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13 Savings, or estimated benefits, from any highway safety measure are calculated based on three factors as follows: 1. The number of fatalities and injuries resulting from crashes addressed by the countermeasure (based on number of deaths in the target group and on an estimate of the num- ber of injuries per death avoided), 2. The estimated percentage reduction produced by the countermeasure, and 3. The estimated cost of each fatality and injury avoided. Dollar values associated with a fatality and dollar values associated with an injury were derived in the last section. This section begins with those dollar values and then relates them to the dollar âsavingsâ that might be derived from the success- ful implementation of a given countermeasure in the median state as described in the following section. Median State There were 42,642 motor-vehicle-related fatalities in the United States in 2006 (NHTSA, 2007a). The median number of fatalities per state was 630. To estimate the costs incurred by a typical state, the researchers assume each state to have 600 fatalities a year and use that assumption as a basis for example calculations. States with 1,200 fatalities per year would multiply all cost/savings estimates by two. States with 300 fatalities per year would divide by two. Estimates for this âmedianâ or âtypicalâ state are shown in Table 4. This state experiences an overall loss of $2.955 billion dollars per year. That loss, based on the national distribution of fatalities and injuries, is largely accounted for by three target groups: (1) front seat occupants of passenger vehicles; (2) speed; and (3) alcohol-impaired driving. Also shown in Table 4 are dollar savings that could be achieved if crashes represented by each of these respective target groups could be reduced by some specified amount, say 10%, 30%, or 50%. It immediately becomes apparent that, even using our conser- vative estimates, the costs associated with crashes are very large for any target group. Even small reductions in crashes in a major target group will result in tens of millions of dollars in direct economic savings to the state. States can increase the precision with respect to the num- bers shown in Table 4 by determining the actual number of fatal victims in the state within each target group. For ex- ample, instead of taking the national average of 11% of all fatalities being pedestrians, states can use their own number of pedestrian fatalities per year. In order to arrive at a stable estimate for smaller target groups, most states will likely have to calculate an average number of deaths across several years. Two or three years of data should be sufficient for most states; as many as five years may be needed for smaller states. Countermeasure Effectiveness The estimated effectiveness of a countermeasure was based on research and evaluation studies for that countermeasure. These effectiveness estimates for 23 Proven countermeasures, along with a brief statement regarding relevant research cita- tions, are detailed in Appendix B. When estimated effects were reported as a range, the lowest estimate of effectiveness was used. For instance, if the fatal and/or injury reduction associated with a given countermeasure as based on three high-quality evaluation studies was 10%, 12%, and 16%, re- spectively, then the 10% figure was used in the calculation of savings. Use of the lowest effectiveness number, although perhaps too conservative in some cases, should allow states to make benefit/cost decisions without the need to assume that their implementation would be âexemplaryâ or âextraordinaryâ as compared to previously demonstrated effective efforts. States planning an âexemplaryâ implementation can recalculate their benefit estimates based on the middle or high estimate. C H A P T E R 5 Estimation of Savings
If estimated effectiv eness is 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Target Cost for example state Percen t of all fatalities then resulting estimated sav ings are: All fatalities and injuries $2,954,577,660 100 $295,457,766 $590,915,532 $886,373,298 $1,181,831,064 $1,477,288,830 Fatalities and injuries involving alcohol-impaired drivers $537,848,587 35.46 $53,784,859 $107,569,717 $161,354,576 $215,139,435 $268,924,294 Alcohol-related involving drivers with previous DWI convictions $41,509,775 2.74 $4,150,978 $8,301,955 $12,452,933 $16,603,910 $20,754,888 Alcohol-related $626,096,874 41.28 $62,609,687 $125,219,375 $187,829,062 $250,438,750 $313,048,437 Belt use: unbelted front seat outboard occupant, passenger vehicle $1,082,328,300 30.89 $108,232,830 $216,465,660 $324,698,490 $432,931,320 $541,164,150 School-aged pedestrians $3,750,385 0.30 $375,039 $750,077 $1,125,116 $1,500,154 $1,875,193 Unhelmeted bicy clists ages 12 and under $4,512,100 0.17 $451,210 $902,420 $1,353,630 $1,804,840 $2,256,050 Bicy clists age 12 and under $4,573,075 0.18 $457,308 $914,615 $1,371,923 $1,829,230 $2,286,538 Unhelmeted bicy clists age 13 and up $39,572,340 1.52 $3,957,234 $7,914,468 $11,871,702 $15,828,936 $19,786,170 Teen drivers $268,232,054 5.37 $26,823,205 $53,646,411 $80,469,616 $107,292,822 $134,116,027 Underage drivers with BAC .01 $99,061,459 6.53 $9,906,146 $19,812,292 $29,718,438 $39,624,584 $49,530,730 Speed related $609,535,127 27.01 $60,953,513 $121,907,025 $182,860,538 $243,814,051 $304,767,564 Elderly drivers (75+) $177,202,538 7.35 $17,720,254 $35,440,508 $53,160,761 $70,881,015 $88,601,269 Table 4. Median state fatality and cost estimates.
Estimating the potential cost savings associated with any of the Proven countermeasures (for which an effect size is pro- vided) is a relatively straightforward algebraic calculation when the following parameters are known: 1. The target group size (i.e., the number of fatalities and injuries in crashes addressed by the countermeasure); 2. The estimated effectiveness of the countermeasure (i.e., the percentage reduction produced by the counter- measure); and 3. The estimated dollar value of each fatality and injury avoided. Example The first countermeasure shown in Appendix B is School Pedestrian Training for Children. The target population for this countermeasure is pedestrian crash victims, ages 6 to 12. This target group comprised 0.303% of all fatalities (129 of 42,642) in 2006. Based on this proportion, our âtypicalâ state with 600 annual fatalities might expect that 1.82 of its total number of victims would be pedestrians 6 to 12 years of age. Based on the last column of Table 2, the estimated injury/ fatality ratio for pedestrians is 31.4/1. Thus, this typical state might expect 57 (MAIS 1-5) injuries annually, in addition to the 1.82 fatalities. Based on the estimated unit costs of $1,115,820 per fatality and $30,238 per MAIS 1-5 injury (see Table 3), the total cost associated with 1.82 deaths and 57 injuries among child pedestrians would be $3,750,385 per year in this typical state. Again, these estimates should be considered to be conserva- tive. They make no adjustment for pain and suffering and they make no adjustments for age of the victim. The life of an elderly victim, using this estimation procedure, is considered to be equally valuable to that of a child, a teenager, the parent of a child, or anyone else. That is, the costs reported here are averages across all ages. The results of known evaluations of child pedestrian train- ing (see Appendix B) suggest that such training can reduce child pedestrian injury by about 12%. Applying this effect size as a 12% reduction in the $3,750,385 cost estimate associated with child pedestrian deaths and injuries yields an estimated saving of $450,046. Can the typical state with 600 fatalities conduct child pedestrian training statewide for $450,046 or less? If the answer to this question is yes, then this countermeasure will be cost effective. That is, the benefit will exceed the cost. Even if the answer is no on a statewide basis, the state may decide to limit implementation of the countermeasure to those juris- dictions, typically urban, where child pedestrian crashes are most common. This should substantially reduce implemen- tation costs while retaining much of the benefit. Proven Countermeasures Similar calculations are possible for 23 of the Proven coun- termeasures. Such calculations, detailed in Appendix B, are summarized in Tables 5 through 8. The savings possible from these 23 countermeasures for a typical state with 600 fatali- ties range from $450,046 (for school pedestrian training) to $121,907,025 (for automated enforcement). Table 5 provides cost-savings estimates for the two Proven voluntary action countermeasures for which crash/death/ injury reduction estimates are available. It suggests that an esti- mated savings of $450,046 would be associated with an effec- tive pedestrian countermeasure and a savings of $6,140,394 would be associated with an effective booster seat program. Note that both of these countermeasures involve children, teachers, and parents. With regard to adult behavior, the lit- erature suggests that education and information can be effec- tive only when it is used in support of some other measure, such as enforcement or sanctions. It is not likely to be effective when it is used alone. Finally, unless there is some form of mass media commu- nications effort associated with the programs in Table 5, or there is a plan for implementing these countermeasures widely across the state or across the majority of communities within the state, these measures are likely to have only a specific effect. That is, their impact will be limited to those targets where such programs are implemented (e.g., in a specific school or 15 Countermeasures Target population Name Cost* Description No. of fatalities No. of injuries Highway loss ($) Reduction (%) Savings ($) School pedestrian training for children Low Pedestrians ages 6 to 12 2 57 $3,750,385 12% $450,046 Booster seat promotions Medium Children ages 4 to 8 not in booster seat 4 2,530 $80,794,661 8% $6,140,394 *Cost column is from NHTSA (2007b). Table 5. Voluntary actions.
community). For these countermeasures to result in a general effect, one that is likely to measurably reduce deaths and in- juries, they must be broadly implemented across the state and, a plan for doing so should be considered along with their adoption. Table 6 lists the nine Proven countermeasures for laws, regulations, or policies. The estimated savings associated with these countermeasures ranges from $557,915 for a child bike helmet law to $75,762,981 for a primary belt law. Each of these measures, if publicized, is likely to result in a general, rather than a specific, effect. That is, each is likely to affect a large portion of the target population across the state and, as such, is likely to produce measurable reductions in deaths and injuries. These countermeasures have three important advantages. First, implementation of a law can often be done at relatively 16 Countermeasures Target population Name Cost Description No. of fatalities No. of injuries Highway loss ($) Reduction (%) Savings ($) Bike helmet laws for children Medium Unhelmeted bikers under age 12 1 91 $3,719,434 15% $557,915 Graduated driver licensing Medium 16-year-old drivers 12 3,318 $114,143,621 20% $22,828,724 Extended learner permit Low 16-year-old drivers 12 3,318 $114,143,621 22% $25,111,597 Night restrictions Low 16-year-old drivers nighttime crashes 4 954 $32,816,291 50% $16,408,146 Passenger restrictions Low 16-year-old drivers w/ teen passengers 7 1,900 $65,373,165 33% $21,573,144 Administrative license revocation High Impaired drivers 213 9,936 $537,848,587 13% $69,920,316 Primary seat belt law Low Unbelted front seat occupants 185 28,954 $1,082,328,300 7% $75,762,981 Motorcycle helmet law Low Motorcyclists 65 2,261 $141,442,973 20% $28,288,595 Reduced speed limits (for pedestrian safety) Low Pedestrians in 60km/h (37 mph) urban zones 16 489 $32,154,461 25% $ 8,038,615 Table 6. Laws, regulations, and policies. Countermeasures Target population Name Cost Description No. of fatalities No of injuries Highway loss ($) Reduction (%) Savings ($) Sobriety checkpoints High Impaired drivers 213 9,936 $537,848,587 20% $107,569,717 Short, high- visibility belt law enforcement High Unbelted front seat occupants 185 28,954 $1,082,328,300 3% $27,274,673 Automated enforcement: speed cameras High Speeding drivers 162 14,177 $609,535,127 20% $121,907,025 Mass media to support alcohol enforcement or other program High Impaired drivers 213 100 $537,848,587 13% $69,920,316 Community program including age-21 enforcement High Drinking drivers under age 21 39 1,830 $99,061,459 10% $9,906,146 Table 7. Laws plus enhancements.
modest cost. Second, there is some permanence to their im- pact (i.e., once a safety measure becomes law it tends to remain law). Thus, it is often true that these are one-time costs with benefits seen year after year thereafter. Third, all laws have the potential for general, rather than specific, effects. Unlike an education program (or an unpublicized sanction), for which exposure tends to be limited, laws potentially affect everyone within the jurisdiction covered by them. Two of the require- ments for laws to be effective are that they are enforced and that they (both the law and the enforcement) are publicized. Thus, the costs of enforcement and publicity should also be considered when adopting any of these laws. Table 7 lists the five Proven countermeasures for laws plus enhancements. The estimated savings associated with these countermeasures range from $9,906,146 for community programs including age-21 enforcement to $107,569,717 for sobriety checkpoints and $121,907,025 for automated enforce- ment. Like laws, each of these countermeasures, if fully imple- mented and publicized, has a strong potential for providing a general effect and, as such, each is likely to result in mea- surable reductions in deaths and injuries. These countermeasures are characterized by a very high payoff. However, they can also involve high implementation costs. For instance, in order for sobriety checkpoints to realize their full potential, they need to be implemented across the entire jurisdiction throughout the year. That is because their implementation needs to convince all (or at least most) mo- torists that they have a very real chance of being arrested should they choose to drink and drive. Available data suggest that drivers resume their typical drinking and driving behav- ior when checkpoints are discontinued. Still, $107 million is a very large savings for the âtypicalâ state with 600 fatalities, and this countermeasure should receive serious consideration. Table 8 lists the six Proven countermeasures for sanctions and treatments. The estimated savings associated with these countermeasures range from $2,905,684 for mandatory atten- dance at alcohol treatment programs to $30,819,910 for license suspensions for poor and aggressive driving records. 17 Countermeasures Target population Name Cost Description No. of fatalities No. of injuries Reduction (%) Aggressive driving: license suspension Medium Drivers w/ previous speeding convictions 47 4,250 17% Aggressive driving: individual meetings Medium Drivers w/ previous speeding convictions 47 4,250 8% Aggressive driving: group meetings Medium Drivers w/ previous speeding convictions 47 4,250 5% Aggressive driving: warning letters Medium Drivers w/ previous speeding convictions 47 4,250 4% Mandatory attendance at alcohol treatment programs Medium DUI-convicted drivers in alcohol-related crashes 16 767 7% Alcohol interlocks (when installed) Medium DUI-convicted drivers in alcohol-related crashes 16 767 Highway loss ($) $181,293,587 $181,293,587 $181,293,587 $181,293,587 $41,509,775 $41,509,775 37% Savings ($) $30,819,910 $14,503,487 $9,064,679 $7,251,743 $2,905,684 $15,358,617 Table 8. Sanctions and treatments.
