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probability of being imposed, and have a high degree of in- The following percentage of countermeasures are rated
trusiveness (i.e., involve a real amount of money or time) are Proven or Likely to work in each class of countermeasures:
most likely to work. If there is low intrusiveness, if sanctions
are not well known to violators, are unlikely to be applied, or · Sixteen percent of Class 1: Voluntary Action;
if the penalty is not very meaningful, success is unlikely. · Fifty-three percent of Class 2: Laws, Regulations, Policies;
· Seventy-two percent of Class 3: Laws Plus Enhancements;
and
Proven
· Sixty-seven percent of Class 4: Sanctions and Treatments.
· Aggressive driving, speeding penalties (e.g., suspension,
warning letters); By topic area, there are differences in expected effective-
· Restrictions on plea bargains; ness. Effectiveness is most likely in the occupant restraint
· Court monitoring; group where 82% of the countermeasures are rated Proven
· Mandatory attendance at alcohol treatment; or Likely; followed by alcohol (67%); aggressive driving/
· Close monitoring of DUIs; speeding (50%); young drivers (38%); bicycles (33%); pedes-
· Alcohol interlocks; trians (30%); elderly drivers (14%); motorcycles (11%); and
· Brief interventions--alcohol; distracted/fatigued drivers (none at this time).
· License plate impoundment; How effective are those countermeasures rated as Proven or
· Vehicle immobilization; and Likely? Ideally, for all countermeasures rated as Proven, and for
· Vehicle impoundment. many rated as Likely, it would be possible to derive a numerical
estimate of the effect size, the expected percentage reduction in
injuries. However, it is not always possible to estimate this num-
Likely
ber. Of the 47 countermeasures rated as Proven or Likely, about
· Increased belt use law penalties and half of the outcomes relate not to reductions in crashes or in-
· Simplifying and streamlining DUI statutes. juries, but to some intermediate measure (e.g., reductions in re-
cidivism, increases in arrests or convictions, decreased drinking,
increases in seat belt use). It is possible to estimate the impact of
Unknown/Uncertain/Unlikely
increases in seat belt use to decreases in injuries, but for many
· Vehicle forfeiture (+); other intermediate measures, there is no credible way to do so.
· GDL penalties (0); There also are a few cases where the expected effect relates to
· Driving under the influence (DUI) fines (0); crashes or injuries, but not enough information is available to
· DUI jail (0); extract a numerical estimate of the effect.
· High BAC sanctions (+); and In addition to the effect size, there are other important
· DWI (driving while intoxicated) courts (+). factors in determining the overall impact of any countermea-
sure. One of these factors is the size of the population affected.
For example, a measure affecting the general population
Summary
can have more impact than one affecting a specific subgroup
Overall, 45% of the 104 countermeasures are considered (e.g., teenage drivers only). Another is the expected duration of
effective (33% proven; 12% likely). By comparison, the other the effect. For example, although the effects of laws can vary
55% are less likely to work. This assessment is based on the over time, depending on such factors as the amount of public-
fact that evidence for effectiveness is uncertain or unknown ity and enforcement, their permanence gives them an advantage
and/or the criteria for what is likely to work are not met compared with programs that are one-time efforts. Duration
(52%), or because research indicates that these countermea- can also refer to the length of time the positive effects of a pol-
sures increase crashes (3%). icy last on individuals affected, for example, license suspension.
