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4 CHAPTER 2 Research Approach The work for this study was planned and structured as locate the events considered relevant for this study. For each follows: event, available reports and docket documents were obtained and were analyzed in search for the relevant information in- 1. Conduct a literature review and a functional hazard analy- cluded in the ACRP 4-01 database. sis (FHA) to improve the research team's understanding Data was collected and a database was created to save this of factors causing or contributing to aircraft overrun and information in an organized manner. When possible, gaps undershoot accidents, as well as to identify existing ap- observed for important parameters were obtained from proaches, procedures and sources of data to support the sources other than accident investigation agencies to com- development of risk models. plement the missing information. A statistical summary of 2. Collect historical accident and incident data from the the database was developed and is presented in this report. sources identified and selected, and develop a compre- Statistical tools and software were used to develop risk mod- hensive database of relevant accidents and incidents that els for frequency and location for each type of accident. These included the causal factors, contributing factors, and models incorporate historical flight and weather conditions operation conditions. to evaluate the level of risk exposure for a specific runway. A 3. Collect historical NOD to support the development of risk rational probabilistic approach was developed to integrate these models. models and to assess the probability of severe consequences for 4. Transform the data to enable comparisons, thus increasing these accidents. Finally, these models were integrated in proto- the pool of available information to develop risk models. type software to facilitate the analysis. 5. Develop three sets of risk models for LDOR, LDUS, and TOOR. Each set included: a frequency model for assessing Literature Review the likelihood of the event, a location model to estimate the probability the aircraft wreckage is located beyond a Risk assessments are utilized in many areas of aviation, given distance from the runway, and a consequence model from designing aircraft systems to establishing operational that integrates the previous frequency and location model standards and air traffic control rules. However, there is little to evaluate the probability of severe consequences. information available for assessing the risk of accidents 6. Develop of a probabilistic approach for the analysis of occurring near and at airports. Previous relevant studies for RSAs that incorporates the models developed in this study. airports can be broadly categorized into four areas: airport 7. Incorporate the approach and models in prototype soft- design, third-party risk, facility risk, and operational risk. ware to demonstrate the feasibility of the analysis approach To assess risk from an airport design standpoint, the U.K. developed. Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) Safety Regulation Group conducted a study on aircraft overrun risk, which guides air- The research plan followed the diagram depicted in Figure 1. ports on overrun risk assessment and provides advice on how The research team conducted a literature review followed by an to reduce it (CAA 1998). FHA to identify important parameters associated with overrun Another study under this category is AEA Technology's risk and undershoot events, and collected the necessary information assessment of airfield design rules (Eddowes et al. 2001). In to potentially use as independent variables in the risk models. this study, the authors reviewed design standards such as run- After those parameters were identified, the research team way length and reference codes, the runway end safety area screened the existing incident and accident databases to (RESA), separation distances between runways and taxiways,