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Opportunities to Improve
Marine Forecasting
Committee on Opportunities to Improve
Marine Observations and Forecasting
Marine Board
Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1989
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved lay the Governing
Board of the National Research Council, whose membem are drawn from the councils of
the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute
of Medicine. The members of the panel responsible for the report were chosen for their
special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to
procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National
Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society
of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the
furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the
authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate
that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr.
Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of
the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It
is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the
National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. Ibe
National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting
national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements
of engineers. Dr. Robert HI. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences
to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination
of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the
responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to
be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of
medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Their is president of the Institute of
Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences
in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's
purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in
accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the
principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National
Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the
scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both
Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are
chairman and vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
The program described in this report is supported by Cooperative Agreement No.
14-12-0001-30416 between the Minerals Management Service of the U.S. Department of
the Interior and the National Academy of Sciences.
Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 89-62946
International Standard Book Number 0-309-04090
Additional copies of this report are available from:
National Academy Press
2101 Constitution Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20418
Printed in the United States of America
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COMMITTEE ON OPPORTUNITIES TO IMPROVE MARINE
OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTING
PETER R. TATRO, Chairman, Science Applications International
Corporation, McLean, Virginia
KENNETH ~ BLENKARN, Amoco Production Company (retired),
Tulsa, Oklahoma
ROBERT T. BUSH, Universe Tankships, Inc., New York, New York
MICHAEL H. GLANTZ, National Center for Atmospheric Research,
Boulder, Colorado
WILLIAM G. GORDON, New Jersey Marine Sciences Consortium, Fort
Hancock, New Jersey
ROBERT E. HARING, Exxon Production Research Company, Houston,
Texas
JON F. KLEIN, Consultant, Millburn, New Jersey
ALLAN R. ROBINSON, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
KENNETH W. RUGGLES, Systems West, Inc., Carmel, California
Govemment Liaisons
ROBERT H. FEDEN, Office of the Oceanographer of the Navy,
Washington, D.C.
JAMES S. LYNCH, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
National Ocean Service, Washington, D.C.
RICHARD WAGONER, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, National Weather Service, Washington, D.C.
Staff
CHARLES ~ BOOKMAN, Project Director
C. LINCOLN CRANE, Jr., Staff Officer
RONALD C. TIPPER, Consultant
GLORIA B. GREEN, Project Secretary
. . .
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MARINE BOARD
SIDNEY WALLACE, Chairman, Hill, Betts & Nash, Washington, D.C.
BRIAN J. WATT, r~ce-Chainnan, TECHSAVANT, Inc., Kingston, Texas
ROGER D. ANDERSON, Cox's Wholesale Seafood, Inc., Tampa, Florida
ROBERT G. BEA, NAE, University of California, Berkeley
JAMES M. BROADUS III, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Woods Hole, Massachusetts
F. PAT DUNN, Shell Oil Company, Houston, Texas
LARRY L. GENTRY, Lockheed Advanced Marine Systems, Sunnyvale,
California
DANA R. KESTER, Graduate School of Oceanography, University of
Rhode Island
JUDITH KILDOW, Department of Ocean Engineering, Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts
WARREN G. LEBACK, Consultant, Princeton, New Jersey
BERNARD LE MEHAUTE, University of Miamia, Florida
WILLIAM R. MURDEN, Murden Marine, Ltd., Alexandria, Virginia
EUGENE K PENTIMONTI, American President Lines, Ltd., Oakland,
California
JOSEPH D. PORRICELLI, ECO, Inc., Annapolis, Maryland
JERRY R. SCHUBEL, State University of New York, Stony Brook
RICHARD J. SEYMOUR, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla,
California
ROBERT N. STEINER, Operations, Atlantic Container Line, South
Plainfield' New Jersey
BRIAN J. WATT, TECHSAVANT, Inc., Kingwood, Texas
EDWARD WENK, JR., Seattle, Washington
Staff
CHARLES ~ BOOKMAN, Director
DONALD W. PERKINS, Associate Director
C. LINCOLN CRANE, JR., Staff Officer
ALEXANDER STAVOVY, Stan Officer
SUSAN GARBINI, Staff Officer
PAUL SCHOLZ, Research Fellow
DORIS C. HOLMES, Staff Associate
DELPHINE GLAZE, Administrative Secretary
AURORE BLECK, Administrative Secretary
GLORIA B. GREEN, Project Secretary
CARLA D. MOORE, Project Secretary
1V
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Abstract
Significant opportunities to improve marine services and products have
been brought about by new observational techniques and high speed com-
puters. Exploitation of these opportunities requires better management by
increased coordination among the many sponsoring government agencies.
Hurricane forecasting was identified as an example of how effectively
the present system could work when given priority and cooperation. It is
mandatory that current capability be maintained.
Evolutionary improvements to the existing ocean forecasting system
can be achieved by making better use of the existing data sources, by
presenting the resulting analyses and forecasts more frequently to the user
community with better spatial and temporal resolution, and by improving
the means of dissemination.
Revolutionary improvements will require the development of global,
coupled ocean-atmospheric models capable of analyzing and predicting on
many time and space scales. These models are now feasible because com-
puters of sufficient size and speed are becoming available. Atmospheric
modeling is a mature science by comparison with ocean modeling; consid-
erable effort will be required to develop the ocean models.
Both the ocean and atmospheric models will critically require signifi-
cantly improved input data if they are to be successful. The United States
has the opportunity to establish itself as the world leader in ocean forecast-
ing by establishing an operational capability for forecasting critical ocean
properties supported by a national operational oceanographic satellite sys-
tem. Significant benefits of this system would be manifested in the areas
of transportation, ocean energy development, fisheries and recreation, and
coastal management.
v
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Preface
Reliable marine observation and forecasting are essential to the safe
and productive use of the sea and the coastal zone. Both commerce and
the general public depend increasingly on accurate forecasts of marine
conditions and weather over the oceans to prevent losses and to ensure
public safety. More and more, the United States is turning to the sea for
resources—energy, minerals, food, and commercial and recreational space.
In some areas of the continental shelf, thousands of offshore platforms
compete for space with commercial fishermen, recreational boaters, and
shipping traffic. Elsewhere, fisheries management activities to 200 miles
offshore have added hundreds of new vessels to the offshore fishing fleets,
and increased shipping traffic has led to designated shipping lanes and ves-
sel traffic control. Onshore, low-lying coastal communities are becoming
crowded places characterized by high investment. Many new, high-risk ac-
tivities are venturing into the harsh offshore environment. Public awareness
of coastal crises, whether storm or pollution related, are being enhanced
through media coverage.
The National Research Council, recognizing the opportunity to exam-
ine these trends and to improve safety, appointed a committee under its
Marine Board to undertake an interdisciplinary assessment of the needs
and expected benefits to be realized by improving the nation's ocean obser-
vation and forecasting capabilities. The committee was asked to investigate
opportunities to improve marine forecasting brought about by new obser-
vational techniques and high-speed computers.
The committee was charged with
· developing clear statements of user requirements for improved
observations and forecasts,
Vil
, .
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· identifying key issues and supporting facts relating to the need for
and provision of improved marine observations and forecasts, and
stimulating dialogue among all who are involved with the process
of developing, providing, and using marine observations and forecasts.
The committee was composed of members with representative exper-
tise in the fields of marine meteorology, oceanography, forecasting, and
forecast dissemination and from user communities such as fishing, oil and
gas extraction, and vessel operation (biographies of committee members
appear in Appendix A). The principle guiding the constitution of the com-
mittee and its work, consistent with the policy of the National Research
Council, was not to exclude members with potential biases that might ac-
company expertise vital to the study, but to seek balance and fair treatment.
The committee was assisted by representatives of the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Navy who were desig-
nated as liaison representatives.
The committee dealt with synoptic scale phenomena in the atmosphere
and with mesoscale phenomena in the oceans. It did not address long-
term, seasonal variability or other long-term phenomena. Furthermore, its
inquiry was limited to physical processes; it did not address the forecasting
of biological phenomena.
The committee met several times during a two-year period commencing
in November 1987. Presentations were solicited from government and
private organizations that provide marine forecasts. A questionnaire was
developed and a survey was conducted of a representative population of the
community that uses or derives significant benefit from marine forecasts
and observations (Appendix B). Based on the survey results, a national
meeting was convened at the Arnold and Mabel Beckman Center of the
National Academy of Sciences in Irvine, California, on September 27-29,
1988. It brought together members of the user and provider communities
for paper presentations, open forum discussions, and the development of
working group papers on specific issues. The papers appear as part of this
report. The agenda and participants of the national meeting are listed in
Appendixes C and D. The results of the national meeting are documented
in five working group reports that are attached to this volume (Appendixes
E-I):
Working Group 1- Wind, Wave, and Swell;
Working Group 2 Topical and Extratropical Storms;
Working Group 3 Currents, Ocean Processes, and Ice;
Working Group ~Nearshore Forecasting; and
.. .
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.
Working Group 5—Collection, Reporting, Dissemination, and Dis-
play.
The committee's findings and recommendations are based on pre-
sentations made to the committee, the results of the users survey, the
presentations, discussions, and deliberations of the providers and users
who participated in the national meeting, and the professional experience
of the committee members. The entire report has been reviewed by a
group other than the authors, but only Chapters 1-3 have been subjected
to the report review criteria established by the National Research Council's
Report Review Committee. The workshop reports have been reviewed for
factual correctness.
The committee gratefully aclmowledges the generous contributions of
time and information provided by the liaison representatives and their
agencies and the many individuals who participated in the data-gathering
process inherent to the project. Special thanks are extended to all those
who communicated with the project by telephone and mail, including
those who responded to the questionnaire and participated in the national
meeting. Glenn Flittner of the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS)
helped the committee clarify the scope of the project in the early months.
Richard Posthumus of Sea-L~nd Company assisted with the design of
the questionnaire and in identifying potential recipients in the maritime
industry. Walter Pereyra of Profish International provided valuable insight
concerning the environmental forecasting needs of the Northwest fisheries.
Cathy Beech of Science Applications International Corporation provided
administrative assistance to the Marine Board staff. The extraordinary
cooperation and interest in the committee's work of so many knowledgeable
individuals were both gratifying and essential.
IX
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Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Findings, xv
Recommendations, six
1 THE MARINE OBSERVING AND FORECASTING SYSTEM..
Observing Systems, 1
Data Collection, 5
Global Weather and Ocean Prediction, 6
Tailored Marine Forecasting, 8
Product Dissemination, 11
Data Archival and Research and Development, 12
2 USERS OF MARINE FORECASTS ...........................
Responses to Committee Survey, 15
Workshop Description, 20
Reconciliation of Questionnaire and Workshop Results, 22
Economic Perspective, 24
Expected Benefits of Forecasting Improvements, 26
3 FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS . . .
Finding 1: Improved Coordination is Needed, 29
Finding 2: Hurricane Forecasting is Adequate and Sources of Data
and Forecasting Techniques Should be Maintained, 31
Finding 3: More Synoptic Data Are Needed, 32
Finding 4: Improvements Are Needed in Resolution in Space and
Time, and Forecast Horizon, 35
Finding 5: Improved Dissemination Systems and Linkage to
Navy Marine Facsimile Broadcast Are Needed, 37
X1
. . .
...... X111
.1
..14
....29
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Finding 6: The Need for New Systems for Forecasting Internal
Ocean Weather Exists, 40
Finding 7: Efforts Are Needed to Understand and Operationally
Forecast Episodic Waves and Explosive Cyclogenesis, 41
APPENDIX A Biographies of Committee Members
APPENDIX B Questionnaire and Responses 48
APPENDIX C Workshop Participants 57
APPENDIX D Workshop Agenda 60
APPENDIX E Working Group 1: Wind, Wave, and Swell 64
APPENDIX F Working Group 2: Topical and Extratropical Storms . 74
APPENDIX G Working Group 3: Currents, Ocean Processes,
and Ice ~ 96
APPENDIX H
APPENDIX I
Working Group 4: Nearshore Forecasting
Working Group 5: Collection, Reporting,
Dissemination, and Display..............
. .
X11
....
........... 44
....... 108
117
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Executive Summary
During the past two decades the coastal areas of the United States
have experienced increased population and increased commercial and recre-
ational use both ashore and on the sea. Land values in most coastal regions
have slyrocketed because of the greater demand for coastal properties.
Iburism has grown into a multibillion dollar per year enterprise. Declara-
tion of the Fisheries Management Zone and the Exclusive Economic Zone
have extended U.S. commercial interests in minerals, mining, energy extrac-
tion, and fisheries farther out to sea. The majority of international trade in
energy materials, bunk cargo, and finished goods continues to move by sea.
Ships may be fewer in number, but they are larger in capacity; the total
tonnage moving by sea continues to increase. All these activities, including
the construction of private homes, waterfront structures, recreational small
craft, fishing fleets, and cargo vessels, and environmental protection mea-
sures are capital intensive. Some offshore ventures, such as those of the oil
and gas industry, are particularly high-value high-risk operations.
All activities at sea and on the coasts are sensitive to atmospheric and
oceanic conditions. Hurricane winds, waves, and storm tides can inflict
losses of life and property on a massive scale. Forecasting the intensity
and track of hurricanes is of paramount importance. At the other end of
the forecasting spectrum is providing information on conditions, such as
ocean temperature, that can be used by the fishing industry and recreational
fishing community. As use of the sea and coastal regions has grown, so
has dependence on the forecast of meteorological and oceanic conditions
to avoid loss, ensure the safety of lifer and maximize the economic well-
being of industry and commerce. In addition, the forecasting of marine
conditions has secured for itself a vital role in protecting the environment
both for the safe disposal of waste products and the prompt response to
pollution incidents.
. ..
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Recognizing these facts and further recognizing that marine forecast-
ing is being altered by rapidly changing technology such as supercomputers
and satellite-borne remote sensing systems, the National Research Council
under its Marine Board commissioned a committee to undertake an inter-
disciplinary assessment of the needs and benefits to be realized by improving
ocean data collection and forecasting. The committee was drawn together
from a wide variety of backgrounds including meteorology, oceanography,
numerical modeling, satellite remote sensing, forecasting, vessel opera-
tions, fisheries, and minerals extraction and from government and private
sector individuals who provide today's operational forecasting capability.
The committee's composition and procedures were in agreement with the
guidelines of the National Research Council. The National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Navy provided liaison
personnel to assist the committee.
The Committee on Opportunities to Improve Marine Observations
and Forecasting was charged to
undertake an interdisciplinary assessment of the needs and expected
benefits associated with improving forecasts of ocean conditions, including
weather over the oceans and associated technology;
· consider observations and prediction of ocean conditions including
waves, currents, temperature, and ice; as well as the associated meteoro-
logical winds, air temperatures, precipitation, visibility, and cloud cover;
· consider effects on general vessel operations, navigation, search
and rescue missions, marine ecosystem analysis, fisheries operations, port
operations, coastal zone management, and other ocean management and
operations, as appropriate;
identify needs of users for improvement and the technical potential
to meet improvement needs;
identify potential or probable benefits;
consider needed research and development; and
· establish a dialogue among interested parties, for example oceanog-
raphers, atmospheric scientists, remote sensing experts, and users of marine
forecasts including those who conduct commercial ocean operations, and
other applicable groups.
The committee developed information by reviewing literature, com-
missioning background papers by committee members and government
agencies, conducting a survey of a wide range of users, and convening a
national meeting with representation from both the provider and the user
communities.
The survey questionnaire was a key element in sampling the opinions
of the user community and structuring the national meeting. It asked a
number of critical questions about the use of marine forecasts, sources of
XIV
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forecast information, method of receipt, reliability, and desired forecast
features not now being received. Responses to the survey provided a good
cross section of current operational users in the shipping, oil and gas, and
fisheries and recreational industries and indicated that about 90 percent of
commercial users of the ocean and coastal waters utilize marine weather
forecasts.
From the major topics identified by the questionnaires, background
papers, and a review of the literature, the format of the national meeting
was developed. Presentations were invited from representatives of key
governmental agencies having a function in marine forecasting and the
collection of marine observations. This was followed by presentations from
key user groups such as vessel operators, fisheries, dredging, and oil and
gas recovery. Presentations were also made by representatives of the value-
added (private forecast) community. General presentations were followed
by interactive discussion among all participants. At the conclusion of the
invited papers, the participants split into five working groups to address
specific issues: wind, wave, and swell; tropical and extratropical storms; ice,
currents, and ocean processes; nearshore forecasting; collection, reporting,
dissemination, and display.
Each working group reported its preliminary findings in plenary session,
followed by an open discussion. In this manner significant dialogue between
all interested parties was stimulated and presented in a forum to provide
input to the final committee's report. Following is a summary of the
committee's findings and recommendations.
FINDINGS
1. Improve management. The committee found several important
program areas where needed developments will be difficult or impossible
without clarifications of policy and improvements in coordination.
· Who's in Charge?—All too frequently, the committee was unable
to identify the person or agency clearly and singly responsible for operation
of the observing and forecasting system and end user support.
· Implications of Classification of Environmental Data The Navy is
a major producer of environmental observations and analytical products,
which form the technical basis of ~ wide range of civilian forecasts. Recent
technical advances have raised the prospect that some environmental data
fields and products may be classified by the Navy in the future. Planning
and coordinating are essential to ensure that civilian needs continue to be
met even as military requirements change.
· Public and Private Roles There is a reasonable balance between
government and private marine forecast sector products and activities.
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2. Hurricane forecasting is adequate and should not be degraded.
Forecasting by the National Weather Service, and user response to such
forecasts, have been successful in minimizing loss of life and property dam-
age due to hurricanes in the U.S. coastal regions. User groups are aware of
the uncertainties of hurricane forecasting and generally accept the burden
of "false alarm" evacuation. The potential for improvement notwithstand-
ing, the present forecasting of tropical storms is considered satisfactory for
the fishing and shipping fleets. The committee was extremely concerned that
no measures, such as the withdrawal of hurricane reconnaissance aircraft by
the Air Force, be accomplished in the name of economy. At present, and
for the foreseeable future, no data are available that adequately substitute
for aircraft data in the measurement of central pressures, wind speed, and
the precise location of the storm center. Given the present low skill in
hurricane track forecasting, and the potential for vast damage and loss of
life that exists from any hurricane, there is no reasonable justification for
removing any source of critical data on tropical storms.
3. More synoptic data are needed. The ocean, representing some
70 percent of the global surface, is a vastly undersampled region. This
is a severe handicap when initializing numerical models that provide the
guidance used to generate nowcast and forecast products. Even if every
ship at sea could (and would) report observations in a timely manner, many
global regions would be virtually devoid of data. Improvements will depend
on: (1) using every technologically available resource to- obtain synoptic
observations, (2) not losing data available from high-seas operators, and
(3) organizing to maximize the data collection and utilization efforts. The
committee finds improvements are needed in each of the following areas:
· Operational Oceanographic Satellite The nation now has no plans
to field a suite of sensors tailored to measure, in an operational mode,
the ocean variables deemed most critical to ocean forecasting. Ib have
these fields measured simultaneously from an orbit optimized for synoptic
forecasting transmitted to primary operational ocean modeling centers has
the potential to revolutionize ocean forecasting. The present program
of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is the
nation's sole space oceanography effort. While commendable in execution
of its chartered role to develop and demonstrate the technology for ocean
measurements, it is not designed to function as an operational ocean
satellite program. Such a program would have significant benefit to a
number of commercial activities, the military establishment, and to the
general public.
· Lost Data Opportunities- The committee was most concerned to
learn that the current system for the timely collection of marine observa-
tions, especially from vessels at sea, is not fulfilling its potential by a wide
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margin. It is estimated that 50 percent of all potential marine observations
are not utilized in the numerical model runs that form the basis of forecast
guidance. The reasons appear myriad, but the following could be targeted
as problems warranting prompt attention: improving the number of ships
that submit observations and the total number of observations from ships;
improving the routine, timely delivery of vessel reports to the modeling
center for the synoptic model run; and improving the overall management
of the data collection effort. These and other reasons call for prompt
action on the part of governmental agencies with responsibilities to collect,
process, and use this data.
4. Improvements are needed in resolution in space and time, and
forecast horizon. Users stated a strong desire to alter the resolution of
marine forecasts either by reduction of the area covered by a specific
forecast or by adding higher resolution information about weather events
within a forecast area. Users also desired more frequent forecast updates,
especially during dangerous periods such as storm conditions. A wide
number of users would benefit from higher resolution forecasts, especially
those using smaller vessels or those conducting high-risk operations in the
nearshore region (0 to 50 miles). Users are often not well served by
forecasts that cover general conditions over a broad region of the coastline
when their operations are conducted, for example, within a Simile radius
of a certain port within that coastal region. Operations with this type of
impact include commercial and recreational fishing, recreational boating,
ocean engineering, pollution abatement, dredging, and tourism. High-seas
vessel operators are concerned with more details about atmospheric frontal
systems, including their horizontal extent and speed and direction of travel.
Large-vessel operators are primarily concerned with detailed conditions
when making landfall or entering port.
5. Improved dissemination systems and linkage to navy marine fac-
simile broadcast are needed. No matter what improvements are made in
the marine observation net, and the resultant improvements in nowcasting
and forecasting skill, those results will have been for naught if the system
of disseminating the information to the users cannot keep pace. As the
federal agencies respond to changing technology and changing budgets,
they must maintain close coordination with each other and with the user
community to ensure no breakdown in the dissemination system.
The committee finds there is cause to examine NOAA Weather Radio,
which is the primary carrier for ocean weather information to the fishing
Beet and the recreational boater, in three areas: (1) extending the range
of the signal to 50 miles, (2) timing the broadcast to treat specific marine
areas at a designated time, and (3) changing broadcast content to include
more fine-scale information on current and forecast weather.
. .
xv~
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While supporting NAVTEX, an international system of communica-
tion, the committee is concerned (1) that there be sufficient time allowed
on the broadcast to permit the full weather forecast to be presented and
(2) that there be a mechanism whereby warnings of ocean weather can be
immediately transmitted. It is obvious that if forecasts are both more site
specific and more frequent, the potential burden for the NAVTEX system
will increase.
While marine facsimile and radio teletype are both current systems for
communication of marine weather data, the committee is most concerned
about maintaining the capability of the marine facsimile broadcast. This
broadcast is the weather backbone of most seagoing vessels. If the Navy
cancels their support of marine facsimile broadcasts, another federal agency
must take up the role of providing marine facsimile support in compliance
with U.S. obligations as a signatory to the SafeW of Life at Sea (SOLAS)
Convention.
6. The need for new systems for forecasting internal ocean weather
exists. Nowcasting, as it applies to marine forecasting, is the concept
of integrating satellite and conventional observations in the context of a
numerical ocean model to produce the best possible description of existing
conditions. Forecasting carries this concept forward to the prediction of
conditions at some specified time in the future. The committee found
that there exists a common national interest in and need for nowcasts
and forecasts of oceanic velocity and thermal and related fields within the
nearshore and adjacent deep ocean. Significant and sustainable benefits
to a variety of commercial, military, and recreational oceanic activities are
identifiable and are now feasible for the first time, based on exist mg ocean
science and technology. Improved nowcasts and forecasts of internal ocean
weather and related boundary processes are becoming practicable. The
technology is feasible and recent advances in scientific understanding have
made timely prediction realistic and accomplishable.
7. Better knowledge is needed of "bomb" storms and rogue waves.
Leo distinct areas of marine weather, the episodic wave and explosive cyclo-
genesis, present phenomena of great concern to the shipping community.
The episodic (or rogue) wave presents the mariner with the unforeseen
occurrence of one or trains of very large waves, much larger than expected
for the sea conditions forecast. Damage or loss of cargo and potential
injury or loss of personnel can result. The second is the surprise storm or
explosive cyclogenesis. In this case, a storm center deepens much more
rapidly than forecast, generating extreme wind and sea conditions totally
unexpected by the mariner. The important operative in both events is
unforecast. The physics of these phenomena are at present insufficiently
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understood to provide any degree of predictability with confidence. The
committee finds that additional research on both these events is required.
RECOMMENDATIONS
RECOMMENDATION: Improve Management Improved coordina-
tion of the national ocean forecasting program is of such critical importance
that a review of policy should be undertaken by the administrator of NOAA
and the oceanographer of the Navy. Among the specific issues of concern
to the committee are
· designation of a national policy and a lead agency for an operational
oceanographic satellite system;
designation of a national policy and a lead agency for nowcasting
and forecasting internal ocean weather,
· maintenance and improvement of the services provided to the civil
sector; and
· maintenance of the free exchange of data and information.
RECOMMENDATION: Improve Data Collection. NOAA should
make a strong effort to increase the efficient voluntary reporting of timely
marine observations and to increase the number of vessels providing these
important data. Automation of shipboard observation systems and the use
of satellite communication links are vital to increasing the quantity and
quality of marine data.
RECOMMENDATION: Improve Resolution. NOAA can and should
increase the usefulness of its products where supported by present analyses
and forecasts by increasing the resolution in space and time, extending the
time horizon of forecasts, and increasing the frequency of issue. Future
product improvements should emphasize increased resolution and meeting
user needs.
RECOMMENDATION: Improve Forecast Dissemination. NOAA
should develop a national strategy for marine forecast product dissemi-
nation to users. Specifically, it should
define the role of NOAA weather radio for supporting the marine
communist and configure the system consistent with that role;
structure the national plan for implementing NAV'I~X so that it
is responsive to the need for expanded marine forecasting service;
· provide for a full-period national marine facsimile service equiva-
lent to the existing U.S. Navy service; and
· provide for such other services as necessary to support user needs.
RECOMMENDATION: Operational Oceanographic Satellite System.
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A national program for an operational oceanographic satellite system
should be established.
RECOMMENDATION: Advance the Capability for Forecasting In-
ternal Ocean Weather. The nation should establish an operational capa-
bility for nowcasting and forecasting oceanic velocity, temperature, and
related fields to support coastal and offshore operations and management.
Development of these capabilities will require the establishment of an
observational network in areas of high priority.
RECOMMENDATION: Research on "Bomb" Storms and Rogue
Waves. The federal government should develop the capability to forecast
both episodic waves and explosive cyclogenesis.
