National Academies Press: OpenBook

Forecasting Statewide Freight Toolkit (2008)

Chapter: Chapter 1 - Introduction

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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 1 - Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2008. Forecasting Statewide Freight Toolkit. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14133.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 1 - Introduction." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2008. Forecasting Statewide Freight Toolkit. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14133.
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1The Federal Highway Administration estimates that more than 15 billion tons of goods, worth more than $9 trillion, were transported in the United States in 1998. This trans- lates into 310 pounds of freight moved daily for each U.S. resident.1 Much of this freight moves on facilities that state and local governments are charged with constructing, main- taining, operating, funding, or regulating. Indeed, since deregulation in the 1980s, the efficient, safe, and secure transport of freight has become as much a state and local concern as a national concern. Prior to the 1970s, nearly all interstate transportation was subject to Federal government economic regulation. Tariffs, routes, frequencies, and other characteristics were decided in Washington, D.C., and consequently there was little need to plan for or forecast changes in the interstate transportation of freight. With the passage of the Aviation Deregulation Act of 1978, the Motor Carrier Act of 1980, the Staggers Rail Act of 1980, and the Ocean Shipping Act of 1984, the industry was deregulated. Today, supply and demand for freight trans- portation is determined by the carriers themselves and by market forces; consequently, forecasts of freight movements have became both necessary and more difficult to prepare. Recognizing this changing situation, Federal planning legis- lation and regulations now mandate that state departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations give due consideration to the needs of freight when planning and programming transportation investments. However, while state and local agencies have developed considerable capabili- ties for forecasting the movement of people, many have not devoted the same attention to the movement of goods. Purpose This Toolkit is designed to provide transportation planners with the information they need to prepare forecasts of freight transportation by highlighting techniques successfully devel- oped by state agencies across the country. Deregulation of the freight transportation industry is not the only reason for cre- ating this Toolkit; because long-distance, intercity, freight transportation differs from local movement of goods, the Toolkit distinguishes between the techniques and factors appropriate for use in statewide freight forecasting and those appropriate for short-distance intracity, transport. In 2001, nearly 11% of the $10 trillion U.S. gross domestic product was devoted to transportation-related goods and services.2 In order to make investments in transportation that help control these costs, governments at all levels must understand how their decisions affect the performance of the freight transportation system. This Toolkit is intended to present the freight forecasting techniques as part of a frame- work of different components that can be organized into dif- ferent classes of models. In order to illustrate and explain those techniques, it presents case studies that show the appli- cation of the classes of freight models and their components. This report contains eight sections. Following this introduc- tion, Section 2.0 provides background and basic definitions relating to freight and freight forecasting. Section 3.0 describes state needs, as identified through a telephone and Internet sur- vey of nearly two dozen state departments of transportation. Among the more commonly cited needs were project prioriti- zation, modal diversion analysis, and statewide transportation planning, including preparation of state multimodal trans- portation plans and freight plans. Section 4.0 introduces six basic freight model compo- nents: direct factoring, trip generation, trip distribution, mode split, traffic assignment, and economic/land use mod- eling. Section 5.0 identifies data sources needed to develop and validate the freight models. Since it is assumed that read- ers are already familiar with general data sources used in transportation forecasting, this section focuses on sources that are either unique to freight forecasting or applied to freight forecasting in unique ways. Section 6.0 introduces the models themselves. This Toolkit focuses on five model classes: the flow factoring method, the C H A P T E R 1 Introduction

origin-destination factoring method, the truck model, the four-step commodity model, and the economic activity model. These model classes share many of the same compo- nents, differing from each other primarily in their organiza- tion and use of these components. Section 7.0 presents a comprehensive list of performance measures and tools needed to address the freight transporta- tion needs identified in the telephone and Internet survey. A total of 15 primary analytical and policy areas relating to freight are presented in this section, screened for forecasta- bility and then further screened and matched according to 2 appropriate tool components for calculating the measures. The performance measures were assembled from numerous current sources, then matched to the 15 analytical and policy areas. So that the users of the Toolkit may have the benefit of the experiences of other planners and may see actual applications of techniques, Section 8.0 presents 10 case studies. Two case studies have been chosen for each of the model classes defined in Section 6.0. As shown in Table 1.1, the case studies draw widely from the various model components, and represent a variety of data source applications. State Tool Description California Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) Heavy-Duty Truck Model A model for forecasting the movement of heavy freight trucks as part of the comprehensive SCAG travel demand model. Created principally to more accurately model the emissions from heavy trucks. Florida Heavy Truck Freight Model for Florida Ports A model developed to forecast the movement of trucks on roads near major seaports in Florida and to be used to support more detailed planning and analysis. Florida Intermodal Statewide Highway Freight Model A model developed to model the generation, distri- bution of all freight shipments and to use mode split to estimate truck trips and to then assign the freight truck trips to the highway system. Developed for inclusion as part of the Statewide Highway Model. Indiana Commodity Transport Model A research model developed to explore the feasibility of forecasting the generation distribution, mode split, and assignment of freight shipments. Minnesota Trunk Highway 10 Truck Trip Forecasting Model A simplified modeling process to develop truck vol- umes based on economic development forecasts as part of a corridor planning study. New Jersey Statewide Model Truck Trip Table Update Project A model for forecasting the movement of heavy freight trucks as part the comprehensive New Jersey statewide travel demand model. Developed as an improvement to an existing truck model. Ohio Interim Freight Model A study to develop freight truck forecasts based on an existing commodity flow table. Used to determine investment needs in Ohio. Oregon Statewide Passenger and Freight Forecasting Model An integrated economic/land use and transportation model that forecast the economic output of industries and the resulting flows on the transportation system. Developed to guide transportation investment and economic development in Oregon. Washington Cross-Cascades Corridor Analysis Project An integrated economic/land use and transportation model that forecast the economic output of industries and the resulting flows on the transportation system. Developed to guide transportation investment and economic development in the Cross-Cascades Corridor. National Federal Highway Administration Freight Analysis Framework A modeling framework that factored flows from an existing commodity flow table and used those tables to determine current and future freight flows on the nation’s modal networks. Used to consider policy options to address the impacts of those freight flows. Table 1.1. Freight tool case studies.

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TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 606: Forecasting Statewide Freight Toolkit explores an analytical framework for forecasting freight movements at the state level.

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