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13
CHAPTER 5
Estimation of Savings
Savings, or estimated benefits, from any highway safety immediately becomes apparent that, even using our conser-
measure are calculated based on three factors as follows: vative estimates, the costs associated with crashes are very
large for any target group. Even small reductions in crashes in
1. The number of fatalities and injuries resulting from crashes a major target group will result in tens of millions of dollars
addressed by the countermeasure (based on number of in direct economic savings to the state.
deaths in the target group and on an estimate of the num- States can increase the precision with respect to the num-
ber of injuries per death avoided), bers shown in Table 4 by determining the actual number of
2. The estimated percentage reduction produced by the fatal victims in the state within each target group. For ex-
countermeasure, and ample, instead of taking the national average of 11% of all
3. The estimated cost of each fatality and injury avoided. fatalities being pedestrians, states can use their own number
of pedestrian fatalities per year. In order to arrive at a stable
Dollar values associated with a fatality and dollar values estimate for smaller target groups, most states will likely
associated with an injury were derived in the last section. This have to calculate an average number of deaths across several
section begins with those dollar values and then relates them years. Two or three years of data should be sufficient for
to the dollar "savings" that might be derived from the success- most states; as many as five years may be needed for smaller
ful implementation of a given countermeasure in the median states.
state as described in the following section.
Countermeasure Effectiveness
Median State
The estimated effectiveness of a countermeasure was based
There were 42,642 motor-vehicle-related fatalities in the on research and evaluation studies for that countermeasure.
United States in 2006 (NHTSA, 2007a). The median number These effectiveness estimates for 23 Proven countermeasures,
of fatalities per state was 630. To estimate the costs incurred along with a brief statement regarding relevant research cita-
by a typical state, the researchers assume each state to have tions, are detailed in Appendix B. When estimated effects
600 fatalities a year and use that assumption as a basis for were reported as a range, the lowest estimate of effectiveness
example calculations. States with 1,200 fatalities per year was used. For instance, if the fatal and/or injury reduction
would multiply all cost/savings estimates by two. States with associated with a given countermeasure as based on three
300 fatalities per year would divide by two. high-quality evaluation studies was 10%, 12%, and 16%, re-
Estimates for this "median" or "typical" state are shown in spectively, then the 10% figure was used in the calculation of
Table 4. This state experiences an overall loss of $2.955 billion savings.
dollars per year. That loss, based on the national distribution Use of the lowest effectiveness number, although perhaps
of fatalities and injuries, is largely accounted for by three too conservative in some cases, should allow states to make
target groups: (1) front seat occupants of passenger vehicles; benefit/cost decisions without the need to assume that their
(2) speed; and (3) alcohol-impaired driving. Also shown in implementation would be "exemplary" or "extraordinary" as
Table 4 are dollar savings that could be achieved if crashes compared to previously demonstrated effective efforts. States
represented by each of these respective target groups could be planning an "exemplary" implementation can recalculate
reduced by some specified amount, say 10%, 30%, or 50%. It their benefit estimates based on the middle or high estimate.
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Table 4. Median state fatality and cost estimates.
Percent If estimated effectiveness is
Cost for of all 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Target example state fatalities then resulting estimated savings are:
All fatalities and injuries $2,954,577,660 100 $295,457,766 $590,915,532 $886,373,298 $1,181,831,064 $1,477,288,830
Fatalities and injuries involving alcohol-impaired
drivers $537,848,587 35.46 $53,784,859 $107,569,717 $161,354,576 $215,139,435 $268,924,294
Alcohol-related involving drivers with previous
DWI convictions $41,509,775 2.74 $4,150,978 $8,301,955 $12,452,933 $16,603,910 $20,754,888
Alcohol-related $626,096,874 41.28 $62,609,687 $125,219,375 $187,829,062 $250,438,750 $313,048,437
Belt use: unbelted front seat outboard
occupant, passenger vehicle $1,082,328,300 30.89 $108,232,830 $216,465,660 $324,698,490 $432,931,320 $541,164,150
School-aged pedestrians $3,750,385 0.30 $375,039 $750,077 $1,125,116 $1,500,154 $1,875,193
Unhelmeted bicyclists ages 12 and under $4,512,100 0.17 $451,210 $902,420 $1,353,630 $1,804,840 $2,256,050
Bicyclists age 12 and under $4,573,075 0.18 $457,308 $914,615 $1,371,923 $1,829,230 $2,286,538
Unhelmeted bicyclists age 13 and up $39,572,340 1.52 $3,957,234 $7,914,468 $11,871,702 $15,828,936 $19,786,170
Teen drivers $268,232,054 5.37 $26,823,205 $53,646,411 $80,469,616 $107,292,822 $134,116,027
Underage drivers with BAC .01 $99,061,459 6.53 $9,906,146 $19,812,292 $29,718,438 $39,624,584 $49,530,730
Speed related $609,535,127 27.01 $60,953,513 $121,907,025 $182,860,538 $243,814,051 $304,767,564
Elderly drivers (75+) $177,202,538 7.35 $17,720,254 $35,440,508 $53,160,761 $70,881,015 $88,601,269
