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OCR for page 77
The Basic CAPTool Guide 79
Step 2: Thresholds
Introduction
In Step 2, the user sets the consequence threshold assets and asset classes. The consequence
threshold is the point set by the owner, operator, or system user that goes beyond the effects of
routine disruptions and losses that current preparations and responses are designed to manage.
Setting a consequence threshold focuses attention on the relevant assets, eliminating from fur-
ther consideration those assets that cannot exceed consequence thresholds, regardless of the haz-
ard or threat. The consequence threshold is used to identify assets or asset classes to be included and
the extent to which the hazards and threats identified in Step 1 are retained in the assessment.
Thresholds are set for each asset class and for each consequence category. The threshold is used
to identify assets that are to be considered in later steps as candidates for countermeasure appli-
cation. The user can adjust the threshold for any of the consequences to determine how such
changes might affect the number and types of assets that remain on the high-consequence list
and thus are candidates for investment of additional resources.
Purpose
The objective of this step is to establish the consequence threshold beyond which the asset
owner, operator, or system user would consider investments in countermeasures to prevent
losses or mitigate consequences.
Definitions
Consequence--An indication of the negative effects from an event on assets of interest. Assets of
interest are typically people, structures, or equipment.
Direct Consequence--The loss of life, or injury, to a person or damage or destruction of property.
Indirect Consequence--Adverse social, economic, or psychological effects resulting from an event.
Consequence Threshold--A planning factor used to set the level of consequences beyond which
additional investments in countermeasures may be justified. The user may choose this level
because beyond it, the physical, economic, or mission damages cannot be readily restored
with available resources. The choice of a threshold does not mean that losses below this level
are unimportant or inconsequential; it means that losses below this level can be managed
operationally and within the existing resources of the agency.
Assumptions
1. The consequence levels chosen are consistent with an agency's intent to commit resources to
eliminate or mitigate consequences that exceed the threshold.
2. The user can alter and adjust the threshold levels in subsequent iterations with the CAPTool.
User Input
User inputs in this step establish the consequence thresholds for each of these consequence
categories for each asset category (Figure 4). This step requires the user to select a combination
of consequence thresholds.
The user will select threshold values for each of the consequence areas consistent with the level
of responsibility and concern the user acknowledges. The threshold selected is not meant to
imply that losses below the threshold are of no consequence, but that losses below the selected
threshold are within responsibilities and concern of other entities (e.g., subordinate jurisdictions
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80
1 2 3 4 5 6 Basic CAPTool
Reset Thresholds Jump to Critical
CAPTool User Guide
1 1a 2 3 4 5a 5b 5c 5 6 Expanded CAPTool Previous Next Assets Summay
to Lowest Levels
Establish Consequence Thresholds Instructions (Only if Data on
For each asset class, set the appropriate thresholds. Individual Assets is
When done, click "Next." Already Entered
"Reset" sets all thresholds to their lowest levels.
Category Critical Threshold Explanation
ROAD BRIDGE Potentially Exposed Population 0 Potentially exposed population threshold
Property Loss $5,000 Replacement cost
Mission Importance Level I Demand percentile for ADT * Detour Length
Level I 29000 The default threshold values for ADT * detour length are taken from the 75th, 85th,
Level II 68000 Restore Defaults and 95th percentiles for the U.S. If these are inappropriate for your state, enter
Level III 241000 different values in the appropriate fields to the left.
ROAD TUNNEL Potentially Exposed Population 0 Potentially exposed population threshold
Property Loss $5,000 Replacement cost
Mission Importance Yes Do you consider all road tunnels to be mission critical?
TRANSIT/RAIL Potentially Exposed Population 0 Potentially exposed population threshold
STATION Property Loss Yes Do you consider below-ground stations to be property critical?
Mission Importance Yes Do you consider all transfer stations to be mission critical?
TRANSIT/RAIL Potentially Exposed Population 0 Potentially exposed population threshold
BRIDGE Property Loss $5,000 Replacement cost
Mission Importance 0 What % of ridership does a bridge need to serve in order to be mission critical?
TRANSIT/RAIL Potentially Exposed Population 0 Potentially exposed population threshold
TUNNEL Property Loss $5,000 Replacement cost
Mission Importance 0 What % of ridership does a tunnel need to serve in order to be mission critical?
ADMIN & SUPPORT Potentially Exposed Population 0 Potentially exposed population threshold
FACILITIES Property Loss $5,000 Replacement cost
Mission Importance Yes Do you consider all administrative and support facilities to be mission critical?
FERRY BOATS Potentially Exposed Population 0 Potentially exposed population threshold
Property Loss $5,000 Replacement cost
Mission Importance Yes Do you consider all ferry boats to be mission critical?
TRANSIT FLEETS Potentially Exposed Population 0 Potentially exposed population threshold
Property Loss $5,000 Replacement cost
Mission Importance Yes Do you consider all transit fleets to be mission critical?
Figure 4. Consequence threshold values.
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The Basic CAPTool Guide 81
or agencies or offices within agencies). The losses below the threshold may be within the means
of response for the agency.
The user begins by identifying consequence thresholds where additional capital investments
might be considered. This consequence can be adjusted through successive iterations but identi-
fies an outcome that is considered worthy of avoiding and may require investments in counter-
measures. The level of investment is determined in Step 5. After seeing the resource implications
of a selected consequence threshold, the decision maker may choose to raise or lower the thresh-
old to determine how the costs vary with changes in the threshold values.
For the purposes of this step, the body of previous work in this area provides the basis for the
consequence categories. When applied to particular assets or asset classes, consequence categories
assume total destruction of the asset. The following consequence categories are used in Step 1:
· Potentially Exposed Population: This category is expressed in terms of potential casualties. The
expression is a range of casualties for each threshold level. The CAPTool uses the phrase "poten-
tially exposed population" (PEP) because the analysis assumes that this is the upper bound on
harm to people associated with the maximum threat. Therefore, the reference is to exposure to
risk rather than an estimate of the actual casualties resulting from the hazard or threat.
· Property Loss: This category is expressed in terms of asset replacement costs. The expression
is in millions of dollars across the cost range.
· Mission Importance: This category is expressed in terms of loss of function and/or transport
delays and is relevant to specific assets or asset classes, including the relative importance of
assets to the transportation network as indicated by their system role (e.g., Interstate Highway
System, National Highway System designation) and the volume of use (e.g., Average Daily Traf-
fic (ADT)) across a volume range. For highway bridges, the CAPTA uses the product of ADT
and detour distance as a surrogate for mission or function impact. The user can set the values
of this factor based on local data. For purposes of illustration, this CAPTool example uses the
75, 85, and 95 percentile of this product based on bridges in the National Bridge Inventory.
Note that other major consequences may also occur, including loss of specific government
services, delays to emergency response, and impediments to military deployment. However, such
consequences tend to be highly correlated with the primary consequences that capture loss of
life; loss of property; and disruption of functions and related economic, government, military,
and emergency response activities.
The consequence categories are provided as a starting point so that decision makers may make
an initial pass through the process and then, through feedback and adjustments, converge on
solutions that make sense within the context for which they are developed.
Output
The product of this step is the user-selected consequence thresholds by consequence cate-
gories. The information entered into CAPTool during this step is used in identifying assets and
asset classes that are judged to be of high consequence (critical) and will remain in the analysis
for further consideration.
ATA Example
As shown in Figure 5, ATA's available resources, including additional capital from the state
legislature and bond markets, enable it to set a consequence threshold of about $100 million for
sustaining damages to infrastructure. ATA is realistic about casualties, setting thresholds appro-
priate to the mode of transportation, averaging 100 potentially exposed persons. It does not con-
sider its transit fleets to be critical to the mission of the agency.
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82
1 2 3 4 5 6 Basic CAPTool
Reset Thresholds Jump to Critical
CAPTool User Guide
1 1a 2 3 4 5a 5b 5c 5 6 Expanded CAPTool Previous Next Assets Summay
to Lowest Levels
Establish Consequence Thresholds Instructions
(Only if Data on
For each asset class, set the appropriate thresholds.
Individual Assets is
When done, click "Next."
Already Entered
"Reset" sets all thresholds to their lowest levels.
Category Critical Threshold Explanation
ROAD BRIDGE Potentially Exposed Population 200 Potentially exposed population threshold
Property Loss $101,699,661 Replacement cost
Mission Importance Demand Percentile II Demand percentile for ADT * Detour Length
Level I 29000 The default threshold values for ADT * detour length are taken from the 75th, 85th,
Level II 68000 Restore Defaults and 95th percentiles for the U.S. If these are inappropriate for your state, enter
Level III 241000 different values in the appropriate fields to the left.
ROAD TUNNEL Potentially Exposed Population 101 Potentially exposed population threshold
Property Loss $101,699,661 Replacement cost
Mission Importance No Do you consider all road tunnels to be mission critical?
TRANSIT/RAIL Potentially Exposed Population 100 Potentially exposed population threshold
STATION Property Loss Yes Do you consider below-ground stations to be property critical?
Mission Importance Yes Do you consider all transfer stations to be mission critical?
TRANSIT/RAIL Potentially Exposed Population 200 Potentially exposed population threshold
BRIDGE Property Loss $100,004,750 Replacement cost
Mission Importance 20 What % of ridership does a bridge need to serve in order to be mission critical?
TRANSIT/RAIL Potentially Exposed Population 200 Potentially exposed population threshold
TUNNEL Property Loss $100,004,750 Replacement cost
Mission Importance 20 What % of ridership does a tunnel need to serve in order to be mission critical?
ADMIN & SUPPORT Potentially Exposed Population 101 Potentially exposed population threshold
FACILITIES Property Loss $101,699,661 Replacement cost
Mission Importance No Do you consider all administrative and support facilities to be mission critical?
FERRY BOATS Potentially Exposed Population 305 Potentially exposed population threshold
Property Loss $101,699,661 Replacement cost
Mission Importance No Do you consider all ferry boats to be mission critical?
TRANSIT FLEETS Potentially Exposed Population 50 Potentially exposed population threshold
Property Loss $100,004,750 Replacement cost
Mission Importance No Do you consider all transit fleets to be mission critical?
Figure 5. ATA consequence threshold choices.
