Forecasting Statewide Freight Toolkit (2008)

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5As part of the development of the Toolkit, a survey of state transportation departments was conducted in March 2003 to identify the need for freight forecasting tools. The objectives of the survey were to: • Identify policy and planning needs for freight analysis and forecasting; and • Review current applications of the freight forecasting tools. This section examines the survey responses through discus- sion of the policy and analytical needs identified by the states, current application of freight tools, the needs not being addressed by these tools, and individual state responses. Table 3.1 shows the state departments of transportation (DOT) that were interviewed as part of the survey. 3.1 Freight Policy Needs As shown in Table 3.2, the survey responses revealed a wide range of state needs for analytical freight tools. These needs are discussed in greater detail below. State Transportation Planning State transportation planning, including preparation of state multimodal transportation plans and freight plans, is a basic function common to most states. Most see the need for improved freight elements within their multimodal statewide transportation plans. Some have initiated state freight plans to more specifically address freight issues within their overall state multimodal planning processes. Project Prioritization, Statewide Transportation Improvement Program Development Many states identified the need for tools to help set prior- ities among freight projects and to develop specific inputs to the statewide transportation improvement program. Some states mentioned the desire to identify short-term freight improvement priorities in cooperation with freight stake- holders to demonstrate short-term benefits and keep freight stakeholders engaged in longer-term capital plans and proj- ect prioritization for freight. Modal Diversion Analysis A few states have conducted modal diversion analysis between truck and rail and more see the need to do so. Some states feel that major highway corridors will be unable to han- dle the forecast truck travel and wish to analyze the potential for the rail system to accommodate a greater share of the growth. Pavement, Bridge, and Safety Management A few states mentioned the need for truck data and tools to support pavement, bridge, and safety management systems. Policy and Economic Development Studies Many ad hoc freight policy requests as well as more exten- sive policy studies are often required from departmental offi- cials, the governor’s office, or the legislature. These special analyses often are tied to economic development issues and sometimes to state economic models maintained by the state economic development agency. Needs and Economic Analysis A few states mentioned the use of freight forecasting tools for needs and economic analysis. Economic needs outputs have been fed into economic models to determine state or regional economic development effects in various industries. C H A P T E R 3 State Needs

Commodity Flow Analysis Some states identified the need for commodity flow analy- sis to better understand the types, values, and economic im- portance of freight movement to, from, and within the state. This applies to general policy and planning efforts to improve freight knowledge, support state economic development, support specialized freight analyses, and prepare briefings and presentations to DOT management, the legislature, and the governor’s office. Rail Planning Many states see a growing need for rail planning. States are concerned that, without adequate rail capacity, more freight will shift to trucks, thus overburdening already congested highway corridors. States believe that short-line railroads should play a greater role in reducing wear on highways and improving access to service provided by major railroads. Trade Corridor and Border Planning Implementation of the North American Free Trade Agree- ment (NAFTA) and the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21) in the 1990s has generated considerable interest in multistate border and corridors planning. Several states have already developed state strategic corridor efforts. 6 Operational Needs Operational needs include a broad array of operational issues. Topics mentioned were the importance of focusing on short-term operational improvements for freight, the possi- bility of special truck lanes, rest area truck parking needs, hazmat and other truck routings, security issues related to goods movement, the need for improved truck accident data and analysis, truck size and weight, and motor carrier hours- of-service changes. Project Development or Design Needs Many states mentioned needs for freight forecast to sup- port project-level detail for development or design. Terminal Access Planning States with major ports such as New Jersey and South Carolina identified port access planning as a major priority for freight models and analysis. New Jersey specifically is using a refined version of its statewide freight model for the purposes of access planning at the Port of New York/New Jersey. More detailed network, zone, and truck data were required for the subregion around the port. Some Midwest- ern states identified grain movement and grain elevator access as an issue for potential application of freight tools. Survey State Location in United States Population Sizea Ports International Land Borders Phone California Southwest Large Pacific Southern Colorado Mountain Medium None Florida Southeast Large Atlantic; Gulf Maine Northeast Small Atlantic Northern Maryland Northeast Medium Atlantic New Jersey Northeast Medium Atlantic Texas Southwest Large Gulf Southern Washington Northwest Medium Pacific, River Northern Wisconsin Midwest Medium Great Lakes; River E-mail/Internet Arkansas South Small River Iowa Midwest Small River Idaho Mountain Small None Northern Kansas Midwest Small River Minnesota Midwest Medium Great Lakes; River Northern Montana Mountain Small None Northern North Dakota Midwest Small River Northern Oklahoma Southwest Small None Pennsylvania Northeast Medium Great Lakes; River South Carolina Southeast Medium Atlantic South Dakota Midwest Small River Tennessee South Medium River Virginia Southeast Medium Atlantic Vermont Northeast Small None Northern a Population size is defined here as follows: Small state = under 4 million; Medium state = between 4 million and 15 million; Large state = over 15 million. Table 3.1. State departments of transportation participating in the survey.

Truck Flow Analysis and Forecasting Truck flow models are used for basic highway planning, for special generator analysis, corridor analysis, project develop- ment, and as input to air quality model analysis. Florida, Texas, and Vermont have developed statewide truck models and Washington is in the process of doing so. Statewide mod- els are virtually nonexistent for the other modes and few states have them under development, although several states mentioned a future need. Performance Measurement/Program Evaluation According to the survey, freight performance measurement is a relatively new area for state DOTs. Minnesota is one of the few states that has developed any freight-specific performance measures. Current models provide very little output useful to performance measurement. Measures such as freight vehicle travel time and delay, reliability, cost, freight corridor condi- tion and performance, intermodal connector condition and performance, and customer satisfaction have been suggested as measures but are relatively undeveloped as compared to passenger systems. One interesting FHWA project involves testing measures of freight travel time, delay, and reliability in freight-significant corridors using satellite tracking devices on trucks. This is an example of public/private cooperation to collect freight performance data while respecting important privacy issues. Bottleneck Analysis A few states mentioned the potential use of tools for freight bottleneck analysis, although there has been little 7 Need Response Frequency State transportation planning, including preparation of state multimodal transportation plans and/or freight plans High Project prioritization, statewide transportation improvement program (STIP) development High Modal diversion analysis High Pavement, bridge, and safety management Medium Policy and economic studies for governor, legislature, commission, etc. Medium Needs analysis Medium Commodity flow analysis to understand types, values, and economic importance of freight movement to, from, and within the state Medium Rail planning Medium Trade corridor and border planning Medium Operational needs Medium Project development or design needs; e.g., forecasts and loadings Medium Terminal access planning; forecasting truck loadings for highway access facilities to ports, other intermodal terminals, and grain or other heavy commodity terminals Medium Truck flow analysis and forecasting Medium Performance measurement/program evaluation Medium Bottleneck analysis Medium Note: States listed multiple primary freight policy and analytical needs. Table 3.2. States’ primary freight policy and analytical needs.

such application to date. Oregon recently completed a study of the Interstate 5 corridor that identified and analyzed a bottleneck at the Columbia River crossing. Ohio plans to conduct a freight bottleneck analysis in the future. 3.2 Available Methods The survey revealed that existing methods, which prima- rily produce facility-level forecasts of freight flows, are gener- ally able to respond to changes in the transportation system and meet the state needs identified in Table 3.2. The degree to which the five classes of freight models described in Section 5.0 meet these needs shown as a primary or secondary output or function based on professional judgment, is shown in Table 3.3. Four policy needs were identified as currently unmet by existing freight methods: • Policy Studies – Owing to the difficulty of relating trans- portation investments to quality of life or economic devel- opment policy goals; • Trade Corridor and Border Planning – Owing to the sim- plified treatment within the models of freight flows beyond a state’s border, or more commonly the U.S. border; • Operations, Safety, Security, Truck Size, and Weight Issues – Owing to the absence of connections of the freight models to microsimulation tools (a shortcoming shared with traditional passenger travel demand forecasting mod- els); and • Performance Measurement/Program Evaluation – Owing both to a lack of information on appropriate freight perfor- mance measures (which will be addressed in Section 7.0) and to the absence of techniques to directly utilize the outputs of freight models to calculate these measures. 8 Type of Toola Policy and Analytical Needs Facility Flow Factor O-D Factor Models Truck Models Commodity Models Economic- Based Models 1 State transportation planning – P P P P 2 Project prioritization, STIP development P S P P P 3 Modal diversion analysis – S – P P 4 Pavement, bridge, and safety management P S P P P 5 Policy studies – – – – – 6 Needs analysis P S P P P 7 Commodity flow analyses – P – P P 8 Rail planning – S – P P 9 Trade corridor and border planning – – – – – 10 Operations, safety, security, truck size and weight issues, etc. – – – – – 11 Project development or design needs; e.g., forecasts and loadings P S S S S 12 Terminal access planning – S – S P 13 Truck flow analysis and forecasting – S P P P 14 Performance measurement/ program evaluation – – – – – 15 Bottleneck analysis – – S S S a P, primary; S, secondary. Table 3.3. State needs versus model classes.