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S U M M A R Y The objective of this project was to develop an aircraft overrun and undershoot risk assessment approach, supported by scientific evidence and statistical theory, which provides step-by-step procedures and instructions for analysis of runway safety areas (RSA). Most aircraft accidents occur during the landing and takeoff phases of the flight and are likely to chal- lenge the existing RSA when the aircraft overruns or undershoots the paved area of runways. Currently, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) standards require runways to include an RSA: a graded and clean area surrounding the runway that âshould be capable, under normal (dry) conditions, of supporting airplanes without causing structural damage to air- planes or injury to their occupantsâ (FAA, 1989). The RSA improves the safety of airplanes that undershoot, overrun, or veer off the runway. The size of the RSA is dependent on the type and size of aircraft using each runway. Most aircraft accidents occur during the landing and take-off phases of the flight and are likely to challenge the existing RSA when the aircraft overruns or undershoots the paved area of runways. The risks of an aircraft overrunning or undershooting a runway depend on a number of factors related to the operation conditions, like the weather, the runway surface conditions, the distance required to land or takeoff, the presence of obstacles, the available runway distance, and the existing RSA dimensions, just to name a few. The possibility of human errors or aircraft system faults during the landing or takeoff phases of the flight also may contribute to the risks. Based on information gathered from overrun and undershoot accident and incident reports, risk models that consider relevant operational factors were developed to assess the likelihood and possible consequences for such accidents occurring on a runway subject to specific traffic and operation conditions. The approach uses historical flight data and the configuration of existing or planned RSAs to evaluate the risk for each operation and derive its probability dis- tribution that allows for quantifying the number of high risk operations at the airport. The major achievement of this research is to provide an innovative, rational and compre- hensive probabilistic approach to evaluate the level of risk for specific airport conditions that will allow the evaluation of alternatives when FAA recommended RSA configuration for an existing airport cannot be met. In addition, based on the existing level of risk, this approach will allow prioritizing financial resources to improve safety areas, achieving target levels of safety (TLS) and helping with safety management actions when high risk conditions arise. The results of the current study can be used by a broad range of civil aviation organiza- tions for risk assessment and cost-benefit studies of RSA improvements. These organizations may include Federal and State agencies, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), and international civil aviation authorities, as well as airport operators, airlines, civil aviation associations and institutions, universities, and consultants. Analysis of Aircraft Overruns and Undershoots for Runway Safety Areas 1
