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NATIONAL NCHRP REPORT 606 COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM Forecasting Statewide Freight Toolkit

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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2008 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE* OFFICERS CHAIR: Debra L. Miller, Secretary, Kansas DOT, Topeka VICE CHAIR: Adib K. Kanafani, Cahill Professor of Civil Engineering, University of California, Berkeley EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: Robert E. Skinner, Jr., Transportation Research Board MEMBERS J. Barry Barker, Executive Director, Transit Authority of River City, Louisville, KY Allen D. Biehler, Secretary, Pennsylvania DOT, Harrisburg John D. Bowe, President, Americas Region, APL Limited, Oakland, CA Larry L. Brown, Sr., Executive Director, Mississippi DOT, Jackson Deborah H. Butler, Executive Vice President, Planning, and CIO, Norfolk Southern Corporation, Norfolk, VA William A.V. Clark, Professor, Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles David S. Ekern, Commissioner, Virginia DOT, Richmond Nicholas J. Garber, Henry L. Kinnier Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville Jeffrey W. Hamiel, Executive Director, Metropolitan Airports Commission, Minneapolis, MN Edward A. (Ned) Helme, President, Center for Clean Air Policy, Washington, DC Will Kempton, Director, California DOT, Sacramento Susan Martinovich, Director, Nevada DOT, Carson City Michael D. Meyer, Professor, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta Michael R. Morris, Director of Transportation, North Central Texas Council of Governments, Arlington Neil J. Pedersen, Administrator, Maryland State Highway Administration, Baltimore Pete K. Rahn, Director, Missouri DOT, Jefferson City Sandra Rosenbloom, Professor of Planning, University of Arizona, Tucson Tracy L. Rosser, Vice President, Corporate Traffic, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., Bentonville, AR Rosa Clausell Rountree, Executive Director, Georgia State Road and Tollway Authority, Atlanta Henry G. (Gerry) Schwartz, Jr., Chairman (retired), Jacobs/Sverdrup Civil, Inc., St. Louis, MO C. Michael Walton, Ernest H. Cockrell Centennial Chair in Engineering, University of Texas, Austin Linda S. Watson, CEO, LYNXCentral Florida Regional Transportation Authority, Orlando Steve Williams, Chairman and CEO, Maverick Transportation, Inc., Little Rock, AR EX OFFICIO MEMBERS Thad Allen (Adm., U.S. Coast Guard), Commandant, U.S. Coast Guard, Washington, DC Joseph H. Boardman, Federal Railroad Administrator, U.S.DOT Rebecca M. Brewster, President and COO, American Transportation Research Institute, Smyrna, GA Paul R. Brubaker, Research and Innovative Technology Administrator, U.S.DOT George Bugliarello, Chancellor, Polytechnic University of New York, Brooklyn, and Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Engineering, Washington, DC J. Richard Capka, Federal Highway Administrator, U.S.DOT Sean T. Connaughton, Maritime Administrator, U.S.DOT LeRoy Gishi, Chief, Division of Transportation, Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington, DC Edward R. Hamberger, President and CEO, Association of American Railroads, Washington, DC John H. Hill, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administrator, U.S.DOT John C. Horsley, Executive Director, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, DC Carl T. Johnson, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administrator, U.S.DOT J. Edward Johnson, Director, Applied Science Directorate, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, John C. Stennis Space Center, MS William W. Millar, President, American Public Transportation Association, Washington, DC Nicole R. Nason, National Highway Traffic Safety Administrator, U.S.DOT Jeffrey N. Shane, Under Secretary for Policy, U.S.DOT James S. Simpson, Federal Transit Administrator, U.S.DOT Robert A. Sturgell, Acting Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration, U.S.DOT Robert L. Van Antwerp (Lt. Gen., U.S. Army), Chief of Engineers and Commanding General, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, DC *Membership as of January 2008.

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NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM NCHRP REPORT 606 Forecasting Statewide Freight Toolkit Cambridge Systematics, Inc. CAMBRIDGE, MA Global Insight (formerly Reebie Associates) LEXINGTON, MA Harry Cohen WASHINGTON, DC Alan Horowitz MILWAUKEE, WI Ram Pendyala PHOENIX, AZ Subject Areas Planning and Administration Rail Freight Transportation Research sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2008 www.TRB.org

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NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY NCHRP REPORT 606 RESEARCH PROGRAM Systematic, well-designed research provides the most effective Project 08-43 approach to the solution of many problems facing highway ISSN 0077-5614 administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local ISBN: 978-0-309-09924-0 interest and can best be studied by highway departments individually Library of Congress Control Number 2008921911 or in cooperation with their state universities and others. However, the 2008 Transportation Research Board accelerating growth of highway transportation develops increasingly complex problems of wide interest to highway authorities. These problems are best studied through a coordinated program of COPYRIGHT PERMISSION cooperative research. Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining In recognition of these needs, the highway administrators of the written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials published or copyrighted material used herein. initiated in 1962 an objective national highway research program Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this employing modern scientific techniques. This program is supported on publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, a continuing basis by funds from participating member states of the FMCSA, FTA, or Transit Development Corporation endorsement of a particular product, Association and it receives the full cooperation and support of the method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for Federal Highway Administration, United States Department of educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission Transportation. from CRP. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies was requested by the Association to administer the research program because of the Board's recognized objectivity and understanding of NOTICE modern research practices. The Board is uniquely suited for this purpose as it maintains an extensive committee structure from which The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of authorities on any highway transportation subject may be drawn; it the Governing Board of the National Research Council. Such approval reflects the possesses avenues of communications and cooperation with federal, Governing Board's judgment that the program concerned is of national importance and state and local governmental agencies, universities, and industry; its appropriate with respect to both the purposes and resources of the National Research Council. relationship to the National Research Council is an insurance of The members of the technical committee selected to monitor this project and to review this objectivity; it maintains a full-time research correlation staff of report were chosen for recognized scholarly competence and with due consideration for the specialists in highway transportation matters to bring the findings of balance of disciplines appropriate to the project. The opinions and conclusions expressed research directly to those who are in a position to use them. or implied are those of the research agency that performed the research, and, while they have been accepted as appropriate by the technical committee, they are not necessarily those of The program is developed on the basis of research needs identified the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, the American by chief administrators of the highway and transportation departments Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, or the Federal Highway and by committees of AASHTO. Each year, specific areas of research Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation. needs to be included in the program are proposed to the National Each report is reviewed and accepted for publication by the technical committee according Research Council and the Board by the American Association of State to procedures established and monitored by the Transportation Research Board Executive Committee and the Governing Board of the National Research Council. Highway and Transportation Officials. Research projects to fulfill these needs are defined by the Board, and qualified research agencies are The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research Council, the Federal Highway Administration, the American Association of State Highway selected from those that have submitted proposals. Administration and and Transportation Officials, and the individual states participating in the National surveillance of research contracts are the responsibilities of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade Research Council and the Transportation Research Board. or manufacturers' names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of this report. The needs for highway research are many, and the National Cooperative Highway Research Program can make significant contributions to the solution of highway transportation problems of mutual concern to many responsible groups. The program, however, is intended to complement rather than to substitute for or duplicate other highway research programs. Published reports of the NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from: Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet at: http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore Printed in the United States of America

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COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAMS CRP STAFF FOR NCHRP REPORT 606 Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Crawford F. Jencks, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Kimberly M. Fisher, Senior Program Officer Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Margaret B. Hagood, Editor NCHRP PROJECT 08-43 PANEL Field of Transportation Planning--Area of Forecasting Mark Berndt, Wilbur Smith Associates, St. Paul, MN William W. Delaney, Capitola, CA Kathleen L. Hancock, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Alexandria, VA Robert G. McCullough, Florida DOT, Tallahassee, FL Richard A. Nordahl, California DOT, Sacramento, CA John Okamoto, Port of Seattle, Seattle, WA Jeffrey H. Smith, Maryland State Highway Administration, Baltimore, MD Charlie T. Sullivan, Wilbur Smith Associates, Austin, TX Thomas P. Thatcher, Thatcher Professional Planning and Consulting, Stockton, NJ Robert A. Gorman, FHWA Liaison (Retired) Kimberly Fisher, TRB Liaison Thomas Palmerlee, TRB Liaison

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FOREWORD By Kimberly M. Fisher Staff Officer Transportation Research Board Federal planning legislation and regulations now mandate that state departments of trans- portation and metropolitan planning organizations consider the needs of freight when plan- ning and programming transportation investments. While there are standard techniques used to forecast the movement of people, less attention has been paid to forecasting freight movements, and there are consequently fewer standardized techniques that state and local agencies can adapt to their local situation. This Toolkit is designed to provide transportation planners with the information they need to prepare forecasts of freight transportation by highlighting techniques successfully developed by state agencies across the country. According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, the volume of freight moved within the United States has nearly doubled the rate of population increase over the past three decades. In those years, this volume has also outstripped the annualized rates of growth in disposable income and gross national product. The 2002 Commodity Flow Survey, by the Bureau of the Census, found that more than 19 billion tons of freight, valued at almost $13 trillion, moves annually over the nation's transportation system. In calendar year 2002, an average of 12 billion ton-miles of goods moved in the United States each day. All of this activity places growing pressure on each state's transportation infrastructure, leading to many costly traffic congestion problems--notably around major airports, seaports, and truck-rail transfer terminals. Significant changes have also been taking place in the spatial patterns and commodity mix of both domestic and international trade. Modern logistic practices and the rapid growth in e-commerce are now also influencing these patterns. Analytic methods are needed to help states to (a) determine where and how much cur- rent freight activity is taking place within and across their borders, (b) forecast future mode- and commodity-specific freight movement patterns, and (c) establish and apply suitable performance measures to evaluate their effectiveness in accommodating freight demand. These tools and methodologies for individual states need to be upwardly compatible so that they can be assembled to form multistate, sub-state, and regional data and information snapshots. Currently, there exist numerous gaps in the data needed to estimate the neces- sary origin-to-destination (O-D) freight movements. This gap is especially apparent in the case of truck-only, as well as truck-inclusive, freight movements. Collection and analysis methods are needed to fill these data gaps, to use the resulting O-D volumes to estimate freight flows on specific sections of a state's multimodal transportation network, and to forecast O-D freight movement patterns. These patterns include freight movements both within and between metropolitan areas and crossing state borders. The objective of this Toolkit is to provide an analytical framework for forecasting freight movements at the state level. This framework includes (1) a Toolkit of data collection tech-

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niques, analytical procedures, and computer models; (2) management approaches and decision-making procedures; and (3) performance evaluation methods that can guide states in establishing priorities for improving their transportation systems to best accommodate increased freight demand. The Toolkit provides options, along with strengths and weak- nesses of techniques for addressing freight-forecasting applications that states face, such as: Demand for statewide multimodal freight movement, Regional or multijurisdictional freight movement, Specific single-mode or multimode corridor analyses, and Analyses of projected demand at specific facilities (e.g., ports, hubs, or terminals). Transportation planners, project programmers, and the leadership in state and local transportation agencies will find this report of significant use. The Toolkit will guide the transportation professionals through defining the problem, collecting data, forecasting freight, and developing freight performance measures for their agency. Ten case studies illustrate the techniques in a variety of local settings.

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CONTENTS 1 Chapter 1 Introduction 3 Chapter 2 Background and Definitions 3 2.1 Definition of Freight 3 2.2 Statewide Freight Forecasting 4 2.3 Freight Terminology 5 Chapter 3 State Needs 5 3.1 Freight Policy Needs 8 3.2 Available Methods 9 Chapter 4 Forecasting Components 9 4.1 Direct Factoring 10 4.2 Trip Generation 11 4.3 Trip Distribution 12 4.4 Mode Split 14 4.5 Traffic Assignment 15 4.6 Economic/Land Use Modeling 16 Chapter 5 Data Sources 16 5.1 Model Development 20 5.2 Flow Conversion 23 5.3 Network Data 24 5.4 Forecasting Data 25 5.5 Validation Data 26 5.6 Classification Schemes 27 Chapter 6 Forecasting Models 27 6.1 The Direct Facility Flow Factoring Method 29 6.2 The Origin-Destination Factoring Method 31 6.3 The Truck Model 32 6.4 The Four-Step Commodity Model 33 6.5 The Economic Activity Model 35 Chapter 7 Performance Measures 35 7.1 Introduction 35 7.2 Performance Measures for States' Primary Needs 36 7.3 Tools for Measuring Performance 36 7.4 Recommended Toolkit Performance Measures 42 Chapter 8 Case Studies 42 8.1 Development of a Forecasting Model Template 44 8.2 Case Study--Minnesota Trunk Highway 10 Truck Trip Forecasting Model 47 8.3 Case Study--The Heavy Truck Freight Model for Florida Ports 54 8.4 Case Study--Ohio Interim Freight Model

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63 8.5 Case Study--Freight Analysis Framework 73 8.6 Case Study--New Jersey Statewide Model Truck Trip Table Update Project 82 8.7 Case Study--SCAG Heavy-Duty Truck Model 92 8.8 Case Study--Indiana Commodity Transport Model 101 8.9 Case Study--Florida Intermodal Statewide Highway Freight Model (FISHFM) 110 8.10 Case Study--Cross-Cascades Corridor Analysis Project 119 8.11 Case Study--Oregon Statewide Passenger and Freight Forecasting Model 130 References 131 Bibliography 134 Acronyms 136 Appendix A Commodity Classifications 146 Appendix B Tool Components and Forecastable Performance Measures 152 Appendix C References with Mode Components