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ACRP AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM REPORT 3 Sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration Analysis of Aircraft Overruns and Undershoots for Runway Safety Areas

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ACRP OVERSIGHT COMMITTEE* TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2008 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE* CHAIR OFFICERS James Wilding CHAIR: Debra L. Miller, Secretary, Kansas DOT, Topeka Independent Consultant VICE CHAIR: Adib K. Kanafani, Cahill Professor of Civil Engineering, University of California, Berkeley EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: Robert E. Skinner, Jr., Transportation Research Board VICE CHAIR Jeff Hamiel MEMBERS MinneapolisSt. Paul Metropolitan Airports Commission J. Barry Barker, Executive Director, Transit Authority of River City, Louisville, KY Allen D. Biehler, Secretary, Pennsylvania DOT, Harrisburg MEMBERS John D. Bowe, President, Americas Region, APL Limited, Oakland, CA Larry L. Brown, Sr., Executive Director, Mississippi DOT, Jackson James Crites DallasFort Worth International Airport Deborah H. Butler, Executive Vice President, Planning, and CIO, Norfolk Southern Corporation, Richard de Neufville Norfolk, VA Massachusetts Institute of Technology William A.V. Clark, Professor, Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles Kevin C. Dolliole David S. Ekern, Commissioner, Virginia DOT, Richmond UCG Associates Nicholas J. Garber, Henry L. Kinnier Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Virginia, John K. Duval Charlottesville Beverly Municipal Airport Jeffrey W. Hamiel, Executive Director, Metropolitan Airports Commission, Minneapolis, MN Angela Gittens HNTB Corporation Edward A. (Ned) Helme, President, Center for Clean Air Policy, Washington, DC Steve Grossman Will Kempton, Director, California DOT, Sacramento Oakland International Airport Susan Martinovich, Director, Nevada DOT, Carson City Tom Jensen Michael D. Meyer, Professor, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of National Safe Skies Alliance Technology, Atlanta Catherine M. Lang Michael R. Morris, Director of Transportation, North Central Texas Council of Governments, Arlington Federal Aviation Administration Neil J. Pedersen, Administrator, Maryland State Highway Administration, Baltimore Gina Marie Lindsey Los Angeles World Airports Pete K. Rahn, Director, Missouri DOT, Jefferson City Carolyn Motz Sandra Rosenbloom, Professor of Planning, University of Arizona, Tucson Hagerstown Regional Airport Tracy L. Rosser, Vice President, Corporate Traffic, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., Bentonville, AR Richard Tucker Rosa Clausell Rountree, Executive Director, Georgia State Road and Tollway Authority, Atlanta Huntsville International Airport Henry G. (Gerry) Schwartz, Jr., Chairman (retired), Jacobs/Sverdrup Civil, Inc., St. Louis, MO C. Michael Walton, Ernest H. Cockrell Centennial Chair in Engineering, University of Texas, Austin EX OFFICIO MEMBERS Linda S. Watson, CEO, LYNXCentral Florida Regional Transportation Authority, Orlando Sabrina Johnson Steve Williams, Chairman and CEO, Maverick Transportation, Inc., Little Rock, AR U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Richard Marchi EX OFFICIO MEMBERS Airports Council International--North America Laura McKee Thad Allen (Adm., U.S. Coast Guard), Commandant, U.S. Coast Guard, Washington, DC Air Transport Association of America Joseph H. Boardman, Federal Railroad Administrator, U.S.DOT Henry Ogrodzinski Rebecca M. Brewster, President and COO, American Transportation Research Institute, Smyrna, GA National Association of State Aviation Officials Paul R. Brubaker, Research and Innovative Technology Administrator, U.S.DOT Melissa Sabatine George Bugliarello, Chancellor, Polytechnic University of New York, Brooklyn, and Foreign Secretary, American Association of Airport Executives Robert E. Skinner, Jr. National Academy of Engineering, Washington, DC Transportation Research Board Sean T. Connaughton, Maritime Administrator, U.S.DOT LeRoy Gishi, Chief, Division of Transportation, Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. Department of the SECRETARY Interior, Washington, DC Edward R. Hamberger, President and CEO, Association of American Railroads, Washington, DC Christopher W. Jenks Transportation Research Board John H. Hill, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administrator, U.S.DOT John C. Horsley, Executive Director, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, DC Carl T. Johnson, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administrator, U.S.DOT J. Edward Johnson, Director, Applied Science Directorate, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, John C. Stennis Space Center, MS William W. Millar, President, American Public Transportation Association, Washington, DC Nicole R. Nason, National Highway Traffic Safety Administrator, U.S.DOT James Ray, Acting Administrator, Federal Highway Administration, U.S.DOT James S. Simpson, Federal Transit Administrator, U.S.DOT Robert A. Sturgell, Acting Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration, U.S.DOT Robert L. Van Antwerp (Lt. Gen., U.S. Army), Chief of Engineers and Commanding General, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, DC *Membership as of January 2008. *Membership as of May 2008.

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AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM ACRP REPORT 3 Analysis of Aircraft Overruns and Undershoots for Runway Safety Areas Jim Hall Manuel Ayres Jr. Derek Wong Andrew Appleyard Mark Eddowes Hamid Shirazi Richard Speir David Pitfield Robert Caves Olga Selezneva Tara Puzin APPLIED RESEARCH ASSOCIATES, INC. Elkridge, MD Subject Areas Aviation Planning and Administration Safety and Human Performance Research sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2008 www.TRB.org

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AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM ACRP REPORT 3 Airports are vital national resources. They serve a key role in trans- Project 04-01 portation of people and goods and in regional, national, and inter- ISSN 1935-9802 national commerce. They are where the nation's aviation system ISBN: 978-0-309-09939-4 connects with other modes of transportation and where federal respon- Library of Congress Control Number 2008928726 sibility for managing and regulating air traffic operations intersects with the role of state and local governments that own and operate most 2008 Transportation Research Board airports. Research is necessary to solve common operating problems, to adapt appropriate new technologies from other industries, and to introduce innovations into the airport industry. The Airport Coopera- COPYRIGHT PERMISSION tive Research Program (ACRP) serves as one of the principal means by Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining which the airport industry can develop innovative near-term solutions written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously to meet demands placed on it. published or copyrighted material used herein. The need for ACRP was identified in TRB Special Report 272: Airport Research Needs: Cooperative Solutions in 2003, based on a study spon- Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the sored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The ACRP carries understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB or FAA endorsement out applied research on problems that are shared by airport operating of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the agencies and are not being adequately addressed by existing federal material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate research programs. It is modeled after the successful National Coopera- acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of tive Highway Research Program and Transit Cooperative Research Pro- the material, request permission from CRP. gram. The ACRP undertakes research and other technical activities in a variety of airport subject areas, including design, construction, mainte- nance, operations, safety, security, policy, planning, human resources, NOTICE and administration. The ACRP provides a forum where airport opera- tors can cooperatively address common operational problems. The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the Airport Cooperative Research Program conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the The ACRP was authorized in December 2003 as part of the Vision Governing Board of the National Research Council. Such approval reflects the Governing 100-Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act. The primary partici- Board's judgment that the project concerned is appropriate with respect to both the pants in the ACRP are (1) an independent governing board, the ACRP purposes and resources of the National Research Council. Oversight Committee (AOC), appointed by the Secretary of the U.S. The members of the technical advisory panel selected to monitor this project and to review Department of Transportation with representation from airport oper- this report were chosen for recognized scholarly competence and with due consideration ating agencies, other stakeholders, and relevant industry organizations for the balance of disciplines appropriate to the project. The opinions and conclusions such as the Airports Council International-North America (ACI-NA), expressed or implied are those of the research agency that performed the research, and the American Association of Airport Executives (AAAE), the National while they have been accepted as appropriate by the technical panel, they are not Association of State Aviation Officials (NASAO), and the Air Transport necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the Federal Aviation Administration of the U.S. Department of Transportation. Association (ATA) as vital links to the airport community; (2) the TRB as program manager and secretariat for the governing board; and Each report is reviewed and accepted for publication by the technical panel according to (3) the FAA as program sponsor. In October 2005, the FAA executed a procedures established and monitored by the Transportation Research Board Executive Committee and the Governing Board of the National Research Council. contract with the National Academies formally initiating the program. The ACRP benefits from the cooperation and participation of airport The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research professionals, air carriers, shippers, state and local government officials, Council, and the Federal Aviation Administration (sponsor of the Airport Cooperative Research Program) do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers' equipment and service suppliers, other airport users, and research orga- names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the clarity and nizations. Each of these participants has different interests and respon- completeness of the project reporting. sibilities, and each is an integral part of this cooperative research effort. Research problem statements for the ACRP are solicited periodically but may be submitted to the TRB by anyone at any time. It is the responsibility of the AOC to formulate the research program by iden- tifying the highest priority projects and defining funding levels and expected products. Once selected, each ACRP project is assigned to an expert panel, appointed by the TRB. Panels include experienced practitioners and research specialists; heavy emphasis is placed on including airport pro- fessionals, the intended users of the research products. The panels pre- pare project statements (requests for proposals), select contractors, and provide technical guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The process for developing research problem statements and Published reports of the selecting research agencies has been used by TRB in managing cooper- AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM ative research programs since 1962. As in other TRB activities, ACRP are available from: project panels serve voluntarily without compensation. Primary emphasis is placed on disseminating ACRP results to the Transportation Research Board Business Office intended end-users of the research: airport operating agencies, service 500 Fifth Street, NW providers, and suppliers. The ACRP produces a series of research Washington, DC 20001 reports for use by airport operators, local agencies, the FAA, and other interested parties, and industry associations may arrange for work- and can be ordered through the Internet at shops, training aids, field visits, and other activities to ensure that http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore results are implemented by airport-industry practitioners. 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COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAMS CRP STAFF FOR ACRP REPORT 3 Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Crawford F. Jencks, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Michael R. Salamone, Senior Program Officer Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Margaret B. Hagood, Editor ACRP PROJECT 04-01 PANEL Field of Safety Thomas J. Yager, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Hampton, VA (Chair) Alan D. Black, Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, DFW Airport, TX John Eagerton, Alabama DOT, Montgomery, AL Jorge E. Panteli, Massachusetts Port Authority, East Boston, MA Paul J. Wiedefeld, Maryland Transit Administration, Baltimore, MD Xiaosong "Sean" Xiao, Tetra Tech Inc., Pompano Beach, FL Ken Jacobs, FAA Liaison Richard Marchi, ACI-NA Liaison Christine Gerencher, TRB Liaison AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The research reported herein was performed under ACRP Project 4-01 by Applied Research Associates, Inc., Loughborough University (LU) and Engineering Safety & Risk Technology (ESR), from UK. ARA was the contractor for this study, with LU and ESR serving as sub-consultants. Dr. Jim Hall, P.E., Principal Engineer at ARA, was the Principal Investigator, Dr. Derek Wong, Avia- tion Analyst at Ascend Worldwide Limited (formerly Research Assistant at Loughborough University) was the co-Principal Investigator, and Dr. Manuel Ayres, Senior Engineer at ARA, served as Project Manager. The other authors of this report are: Mr. Andrew Appleyard (Loughborough University), Dr. Mark Eddowes (ESR Technology), Mr. Hamid Shirazi (ARA), Mr. Richard Speir (ARA), Dr. David Pitfield (Loughborough University), Dr. Robert Caves (Loughborough University), Dr. Olga Selezneva (ARA) and Ms. Tara Puzin (ARA). The work was done under the general supervision of Dr. Manuel Ayres at ARA. The research team wishes to express their appreciation to Mr. Michael Salamone of the Transportation Research Board for his guidance and project coordination during the development of this study. The authors are very grateful for the guidance and help provided by the ACRP Panel for ACRP 4-01, chaired by Mr. Thomas J. Yager and composed of Dr. Xiaosong Xiao, Mr. Alan D. Black, Mr. John Eagerton, Mr. Jorge E. Panteli, Mr. Paul Wiedefeld, Ms. Christine Gerencher, Mr. Ken Jacobs, Mr. Paul L. Friedman and Mr. Richard Marchi. Finally, the authors are grateful for the support and assistance to obtain accident and incident data pro- vided by Mr. Chris Hart, FAA Assistant Administrator for System Safety, Mr. Vivek Sood, Manager of FAA's Aviation Safety (AVS) Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS) Center, and Mr. James Fee, Analyst, Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS).

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FOREWORD By Michael R. Salamone Staff Officer Transportation Research Board Recent accidents involving aircraft overruns focused attention on improving airport run- way safety areas in the United States and elsewhere. ACRP Report 3: Analysis of Aircraft Overruns and Undershoots for Runway Safety Areas, the culmination of ACRP Project 04-01, examines historical data related to both overrun and undershoot occurrences. It will assist airport operators and airport planners in identifying conditions that may contribute to overruns and undershoots occurrences at airports. ACRP Report 3: Analysis of Aircraft Overruns and Undershoots for Runway Safety Areas covers four areas: (1) Research collected on accident/incident data from several notable sources; (2) inventory of the conditions relating to each; (3) assessment of risk in relation to the runway safety area; and (4) discussion on a set of alternatives to the traditional run- way safety area. Overruns and undershoots are factors in the design or improvement of runway safety areas (RSAs). The traditional approach to mitigate risk associated with accidents or inci- dents is to enlarge the runway safety area, but many airports do not have sufficient land to accommodate standard Federal Aviation Administration or International Civil Avia- tion Organization recommendations for RSAs. Airports that pursue this approach face extremely expensive and controversial land acquisition or wetlands filling projects to make sufficient land available. This report uses a probabilistic approach--a quantitative assessment--to analyze the RSA and begins a discussion on how alternatives to a standard 1,000-foot RSA may ade- quately mitigate risk. The report also assesses the factors that increase the risk of such acci- dents occurring, helps with understanding how these incidents may happen, and suggests that aircraft overrun and undershoot risks are related to specific operational factors. The report suggests that significant improvement to airport operations safety may be achieved by monitoring and managing these operational factors for both RSA planning and during actual aircraft operations, and it provides recommendations for collection and reporting of data in future accident and incident investigations and reporting to allow future improvements to these models.

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CONTENTS 1 Summary 2 Chapter 1 Background 2 Introduction 2 Project Objectives 4 Chapter 2 Research Approach 4 Literature Review 5 Functional Hazard Analysis 6 Database Development 10 Normal Operations Data 14 Normalization of Data 15 Development of Risk Models 19 Development of Prototype Software for Risk Analysis 20 Chapter 3 Findings and Applications 20 Database Summary Statistics 20 Summary of Anomalies Associated with Accidents and Incidents 21 Unreported Events 22 Probability of IncidentFrequency Models 30 Accident Location Models 32 Consequences 37 Cost of Accidents 39 Chapter 4 Practical Application of Models 39 Step 1--RSA Details 39 Step 2--Collect Representative Traffic Sample 40 Step 3--Define Crash Scenarios 41 Step 4--Estimate the Risk 42 Step 5--Characterize Risk Frequency Distribution 42 Step 6--Determine Percentage of Operations with Risk Above TLS 43 Step 7--Total Percentage of Operations with Risk Above TLS 43 Steps 8 and 9--Repeat the Analysis for Other Runway Ends 45 Chapter 5 Conclusions and Recommendations 45 Major Achievements 46 Model Limitations 47 Recommendations for Future Work 48 References 50 Appendices