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- Appendix H
Working Group 4: Nearshore Forecasting
WILLIAM G. GORDON, New Jersey Marine Sciences Consortium,
Leader
PAUL H. GLAIBER, Great Lakes Dredge and Dock Company
GARY L" GRIDLEY, Conoco, Inc.
WARREN W. HADER, Montauk Fishermen's Association
WALTER KRISTIANSEN, Amoco Transportation Company
KATHLEEN ~ MILLER, National Center for Atmospheric Research
STEPHEN K RINARD, National Weather Service Southern Region,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
CHARLES L. VINCENT, Coastal Engineering Research Center
Today more than ever, U.S. citizens depend on the coastal area to
support a variety of economic activities. In the near future 75 percent
of the U.S. population will live within 50 miles of a coastline. Increasing
users of the area expect and will need timely observations and forecasts
of weather, oceanic, Great Lakes, and river phenomena, such as weather,
wind, waves, ice and icing conditions, temperature, current, and nearshore
processes. Benefits will accrue in safety, economic efficiencies, and rational
development This report of Working Group 4 defines the range of user
groups, establishes their needs for information, reviews present capabilities,
and suggests areas for improvement of near-term and future operation and
research to satisfy each need. For the purpose of this workshop, nearshore
includes tidal to 200 nautical miles (nmi) offshore, the Great Lakes, and
other inland waterways.
Coastal waters, with their complex water, land, and air interactions,
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provide most of-our fishery resources. The relatively shallow areas of the
marine complex contain energy resources important for the U.S. economy.
Increasingly the same areas are used for direct disposal of a variety of
unwanted materials. A wide variety of large oceangoing craft, (military and
civilian), commercial and recreational fishing vessels, and recreational craft
numbering into the millions transit or depend exclusively on these areas.
The national economic use of this coastal area requires short- and long-
term forecasts of weather and oceanic conditions to assist in protecting such
areas from unwanted abuse and destruction, for safe conduct of activities,
and for rational development.
PRESENT MARINE WEATHER SERVICE
The majority of nearshore mariners receive weather information from
various sources. Most recreational boaters for example obtain weather
information from commercial radio and television stations or from the
Weather Radio of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA). These offer good service for those operating at short distances
onshore. A common complaint about NOAA Weather Radio is that of
limited range (line of sight for very high frequency [VHF]~. Commercial
radio and television offers land coverage, but frequently such coverage is
inappropriate over water because it does not take into consideration the
substantial variation that can occur over water.
Weatherfax machines on board vessels allow for the receipt of many
different types of weather and oceanographic maps, but few recreational
craft and only the larger commercial fishing vessels are equipped with
them. Radio facsimile broadcasts are directed to the high seas and are
often poorly received nearshore due to skip of the: signal Satellite images
of oceanographic features (e.g., warm-core rings, eddies, temperature, and
current boundaries) are used to evaluate prime fishing areas. As an exam-
ple, satellite pictures of the Gulf Stream, depicting temperature boundaries
and eddies, are routinely used by fishermen in locating swordfish and other
large pelagic species.
Coast Guard radio also services such craft with notice to mariners and
relays National Weather Service (NWS) advice on weather and wave con-
ditions. Larger oceangoing craft depend to a greater extent on commercial
services and ocean conditions.
CURRENT MARINE OBSERVATIONS
At the national level, observations on marine weather and oceanic
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conditions are collected by the NWS of NOAA These include buoys, C-
Man, Volunteer Ship Observations (VOS) program and the Marine Reports
Network (MAREPS).
The buoy program is managed by the National Data Buoy Offlce
(NDBO). The buoys measure basic meteorological factors such as And,
temperature (air and sea), pressure, and waves. These buoys report once
an hour into NWS communications via a GOES satellite. They are located
at 54 coastal and high-seas sites. The main advantage is that they are
obtaining over-the-water accurate and reliable data and provide good time
series and climate data. Some buoys report spectral information, and a few
of those also report wave direction.
C-Man, or the Coastal observation network, is operated by the NDBO
in a similar fashion as the buoys, except this system does not normally
observe waves. Most sites have vely good marine exposure but are repre-
sentative of a coastal location and are not over the water such as the buoy
system.
Through VOS, offshore ship operators reports are sent via CW to
land-based radio stations (Coast Guard and commercial) and then into
NWS. More modern methods also employ satellite communications. Most
observations are subjective (except pressure). This forms the basis of all
high-seas observations.
The marine environment is a data environment very few observations
are available over broad ocean areas. The MARlEP network uses marinas,
Sea Grant, and ham and contract radio operators to collect uncoded marine
observations from small boats on position, wind, seas, visibility, and weather.
These observations are in turn relayed to NWS marine forecasts offices.
Such observations assist the marine forecasting and verification programs
with the result being more accurate forecasts and warnings and a safer
marine environment. A more immediate user payback is the anticipation
of direct user input into the forecasting program and the ability to obtain
the latest marine forecast and warning through the MARK P operator.
Observations from the above as well as from satellite and land-based
sources are utilized to develop the present array of marine weather and
ocean condition forecasts.
MARINE NEARSHORE USERS
A variety of users need and use nearshore ocean and weather observa-
tions and forecasts. All users make use of marine and general forecasts in
their day-to-day activities; during critical weather periods this use increases.
Such users are identified in Able H-1, along with needs, frequency of need,
and potential areas for improvement.
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TABLE H-1 Nearshore Forecasting Users, Needs, and Improvements
. . . _
Frequency Needs
User Needs of Needs Improvement
Commercial fishemnen Wind, wore temp., 6 hours More site
tides specific
Recreational fishermen Wind, wave, weather 6 hours More site
specific
Recreational boaters Wind, wave, weather 6 hours More site
specific
Beach goere Wind, wave, weather, 12 hours More site
Tide specific
Coastal construction Wind, ware, weather 12 hours More site
tide specific
Tug and barge Wind, weather, tide 6 hours Increased
reliability
Marine enforcement Wind, wave, weather 6 hours Increased
reliability
Oil & gas development Wind, weather
Disaster preparedness Wind, weather
12-24 hours Increased
reliability
12-24 hours Increased
reliability
~ . . .
~ precision
Distant water merchant Wind, ware, tide 6 hours Very site
. _ ,
specific
USER NEEDS
Although there is a significant level of satisfaction regarding current
services, various user groups identified areas where improvements in ser-
vices would enhance their activities.
In general the greatest need to National Weather Service operations is
to achieve improvements in observation capability. Better, more compre-
hensive observations are the prerequisite for improvements in short- and
long-term forecasts. Of nearly equal importance is the need to improve the
quality of dissemination. A large number of users depend on the present
system of voice transmission, and the present NOAA capability is limited by
range was well as geographic coverage. Improvements in this aspect alone
would substantially improve service to many users of the nation's coastal
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TABLE H-2 Inadequacies in Marine Obserration Capabilities
Number
Technique Displayed
Level of Adequacy Comments
Radar
Absolute-NEXRAD deploy- By 1995, system
ment under way fully operational
Ocean buoys 54 Highly accurate, and Costly to install
reliable; present and maintain;
coverage inadequate good source of
for aberration of data
marine weather and
oceanic data
C-Man 41 Coverage incomplete; Dependent on
dependable, reliable coverage; results
hourly observation appear cost
effective
Volunteer ship Data highly subjective Forms basis for
observers and confined to ship all high-seas
routes obeenrations
Marine 20 Incomplete coverage, Provides for high
reports stations very limited to radio level of
coverage at station cooperative
location efforts
waters. Geographic coverage was also a matter of considerable concern.
Presently, weather forecasts are issued for a fairly broad area along the
coast or within an estuary, such as the Chesapeake Bay. Users of these
areas, particularly the recreational fishermen and boater and the small-scale
commercial fishermen, find that such forecasts do not offer small enough
resolution. Improvements to a large measure depend on increases in the
number of observations.
AI)EQUACY OF PRESENT CAPABILITIES
As noted above, current capabilities of marine observations are in-
adequate to provide for significant improvement-in the current level of
forecasts. These inadequacies are summarized in Bible H-2.
Inadequate support results in significant losses to users. Losses occur
in a variety of ways and are not fully quantifiable at this time. Improvements
in coverage, level of accuracy, reliability, and so on will to a large degree
offset those losses and i nclude multiple groups.
- The benefits will include cost savings to commercial operations that can
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moditr their operations in response to the better forecasts. In many cases
there will be multiple potential beneficiaries. The expected cost savings per
period for the entire set of these commercial operators would be relevant.
Therefore the benefits are likely to be highest in heavily used shipping
lanes, congested terminal areas, areas of high recreational use (boaters,
beach goers), and commercial fisheries. Other commercial benefits include
improved safety, potentially measurable as reduced loss of life and expected
dollar value of reduced equipment damage.
One important and often neglected point is that not all of the benefits
of improved forecasts will accrue directly to the commercial operators
making use of the forecasts. In highly competitive industries the benefits
may also accrue to the consumers. There may also be benefits in the form
of reduced risks of environmental damage from oil spills and so on.
1b the extent that the expected benefits are broadly diffused across a
wide spectrum of individuals, private forecasting services might be unable
to provide the improved service even though the potential new social
benefits might be large. In that instance, public provision would be more
efficient. Public provision would also tend to be more efficient in cases
where it is difficult to exclude nonpayers from using the service (e.g.,
information transmitted via radio). Benefits will accrue to recreational
boaters and commercial operators who support sports fishermen. One
clear immediate benefit will be improved safety. In addition to the direct
benefit of reduced loss of life and property, there is the indirect benefit of
reduced public expenditures on search and rescue. In addition to improved
safety, improved quality of recreational experience should be identified. If
better forecasts allow recreationists to make better decisions about activities
on any given day, they will enjoy a higher average quality of recreation.
Such benefits would be difficult but not impossible to quantity. Techniques
are now available to estimate the value of quality attributes of recreational
sites. Similar techniques could be applied to this problem.
IMPROVING THE PRODUCT AND SERVICES
The user communist needs to be better informed about the govern-
mental weather community's capabilities. Many users are not fully aware
of what the government agencies can provide. Thus, a program could be
developed to educate the user community about available government data,
programs, and other services. The community could then access existing
information and take better advantage of it. Also, as new or improved
programs are developed by the government, the availability and capabilities
of these programs should be made readily available for public knowledge.
'rhe general concept of improving technical forecasting has consider-
able merit. However, for it to be useful to the public and for it to remain
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within the realm of NWS responsibility, it is apparent that serious study
will be required. Care must be exercised so that one particular user group
does not appear to be gaining the majority of the derived benefits. The
NWS depends on observations of weather and ocean conditions. Many
private industries can accurately make such observations. NWS and these
groups should try to develop mechanisms to update the absorption of this
information into the system. In most cases, private industry would respond
to this concern because better forecasts would be to their benefit. In other
words, the: user community would be more involved by gathering informa-
tion for the forecasting program. The foremost unmet need is enhancement
of aquatic environment observations. In general, observations over inland
areas (i.e., Great Lakes and inland waterways) are considered adequate
for production of appropriate forecasts. Over the coastal and ocean areas,
significant improvements are required to forecast weather oceanic phenom-
ena. Installation of equipment such as radar (NEXRAD) and improved
computer capacity should result in very significant improvements in marine
weather forecasting capability. Other cooperative efforts such as C-Man
and MAREP can result in significant improvements in coastal area weather
observations. Additional steps should be explored to involve industry in
data collection.
Obtaining additional oceanic observations will require significant ex-
panded efforts and coordination. Cooperative efforts such as those men-
tioned above can readily be expanded. Some would require minimum costs,
while others could be extremely expensive.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Within present resource conditions, the working group recommends
· improved observation through greater cooperative arrangements,
such as C-Man, MAREP, and others;
· improved dissemination through changes in format, area of cover-
age, and adjustments to radio transmission;
· improved public understanding of weather service capabilities, in-
creased public awareness of marine users, and training of weather observers;
and
groups.
.
· refocusing on user needs through discussions with various user
Filth limited additional resources, the working group recommends
improved observations as noted above and adding ocean buoys that
are properly placed; and
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rivers.
· terminal forecasts be provided for entrances to major harbors and
With significant additional resources, the worldug group recommends
.
.
additional ocean buoys;
· satellites;
· expanded cooperative arrangements; and
at-sea ship radios and training of ship personnel.
In the area of surprise storms, the working group recommends
continued research on physics,
· continued development of empirical techniques,
· research that includes observations involving satellite and forecast-
ing techniques,
· issuance of appropriate warnings,
· user education,
institution of three-hour reporting.
Recommendations Concerning Overall Capabilities
Increased effort is needed to improve or establish operational capabil-
ities for nowcasts and forecasts of velocity, temperature, and related fields
within the coastal and deep offshore ocean, including fisheries forecasts
and the development of an EEZ capability. Coordination and cooperation
of ongoing and component efforts is necessary, as is the development of a
national policy for internal ocean weather nowcasting and forecasting.
There is an urgent need to establish a national ocean monitoring satel-
lite program for the routine operational observation of marine parameters
(wind, waves, sea-surface topography, sea color, temperature).
Recommendations for Dissemination Systems
The existing services of high frequency facsimile and radioteletype
should be maintained. Satellite transmissions should be improved and
broadened.
NOAA Weather Radio should be upgraded to provide scheduled
broadcasts (i.e., after-the-hour marine forecasts at 27 nmi). Its range
of broadcast and resolution of marine forecast should be improved.
NAV~I~X broadcasts should be more frequent than once every 6
hours and warnings should be disseminated by all media as they are issued.
Adequate time allocations for broadcasts should be ensured.
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HIGHLIGHTS
The best service the NWS could provide the mariner is the most
detailed, most accurate forecast possible, out as far in time as possible.
Accurate detailed forecasts out 5 days would be extensively used.
There is a need for a ~`marine terminal forecast" outside the entrance
to major harbors and rivers. Such a forecast would be widely used for
planning purposes by mariners entering and exiting port.
CW and radio teletype communications are being phased out in favor
of satellite communications. NWS should emphasize distribution of weather
information and observation collection using satellites.
Radio facsimile weather broadcasts are often not well received near-
shore. Since many users operate near the coast and are increasingly
equipped with facsimile receivers, a program needs to be developed that
would ensure that this high density of users is not omitted from radio
facsimile reception.
llo recognize ship participation in the cooperative ship observation
program, NWS should provide a pennant or some type of recognition that
could be displayed onboard ship.
Most shipping companies would welcome NWS forecasters to sail on
their ships to familiarize the forecaster with shipboard operations and the
New with NWS procedures.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
weather service
