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92 A Guidebook for the Evaluation of Project Delivery Methods DBB DB Prob. Permits Prob. $ $ Prob. Prob. Utility $ $ DSC Prob. Prob. $ $ Prob. Prob. Third Party $ $ Total Effect on Cost Prob. Prob. $ $ Figure 6.5. Overview of the quantitative analysis. Conclusion The Tier 3 approach may be needed in cases where the Tier 1 and Tier 2 approaches cannot provide a clear best choice for the project delivery method. In such a case, the Tier 3 provides a two-phased approach: first, a qualitative analysis and then, if necessary, a quantitative one. Both analyses are based on a risk-allocation exercise that will determine major risks to the agency under various project delivery methods. In the qualitative approach, the decision-makers care- fully examine each risk factor and deliberate the anticipated effect of each risk factor on project cost and schedule. This critical review can help the agency decide on the most appropriate deliv- ery method. If the qualitative analysis does not yield a final choice of delivery method, the agency can then proceed with the quantitative analysis. In this analysis, the cost and schedule effect of each risk factor is estimated within an appropriate range, summed up, and used in comparing the total effect of risks under competing delivery methods. The agency can then select the deliv- ery method that results in the most favorable outcome considering both cost and schedule.