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25 from private vendors such as Dun & Bradstreet, InfoUSA, as shown in Figure 5.5, the employment data for industry 113 Wood & Poole, and IMPLAN. These vendors also provide in County 12001 is suppressed but might be estimated at 2.5 employment data in the more commonly used SIC system employees from the one firm with one to five employees, and provide forecasts not available from public agencies. seven employees from the one firm with five to nine employ- ees, 14.5 employees from each of the two firms with 10 to 19 employees. This estimated total of 38.5 employees (2.5 + 7 + County Business Patterns 14.5 + 14.5) agrees closely with the reported total of 39 em- County Business Patterns is an annual series published by ployees. Since the County Business Patterns data are typically the U.S. Census Bureau that provides subnational economic applied to already available TAZ data at a more aggregated data by industry. The series is useful for studying the eco- scale, the resulting percentages by detailed industry are nomic activity of small areas, analyzing economic changes generally suitable for forecasting. over time, and providing a benchmark for statistical series, County Business Patterns data are available from the U.S surveys, and databases between economic censuses. Busi- Census Bureau at http://www.census.gov/epcd/cbp/view/ nesses use the data for analyzing market potential, measuring cbpview.html. the effectiveness of sales and advertising programs, setting sales quotas, and developing budgets. Government agencies 5.5 Validation Data use the data for administration and planning. County Business Patterns covers most economic activity in In most cases validation data for freight forecasting is lim- the United States. The series excludes data on self-employed ited to observed trucks, which include both freight and non- individuals, employees of private households, railroad em- freight purposes. Thus, truck classification counts and weight ployees, agricultural production employees, and most gov- and motion counts prepared by states can be used in validat- ernment employees. Beginning in 1998, data was tabulated ing the truck portion of freight models only in combination by industry as defined in the NAICS. Data for 1997 and with a multi-class assignment of all vehicles. earlier years is based on SIC codes, described in Section 5.6. Tolled facilities with electronic data collection mechanisms As shown in Figure 5.5, the County Business Patterns data also can provide a way to validate freight forecasts, since trucks are available for all counties by three-digit NAICS code. Typ- could theoretically be tracked on an individual basis and ically freight forecasting models need only two-digit data. extensive data about truck movements (including entry-exit Additionally where industrial employment is not available for points) might be available. This type of data has been used to a given county, it may be possible to estimate that data from validate truck models on a study-by-study basis but is rarely the establishments in the employment ranges. For example, used to validate a statewide model because tolled highways Figure 5.5. County business patterns employment data.