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NATIONAL NCHRP REPORT 622 COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM Effectiveness of Behavioral Highway Safety Countermeasures
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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2008 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE* OFFICERS CHAIR: Debra L. Miller, Secretary, Kansas DOT, Topeka VICE CHAIR: Adib K. Kanafani, Cahill Professor of Civil Engineering, University of California, Berkeley EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: Robert E. Skinner, Jr., Transportation Research Board MEMBERS J. Barry Barker, Executive Director, Transit Authority of River City, Louisville, KY Allen D. Biehler, Secretary, Pennsylvania DOT, Harrisburg John D. Bowe, President, Americas Region, APL Limited, Oakland, CA Larry L. Brown, Sr., Executive Director, Mississippi DOT, Jackson Deborah H. Butler, Executive Vice President, Planning, and CIO, Norfolk Southern Corporation, Norfolk, VA William A.V. Clark, Professor, Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles David S. Ekern, Commissioner, Virginia DOT, Richmond Nicholas J. Garber, Henry L. Kinnier Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville Jeffrey W. Hamiel, Executive Director, Metropolitan Airports Commission, Minneapolis, MN Edward A. (Ned) Helme, President, Center for Clean Air Policy, Washington, DC Will Kempton, Director, California DOT, Sacramento Susan Martinovich, Director, Nevada DOT, Carson City Michael D. Meyer, Professor, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta Michael R. Morris, Director of Transportation, North Central Texas Council of Governments, Arlington Neil J. Pedersen, Administrator, Maryland State Highway Administration, Baltimore Pete K. Rahn, Director, Missouri DOT, Jefferson City Sandra Rosenbloom, Professor of Planning, University of Arizona, Tucson Tracy L. Rosser, Vice President, Corporate Traffic, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., Bentonville, AR Rosa Clausell Rountree, Executive Director, Georgia State Road and Tollway Authority, Atlanta Henry G. (Gerry) Schwartz, Jr., Chairman (retired), Jacobs/Sverdrup Civil, Inc., St. Louis, MO C. Michael Walton, Ernest H. Cockrell Centennial Chair in Engineering, University of Texas, Austin Linda S. Watson, CEO, LYNXCentral Florida Regional Transportation Authority, Orlando Steve Williams, Chairman and CEO, Maverick Transportation, Inc., Little Rock, AR EX OFFICIO MEMBERS Thad Allen (Adm., U.S. Coast Guard), Commandant, U.S. Coast Guard, Washington, DC Joseph H. Boardman, Federal Railroad Administrator, U.S.DOT Rebecca M. Brewster, President and COO, American Transportation Research Institute, Smyrna, GA Paul R. Brubaker, Research and Innovative Technology Administrator, U.S.DOT George Bugliarello, Chancellor, Polytechnic University of New York, Brooklyn, and Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Engineering, Washington, DC Sean T. Connaughton, Maritime Administrator, U.S.DOT LeRoy Gishi, Chief, Division of Transportation, Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington, DC Edward R. Hamberger, President and CEO, Association of American Railroads, Washington, DC John H. Hill, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administrator, U.S.DOT John C. Horsley, Executive Director, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, DC Carl T. Johnson, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administrator, U.S.DOT J. Edward Johnson, Director, Applied Science Directorate, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, John C. Stennis Space Center, MS Thomas J. Madison, Jr., Administrator, Federal Highway Administration, U.S.DOT William W. Millar, President, American Public Transportation Association, Washington, DC Nicole R. Nason, National Highway Traffic Safety Administrator, U.S.DOT James S. Simpson, Federal Transit Administrator, U.S.DOT Robert A. Sturgell, Acting Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration, U.S.DOT Robert L. Van Antwerp (Lt. Gen., U.S. Army), Chief of Engineers and Commanding General, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, DC *Membership as of September 2008.
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NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM NCHRP REPORT 622 Effectiveness of Behavioral Highway Safety Countermeasures David F. Preusser Allan F. Williams James L. Nichols Julie Tison Neil K. Chaudhary PREUSSER RESEARCH GROUP, INC. Trumbull, CT Subject Areas Safety and Human Performance Research sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2008 www.TRB.org
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NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY NCHRP REPORT 622 RESEARCH PROGRAM Systematic, well-designed research provides the most effective Project 17-33 approach to the solution of many problems facing highway ISSN 0077-5614 administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local ISBN: 978-0-309-11754-8 interest and can best be studied by highway departments individually Library of Congress Control Number 2008909235 or in cooperation with their state universities and others. However, the © 2008 Transportation Research Board accelerating growth of highway transportation develops increasingly complex problems of wide interest to highway authorities. These problems are best studied through a coordinated program of COPYRIGHT PERMISSION cooperative research. Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining In recognition of these needs, the highway administrators of the written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials published or copyrighted material used herein. initiated in 1962 an objective national highway research program Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this employing modern scientific techniques. This program is supported on publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, a continuing basis by funds from participating member states of the FMCSA, FTA, or Transit Development Corporation endorsement of a particular product, Association and it receives the full cooperation and support of the method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for Federal Highway Administration, United States Department of educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission Transportation. from CRP. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies was requested by the Association to administer the research program because of the Board's recognized objectivity and understanding of NOTICE modern research practices. The Board is uniquely suited for this purpose as it maintains an extensive committee structure from which The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of authorities on any highway transportation subject may be drawn; it the Governing Board of the National Research Council. Such approval reflects the possesses avenues of communications and cooperation with federal, Governing Board's judgment that the program concerned is of national importance and state and local governmental agencies, universities, and industry; its appropriate with respect to both the purposes and resources of the National Research Council. relationship to the National Research Council is an insurance of The members of the technical committee selected to monitor this project and to review this objectivity; it maintains a full-time research correlation staff of report were chosen for recognized scholarly competence and with due consideration for the specialists in highway transportation matters to bring the findings of balance of disciplines appropriate to the project. The opinions and conclusions expressed research directly to those who are in a position to use them. or implied are those of the research agency that performed the research, and, while they have been accepted as appropriate by the technical committee, they are not necessarily those of The program is developed on the basis of research needs identified the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, the American by chief administrators of the highway and transportation departments Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, or the Federal Highway and by committees of AASHTO. Each year, specific areas of research Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation. needs to be included in the program are proposed to the National Each report is reviewed and accepted for publication by the technical committee according Research Council and the Board by the American Association of State to procedures established and monitored by the Transportation Research Board Executive Committee and the Governing Board of the National Research Council. Highway and Transportation Officials. Research projects to fulfill these needs are defined by the Board, and qualified research agencies are The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research Council, the Federal Highway Administration, the American Association of State Highway selected from those that have submitted proposals. Administration and and Transportation Officials, and the individual states participating in the National surveillance of research contracts are the responsibilities of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade Research Council and the Transportation Research Board. or manufacturers' names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of this report. The needs for highway research are many, and the National Cooperative Highway Research Program can make significant contributions to the solution of highway transportation problems of mutual concern to many responsible groups. The program, however, is intended to complement rather than to substitute for or duplicate other highway research programs. Published reports of the NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from: Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet at: http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore Printed in the United States of America
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COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAMS CRP STAFF FOR NCHRP REPORT 622 Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Crawford F. Jencks, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Charles W. Niessner, Senior Program Officer Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Maria Sabin Crawford, Assistant Editor NCHRP PROJECT 17-33 PANEL Field of Traffic--Area of Safety Susan Herbel, Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Heathrow, FL (Chair) Ronald Lipps, Maryland State Highway Administration, Hanover, MD Edward B. Crowell, Georgia Motor Trucking Association, Smyrna, GA Steve L. Eagan, New Mexico DOT, Santa Fe, NM Barbara Harsha, Governors Highway Safety Association, Washington, DC James H. Hedlund, Highway Safety North, Ithaca, NY Marsha Lembke, North Dakota DOT, Bismarck, ND J. Scott Osberg, AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety, Washington, DC Robert L. Thompson, Iowa Governor's Traffic Safety Bureau, Des Moines, IA Terecia W. Wilson, South Carolina DOT, Columbia, SC Elizabeth A. Baker, NHTSA Liaison Thomas "Tom" Granda, FHWA Liaison John E. Balser, Other Liaison Richard Pain, TRB Liaison
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FOREWORD By Charles W. Niessner Staff Officer Transportation Research Board This report presents the findings of a research project to develop a framework and guid- ance for estimating the costs and benefits of emerging, experimental, untried, or unproven behavioral highway safety countermeasures. This report will be of particular interest to safety practitioners responsible for the development and implementation of the state's Strategic Highway Safety Plan. In 2006, the U.S. DOT reported 42,642 fatalities and nearly 3 million injuries resulting from highway crashes nationwide. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) estimates that highway crashes cost society more than $230 billion a year. To reduce injuries, fatalities, and other costs, billions of dollars are invested every year to engi- neer and construct improved and safer infrastructure, enforce traffic safety laws, and educate users of the nation's highway system on safe practices. Each year, hundreds of millions of these dollars are spent on behavioral highway safety countermeasures without sufficient knowledge of their benefits. The lack of sound infor- mation on the efficacy and costs of behavioral safety countermeasures such as public aware- ness campaigns, new safety program start-ups, and enforcement programs impedes effec- tive decision making. With limited resources and the duty to ensure public accountability in the use of funds available for behavioral highway safety programs, there is a need to provide decision mak- ers with additional information to determine the countermeasures that will result in the greatest reductions of crashes, injuries, and fatalities. Under NCHRP Project 17-33, "Effectiveness of Behavioral Highway Safety Counter- measures," researchers at the Preusser Research Group, Inc., developed a framework and guidance for estimating the costs and benefits of emerging, experimental, untried, or unproven behavioral highway safety countermeasures. The researchers reviewed the behavioral countermeasures included in the report: Coun- termeasures that Work: A Highway Safety Countermeasure Guide for State Highway Offices. This report was prepared for the NHTSA by the Governors Highway Safety Association. The 104 countermeasures in the report were divided into four groups: proven to be effec- tive, likely to be effective, unlikely to be effective or the effects are unknown, and known to have negative consequences. Effectiveness estimates were developed for a number of the proven to be effective countermeasures. The report includes a classification scheme to estimate the effectiveness of counter- measures that are believed "likely" to work but for which evaluation evidence is not yet available, as well as emerging and developing countermeasures that have not yet been fully implemented or evaluated. Guidelines are presented for estimating when countermeasures within each of these classifications are likely to be cost effective.
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CONTENTS 1 Summary 2 Chapter 1 Introduction 3 Chapter 2 Countermeasures 5 Chapter 3 Countermeasure Classification 5 Changing Driver Behavior 5 Cautions about the Countermeasures 6 Countermeasure Categories 9 Summary 10 Chapter 4 Estimation of Highway Loss 10 Target Group Size--Fatal Injury 10 Target Group Size--Nonfatal Injury 11 Cost of Fatal and Nonfatal Injury 13 Chapter 5 Estimation of Savings 13 Median State 13 Countermeasure Effectiveness 15 Proven Countermeasures 18 Chapter 6 Estimation of Cost to Implement Countermeasures 18 Political Capital 18 Resource Allocation 19 User Pay 19 Direct Cost 22 Chapter 7 Using this Guide 22 1. Identify Proven Injury Reducing Countermeasures That Can Be Implemented 24 2a. Use Countermeasures That Are Likely To Be Effective 24 2b. Consider Proven Countermeasures with No Effectiveness Estimates 25 3. Avoid Countermeasures with Unknown and Unlikely Effectiveness 25 4. Do No Harm 26 Selection of Countermeasures 27 Shift in Strategy 28 New and Emerging Countermeasures 28 Conclusion 29 References
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33 Appendix A Unknown/Uncertain/Unlikely Countermeasures 36 Appendix B Effectiveness Estimates for Twenty-Three Proven Countermeasures 49 Appendix C Countermeasures Likely to Work 50 Appendix D Proven Countermeasures With No Crash or Injury Reduction Calculations