. In 1976 Goeller and
Weinberg sought to develop baseline information for what they termed the
"age of substitutability." One of the notions they introduced was that of
"demandite," the average nonrenewable resource used by human society.
They defined demandite by taking the total extraction in moles of elements
such as copper and iron and selected compounds (e.g., hydrocarbons) and
computing the average hypothetical chemical composition of one demandite
molecule (or average mole percent composition). Goeller and Weinberg
excluded renewable resources, such as agricultural products, wood, and
water, from demandite but looked at them in another portion of their
study.
Able 2 shows the result for the United States and for the world, for
1968, the most current year for which Goeller and Weinberg were able to
perform the calculation in the mid-1970s. The dominance of hydrocarbon is
spiking. It is interesting that in 1968 the United States had a more favorable
hydrogen-to-carbon ratio than the world as a whole, partly offsetting from
an environmental perspective the fact that U.S. energy consumption is so
high. Broadly speaking, the need is apparent for developing and applying
concepts like "demandite" on a regular basis. With steady monitoring, such
approaches might serve as indicators that would alert us to substitution
processes, improving projections and reducing the likelihood of the kind of
erroneous projections shown in Figure 14.
At a specific level, it is evident that, just as some environmental
concerns about metals use may be decreasing, more attention must be
given to plastics and paper, as also argued by Herman et al. (this volume)
and Ayres (this volume). Although according to one estimate per capita
use of materials in the United States remained constant between 1974 and
1985 at about 20,000 pounds per year, use of paper increased by about 25
percent to about 650 pounds, and use of plastics increased by about 40
percent to 180 pounds (Hibbard, 1986~. The latter figure is an obvious and
essential part of the explanation for the recent widely reported concerns
about the deterioration of environmental quality at beaches in the United
States and Europe (see Lynn, this volume).
OCR for page 87
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OCR for page 88
88
JESSE H. AUSUBEL
10
-
~8
a)
a) 6
-
._
-
a)
a)
4
2
o
O Ward's Data (U.S. Fleet) , ' -
· Ford Fleet f
it,
o
~ ,
O O I 1
1 1
Projected
1960 1970 1980 1990
Model Year
FIGURE 16 mends in plastics content of U.S. passenger cars. Included is increased use
of plastics in bumped, fuel tanks, air cleaners, and wheel covers, but not in body panels,
for which construction in plastic is also increasingly feasible. SOURCE: Gjostein (1986~.
In the search for advanced materials, we may be creating materials
that are virtually immortal. One wonders, for example, whether the new
marvelously strong materials increasingly popular for heavy-duty envelopes
are as readily recycled or biodegradable as old-fashioned paper. From
an environmental point of view, electronic memory would indeed be a
sought-after substitution for paper as a medium for storing information, if
it could be made long-lived and reliably reproducible. Also attractive is the
notion of replacing packaging itself; food irradiation, for example, may be
environmentally desirable if it can significantly reduce the required volume
of packaging materials.
1b summarize, there is intriguing evidence of long-term regularities in
the evolution, diffusion, and substitution of technologies. Understanding
these regularities is of value for both environmental research and man-
agement. From numerous illustrations available in transport, energy, and
materials it is evident that there is need to increase scrutiny of environ-
mental problems and opportunities associated with growth of air transport;
increasing reliance on natural gas; and disposal of plastics. Clear possibili-
ties exist for the development of illuminating indicators, such as trends in
the hydrogen-to carbon ratio and the composition of demandite, connected
to technologies and resources that would be valuable in our diagnoses
OCR for page 89
REGUI~UTIES IN TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
TABLE 2 Average Nonrenewable Resources Used by Man in
1968, ~Demandite~
Atomic Percent
Resource
United States World
CH 2.14 80.22 -
CH 1.71 ~ 66.60
SiO 2 11.15 21.17
CaCO3 453 8.1S
Fe 1.10 1.45
N 0.76 0.68
O 053 0.4S
Na 053 0.45
C1 053 0.45
S 0.23 0.23
P 0.08 0.07
K 0.07 0.07
A 0.11 0.07
Cu. Zn,Pb 0.04 0.04
Mg 0.04 0.04
X 0.08 0.08
NOTE: Here, X represents all other chemical elements:
highest in order of demand are Mn, Ba, Cr. F. Ti, Ni,
Ar, Sn, B. Br, Zr, others account for less than 100,000
tons per year worldwide or less than 30,000 tons per
year in the United States. The term CH refers to the
combination of coal, oil, and natural gas, which are all
made up of carbon and hydrogen in different ratios. The
subscript refers to the average hydrogen-to carbon
ratio.
SOURCE: After Goeller and Weinberg (1976~.
89
and prognoses of environmental quality. We should not underestimate our
technological ingenuity with respect to the environment nor the enormous
dimensions of the systems requiring successful application of that ingenuity.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
I would like to thank William Clark Robert Frosch, Arnulf Grubler,
Nebojsa Nakicenovic, and Stephen Schneider for sharing many ideas that
led to this paper and Hedy Sladovich for research assistance.
OCR for page 90
OCR for page 92
Representative terms from entire chapter:
logistic substitution
9o
JESSE H. AUSUBEL
NOTE
1. Mathematically, a logistic function may be denoted by x/(tc -x) = exp(
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91
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