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TRANSPORTAT ION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2008 www.TRB.org A I R P O R T C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M ACRP REPORT 3 Research sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration Subject Areas Aviation ⢠Planning and Administration ⢠Safety and Human Performance Analysis of Aircraft Overruns and Undershoots for Runway Safety Areas Jim Hall Manuel Ayres Jr. Derek Wong Andrew Appleyard Mark Eddowes Hamid Shirazi Richard Speir David Pitfield Robert Caves Olga Selezneva Tara Puzin APPLIED RESEARCH ASSOCIATES, INC. Elkridge, MD
AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM Airports are vital national resources. They serve a key role in trans- portation of people and goods and in regional, national, and inter- national commerce. They are where the nationâs aviation system connects with other modes of transportation and where federal respon- sibility for managing and regulating air traffic operations intersects with the role of state and local governments that own and operate most airports. Research is necessary to solve common operating problems, to adapt appropriate new technologies from other industries, and to introduce innovations into the airport industry. The Airport Coopera- tive Research Program (ACRP) serves as one of the principal means by which the airport industry can develop innovative near-term solutions to meet demands placed on it. The need for ACRP was identified in TRB Special Report 272: Airport Research Needs: Cooperative Solutions in 2003, based on a study spon- sored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The ACRP carries out applied research on problems that are shared by airport operating agencies and are not being adequately addressed by existing federal research programs. It is modeled after the successful National Coopera- tive Highway Research Program and Transit Cooperative Research Pro- gram. The ACRP undertakes research and other technical activities in a variety of airport subject areas, including design, construction, mainte- nance, operations, safety, security, policy, planning, human resources, and administration. The ACRP provides a forum where airport opera- tors can cooperatively address common operational problems. The ACRP was authorized in December 2003 as part of the Vision 100-Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act. The primary partici- pants in the ACRP are (1) an independent governing board, the ACRP Oversight Committee (AOC), appointed by the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Transportation with representation from airport oper- ating agencies, other stakeholders, and relevant industry organizations such as the Airports Council International-North America (ACI-NA), the American Association of Airport Executives (AAAE), the National Association of State Aviation Officials (NASAO), and the Air Transport Association (ATA) as vital links to the airport community; (2) the TRB as program manager and secretariat for the governing board; and (3) the FAA as program sponsor. In October 2005, the FAA executed a contract with the National Academies formally initiating the program. The ACRP benefits from the cooperation and participation of airport professionals, air carriers, shippers, state and local government officials, equipment and service suppliers, other airport users, and research orga- nizations. Each of these participants has different interests and respon- sibilities, and each is an integral part of this cooperative research effort. Research problem statements for the ACRP are solicited periodically but may be submitted to the TRB by anyone at any time. It is the responsibility of the AOC to formulate the research program by iden- tifying the highest priority projects and defining funding levels and expected products. Once selected, each ACRP project is assigned to an expert panel, appointed by the TRB. Panels include experienced practitioners and research specialists; heavy emphasis is placed on including airport pro- fessionals, the intended users of the research products. The panels pre- pare project statements (requests for proposals), select contractors, and provide technical guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The process for developing research problem statements and selecting research agencies has been used by TRB in managing cooper- ative research programs since 1962. As in other TRB activities, ACRP project panels serve voluntarily without compensation. Primary emphasis is placed on disseminating ACRP results to the intended end-users of the research: airport operating agencies, service providers, and suppliers. The ACRP produces a series of research reports for use by airport operators, local agencies, the FAA, and other interested parties, and industry associations may arrange for work- shops, training aids, field visits, and other activities to ensure that results are implemented by airport-industry practitioners. ACRP REPORT 3 Project 04-01 ISSN 1935-9802 ISBN: 978-0-309-09939-4 Library of Congress Control Number 2008928726 © 2008 Transportation Research Board COPYRIGHT PERMISSION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB or FAA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the Airport Cooperative Research Program conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the Governing Board of the National Research Council. Such approval reflects the Governing Boardâs judgment that the project concerned is appropriate with respect to both the purposes and resources of the National Research Council. The members of the technical advisory panel selected to monitor this project and to review this report were chosen for recognized scholarly competence and with due consideration for the balance of disciplines appropriate to the project. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied are those of the research agency that performed the research, and while they have been accepted as appropriate by the technical panel, they are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the Federal Aviation Administration of the U.S. Department of Transportation. Each report is reviewed and accepted for publication by the technical panel according to procedures established and monitored by the Transportation Research Board Executive Committee and the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research Council, and the Federal Aviation Administration (sponsor of the Airport Cooperative Research Program) do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturersâ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the clarity and completeness of the project reporting. Published reports of the AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from: Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet at http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore Printed in the United States of America
CRP STAFF FOR ACRP REPORT 3 Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Crawford F. Jencks, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Michael R. Salamone, Senior Program Officer Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Margaret B. Hagood, Editor ACRP PROJECT 04-01 PANEL Field of Safety Thomas J. Yager, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Hampton, VA (Chair) Alan D. Black, Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, DFW Airport, TX John Eagerton, Alabama DOT, Montgomery, AL Jorge E. Panteli, Massachusetts Port Authority, East Boston, MA Paul J. Wiedefeld, Maryland Transit Administration, Baltimore, MD Xiaosong âSeanâ Xiao, Tetra Tech Inc., Pompano Beach, FL Ken Jacobs, FAA Liaison Richard Marchi, ACI-NA Liaison Christine Gerencher, TRB Liaison AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The research reported herein was performed under ACRP Project 4-01 by Applied Research Associates, Inc., Loughborough University (LU) and Engineering Safety & Risk Technology (ESR), from UK. ARA was the contractor for this study, with LU and ESR serving as sub-consultants. Dr. Jim Hall, P.E., Principal Engineer at ARA, was the Principal Investigator, Dr. Derek Wong, Avia- tion Analyst at Ascend Worldwide Limited (formerly Research Assistant at Loughborough University) was the co-Principal Investigator, and Dr. Manuel Ayres, Senior Engineer at ARA, served as Project Manager. The other authors of this report are: Mr. Andrew Appleyard (Loughborough University), Dr. Mark Eddowes (ESR Technology), Mr. Hamid Shirazi (ARA), Mr. Richard Speir (ARA), Dr. David Pitfield (Loughborough University), Dr. Robert Caves (Loughborough University), Dr. Olga Selezneva (ARA) and Ms. Tara Puzin (ARA). The work was done under the general supervision of Dr. Manuel Ayres at ARA. The research team wishes to express their appreciation to Mr. Michael Salamone of the Transportation Research Board for his guidance and project coordination during the development of this study. The authors are very grateful for the guidance and help provided by the ACRP Panel for ACRP 4-01, chaired by Mr. Thomas J. Yager and composed of Dr. Xiaosong Xiao, Mr. Alan D. Black, Mr. John Eagerton, Mr. Jorge E. Panteli, Mr. Paul Wiedefeld, Ms. Christine Gerencher, Mr. Ken Jacobs, Mr. Paul L. Friedman and Mr. Richard Marchi. Finally, the authors are grateful for the support and assistance to obtain accident and incident data pro- vided by Mr. Chris Hart, FAA Assistant Administrator for System Safety, Mr. Vivek Sood, Manager of FAAâs Aviation Safety (AVS) Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS) Center, and Mr. James Fee, Analyst, Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS). C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S
Recent accidents involving aircraft overruns focused attention on improving airport run- way safety areas in the United States and elsewhere. ACRP Report 3: Analysis of Aircraft Overruns and Undershoots for Runway Safety Areas, the culmination of ACRP Project 04-01, examines historical data related to both overrun and undershoot occurrences. It will assist airport operators and airport planners in identifying conditions that may contribute to overruns and undershoots occurrences at airports. ACRP Report 3: Analysis of Aircraft Overruns and Undershoots for Runway Safety Areas covers four areas: (1) Research collected on accident/incident data from several notable sources; (2) inventory of the conditions relating to each; (3) assessment of risk in relation to the runway safety area; and (4) discussion on a set of alternatives to the traditional run- way safety area. Overruns and undershoots are factors in the design or improvement of runway safety areas (RSAs). The traditional approach to mitigate risk associated with accidents or inci- dents is to enlarge the runway safety area, but many airports do not have sufficient land to accommodate standard Federal Aviation Administration or International Civil Avia- tion Organization recommendations for RSAs. Airports that pursue this approach face extremely expensive and controversial land acquisition or wetlands filling projects to make sufficient land available. This report uses a probabilistic approachâa quantitative assessmentâto analyze the RSA and begins a discussion on how alternatives to a standard 1,000-foot RSA may ade- quately mitigate risk. The report also assesses the factors that increase the risk of such acci- dents occurring, helps with understanding how these incidents may happen, and suggests that aircraft overrun and undershoot risks are related to specific operational factors. The report suggests that significant improvement to airport operations safety may be achieved by monitoring and managing these operational factors for both RSA planning and during actual aircraft operations, and it provides recommendations for collection and reporting of data in future accident and incident investigations and reporting to allow future improvements to these models. F O R E W O R D By Michael R. Salamone Staff Officer Transportation Research Board
C O N T E N T S 1 Summary 2 Chapter 1 Background 2 Introduction 2 Project Objectives 4 Chapter 2 Research Approach 4 Literature Review 5 Functional Hazard Analysis 6 Database Development 10 Normal Operations Data 14 Normalization of Data 15 Development of Risk Models 19 Development of Prototype Software for Risk Analysis 20 Chapter 3 Findings and Applications 20 Database Summary Statistics 20 Summary of Anomalies Associated with Accidents and Incidents 21 Unreported Events 22 Probability of IncidentâFrequency Models 30 Accident Location Models 32 Consequences 37 Cost of Accidents 39 Chapter 4 Practical Application of Models 39 Step 1âRSA Details 39 Step 2âCollect Representative Traffic Sample 40 Step 3âDefine Crash Scenarios 41 Step 4âEstimate the Risk 42 Step 5âCharacterize Risk Frequency Distribution 42 Step 6âDetermine Percentage of Operations with Risk Above TLS 43 Step 7âTotal Percentage of Operations with Risk Above TLS 43 Steps 8 and 9âRepeat the Analysis for Other Runway Ends 45 Chapter 5 Conclusions and Recommendations 45 Major Achievements 46 Model Limitations 47 Recommendations for Future Work 48 References 50 Appendices