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47
Recommendations for Future Work are seldom reported. Therefore, it is important to develop
more comprehensive guidance related to the parameters
Improved Normal Operations Data required to improve risk modeling in the future. A list of sug-
Collecting normal operations data for parameters not cov- gested parameters to report is presented in Appendix N.
ered in this study would greatly help to improve the approach It should be noted that the availability of information on
developed in this study. Some of the factors, although con- accidents and incidents will only be helpful if these parame-
sidered important to modeling aircraft overrun and under- ters also are available in NOD.
shoot events, were not available from the NOD sources used
in this study. Of particular importance are: the runway criti- Development of Comprehensive Software
cality, the presence of tailwind and the runway friction dur-
ing the operation. Information on these factors could not be The prototype software developed for this project is fairly
obtained from the ETMSC and ASPM databases. simple and allows risk assessment of RSA using sample NOD
Incorporation of these factors would certainly improve the for different types of operation challenging a specific RSA.
predictive performance of the models and enhance the over- However, there are limitations, as resources constrained the
all accuracy of the risk assessment. Airline flight data recorder development of more comprehensive software. The risk as-
(FDR) information is especially relevant to obtain informa- sessment is performed for each type of accident separately
tion on runway criticality but access to such data will require and does not integrate the results to obtain the overall risk.
the cooperation of airlines and industry organizations. Moreover, the analysis system is capable of evaluating one
Even if data from FDRs are not available, the runway crit- simple and rectangular-shaped RSA or one existing obstacle.
icality factor may be incorporated in the models using the Although the analysis of other shapes and multiple obstacles
basic distances required for operation of each aircraft type. is possible, each comprises one single analysis that will re-
Although this improvement was identified in the course of quire integration to be performed manually.
this research, time and financial resources constraints did not Data normalization is still limited to one type of terrain.
allow the incorporation of such factors in the present models. Ideally, the analysis should include multiple sections with
different terrain conditions and possibly the capability to
evaluate risks when Engineered Material Arresting Systems
Availability of Information are available in the RSA.
for Accidents and Incidents
Development of Onboard Real-Time Models
Accident investigation and incident reports seldom contain
the comprehensive information required to improve model- One of the products of this research is a summary of fac-
ing. Even when there are standard forms and reports, many of tors or anomalies frequently present during aircraft overruns
the existing fields are not filled by the reporter. In addition, and undershoot. Some of these factors may greatly help pilots
some important parameters associated with events relevant to making good decisions about attempts to go around if the
this study are not available in the standard forms, or the in- information and risk processing capabilities are provided in
vestigator is not aware of their importance for modeling risks. real-time. If onboard computers could process real-time in-
Of particular interest is the runway distance required for land- formation, like approach speed, height above threshold,
ing or takeoff. Without such information or the parameters touchdown location, wind, and braking capability based on
(e.g., actual weight at crash) required to compute the distances actual aircraft deceleration to estimate remaining distance re-
of interest, it becomes difficult to assess the runway criticality. quired compared to distance available, an effective warning
Precise wreckage path, location exiting the runway, and system could be provided by aircraft manufacturers to advise
final wreckage location are rarely reported, even for accidents. pilots on the best emergency procedure (e.g., go around) to
Details on the type of obstacle, its dimensions and location prevent many undesirable events.
