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FOOD AID PROJ ECTIONS FOR TH E DECADE OF THE 1990s REPORT OF AN AD HOC PANEL MEETING OCTOBER 6 & 7 1988 Board on Science and Technology for International Development Office of International Affairs National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418

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National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competence and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Board on Science and Technology for International Development (BOSTID) of the Office of International Affairs addresses a range of issues arising from the ways in which science and technology in developing countries can stimulate and complement the complex processes of social and economic development. It oversees a broad program of bilateral workshops with scientific organizations in developing countries and conducts special studies. This report has been prepared by an ad hoc advisory panel of the Board on Science and Technology for International Development, Office of International Affairs, National Research Council. Staff support was funded by the Agency for International Development, under Grant No. DAN-5052-C-00-6037-00. Copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 89-43151 ISBN: 0-309-04268-2 Printed in the United States of America

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Preface At the request of the Agency for International Development's Bureau for Food for Peace and Private and Voluntary Assistance (AID/FVA) the Board on Science and Technology for International Development (BOSTID) of the National Research Council (NRC) arranged for an NRC-appointed pane} and a group of experts to convene for two days of discussions concerning projections of needs for food aid in the decade 1990-2000. The objective of the meeting was to examine the projections of food commodity trade and, either directly or by deduction, food aid needs of developing countries, relying upon work of six principal groups engaged in food commodity analysisthe United Nations Food and Agriculture Organiza- tion (FAO) Commodities and Bade Division (and others), the World Bank International Commodity Markets Division, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economics Research Service Commodity Bade and Analysis Branch (and others), the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the Iowa State University Center for Agricultural Research and Development (CARD), and the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis {QUASAR. Their projections were discussed from the r)f~rsn~f..t~i~r~ of ~ n''mh~r of ~ zig ~ specialists engaged in parallel types of analysis of future global economic, regional econo- political, demographic, and climatic impact, scientific and technological research impact, and risk forecasting. Working closely with Raymond Hopkins of Swarthmore College, chairman of the NRC- appointed panel, and Jon O'Rourke of AID/FVA, a substantive agenda was drawn up for a two-day meeting involving approximately thirty distinguished participants drawn from academia, government, and industry. (The list of participants, agenda, and contributed papers are included as annexes to this report.) The workshop was convened October 6-7, 1988, at the National Academy of Sciences' Georgetown Facility. What follows is a two-part report of the meeting: an executive sum- mary, which attempts to review the issues raised at the workshop and the conclusions reached in non-technical language, and a summary report of the workshop discussions, including a brief description of the food aid estimation methodologies. As with all endeav- ors that attempt to bring together many different perspectives and distill large amounts of information into a coherent form accessible to the non-speciaTist, based on only two days of discussions, a number of challenges were faced in the design and implementation ~ 111

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of this project. As a result, a number of people deserve special thanks: the model- ers, Ronald Duncan of the International Commodity Markets Division, the World Bank; Hannan Ezekiel, International Food Policy Research Institute, Klaus Frohberg, Interna- tional Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris, WiTli Meyers, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University, Bruno Larue and Karl Meilke, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Guelph, Ontario, Ray Nightingale and Ronald Jostle, Economic Research Service, USDA, and Richard Perkins, Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, Rome; Edward Clay, Director of the Relief and Development Insti- tute, London, Bruce Johnston, Food Research Institute, Stanford University, and Lawrence Klein, Economics Department, University of Pennsylvania, who reviewed the draft report on behalf of the NRC; Jon O'Rourke for his able technical liaison at AID/FVA and substan- tive assistance; the panelists, for their helpful comments and suggestions; and Raymond Hopkins, who served most ably as chairman, rewrote and edited many versions of the report, and supplied good counsel throughout the process. Michael McD. Dow Mitchel B. Wallerstein Office of International Affairs National Research Council February 28, 1989 1V

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PANEL ON FOOD AID REQUIREMENTS FOR THE 1990s RAYMOND F. HOPKINS, Chairman, Department of Political Science, Swarthmore College ~ Chairman) ROBERT KATES, Director, Alan Shawn Feinstein World Hunger Program, Brown University PER PINSTRUP-ANDERSEN, Nutrition Surveillance Unit, Division of Nutritional Sciences, Cornell University DONALD L. PLUCKNETT, Senior Scientific Adviser, The World Bank BEATRICE ROGERS, School of Nutrition, Tufts University NORMAN L. ROSENBERG, Director, Climate Resources Program, Resources for the Future v

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WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS RAYMOND HOPKINS, Chairman, Department of Political Science, Swarthmore College, Swarthmore, Pennsylvania, (Chairman) DUANE ACKER, Assistant to the Administrator for Food and Agriculture, Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C. ROBERT CHEN, Alan Shawn Feinstein World Hunger Program, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island OWEN CYLKE, Acting Assistant Administrator, Bureau for Food for Peace and Voluntary Assistance, Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C. CHRISTOPHER DELGADO, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C. RONALD DUNCAN, International Commodity Markets Division, The World Bank, Washington, D.C. HANNAN EZEKIEL, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C. KLAUS FROHBERG, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria JUDITH GILMORE, Latin American and Caribbean Division, Bureau of Food for Peace and Voluntary Assistance, Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C. CHARLES HANRAHAN, Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, Washington, D.C. CHARLES HUTCHINSON, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C. ROBERT KATES, Director, Alan Shawn Feinstein World Hunger Program, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island LAWRENCE KLEIN, Economics Department, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania BRUNO LARUE, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario MELANIE MARLETT, Nutrition Policy Adviser, Bureau for Program and Policy Coordination, Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C. GENE MATHIA, Chief, Developing Economics Branch, Agriculture and Trade Analysis Division, Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C. DONALD MCCLELLAND, Nutrition Policy Adviser, Bureau for Program and Policy Coordination, Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C. KARL MEILKE, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario WILLIAM MEYERS, Professor of Economics and Associate Administrator, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa RAY NIGHTINGALE, Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture Washington, D.C. JON O'ROURKE, Bureau for Food for Peace and Voluntary Assistance, Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C. RICHARD PERKINS, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Via delle Terme di Caracalla, Rome PER PINSTRUP-ANDERSEN, Nutrition Surveillance Unit, Division of Nutritional Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York V1

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DONALD PLUCKNETT, Senior Scientific Adviser, The World Bank, Washington, D.C. BARRY RILEY, Director, Office of Program, Policy and Management, Bureau of Food for Peace and Voluntary Assistance, Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C. BEATRICE ROGERS, Tufts University, School of Nutrition, Medford, Massachusetts NORMAN ROSENBERG, Director, Climate Resources Program, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C. MARK SMITH, Commodity Trade & Analysis Branch, Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C. RONALD TROSTLE, Chief, Commodity Trade & Analysis Branch, Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C. National Research Council Staff JAY J. DAVENPORT, Senior Program Officer, Board on Science and Technology for International Development JAY DORSEY, NRC Intern, Board on Science and Technology for International Development MICHAEL DOW, Associate Director, Studies, Board on Science and Technology for International Development SUSAN PIARULLI, Program Assistant, Board on Science and Technology for International Development MITCHEL B. WALLERSTEIN, Associate Executive Director, Office of International Affairs V11

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Principal Findings, 2 Definitions of Food Aid, 2 Methodologies, 3 Demographic Considerations, 4 Nutritional Considerations, 5 Estimates Compared, 5 Shocks That Could Affect Future Projections, 7 Weather and Climate, 7 Other External Factors, 8 WORKSHOP PROCEEDINGS.... Introduction, 9 Definitions, 9 Methodology, 10 Food Commodity Trade and Aid Forecasting, 12 Output of the Models, 13 Presentation of IFPRI Figures, 15 Presentation of FAO Figures, 15 Presentation of World Bank Figures, 17 Presentation of FAPRI Figures, 18 Presentation of USDA Figures, 21 Presentation of IIASA Figures, 22 Macroeconomic Context, 24 Demographic Considerations, 27 Nutritional Context, 29 Technical Research and Development Context, 33 Climatic Impact Context, 34 Climate Change, 35 Drought Impact, 39 1X

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African Regional Context, 38 Estimating Food Aid, 40 Points of Consensus Reached by the Workshop, 42 References and Bibliography, 45 APPENDIXES B C Medium Term Estimates of Demand-Based Food Aid Requirements and Their Vari- ability by Hannan Ezekiel, 47 Food Aid Requirements of Developing Countries by Klaus Frohberg, 91 Commodity Market Outlook and Trade Implications Indicated by the FAPRT Analysis by William Meyers, S. Devadoss, and Bruna Angel, 98 D Outlook for Grains and Soybeans to 2000 by Donald Mitchell, 122 E Workshop Statement by Richard Perkins, 140 F Food Aid Needs During the 1990s by Ronald Trostle, 154 G Long-term Agricultural Commodity Forecasts and Food Aid Needs by Bruno Larue and Karl D. Meilke, 171