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NATIONAL
NCHRP REPORT 622
COOPERATIVE
HIGHWAY
RESEARCH
PROGRAM
Effectiveness of Behavioral
Highway Safety Countermeasures
OCR for page R2
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2008 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE*
OFFICERS
CHAIR: Debra L. Miller, Secretary, Kansas DOT, Topeka
VICE CHAIR: Adib K. Kanafani, Cahill Professor of Civil Engineering, University of California, Berkeley
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: Robert E. Skinner, Jr., Transportation Research Board
MEMBERS
J. Barry Barker, Executive Director, Transit Authority of River City, Louisville, KY
Allen D. Biehler, Secretary, Pennsylvania DOT, Harrisburg
John D. Bowe, President, Americas Region, APL Limited, Oakland, CA
Larry L. Brown, Sr., Executive Director, Mississippi DOT, Jackson
Deborah H. Butler, Executive Vice President, Planning, and CIO, Norfolk Southern Corporation, Norfolk, VA
William A.V. Clark, Professor, Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles
David S. Ekern, Commissioner, Virginia DOT, Richmond
Nicholas J. Garber, Henry L. Kinnier Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville
Jeffrey W. Hamiel, Executive Director, Metropolitan Airports Commission, Minneapolis, MN
Edward A. (Ned) Helme, President, Center for Clean Air Policy, Washington, DC
Will Kempton, Director, California DOT, Sacramento
Susan Martinovich, Director, Nevada DOT, Carson City
Michael D. Meyer, Professor, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
Michael R. Morris, Director of Transportation, North Central Texas Council of Governments, Arlington
Neil J. Pedersen, Administrator, Maryland State Highway Administration, Baltimore
Pete K. Rahn, Director, Missouri DOT, Jefferson City
Sandra Rosenbloom, Professor of Planning, University of Arizona, Tucson
Tracy L. Rosser, Vice President, Corporate Traffic, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., Bentonville, AR
Rosa Clausell Rountree, Executive Director, Georgia State Road and Tollway Authority, Atlanta
Henry G. (Gerry) Schwartz, Jr., Chairman (retired), Jacobs/Sverdrup Civil, Inc., St. Louis, MO
C. Michael Walton, Ernest H. Cockrell Centennial Chair in Engineering, University of Texas, Austin
Linda S. Watson, CEO, LYNXCentral Florida Regional Transportation Authority, Orlando
Steve Williams, Chairman and CEO, Maverick Transportation, Inc., Little Rock, AR
EX OFFICIO MEMBERS
Thad Allen (Adm., U.S. Coast Guard), Commandant, U.S. Coast Guard, Washington, DC
Joseph H. Boardman, Federal Railroad Administrator, U.S.DOT
Rebecca M. Brewster, President and COO, American Transportation Research Institute, Smyrna, GA
Paul R. Brubaker, Research and Innovative Technology Administrator, U.S.DOT
George Bugliarello, Chancellor, Polytechnic University of New York, Brooklyn, and Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Engineering,
Washington, DC
Sean T. Connaughton, Maritime Administrator, U.S.DOT
LeRoy Gishi, Chief, Division of Transportation, Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington, DC
Edward R. Hamberger, President and CEO, Association of American Railroads, Washington, DC
John H. Hill, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administrator, U.S.DOT
John C. Horsley, Executive Director, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, DC
Carl T. Johnson, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administrator, U.S.DOT
J. Edward Johnson, Director, Applied Science Directorate, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, John C. Stennis Space Center, MS
Thomas J. Madison, Jr., Administrator, Federal Highway Administration, U.S.DOT
William W. Millar, President, American Public Transportation Association, Washington, DC
Nicole R. Nason, National Highway Traffic Safety Administrator, U.S.DOT
James S. Simpson, Federal Transit Administrator, U.S.DOT
Robert A. Sturgell, Acting Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration, U.S.DOT
Robert L. Van Antwerp (Lt. Gen., U.S. Army), Chief of Engineers and Commanding General, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, DC
*Membership as of September 2008.
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NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM
NCHRP REPORT 622
Effectiveness of Behavioral
Highway Safety Countermeasures
David F. Preusser
Allan F. Williams
James L. Nichols
Julie Tison
Neil K. Chaudhary
PREUSSER RESEARCH GROUP, INC.
Trumbull, CT
Subject Areas
Safety and Human Performance
Research sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials
in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD
WASHINGTON, D.C.
2008
www.TRB.org
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NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY NCHRP REPORT 622
RESEARCH PROGRAM
Systematic, well-designed research provides the most effective Project 17-33
approach to the solution of many problems facing highway ISSN 0077-5614
administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local ISBN: 978-0-309-11754-8
interest and can best be studied by highway departments individually Library of Congress Control Number 2008909235
or in cooperation with their state universities and others. However, the © 2008 Transportation Research Board
accelerating growth of highway transportation develops increasingly
complex problems of wide interest to highway authorities. These
problems are best studied through a coordinated program of COPYRIGHT PERMISSION
cooperative research.
Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining
In recognition of these needs, the highway administrators of the written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously
American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials published or copyrighted material used herein.
initiated in 1962 an objective national highway research program Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this
employing modern scientific techniques. This program is supported on publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the
understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA,
a continuing basis by funds from participating member states of the
FMCSA, FTA, or Transit Development Corporation endorsement of a particular product,
Association and it receives the full cooperation and support of the method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for
Federal Highway Administration, United States Department of educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of
any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission
Transportation.
from CRP.
The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies was
requested by the Association to administer the research program
because of the Board's recognized objectivity and understanding of
NOTICE
modern research practices. The Board is uniquely suited for this
purpose as it maintains an extensive committee structure from which The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the National Cooperative Highway
Research Program conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of
authorities on any highway transportation subject may be drawn; it the Governing Board of the National Research Council. Such approval reflects the
possesses avenues of communications and cooperation with federal, Governing Board's judgment that the program concerned is of national importance and
state and local governmental agencies, universities, and industry; its appropriate with respect to both the purposes and resources of the National Research
Council.
relationship to the National Research Council is an insurance of
The members of the technical committee selected to monitor this project and to review this
objectivity; it maintains a full-time research correlation staff of
report were chosen for recognized scholarly competence and with due consideration for the
specialists in highway transportation matters to bring the findings of balance of disciplines appropriate to the project. The opinions and conclusions expressed
research directly to those who are in a position to use them. or implied are those of the research agency that performed the research, and, while they have
been accepted as appropriate by the technical committee, they are not necessarily those of
The program is developed on the basis of research needs identified
the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, the American
by chief administrators of the highway and transportation departments Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, or the Federal Highway
and by committees of AASHTO. Each year, specific areas of research Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation.
needs to be included in the program are proposed to the National Each report is reviewed and accepted for publication by the technical committee according
Research Council and the Board by the American Association of State to procedures established and monitored by the Transportation Research Board Executive
Committee and the Governing Board of the National Research Council.
Highway and Transportation Officials. Research projects to fulfill these
needs are defined by the Board, and qualified research agencies are The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research
Council, the Federal Highway Administration, the American Association of State Highway
selected from those that have submitted proposals. Administration and and Transportation Officials, and the individual states participating in the National
surveillance of research contracts are the responsibilities of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade
Research Council and the Transportation Research Board. or manufacturers' names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the
object of this report.
The needs for highway research are many, and the National
Cooperative Highway Research Program can make significant
contributions to the solution of highway transportation problems of
mutual concern to many responsible groups. The program, however, is
intended to complement rather than to substitute for or duplicate other
highway research programs.
Published reports of the
NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM
are available from:
Transportation Research Board
Business Office
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001
and can be ordered through the Internet at:
http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore
Printed in the United States of America
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COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAMS
CRP STAFF FOR NCHRP REPORT 622
Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs
Crawford F. Jencks, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs
Charles W. Niessner, Senior Program Officer
Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications
Maria Sabin Crawford, Assistant Editor
NCHRP PROJECT 17-33 PANEL
Field of Traffic--Area of Safety
Susan Herbel, Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Heathrow, FL (Chair)
Ronald Lipps, Maryland State Highway Administration, Hanover, MD
Edward B. Crowell, Georgia Motor Trucking Association, Smyrna, GA
Steve L. Eagan, New Mexico DOT, Santa Fe, NM
Barbara Harsha, Governors Highway Safety Association, Washington, DC
James H. Hedlund, Highway Safety North, Ithaca, NY
Marsha Lembke, North Dakota DOT, Bismarck, ND
J. Scott Osberg, AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety, Washington, DC
Robert L. Thompson, Iowa Governor's Traffic Safety Bureau, Des Moines, IA
Terecia W. Wilson, South Carolina DOT, Columbia, SC
Elizabeth A. Baker, NHTSA Liaison
Thomas "Tom" Granda, FHWA Liaison
John E. Balser, Other Liaison
Richard Pain, TRB Liaison
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FOREWORD
By Charles W. Niessner
Staff Officer
Transportation Research Board
This report presents the findings of a research project to develop a framework and guid-
ance for estimating the costs and benefits of emerging, experimental, untried, or unproven
behavioral highway safety countermeasures. This report will be of particular interest to
safety practitioners responsible for the development and implementation of the state's
Strategic Highway Safety Plan.
In 2006, the U.S. DOT reported 42,642 fatalities and nearly 3 million injuries resulting
from highway crashes nationwide. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
(NHTSA) estimates that highway crashes cost society more than $230 billion a year. To
reduce injuries, fatalities, and other costs, billions of dollars are invested every year to engi-
neer and construct improved and safer infrastructure, enforce traffic safety laws, and
educate users of the nation's highway system on safe practices.
Each year, hundreds of millions of these dollars are spent on behavioral highway safety
countermeasures without sufficient knowledge of their benefits. The lack of sound infor-
mation on the efficacy and costs of behavioral safety countermeasures such as public aware-
ness campaigns, new safety program start-ups, and enforcement programs impedes effec-
tive decision making.
With limited resources and the duty to ensure public accountability in the use of funds
available for behavioral highway safety programs, there is a need to provide decision mak-
ers with additional information to determine the countermeasures that will result in the
greatest reductions of crashes, injuries, and fatalities.
Under NCHRP Project 17-33, "Effectiveness of Behavioral Highway Safety Counter-
measures," researchers at the Preusser Research Group, Inc., developed a framework and
guidance for estimating the costs and benefits of emerging, experimental, untried, or
unproven behavioral highway safety countermeasures.
The researchers reviewed the behavioral countermeasures included in the report: Coun-
termeasures that Work: A Highway Safety Countermeasure Guide for State Highway Offices.
This report was prepared for the NHTSA by the Governors Highway Safety Association.
The 104 countermeasures in the report were divided into four groups: proven to be effec-
tive, likely to be effective, unlikely to be effective or the effects are unknown, and known to
have negative consequences. Effectiveness estimates were developed for a number of the
proven to be effective countermeasures.
The report includes a classification scheme to estimate the effectiveness of counter-
measures that are believed "likely" to work but for which evaluation evidence is not yet
available, as well as emerging and developing countermeasures that have not yet been fully
implemented or evaluated. Guidelines are presented for estimating when countermeasures
within each of these classifications are likely to be cost effective.
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CONTENTS
1 Summary
2 Chapter 1 Introduction
3 Chapter 2 Countermeasures
5 Chapter 3 Countermeasure Classification
5 Changing Driver Behavior
5 Cautions about the Countermeasures
6 Countermeasure Categories
9 Summary
10 Chapter 4 Estimation of Highway Loss
10 Target Group Size--Fatal Injury
10 Target Group Size--Nonfatal Injury
11 Cost of Fatal and Nonfatal Injury
13 Chapter 5 Estimation of Savings
13 Median State
13 Countermeasure Effectiveness
15 Proven Countermeasures
18 Chapter 6 Estimation of Cost to Implement Countermeasures
18 Political Capital
18 Resource Allocation
19 User Pay
19 Direct Cost
22 Chapter 7 Using this Guide
22 1. Identify Proven Injury Reducing Countermeasures
That Can Be Implemented
24 2a. Use Countermeasures That Are Likely To Be Effective
24 2b. Consider Proven Countermeasures with No Effectiveness Estimates
25 3. Avoid Countermeasures with Unknown and Unlikely Effectiveness
25 4. Do No Harm
26 Selection of Countermeasures
27 Shift in Strategy
28 New and Emerging Countermeasures
28 Conclusion
29 References
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33 Appendix A Unknown/Uncertain/Unlikely Countermeasures
36 Appendix B Effectiveness Estimates for Twenty-Three
Proven Countermeasures
49 Appendix C Countermeasures Likely to Work
50 Appendix D Proven Countermeasures With No Crash or
Injury Reduction Calculations
