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NATIONAL
NCHRP
REPORT 606
COOPERATIVE
HIGHWAY
RESEARCH
PROGRAM
Forecasting Statewide
Freight Toolkit
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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2008 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE*
OFFICERS
CHAIR: Debra L. Miller, Secretary, Kansas DOT, Topeka
VICE CHAIR: Adib K. Kanafani, Cahill Professor of Civil Engineering, University of California, Berkeley
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: Robert E. Skinner, Jr., Transportation Research Board
MEMBERS
J. Barry Barker, Executive Director, Transit Authority of River City, Louisville, KY
Allen D. Biehler, Secretary, Pennsylvania DOT, Harrisburg
John D. Bowe, President, Americas Region, APL Limited, Oakland, CA
Larry L. Brown, Sr., Executive Director, Mississippi DOT, Jackson
Deborah H. Butler, Executive Vice President, Planning, and CIO, Norfolk Southern Corporation, Norfolk, VA
William A.V. Clark, Professor, Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles
David S. Ekern, Commissioner, Virginia DOT, Richmond
Nicholas J. Garber, Henry L. Kinnier Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville
Jeffrey W. Hamiel, Executive Director, Metropolitan Airports Commission, Minneapolis, MN
Edward A. (Ned) Helme, President, Center for Clean Air Policy, Washington, DC
Will Kempton, Director, California DOT, Sacramento
Susan Martinovich, Director, Nevada DOT, Carson City
Michael D. Meyer, Professor, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
Michael R. Morris, Director of Transportation, North Central Texas Council of Governments, Arlington
Neil J. Pedersen, Administrator, Maryland State Highway Administration, Baltimore
Pete K. Rahn, Director, Missouri DOT, Jefferson City
Sandra Rosenbloom, Professor of Planning, University of Arizona, Tucson
Tracy L. Rosser, Vice President, Corporate Traffic, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., Bentonville, AR
Rosa Clausell Rountree, Executive Director, Georgia State Road and Tollway Authority, Atlanta
Henry G. (Gerry) Schwartz, Jr., Chairman (retired), Jacobs/Sverdrup Civil, Inc., St. Louis, MO
C. Michael Walton, Ernest H. Cockrell Centennial Chair in Engineering, University of Texas, Austin
Linda S. Watson, CEO, LYNXCentral Florida Regional Transportation Authority, Orlando
Steve Williams, Chairman and CEO, Maverick Transportation, Inc., Little Rock, AR
EX OFFICIO MEMBERS
Thad Allen (Adm., U.S. Coast Guard), Commandant, U.S. Coast Guard, Washington, DC
Joseph H. Boardman, Federal Railroad Administrator, U.S.DOT
Rebecca M. Brewster, President and COO, American Transportation Research Institute, Smyrna, GA
Paul R. Brubaker, Research and Innovative Technology Administrator, U.S.DOT
George Bugliarello, Chancellor, Polytechnic University of New York, Brooklyn, and Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Engineering,
Washington, DC
J. Richard Capka, Federal Highway Administrator, U.S.DOT
Sean T. Connaughton, Maritime Administrator, U.S.DOT
LeRoy Gishi, Chief, Division of Transportation, Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington, DC
Edward R. Hamberger, President and CEO, Association of American Railroads, Washington, DC
John H. Hill, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administrator, U.S.DOT
John C. Horsley, Executive Director, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, DC
Carl T. Johnson, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administrator, U.S.DOT
J. Edward Johnson, Director, Applied Science Directorate, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, John C. Stennis Space Center, MS
William W. Millar, President, American Public Transportation Association, Washington, DC
Nicole R. Nason, National Highway Traffic Safety Administrator, U.S.DOT
Jeffrey N. Shane, Under Secretary for Policy, U.S.DOT
James S. Simpson, Federal Transit Administrator, U.S.DOT
Robert A. Sturgell, Acting Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration, U.S.DOT
Robert L. Van Antwerp (Lt. Gen., U.S. Army), Chief of Engineers and Commanding General, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, DC
*Membership as of January 2008.
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NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM
NCHRP REPORT 606
Forecasting Statewide
Freight Toolkit
Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
CAMBRIDGE, MA
Global Insight (formerly Reebie Associates)
LEXINGTON, MA
Harry Cohen
WASHINGTON, DC
Alan Horowitz
MILWAUKEE, WI
Ram Pendyala
PHOENIX, AZ
Subject Areas
Planning and Administration · Rail · Freight Transportation
Research sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials
in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD
WASHINGTON, D.C.
2008
www.TRB.org
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NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY NCHRP REPORT 606
RESEARCH PROGRAM
Systematic, well-designed research provides the most effective Project 08-43
approach to the solution of many problems facing highway ISSN 0077-5614
administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local ISBN: 978-0-309-09924-0
interest and can best be studied by highway departments individually Library of Congress Control Number 2008921911
or in cooperation with their state universities and others. However, the © 2008 Transportation Research Board
accelerating growth of highway transportation develops increasingly
complex problems of wide interest to highway authorities. These
problems are best studied through a coordinated program of COPYRIGHT PERMISSION
cooperative research.
Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining
In recognition of these needs, the highway administrators of the written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously
American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials published or copyrighted material used herein.
initiated in 1962 an objective national highway research program Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this
employing modern scientific techniques. This program is supported on publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the
understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA,
a continuing basis by funds from participating member states of the
FMCSA, FTA, or Transit Development Corporation endorsement of a particular product,
Association and it receives the full cooperation and support of the method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for
Federal Highway Administration, United States Department of educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of
any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission
Transportation.
from CRP.
The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies was
requested by the Association to administer the research program
because of the Board's recognized objectivity and understanding of
NOTICE
modern research practices. The Board is uniquely suited for this
purpose as it maintains an extensive committee structure from which The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the National Cooperative Highway
Research Program conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of
authorities on any highway transportation subject may be drawn; it the Governing Board of the National Research Council. Such approval reflects the
possesses avenues of communications and cooperation with federal, Governing Board's judgment that the program concerned is of national importance and
state and local governmental agencies, universities, and industry; its appropriate with respect to both the purposes and resources of the National Research
Council.
relationship to the National Research Council is an insurance of
The members of the technical committee selected to monitor this project and to review this
objectivity; it maintains a full-time research correlation staff of
report were chosen for recognized scholarly competence and with due consideration for the
specialists in highway transportation matters to bring the findings of balance of disciplines appropriate to the project. The opinions and conclusions expressed
research directly to those who are in a position to use them. or implied are those of the research agency that performed the research, and, while they have
been accepted as appropriate by the technical committee, they are not necessarily those of
The program is developed on the basis of research needs identified
the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, the American
by chief administrators of the highway and transportation departments Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, or the Federal Highway
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Highway and Transportation Officials. Research projects to fulfill these
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surveillance of research contracts are the responsibilities of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade
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The needs for highway research are many, and the National
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mutual concern to many responsible groups. The program, however, is
intended to complement rather than to substitute for or duplicate other
highway research programs.
Published reports of the
NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM
are available from:
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Business Office
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001
and can be ordered through the Internet at:
http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore
Printed in the United States of America
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COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAMS
CRP STAFF FOR NCHRP REPORT 606
Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs
Crawford F. Jencks, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs
Kimberly M. Fisher, Senior Program Officer
Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications
Margaret B. Hagood, Editor
NCHRP PROJECT 08-43 PANEL
Field of Transportation Planning--Area of Forecasting
Mark Berndt, Wilbur Smith Associates, St. Paul, MN
William W. Delaney, Capitola, CA
Kathleen L. Hancock, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Alexandria, VA
Robert G. McCullough, Florida DOT, Tallahassee, FL
Richard A. Nordahl, California DOT, Sacramento, CA
John Okamoto, Port of Seattle, Seattle, WA
Jeffrey H. Smith, Maryland State Highway Administration, Baltimore, MD
Charlie T. Sullivan, Wilbur Smith Associates, Austin, TX
Thomas P. Thatcher, Thatcher Professional Planning and Consulting, Stockton, NJ
Robert A. Gorman, FHWA Liaison (Retired)
Kimberly Fisher, TRB Liaison
Thomas Palmerlee, TRB Liaison
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FOREWORD
By Kimberly M. Fisher
Staff Officer
Transportation Research Board
Federal planning legislation and regulations now mandate that state departments of trans-
portation and metropolitan planning organizations consider the needs of freight when plan-
ning and programming transportation investments. While there are standard techniques
used to forecast the movement of people, less attention has been paid to forecasting freight
movements, and there are consequently fewer standardized techniques that state and local
agencies can adapt to their local situation. This Toolkit is designed to provide transportation
planners with the information they need to prepare forecasts of freight transportation by
highlighting techniques successfully developed by state agencies across the country.
According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, the volume of freight moved within
the United States has nearly doubled the rate of population increase over the past three
decades. In those years, this volume has also outstripped the annualized rates of growth in
disposable income and gross national product. The 2002 Commodity Flow Survey, by the
Bureau of the Census, found that more than 19 billion tons of freight, valued at almost
$13 trillion, moves annually over the nation's transportation system. In calendar year 2002,
an average of 12 billion ton-miles of goods moved in the United States each day. All of this
activity places growing pressure on each state's transportation infrastructure, leading to
many costly traffic congestion problems--notably around major airports, seaports, and
truck-rail transfer terminals. Significant changes have also been taking place in the spatial
patterns and commodity mix of both domestic and international trade. Modern logistic
practices and the rapid growth in e-commerce are now also influencing these patterns.
Analytic methods are needed to help states to (a) determine where and how much cur-
rent freight activity is taking place within and across their borders, (b) forecast future mode-
and commodity-specific freight movement patterns, and (c) establish and apply suitable
performance measures to evaluate their effectiveness in accommodating freight demand.
These tools and methodologies for individual states need to be upwardly compatible so that
they can be assembled to form multistate, sub-state, and regional data and information
snapshots. Currently, there exist numerous gaps in the data needed to estimate the neces-
sary origin-to-destination (O-D) freight movements. This gap is especially apparent in the
case of truck-only, as well as truck-inclusive, freight movements. Collection and analysis
methods are needed to fill these data gaps, to use the resulting O-D volumes to estimate
freight flows on specific sections of a state's multimodal transportation network, and to
forecast O-D freight movement patterns. These patterns include freight movements both
within and between metropolitan areas and crossing state borders.
The objective of this Toolkit is to provide an analytical framework for forecasting freight
movements at the state level. This framework includes (1) a Toolkit of data collection tech-
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niques, analytical procedures, and computer models; (2) management approaches and
decision-making procedures; and (3) performance evaluation methods that can guide states
in establishing priorities for improving their transportation systems to best accommodate
increased freight demand. The Toolkit provides options, along with strengths and weak-
nesses of techniques for addressing freight-forecasting applications that states face, such as:
· Demand for statewide multimodal freight movement,
· Regional or multijurisdictional freight movement,
· Specific single-mode or multimode corridor analyses, and
· Analyses of projected demand at specific facilities (e.g., ports, hubs, or terminals).
Transportation planners, project programmers, and the leadership in state and local
transportation agencies will find this report of significant use. The Toolkit will guide the
transportation professionals through defining the problem, collecting data, forecasting
freight, and developing freight performance measures for their agency. Ten case studies
illustrate the techniques in a variety of local settings.
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CONTENTS
1 Chapter 1 Introduction
3 Chapter 2 Background and Definitions
3 2.1 Definition of Freight
3 2.2 Statewide Freight Forecasting
4 2.3 Freight Terminology
5 Chapter 3 State Needs
5 3.1 Freight Policy Needs
8 3.2 Available Methods
9 Chapter 4 Forecasting Components
9 4.1 Direct Factoring
10 4.2 Trip Generation
11 4.3 Trip Distribution
12 4.4 Mode Split
14 4.5 Traffic Assignment
15 4.6 Economic/Land Use Modeling
16 Chapter 5 Data Sources
16 5.1 Model Development
20 5.2 Flow Conversion
23 5.3 Network Data
24 5.4 Forecasting Data
25 5.5 Validation Data
26 5.6 Classification Schemes
27 Chapter 6 Forecasting Models
27 6.1 The Direct Facility Flow Factoring Method
29 6.2 The Origin-Destination Factoring Method
31 6.3 The Truck Model
32 6.4 The Four-Step Commodity Model
33 6.5 The Economic Activity Model
35 Chapter 7 Performance Measures
35 7.1 Introduction
35 7.2 Performance Measures for States' Primary Needs
36 7.3 Tools for Measuring Performance
36 7.4 Recommended Toolkit Performance Measures
42 Chapter 8 Case Studies
42 8.1 Development of a Forecasting Model Template
44 8.2 Case Study--Minnesota Trunk Highway 10 Truck Trip Forecasting Model
47 8.3 Case Study--The Heavy Truck Freight Model for Florida Ports
54 8.4 Case Study--Ohio Interim Freight Model
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63 8.5 Case Study--Freight Analysis Framework
73 8.6 Case Study--New Jersey Statewide Model Truck Trip Table
Update Project
82 8.7 Case Study--SCAG Heavy-Duty Truck Model
92 8.8 Case Study--Indiana Commodity Transport Model
101 8.9 Case Study--Florida Intermodal Statewide Highway Freight Model
(FISHFM)
110 8.10 Case Study--Cross-Cascades Corridor Analysis Project
119 8.11 Case Study--Oregon Statewide Passenger and Freight
Forecasting Model
130 References
131 Bibliography
134 Acronyms
136 Appendix A Commodity Classifications
146 Appendix B Tool Components and Forecastable Performance
Measures
152 Appendix C References with Mode Components
