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45 CHAPTER 5 Conclusions and Recommendations Current standards for RSAs are fairly rigid as they depend Major Achievements only on the type and size of aircraft using the runway. How- ever, numerous factors affect the operations that may lead to Development of Accident aircraft overruns and undershoots. In reality, operations are and Incident Database carried out under varying levels of safety. One of the accomplishments of this study was the devel- This study introduces a more comprehensive approach to opment of a comprehensive and organized database of acci- evaluate the degree of protection offered by a specific RSA dents and incidents. It includes the information gathered for and provides a risk-based assessment procedure that is ra- events involving aircraft LDORs, LDUSs, and TOORs. The tional and accounts for the variability of several risk factors database has editing and querying capabilities, and includes associated with aircraft overruns and undershoots. In addi- most parameters associated with the events, including air- tion this study provides risk models that are based on com- craft, airport, runway, operation, causal factors, and conse- prehensive evidence gathered from aircraft accidents and quence information used in the modeling process and can be incidents in the United States and other countries. Informa- used for future studies on airport safety. The database over- tion gathered from these events has been organized into a came the lack of depth of many accident databases developed database that may be used for future studies on airport risk in previous studies. assessment. Moreover, the basic approach utilized in this Analysis of the database revealed which anomalies are more research can be used to model other types of accidents frequent for each type of incident and the factors contributing occurring near airports, particularly for veer-off and takeoff to these events that would be desirable to incorporate in the and crash accidents. modeling process. Existing and new techniques were integrated into a practi- cal approach that uses NOD and normalization procedures. Incorporating NOD allows the user to account for different Frequent Anomalies in Aircraft Overruns and Undershoots aircraft flight risk exposure to assess the criticality of risk factors. Although with some limitations, the normalization When possible, the anomalies present during the occur- procedures increased the pool of comparable data for model rences were listed for each accident and incident included in the development. database. Most of these anomalies were taken from accident in- Despite some limitations on availability of information to vestigation report lists of causal and contributing factors; how- develop the models presented in this report, the models ever, other anomalies were listed, even when not included in the provide useful information and are integrated in a practical report if they were present during the occurrence. approach that will be useful for RSA planning and airport These anomalies were summarized by type of event and by safety management. Prototype software also was developed as severity of the event. The summary provided is useful to help part of this effort and serves to verify how the several models airport operators understand how these factors may lead to interact and determine risk probability distributions for an accidents, and it helped to identify those factors more fre- RSA subject to specific conditions. quently associated with aircraft overrun and undershoot