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T E C H N O L O G Y A N D ENVIRONMENT Jesse H. Ausube] and Hedy E. Sladov~ch Editors National Academy of Engineering NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1989

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National Academy Press . 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. . Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The National Academy of Engineenng was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel or- ga~tion of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government Lee Na- tional Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and rec- ognizes the superior achievement of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. As publication has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a National Academy of Engineering report review process. Inclusion of signed work in this publication signifies that it is judged a competent and useful contribution worthy of public consideration, but it does not imply endorsement of conclusions or recom- mendations by the National Academy of Engmee~g. The interpretations and conclusions expressed in this volume are those of the authors and are not presented as the views of the council, officers, or staff of the Academy. Funds for the activity that led to this publication were provided by the Academy's Technology Agenda Program. i. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Technology and environment / Jesse H. Ausubel and Hedy E. Sladovich, editors. p. cm. "National Academy of Engineering." Bibliography: p. Includes index ISBN 309-0442X 1. Environmental engineering-Technological innovations. 2. Environmental protection. I. Ausubel, Jesse H. II. Slado~qch, Hedy E. III. National Academy of Engineering. TD153. T43 1989 89-12674 62~c20 CIP Cover. Susan Bee, Landscape wah Mangles, oil on canvas. Courtesy of the artist. Copyright ~ 1989 by the National Academy of Sciences Printed in the United States of America First Printing, January 1990 Second Pnniing, July 1991 Third Printing, December 1993

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Advisory Committee on Technology and Society* ROBERT M. WHITE, chairman, National Academy of Engineering RUITIERFORD ARIS, University of Minnesota DAVID P. BILLINGTON, Princeton University HARVEY BROOKS, Harvard University DONALD N. FREY, Northwestern University JOHN H. GIBBONS, Office of Technology Assessment MARY L. GOOD, Allied-Signal, Inc. HENRY R. LINDEN, Gas Research Institute GERALD NADLER, University of Southern California JAMES BRIAN QUINN, Dartmouth College WALTER ~ ROSENBLITH, Massachusetts Institute of Technology WALTER G. VINCENTI, Stanford University ALVIN M. WEINBERG, Oak Ridge Associated Universities *Membership as of June 1989. .. 111

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Preface It is more evident than ever before that global, regional, and local environmental deterioration is affecting the habitability of the planet and, as a result, societal well-being, the working of the national and global economy, and political interactions among nations. It is also evident that although the management and use of technology have contributed to the present environmental situation, the applications of engineering and technology can provide solutions to many environmental problems. Over the past two decades, concerns have intensified about the decrease of stratospheric ozone, projected climate warming, effects of acid rain, pollution of coastal regions, accumulation of trace pollutants in the biosphere, and increasing difficulties in disposal of nuclear and hazardous wastes. We are now at the point where balancing economic growth and environmental practices makes it ever more urgent to design and apply environmentally innovative . . eng~neenng. This volume is an initial contribution in what I hope will be a se- ries of contributions by the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) on the theme of technological innovation and environmental quality. It ex- amines the conceptual framework for thinking about technology and the environment and suggests directions for the education and practice of en- vironmentally responsive engineering. Several major themes emerge from the volume. One is the increasingly complex and important interactions between global markets and the environment. Issues such as chloroDuoro- carbon emissions and ozone depletion, fossil fuel use and the greenhouse effect, hazardous waste disposal, and contamination of water resources are v

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V1 PREFACE

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PREFACE Hi and this gap is at the root of today's environmental crisis.... Environ- mental engineering, recognizing our own nature as part of nature and our technology as in nature, can help bridge the dangerous compartmentaliza- tion of knowledge and professions that appears to be placing modern life in jeopardy." ROBERT M. WHITE President National Academy of Engineenng

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Contents Technology and Environment: An Overview.............. Jesse H. Ausubel, Robert ~ Frosch, and Robert Herman 1. FRAMEWORKS FOR ANALYSIS Industrial Metabolism. Robert U Lyres Dematenalization . Robert Herman, Siamak A. Ardekani and Jesse H. Ausubel Regularities in Technological Development: An Environmental View Jesse H. Ausubel . . . .. 2. THE PROMISE OF TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS Meeting the Near-Term Challenge for Power Plants. . . Richard E. Bakhzser Advanced Fossil Fuel Systems and Beyond ..................... Thomas H. Lee Protecting the Ozone Layer: A Perspective from Industry. Joseph ~ Glas 1X ...... 23 ..... 50 . . .70 ......... 95 ...... 114 .. .. ... .. ...137

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x 3. SOCIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL ASPECIS The Rise and Fall of Environmental Expertise..... Acting J. Tschinkel Environmental Issues: Implications for Engineering Design and Education............................................. Sheldon K. Fnedlander Engineering Our Way Out of Endless Enviornmental Crises Walter R. Lynn The Paradox of Technological Development Paul E. Gray Contributors Index ...... CONTENTS l 159 . . .167 182 . 192 . 205 . .211