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APPENDIX B
Effectiveness Estimates for Twenty-Three
Proven Countermeasures
Class 1: Voluntary Action
School Pedestrian Training for Children: Estimated effect 12% reduction in child pedestrian injuries (Blomberg, Preusser,
Hale et al., 1983); applicable population: elementary school pedestrians; effects limited unless program is ongoing (low cost).
The effect of this countermeasure is an estimated 12% reduction in child pedestrian injuries. Its primary target is school-aged
children, which we define as children between 6 and 12 years of age. The pedestrian fatality-to-injury ratio will be used in all
calculations.
School-aged pedestrian fatalities represent 0.3% of all fatalities, resulting in an estimated 2 fatalities per state. As there are an
estimated 31 injuries per fatality, the example state is estimated to have 57 child pedestrian injuries per year, for a total estimated
cost of $3,750,385. School pedestrian training for children has an estimated 12% reduction in injuries, resulting in savings of
$450,046.
Table B1. Estimated savings for school pedestrian training countermeasure.
Total fatalities 42,642
Child pedestrian fatalities (U.S.) 129
% total fatalities (U.S.) 0.303%
Median fatalities (state) 600
Est. child ped. fatalities (state) 1.82
Pedestrian Death-to-Injury Ratio 31.43
ESTIMATED SAVINGS FOR AN EXAMPLE STATE
No. $ Fatalities $ Injuries $ Total
Fatalities 1.82 $ 2,025,338
School pedestrian training Injuries 57 $ 1,725,047 $ 3,750,385
Reduction Loss reduced by: 12%
Fatalities 1.60 $ 1,782,298
Injuries 50.2 $ 1,518,041 $ 3,300,339
Savings $ 450,046
Booster Seat Promotions: Effect varies according to type of program and baseline use. Programs have involved education directed
at children, parents, or physicians, delivered through traditional channels or via home visits; plus discounts for booster seat purchase.
Increases in booster seat use have been reported: from 61 to 75%, 0 to 22%, 43 to 67%; 13 to 26% (Ehiri, King, Ejere et al., 2006).
Durbin, Elliott, Winston et al. (2003) estimate a 59% reduction in injury for children in a booster seat rather than an adult seat belt;
applicable population: children ages 4-8 not traveling in booster seats; effects limited to duration of program (medium cost).
Booster seat promotions increase use by 13% and the effect of putting children in booster seats rather than adult seat belts is
an estimated 59% reduction in injuries. Thus, this countermeasure reduces injuries by an estimated 8%. Its primary target is
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children between 4 and 8 not traveling in booster seats in passenger vehicles. The child occupant fatality-to-injury ratio will be
used in all calculations.
Children 4 to 8 not traveling in booster seats represent 0.6% of all fatalities, resulting in an estimated 4 fatalities per state. As
there are an estimated 656 injuries per fatality, the example state is computed to have 2,530 injuries per year, for a total estimated
cost of $80,794,661. Booster seat programs have an estimated 8% reduction in injuries, resulting in savings of $6,140,394.
Table B2. Estimated savings for booster seat programs countermeasure.
Total fatalities 42,642
Fatals child occ age 4-8 not in seat 274
% total fatalities 0.643%
Median fatalities (state) 600
Est. children occ. 4-8 fatals (state) 3.86
Child occupants death-to-injury ratio 656.15
ESTIMATED SAVINGS FOR AN EXAMPLE STATE
No. $ Fatalities $ Injuries $ Total
Fatalities 3.86 $4,301,881
Booster seat programs Injuries 2,530 $76,492,780 $80,794,661
Reduction Loss reduced by: 8%
Fatalities 3.56 $3,974,938
Injuries 2,337.4 $70,679,328 $74,654,266
Savings $ 6,140,394
Class 2: Laws, Regulations, Policies
Bike Helmet Laws for Children: Grant and Rutner (2004) estimate a 15% reduction in child bicyclist fatalities attributable to
bike helmet laws; applicable population: child bikers under age 12; permanent effects (medium cost).
The effect of this countermeasure is an estimated 15% reduction in fatalities. Its primary target is bicyclists under the age
of 12. The bicyclist fatality-to-injury ratio will be used in all calculations.
Cyclists under age 12 not wearing a helmet represent 0.1% of all fatalities, resulting in an estimated 1 fatality per state. As there
are an estimated 106 injuries per fatality, the example state is computed to have 91 injuries per year, for a total estimated cost of
$3,719,434. Bike helmet laws for cyclists under age 12 have an estimated 15% reduction in fatalities, resulting in savings of $557,519.
Table B3. Estimated savings for child bike helmet law countermeasure.
Total fatalities 42,642
Bicyclists under 12, no helmet 61
% total fatalities 0.143%
Median fatalities (state) 600
Est. child cyclist fatalities (state) 0.86
Cyclist death-to-injury ratio 106.41
ESTIMATED SAVINGS FOR AN EXAMPLE STATE
No. $ Fatalities $ Injuries $ Total
Fatalities 0.86 $ 957,718
Bike helmet law for children Injuries 91 $ 2,761,716 $ 3,719,434
Reduction Loss reduced by: 15%
Fatalities 0.73 $ 814,060
Injuries 77.6 $ 2,347,459 $ 3,161,519
Savings $ 557,915
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Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL): For three-stage systems, 20-40% reduction in crashes (Shope, 2007; Baker, Chen, and Li,
2007); applicable population: 16-year-old drivers; permanent effects (medium cost).
The effect of this countermeasure is an estimated 20% reduction in crashes involving 16-year-old drivers. Its primary target
is 16-year-old drivers. The 16-year-old driver fatality-to-injury ratio will be used in all calculations.
Sixteen-year-old drivers are involved in 2% of all fatalities, resulting in an estimated 12 fatalities per state. As there are an
estimated 268 injuries per fatality, the example state is computed to have 3,318 injuries per year, for a total estimated cost of
$114,143,621. GDL has an estimated 20% reduction in crashes, resulting in savings of $22,828,724.
Table B4. Estimated savings for GDL countermeasure.
Total fatalities 42,642
Fatalities involving 16 y/o driver 880
% total fatalities 2.064%
Median fatalities (state) 600
Est. fatals inv. 16 y/o drivers (state) 12.38
Death-to-injury ratio inv 16 y/o driver 267.96
ESTIMATED SAVINGS FOR AN EXAMPLE STATE
No. $ Fatalities $ Injuries $ Total
GDL 3 stages Fatalities 12.38 $13,816,260
Injuries 3,318 $ 100,327,361 $114,143,621
Reduction 20%
Loss reduced by:
Fatalities 9.91 $11,053,008
Injuries 2,654.3 $ 80,261,889 $ 91,314,897
Savings $ 22,828,724
Extended Learner Permit: Reduction of 22-33% in 16-year-old crashes if minimum permit age 16 and 6-month minimum
holding period (Agent, Steenbergen, Pigman et al., 1998; Ulmer, Ferguson, Williams et al., 2001; Mayhew, Simpson, Desmond
et al., 2003); applicable population: 16-year-old drivers; permanent effects (low cost).
The effect of this countermeasure is an estimated 22% reduction in crashes involving 16-year-old drivers if the minimum permit
age is 16 with a 6-month minimum holding period. Its primary target is 16-year-old drivers. The 16-year-old driver fatality-to-
injury ratio will be used in all calculations.
Sixteen-year-old drivers are involved in 2% of all fatalities, resulting in an estimated 12 fatalities per state. As there are an
estimated 268 injuries per fatality, the example state is computed to have 3,318 injuries per year, for a total estimated cost of
$114,143,621. The extended learner permit has an estimated 22% reduction in crashes, resulting in savings of $25,111,597.
Table B5. Estimated savings for extended learner permit countermeasure.
Total fatalities 42,642
Fatalities involving 16 y/o driver 880
% total fatalities 2.064%
Median fatalities (state) 600
Est. fatals inv. 16 y/o drivers (state) 12.38
Death-to-injury ratio involving 16 y/o
driver 267.96
ESTIMATED SAVINGS FOR AN EXAMPLE STATE
No. $ Fatalities $ Injuries $ Total
Fatalities 12.38 $13,816,260
Extended learner permit Injuries 3,318 $100,327,361 $114,143,621
Reduction Loss reduced by 22%
Fatalities 9.66 $10,776,683
Injuries 2,588 $ 78,255,342 $ 89,032,024
Savings $ 25,111,597
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Night Restrictions: On average, 50% reduction in nighttime crashes (9 P.M. to 6 A.M.) (Williams, 2007b); applicable
population: 16-year-old drivers; permanent effects (low cost).
The effect of this countermeasure is an estimated 50% reduction in nighttime crashes (9 P.M. to 6 A.M.) involving
16-year-old drivers. Its primary target is 16-year-old drivers. The 16-year-old driver fatality-to-injury ratio will be used in all
calculations.
Nighttime fatalities involving 16-year-old drivers represent 0.6% of all fatalities, resulting in an estimated 4 fatalities per state.
As there are an estimated 268 injuries per fatality, the example state is computed to have 954 injuries per year, for a total esti-
mated cost of $32,816,291. The nighttime (9 P.M. to 6 A.M.) restrictions have an estimated 50% reduction in nighttime crashes,
resulting in savings of $16,408,146.
Table B6. Estimated savings for night restrictions countermeasure.
Total fatalities 42,642
Fatalities involving 16 y/o drivers in
nighttime crashes 253
% total fatalities 0.593%
Median fatalities (state) 600
Estimated fatalities involving 16 y/o
drivers in nighttime crashes (state) 3.56
Death-to-injury ratio involving 16 y/o drivers 267.96
ESTIMATED SAVINGS FOR AN EXAMPLE STATE
$
No. Fatalities $ Injuries $ Total
Fatalities 3.56 $3,972,175
Night restrictions (9 P.M. to 6 A.M.) Injuries 954 $28,844,116 $32,816,291
Reduction Loss reduced by: 50%
Fatalities 1.78 $1,986,087
Injuries 477.0 $14,422,058 $16,408,146
Savings $16,408,146
Passenger Restrictions: About a 33% reduction in 16-year-old fatal crashes in which teen passengers are injured or killed
(Williams, 2007b); applicable population: 16-year-old drivers, permanent effects (low cost).
The effect of this countermeasure is an estimated 33% reduction in 16-year-old driver fatal crashes in which a teen passenger
was injured or killed. Its primary target is 16-year-old drivers with teen passengers. The 16-year-old driver fatality-to-injury ratio
will be used in all calculations.
Table B7. Estimated savings for passenger restrictions countermeasure.
Total fatalities 42,642
Fatalities involving 16 y/o drivers with
teen passengers 504
% total fatalities 1.182%
Median fatalities (state) 600
Est. fatalities involving 16 y/o drivers
with teen passenger (state) 7.09
Death-to-injury ratio involving 16 y/o
drivers 267.96
ESTIMATED SAVINGS FOR AN EXAMPLE STATE
$
No. Fatalities $ Injuries $ Total
Fatalities 7.09 $7,912,949
Passenger restrictions Injuries 1,900 $57,460,216 $65,373,165
Reduction Loss reduced by: 33%
Fatalities 4.75 $5,301,676
Injuries 1,273.2 $38,498,345 $43,800,020
Savings $21,573,144
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Fatalities involving 16-year-old drivers with teen passenger(s) represent 1% of all fatalities, resulting in an estimated 7 fatali-
ties per state. As there are an estimated 268 injuries per fatality, the example state is computed to have 1,900 injuries per year,
for a total estimated cost of $65,373,165. The passenger restrictions have an estimated 33% reduction in the above described
crashes, resulting in savings of $21,573,144.
Administrative License Revocation Law: Reduction of 13-15% in alcohol-related crashes (Wagenaar, Zobek, and Williams,
2000; Ross, 1987, 1991; Zador, Lund, and Weinberg, 1989; Voas and Tippetts, 1999); applicable population: alcohol-impaired
drivers; permanent effects (high cost).
Table B8. Estimated savings for administrative license revocation countermeasure.
Total fatalities 42,642
Fatalities involving alcohol-
impaired drivers 15,121
% total fatalities 35.460%
Median fatalities (state) 600
Estimated alcohol-impaired
related fatalities (state) 212.76
Alcohol-related death-to-injury ratio 46.7
ESTIMATED SAVINGS FOR AN EXAMPLE STATE
No. $ Fatalities $ Injuries $ Total
Fatalities 212.76 $237,404,168
Administrative license revocation Injuries 9,936 $300,444,419 $537,848,587
Reduction Loss reduced by: 13%
Fatalities 185.10 $206,541,626
Injuries 8,644.3 $261,386,645 $467,928,271
Savings $ 69,920,316
The effect of this countermeasure is an estimated 13% reduction in alcohol-related crashes. Its primary target is alcohol-
impaired drivers (BAC .08). The alcohol related fatality-to-injury ratio will be used in all calculations.
Fatalities involving alcohol-impaired drivers represent 35% of all fatalities, resulting in an estimated 213 fatalities per state. As there
are an estimated 47 injuries per fatality, the example state is computed to have 9,936 injuries per year, for a total estimated cost of
$537,848,587. Administrative license revocation law has an estimated 13% reduction in crashes, resulting in savings of $69,920,316.
Primary Seat Belt Law: Reduction of 7-8% in fatalities (Farmer and Williams, 2005; Chaudhary and Solomon, under review);
applicable population: front seat occupants in passenger vehicles; permanent effects (low cost).
Table B9. Estimated savings for primary seat belt law countermeasure.
Total fatalities 42,642
Front seat occupants unbelted 13,173
% total fatalities 30.892%
Median fatalities (state) 600
Estimated front seat occupant
fatalities (state) 185.35
Front seat occupants >13 death-
to-injury ratio 156.21
ESTIMATED SAVINGS FOR AN EXAMPLE STATE
No. $ Fatalities $ Injuries $ Total
Fatalities 185.35 $206,819,992
Primary seat belt law Injuries 28,954 $875,508,308 $1,082,328,300
Reduction Loss reduced by: 7%
Fatalities 172.38 $192,342,593
Injuries 26,927.1 $814,222,726 $1,006,565,319
Savings $ 75,762,981
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The effect of this countermeasure is an estimated 7% reduction in fatalities. Its primary target is unbelted front seat outboard
occupants of passenger vehicles (age 13 and up). The front seat occupant fatality-to-injury ratio will be used in all calculations.
Unbelted front seat occupants age 13 and over represent 31% of all fatalities, resulting in an estimated 185 fatalities per state. As
there are an estimated 156 injuries per fatality, the example state is computed to have 28,954 injuries per year, for a total estimated
cost of $1,082,328,300. Primary seat belt law has an estimated 7% reduction in fatalities, resulting in savings of $75,762,981.
Motorcycle Helmet Use Law: Reduction of 20-40% in fatalities (GAO, 1991); applicable population: motorcyclists; perma-
nent effects (low cost).
The effect of this countermeasure is an estimated 20% reduction in fatalities. Its primary target is motorcyclists. The motor-
cyclist fatality-to-injury ratio will be used in all calculations.
Table B10. Estimated savings for universal helmet use law countermeasure.
Total fatalities 42,642
Motorcyclists (all) 4654
% total fatalities 10.914%
Median fatalities (state) 600
Est. motorcyclist fatalities (state) 65.48
Motorcyclist death-to-injury ratio 34.53
ESTIMATED SAVINGS FOR AN EXAMPLE STATE
No. $ Fatalities $ Injuries $ Total
Fatalities 65.48 $73,069,175
Universal helmet use law Injuries 2,261 $ 68,373,798 $ 141,442,973
Reduction Loss reduced by: 20%
Fatalities 52.39 $58,455,340
Injuries 1,809.0 $ 54,699,038 $ 113,154,379
Savings $ 28,288,595
Motorcyclists represent 11% of all fatalities, resulting in an estimated 65 fatalities per state. As there are an estimated 35 injuries
per fatality, the example state is computed to have 2,261 injuries per year, for a total estimated cost of $141,442,973. Universal
helmet laws for motorcyclists have an estimated 20% reduction in fatalities, resulting in savings of $28,288,595.
Reduced Speed Limit: Reduction of 25-30% in pedestrian fatalities associated with a reduction in speed limit from 60 km/h
to 50 km/h in urban areas (Fieldwick and Brown, 1987; Preston, 1990; Walz, Hoefliger, and Fehlmann, 1983); applicable popu-
lation: pedestrians of all ages in urban areas; permanent effects (low cost).
Table B11. Estimated savings for reduced speed limit countermeasure.
Total fatalities 42,642
Ped. fatalities in 60km/h urban zones 1,106
% total fatalities 2.594%
Median fatalities (state) 600
Estimated pedestrian fatalities in 60
km/h urban zones (state) 15.56
Pedestrian death-to-injury ratio 31.43
ESTIMATED SAVINGS FOR AN EXAMPLE STATE
No. $ Fatalities $ Injuries $ Total
Fatalities 15.56 $17,364,527
Reduced speed limit Injuries 489 $14,789,935 $32,154,461
Reduction Loss reduced by: 25%
Fatalities 11.67 $13,023,395
Injuries 366.8 $11,092,451 $24,115,846
Savings $ 8,038,615
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The effect of this countermeasure is an estimated 25% reduction in pedestrian fatalities when urban speed limit is reduced
from 60 km/h to 50 km/h. Its primary target is pedestrians in urban areas with a speed limit of 60 km/h. We define urban areas
with speed limits between 35 mph and 40 mph as the target zones. The pedestrian fatality-to-injury ratio will be used in all
calculations.
Pedestrian fatalities in the target zones represent 3% of all fatalities, resulting in an estimated 16 fatalities per state. As there
are an estimated 31 injuries per fatality, the example state is estimated to have 489 urban pedestrian injuries per year, for a total
estimated cost of $32,154,461. Reducing speed limits from 60 km/h to 50 km/h in urban areas has an estimated 25% reduction
in pedestrian fatalities, resulting in savings of $8,038,615.
Class 3: Laws Plus Enhancements
Sobriety Checkpoints: Reduction of 20% in alcohol-related fatal and injury crashes (Elder, Shults, Sleet et al., 2002); applica-
ble population: alcohol impaired; effects only for duration of checkpoints (high cost).
The effect of this countermeasure is an estimated 20% reduction in alcohol-related fatal and injury crashes. Its primary target
is impaired drivers (BAC .08). The alcohol-related fatality-to-injury ratio will be used in all calculations.
Fatalities involving alcohol-impaired drivers represent 35% of all fatalities, resulting in an estimated 213 fatalities per state.
As there are an estimated 47 injuries per fatality, the example state is computed to have 9,936 injuries per year, for a total esti-
mated cost of $537,848,587. Sobriety checkpoints have an estimated 20% reduction in crashes, resulting in savings of
$107,569,717.
Table B12. Estimated savings for sobriety checkpoints countermeasure.
Total fatalities 42,642
Fatalities involving alcohol-
impaired drivers 15,121
% total fatalities 35.460%
Median fatalities (state) 600
Estimated alcohol-impaired-
related fatalities (state) 212.76
Alcohol-related death-to-injury
ratio 46.7
ESTIMATED SAVINGS FOR AN EXAMPLE STATE
No. $ Fatalities $ Injuries $ Total
Fatalities 212.76 $237,404,168
Sobriety checkpoints Injuries 9,936 $300,444,419 $537,848,587
Reduction Loss reduced by: 20%
Fatalities 170.21 $189,923,334
Injuries 7,948.8 $240,355,535 $430,278,870
Savings $107,569,717
Short, High-Visibility Belt Law Enforcement: Increase of 4-6 percentage points in belt use; applicable population: unbelted
front seat occupants; effects primarily while program is ongoing (high cost).
The effect of this countermeasure is an estimated increase of 4 percentage points in belt use. NHTSA estimates that for every
1-percentage-point increase in belt use, an additional 270 lives are saved (2004 data). If belt use were to increase by 4 percent-
age points, 1,070 lives would be saved. Based on 2004 FARS data, this would represent a 2.52% decrease in fatalities. The pri-
mary target for this countermeasure is unbelted front seat outboard occupants (13 and over in passenger vehicles). The front
seat occupant fatality-to-injury ratio will be used in all calculations.
Unbelted front seat occupants age 13 and over represent 31% of all fatalities, resulting in an estimated 185 fatalities per state.
As there are an estimated 156 injuries per fatality, the example state is computed to have 28,954 injuries per year, for a total
estimated cost of $1,082,328,300. Short, high-visibility law enforcement has an estimated 3% reduction in fatalities, resulting in
savings of $27,274,673.
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Table B13. Estimated savings for short, high-visibility belt law enforcement countermeasure.
Total fatalities 42,642
Unbelted front seat
occupants fatalities 13,173
% total fatalities 30.892%
Median fatalities (state) 600
Est. unbelted front seat
occupant fatalities (state) 185.35
Front seat occupants >13
death-to-injury ratio 156.21
ESTIMATED SAVINGS FOR AN EXAMPLE STATE
No. $ Fatalities $ Injuries $ Total
Short, high-visibility belt law Fatalities 185.35 $206,819,992
enforcement Injuries 28,954 $875,508,308 $1,082,328,300
Reduction Loss reduced by: 3%
Fatalities 180.68 $201,608,129
Injuries 28,224.3 $853,445,498 $1,055,053,627
Savings $ 27,274,673
Automated Enforcement for Speed, Red Light Running: Speed cameras: on average, 20-40% reduction in crashes, based on
studies in Canada, Australia, and Europe (Pilkington and Kinra, 2005); red-light cameras: 16% reduction in all injury crashes,
24% reduction in right-angle crashes, no significant increase in rear-end crashes (Aeron-Thomas and Hess, 2005); applicable
populations: drivers running red lights or speeding; permanent effects where used (high cost).
The effect of this countermeasure (speed cameras) is an estimated 20% reduction in crashes. Its primary target is speed-related
crashes. The speed-related fatality-to-injury ratio will be used in all calculations.
Table B14. Estimated savings for speed cameras countermeasure.
Total fatalities 42,642
Speed-related fatalities 11,518
% total fatalities 27.011%
Median fatalities (state) 600
Est. speed-related fatalities
(state) 162.07
Speed-related death-to-injury
ratio 87.48
ESTIMATED SAVINGS FOR AN EXAMPLE STATE
No. $ Fatalities $ Injuries $ Total
Fatalities 162.07 $180,836,003
Speed cameras Injuries 14,177 $428,699,124 $609,535,127
Reduction Loss reduced by: 20%
Fatalities 129.65 $144,668,803
Injuries 11,342.0 $342,959,299 $487,628,102
Savings $121,907,025
Speed-related fatalities represent 27% of all fatalities, resulting in an estimated 162 fatalities per state. As there are an estimated
87 injuries per fatality, the example state is computed to have 14,177 injuries per year, for a total estimated cost of $609,535,127.
Speed cameras have an estimated 20% reduction in crashes, resulting in savings of $121,907,025.
Mass Media Supporting Alcohol Enforcement (Top-Line Programs): Reduction of 13% in alcohol-related crashes, with the
caution that this is based on top-line programs (Elder, Shults, Sleet et al., 2002); applicable population: alcohol-impaired driv-
ers; effects while program ongoing (high cost).
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The effect of this countermeasure is an estimated 13% reduction in alcohol-related crashes (note that this estimate is based
on top-line programs only). Its primary target is alcohol-impaired drivers (BAC .08). The alcohol-related fatality-to-injury
ratio will be used in all calculations.
Fatalities involving alcohol-impaired drivers represent 35% of all fatalities, resulting in an estimated 213 fatalities per state.
As there are an estimated 47 injuries per fatality, the example state is computed to have 9,936 injuries per year, for a total esti-
mated cost of $537,848,587. Mass media supporting alcohol enforcement has an estimated 13% reduction in crashes, resulting
in savings of $69,920,316.
Table B15. Estimated savings for mass media support of alcohol enforcement countermeasure.
Total fatalities 42,642
Fatalities involving alcohol-
impaired drivers 15,121
% total fatalities 35.460%
Median fatalities (state) 600
Estimated alcohol-impaired-
related fatalities (state) 212.76
Alcohol-related death-to-injury
ratio 46.7
ESTIMATED SAVINGS FOR AN EXAMPLE STATE
No. $ Fatalities $ Injuries $ Total
Mass media supporting alcohol Fatalities 212.76 $237,404,168
enforcement Injuries 9,936 $300,444,419 $537,848,587
Reduction Loss reduced by: 13%
Fatalities 185.10 $206,541,626
Injuries 8,644.3 $261,386,645 $467,928,271
Savings $ 69,920,316
Community Programs Including Age-21 Enforcement: Reduction of 10-25% in crashes, based on a study by Holder,
Gruenewald, Ponicki et al. (2000), who found that single-vehicle nighttime crashes decreased 10-11% more than in comparison
communities, and a study by Hingson, McGovern, Howland et al. (1996), where there was a 25% greater reduction in fatal
crashes in study communities than in the rest of Massachusetts (programs were vastly different but both incorporated age-21
enforcement); applicable population: alcohol users under age 21; effects while program ongoing (high cost).
Table B16. Estimated savings for community programs countermeasure.
Total fatalities 42,642
Fatalities involving drivers <21,
BAC .01 2785
% total fatalities 6.531%
Median fatalities (state) 600
Estimated fatalities involving
drivers <21, BAC .01 (state) 39.19
Alcohol-related death-to-injury ratio 46.7
ESTIMATED SAVINGS FOR AN EXAMPLE STATE
No. $ Fatalities $ Injuries $ Total
Community programs including age- Fatalities 39.19 $43,725,323
21 enforcement Injuries 1,830 $55,336,136 $99,061,459
Reduction Loss reduced by: 10%
Fatalities 35.27 $39,352,791
Injuries 1,647.0 $49,802,522 $89,155,313
Savings $ 9,906,146
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The effect of this countermeasure is an estimated 10% reduction in crashes. Its primary target is drivers under 21 with
BAC .01. The alcohol-related fatality-to-injury ratio will be used in all calculations.
Fatalities involving drivers under 21 with BAC .01 represent 7% of all fatalities, resulting in an estimated 39 fatalities per
state. As there are an estimated 47 injuries per fatality, the example state is computed to have 1,830 injuries per year, for a total
estimated cost of $99,061,459. Community programs including age-21 enforcement have an estimated 10% reduction in crashes,
resulting in savings of $9,906,146.
Class 4: Sanctions and Treatments
Aggressive Driving/Speeding Penalties: Crash reduction effects for license suspension 17%, individual meetings 8%, group
meetings 5%, and warning letters 4% (Masten and Peck, 2004); applicable population: apprehended traffic violators; effects while
sanctions are in force, may not last (medium cost).
These countermeasures' primary target is apprehended traffic violators. For this project, we will define the target as drivers
with previous speeding convictions since data regarding previous aggressive driving convictions are not available in FARS.
License Suspension (Medium Cost)
The effect of this countermeasure is an estimated 17% reduction in crashes. Its primary target is drivers with previous speed con-
victions involved in aggressive-driving-related crashes. The aggressive driving fatality-to-injury ratio will be used in all calculations.
Aggressive-driving-related fatalities involving drivers with previous speed convictions represent 8% of all fatalities, resulting
in an estimated 47 fatalities per state. As there are an estimated 90 injuries per fatality, the example state is computed to have
4,250 injuries per year, for a total estimated cost of $181,293,587. License suspension has an estimated 17% reduction in crashes,
resulting in savings of $30,819,910.
Table B17. Estimated savings for license suspension countermeasure.
Total fatalities
42,642
Fatalities involving
aggressive drivers with
prev. speed conv. 3,362
% total fatalities 7.884%
Median fatalities (state) 600
Est. fatalities involving
prev. speed conv. (state) 47.31
Aggressive driving death-to-
injury ratio 89.84
ESTIMATED SAVINGS FOR AN EXAMPLE STATE
No. $ Fatalities $ Injuries $ Total
Fatalities 47.31 $52,784,393
License suspension Injuries 4,250 $128,509,194 $181,293,587
Reduction Loss reduced by: 17%
Fatalities 39.26 $43,811,047
Injuries 3,527.4 $106,662,631 $150,473,678
Savings $ 30,819,910
Individual Meetings (Low Cost)
The effect of this countermeasure is an estimated 8% reduction in crashes. Its primary target is apprehended traffic violators
involved in aggressive-driving-related crashes. The aggressive driving fatality-to-injury ratio will be used in all calculations.
Aggressive-driving-related fatalities involving drivers with previous speed convictions represent 8% of all fatalities, resulting
in an estimated 47 fatalities per state. As there are an estimated 90 injuries per fatality, the example state is computed to have
4,250 injuries per year, for a total estimated cost of $181,293,587. Individual meetings have an estimated 8% reduction in crashes,
resulting in savings of $14,503,487.
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Table B18. Estimated savings for individual meetings countermeasure.
Total fatalities
42,642
Fatalities involving
aggressive drivers with
prev. speed conv. 3,362
% total fatalities 7.884%
Median fatalities (state) 600
Est. fatalities involving
prev. speed conv. (state) 47.31
Aggressive driving death-to-
injury ratio 89.84
ESTIMATED SAVINGS FOR AN EXAMPLE STATE
No. $ Fatalities $ Injuries $ Total
Fatalities 47.31 $52,784,393
Individual meetings Injuries 4,250 $128,509,194 $181,293,587
Reduction Loss reduced by: 8%
Fatalities 43.52 $48,561,642
Injuries 3,909.9 $118,228,458 $166,790,100
Savings $ 14,503,487
Group Meetings (Medium Cost)
The effect of this countermeasure is an estimated 5% reduction in crashes. Its primary target is apprehended traffic violators
involved in aggressive-driving-related crashes. The aggressive driving fatality-to-injury ratio will be used in all calculations.
Aggressive-driving-related fatalities involving drivers with previous speed convictions represent 8% of all fatalities, resulting
in an estimated 47 fatalities per state. As there are an estimated 90 injuries per fatality, the example state is computed to have
4,250 injuries per year, for a total estimated cost of $181,293,587. Group meetings have an estimated 5% reduction in crashes,
resulting in savings of $9,064,679.
Table B19. Estimated savings for group meetings countermeasure.
Total fatalities
42,642
Fatalities involving
aggressive drivers with
prev. speed conv. 3,362
% total fatalities 7.884%
Median fatalities (state) 600
Est. fatalities involving
prev. speed conv. (state) 47.31
Aggressive driving death-to-
injury ratio 89.84
ESTIMATED SAVINGS FOR AN EXAMPLE STATE
No. $ Fatalities $ Injuries $ Total
Fatalities 47.31 $52,784,393
Group meetings Injuries 4,250 $128,509,194 $181,293,587
Reduction Loss reduced by: 5%
Fatalities 44.94 $50,145,174
Injuries 4,037.4 $122,083,734 $172,228,908
Savings $ 9,064,679
Warning Letters (Medium Cost)
The effect of this countermeasure is an estimated 4% reduction in crashes. Its primary target is apprehended traffic
violators involved in aggressive-driving-related crashes. The aggressive driving fatality-to-injury ratio will be used in all
calculations.
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Aggressive-driving-related fatalities involving drivers with previous speed convictions represent 8% of all fatalities, resulting
in an estimated 47 fatalities per state. As there are an estimated 90 injuries per fatality, the example state is computed to have
4,250 injuries per year, for a total estimated cost of $181,293,587. Warning letters have an estimated 4% reduction in crashes,
resulting in savings of $7,251,743.
Table B20. Estimated savings for warning letters countermeasure.
Total fatalities
42,642
Fatalities involving
aggressive drivers with
prev. speed conv. 3,362
% total fatalities 7.884%
Median fatalities (state) 600
Est. fatalities involving
prev. speed convictions
(state) 47.31
Aggressive driving death-to-
injury ratio 89.84
ESTIMATED SAVINGS FOR AN EXAMPLE STATE
No. $ Fatalities $ Injuries $ Total
Fatalities 47.31 $52,784,393
Warning letters Injuries 4,250 $128,509,194 $181,293,587
Reduction Loss reduced by: 4%
Fatalities 45.41 $50,673,018
Injuries 4,079.9 $123,368,826 $174,041,844
Savings $ 7,251,743
Mandatory Attendance at Alcohol Treatment Programs: Reduction in alcohol-related crashes, 7-9% on average (Wells-Parker
Banger-Drowns, McMillen et al., 1995); applicable population: DUI-convicted population; effect duration unknown (medium cost).
The effect of this countermeasure is an estimated 7% reduction in alcohol-related crashes. Its primary target is drivers with
previous DWI convictions involved in alcohol-related crashes (i.e., BAC .01). The alcohol-related fatality-to-injury ratio will
be used in all calculations.
Alcohol-related fatalities involving drivers with previous DWI represent 3% of all fatalities, resulting in an estimated
16 fatalities per state. As there are an estimated 47 injuries per fatality, the example state is computed to have 767 injuries
per year, for a total estimated cost of $41,509,775. Alcohol treatment programs have an estimated 7% reduction in crashes,
resulting in savings of $2,905,684.
Table B21. Estimated savings for alcohol treatment program countermeasure.
Total fatalities
42,642
Alcohol-related fatalities
involving drivers with
previous DWI 1,167
% total fatalities 2.737%
Median fatalities (state) 600
Est. alcohol-related fatalities
inv. drivers with prev. DWI
(state) 16.42
Alcohol related death-to-injury
ratio 46.7
ESTIMATED SAVINGS FOR AN EXAMPLE STATE
No. $ Fatalities $ Injuries $ Total
Fatalities 16.42 $18,322,245
Alcohol treatment program Injuries 767 $23,187,530 $41,509,775
Reduction Loss reduced by: 7%
Fatalities 15.27 $17,039,688
Injuries 713.2 $21,564,403 $38,604,090
Savings $ 2,905,684
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Alcohol Interlocks: Reduction of 37-90% in recidivism (Willis, Lybrand, and Bellamy, 2004; Beirness and Marques, 2004); appli-
cable population: DUI convicted population; duration of effect limited to period when interlock is present (medium cost).
The effect of this countermeasure is an estimated 37% reduction in recidivism. Its primary target is drivers with previous DWI
convictions involved in alcohol-related crashes. The assumption is that 37% of previously convicted drivers with an installed
alcohol interlock system would not drink and drive, and thus would not be involved in alcohol-related crashes. The alcohol-
related fatality-to-injury ratio will be used in all calculations.
Alcohol-related fatalities involving drivers with previous DWI represent 3% of all fatalities, resulting in an estimated
16 fatalities per state. As there are an estimated 47 injuries per fatality, the example state is estimated to have 767 alcohol-
related injuries per year, for a total estimated cost of $41,509,775. Alcohol interlocks for convicted DWI drivers have an esti-
mated 37% reduction in recidivism, resulting in savings of $15,358,617.
Table B22. Estimated savings for alcohol interlock countermeasure.
Total fatalities 42,642
Alcohol-related fatalities inv.
drivers with previous DWI 1,167
% total fatalities 2.737%
Median fatalities (state) 600
Est. alcohol-related fatalities
inv. drivers with prev. DWI
(state) 16.42
Alcohol related death-to-injury
ratio 46.7
ESTIMATED SAVINGS FOR AN EXAMPLE STATE
No. $ Fatalities $ Injuries $ Total
Fatalities 16.42 $18,322,245
Alcohol interlock Injuries 767 $23,187,530 $41,509,775
Reduction Loss reduced by: 37%
Fatalities 10.34 $11,543,014
Injuries 483.1 $14,608,144 $26,151,158
Savings $15,358,617
