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5 1 - Literature Review 2 - Functional Hazard Analysis 4 - Accident/Incident Data 3 - Identification of Collection and Database Relevant Events Development and Parameters 5 - Development of Approach for Risk Assessment of RSAs 7 - Development of 6 - Development of Software for Risk Risk Models Assessment Figure 1. Research plan. and obstacle limitation surfaces. It made concrete recommen- Safety Foundation measured accident risk based on, among dations for amending the International Civil Aviation Orga- other things, airport conditions (Khatwa and Helmreich, nization ( ICAO) Annex 14 safety areas to achieve a specific 1998). The ICAO's Collision Risk Model (CRM) calculates the target level of safety. collision probability of an operation with obstacles of known In the United States, studies also have been carried out to location and size during an Instrument Landing System (ILS) set criteria for the design of airport safety areas, particularly in approach. The model is used as a decision-making tool for California. Garbell (1988) pioneered the accident-potential developing safe approach procedures and for airport planning concept that led to the adoption of safety areas at a number (ICAO, 1980). of airports. A 1990 FAA study (David, 1990) compiled data One of the core reasons for oversimplification of accident regarding the location of commercial aircraft accidents rela- frequency modeling is the lack of data on exposure to various tive to the runway involved. The database was used to validate risk factors in normal operations. Without NOD, crash rates the RSA dimensions adopted by the FAA, and it is still effec- related to the presence of risk factors cannot be established. tive today. Closing this gap in research is a major achievement of the There are only a limited number of general methodologies work conducted by Loughborough University (Wong, 2007) and models for assessing an airport's third party risk (Piers, and ACRP 4-01. 1996). They are derived principally from studies commis- Appendix A of this report provides information collected sioned by the Dutch and British governments and their during the literature review on the procedures used and re- results are broadly similar (Ale and Piers, 2000). sources available to pilots during the landing and takeoff phases A third family of studies seeks to assess the risk that aircraft of the flight. Moreover, it describes how weather conditions, operations pose to specific developments near airports. runway conditions, faults, and human errors can affect the Examples of such studies include one for the U.S. Nuclear operations and lead overruns and undershoots. Regulatory Commission dealing with the safety of nuclear power plants, as well as a study for the Department of Energy Functional Hazard Analysis for assessing the risk of an aircraft crash into its nuclear weapons and material storage facilities (Eisenhut, 1973; NRC, An FHA is a formal and systematic process for the identi- 1981). A study on Salt Lake City International Airport inves- fication of hazards associated with an activity. The purpose of tigated the crash probability at a hospital, a school, and a the FHA in the context of this study was to determine rele- shopping mall nearby (Kimura et al., 1995). vant causal factors of overrun and undershoot accidents and The final group of risk assessment studies concentrates on hazards to aircraft associated with airport operations (e.g., flight operational safety and is not strictly considered airport landing, takeoff roll, and associated fault sequences) and the risk assessment. However, certain elements of these studies are physical design of airports. very relevant to airport risk analysis. For example, a study on The risk analysis approach utilized in this study is based pri- navigational aids established risk ratios for mostly airport fac- marily on a review of operational experience, in particular, tors that influence the risk of approach and landing accidents accident, incident, and normal operation data. The modeling (Enders et al., 1996). A related piece of research by the Flight approach adopted for the quantitative assessment of the risks