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1 CHAPTER 1 Introduction The Federal Highway Administration estimates that more freight transportation industry is not the only reason for cre- than 15 billion tons of goods, worth more than $9 trillion, ating this Toolkit; because long-distance, intercity, freight were transported in the United States in 1998. This trans- transportation differs from local movement of goods, the lates into 310 pounds of freight moved daily for each U.S. Toolkit distinguishes between the techniques and factors resident.1 Much of this freight moves on facilities that state appropriate for use in statewide freight forecasting and those and local governments are charged with constructing, main- appropriate for short-distance intracity, transport. taining, operating, funding, or regulating. Indeed, since In 2001, nearly 11% of the $10 trillion U.S. gross domestic deregulation in the 1980s, the efficient, safe, and secure product was devoted to transportation-related goods and transport of freight has become as much a state and local services.2 In order to make investments in transportation that concern as a national concern. help control these costs, governments at all levels must Prior to the 1970s, nearly all interstate transportation was understand how their decisions affect the performance of the subject to Federal government economic regulation. Tariffs, freight transportation system. This Toolkit is intended to routes, frequencies, and other characteristics were decided in present the freight forecasting techniques as part of a frame- Washington, D.C., and consequently there was little need to work of different components that can be organized into dif- plan for or forecast changes in the interstate transportation ferent classes of models. In order to illustrate and explain of freight. With the passage of the Aviation Deregulation Act of those techniques, it presents case studies that show the appli- 1978, the Motor Carrier Act of 1980, the Staggers Rail Act cation of the classes of freight models and their components. of 1980, and the Ocean Shipping Act of 1984, the industry This report contains eight sections. Following this introduc- was deregulated. Today, supply and demand for freight trans- tion, Section 2.0 provides background and basic definitions portation is determined by the carriers themselves and by relating to freight and freight forecasting. Section 3.0 describes market forces; consequently, forecasts of freight movements state needs, as identified through a telephone and Internet sur- have became both necessary and more difficult to prepare. vey of nearly two dozen state departments of transportation. Recognizing this changing situation, Federal planning legis- Among the more commonly cited needs were project prioriti- lation and regulations now mandate that state departments of zation, modal diversion analysis, and statewide transportation transportation and metropolitan planning organizations give planning, including preparation of state multimodal trans- due consideration to the needs of freight when planning and portation plans and freight plans. programming transportation investments. However, while Section 4.0 introduces six basic freight model compo- state and local agencies have developed considerable capabili- nents: direct factoring, trip generation, trip distribution, ties for forecasting the movement of people, many have not mode split, traffic assignment, and economic/land use mod- devoted the same attention to the movement of goods. eling. Section 5.0 identifies data sources needed to develop and validate the freight models. Since it is assumed that read- ers are already familiar with general data sources used in Purpose transportation forecasting, this section focuses on sources This Toolkit is designed to provide transportation planners that are either unique to freight forecasting or applied to with the information they need to prepare forecasts of freight freight forecasting in unique ways. transportation by highlighting techniques successfully devel- Section 6.0 introduces the models themselves. This Toolkit oped by state agencies across the country. Deregulation of the focuses on five model classes: the flow factoring method, the

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2 Table 1.1. Freight tool case studies. State Tool Description California Southern California Association of A model for forecasting the movement of heavy Governments (SCAG) Heavy-Duty freight trucks as part of the comprehensive SCAG Truck Model travel demand model. Created principally to more accurately model the emissions from heavy trucks. Florida Heavy Truck Freight Model for A model developed to forecast the movement of Florida Ports trucks on roads near major seaports in Florida and to be used to support more detailed planning and analysis. Florida Intermodal Statewide Highway A model developed to model the generation, distri- Freight Model bution of all freight shipments and to use mode split to estimate truck trips and to then assign the freight truck trips to the highway system. Developed for inclusion as part of the Statewide Highway Model. Indiana Commodity Transport Model A research model developed to explore the feasibility of forecasting the generation distribution, mode split, and assignment of freight shipments. Minnesota Trunk Highway 10 Truck Trip A simplified modeling process to develop truck vol- Forecasting Model umes based on economic development forecasts as part of a corridor planning study. New Jersey Statewide Model Truck Trip Table A model for forecasting the movement of heavy Update Project freight trucks as part the comprehensive New Jersey statewide travel demand model. Developed as an improvement to an existing truck model. Ohio Interim Freight Model A study to develop freight truck forecasts based on an existing commodity flow table. Used to determine investment needs in Ohio. Oregon Statewide Passenger and Freight An integrated economic/land use and transportation Forecasting Model model that forecast the economic output of industries and the resulting flows on the transportation system. Developed to guide transportation investment and economic development in Oregon. Washington Cross-Cascades Corridor Analysis An integrated economic/land use and transportation Project model that forecast the economic output of industries and the resulting flows on the transportation system. Developed to guide transportation investment and economic development in the Cross-Cascades Corridor. National Federal Highway Administration A modeling framework that factored flows from an Freight Analysis Framework existing commodity flow table and used those tables to determine current and future freight flows on the nation's modal networks. Used to consider policy options to address the impacts of those freight flows. origin-destination factoring method, the truck model, the appropriate tool components for calculating the measures. four-step commodity model, and the economic activity The performance measures were assembled from numerous model. These model classes share many of the same compo- current sources, then matched to the 15 analytical and policy nents, differing from each other primarily in their organiza- areas. tion and use of these components. So that the users of the Toolkit may have the benefit of the Section 7.0 presents a comprehensive list of performance experiences of other planners and may see actual applications measures and tools needed to address the freight transporta- of techniques, Section 8.0 presents 10 case studies. Two case tion needs identified in the telephone and Internet survey. A studies have been chosen for each of the model classes defined total of 15 primary analytical and policy areas relating to in Section 6.0. As shown in Table 1.1, the case studies draw freight are presented in this section, screened for forecasta- widely from the various model components, and represent a bility and then further screened and matched according to variety of data source applications.