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Airports and the Newest Generation of General Aviation Aircraft, Volume 2: Guidebook (2009)

Chapter: Chapter 3 - Projecting Potential Future Activity from New Generation Aircraft

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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Projecting Potential Future Activity from New Generation Aircraft." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2009. Airports and the Newest Generation of General Aviation Aircraft, Volume 2: Guidebook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14300.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Projecting Potential Future Activity from New Generation Aircraft." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2009. Airports and the Newest Generation of General Aviation Aircraft, Volume 2: Guidebook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14300.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Projecting Potential Future Activity from New Generation Aircraft." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2009. Airports and the Newest Generation of General Aviation Aircraft, Volume 2: Guidebook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14300.
×
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Page 19
Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Projecting Potential Future Activity from New Generation Aircraft." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2009. Airports and the Newest Generation of General Aviation Aircraft, Volume 2: Guidebook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14300.
×
Page 19
Page 20
Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Projecting Potential Future Activity from New Generation Aircraft." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2009. Airports and the Newest Generation of General Aviation Aircraft, Volume 2: Guidebook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14300.
×
Page 20
Page 21
Suggested Citation:"Chapter 3 - Projecting Potential Future Activity from New Generation Aircraft." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2009. Airports and the Newest Generation of General Aviation Aircraft, Volume 2: Guidebook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/14300.
×
Page 21

Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

3.1 Introduction The prospect of new generation aircraft, particularly VLJs, may seem appealing and inviting to many small GA airport operators in the United States, particularly those who have not yet attracted any significant jet activity. Certainly, specific airport requirements such as a long enough runway and various other infrastructure necessities would be needed to attract such activity. Many of these airport requirements are discussed in detail in Chapters 4 and 5. However, the “build it and they will come” theory cannot be used without considering other factors that influence how and where new generation GA aircraft may operate. Airport operators should assess basic questions about the potential for increased activity before spending significant time and resources on improving or upgrading airport facilities. Although in many cases airport facilities are on the list of issues that businesses may consider, such facilities may not be as far up the list as many airport operators may believe. Depending on the business in question, attributes such as household income, population, edu- cation, the quality of public schools, and the local road network may be of equal or higher importance than the location or capabilities of the local GA airport. At the same time, understanding the current use of an airport will assist in identifying needs for specific actions to accommodate new generation aircraft. If existing facilities already accommodate a significant number of operations by light jets (e.g., Cessna CJ series, Hawker Beechcraft Premier) or larger, then the airport may already be sufficiently attractive to business oper- ations. On the other hand, if operations at the airport primarily consist of piston and/or turboprop activity related to personal or private aviation, then the question becomes whether the lack of jet activity is due to a lack of airport facilities or a lack of demand for access. The combination of facil- ities, demographics, and personal and business demand are information an airport operator should consider in order to assess how new operations (perhaps including commercial air taxi operations) may be attracted to the area. In many cases, airports that already have significant business aviation activity may not need to make much additional effort to attract new generation aircraft being used for business purposes. At airports that have facilities conducive to business aircraft but do not have business aircraft traf- 16 C H A P T E R 3 Projecting Potential Future Activity from New Generation Aircraft Key Questions to Consider Before Assessing Airport Capabilities Local Business Attraction—Are local businesses in the area that would make significant use of the airport if it could accommodate VLJs or other new generation GA aircraft? What is the poten- tial for new businesses to locate in the area or to conduct business in the area? Vacation/Leisure Attraction—Is the airport near an important vacation or leisure destination that would become more attractive if the airport could accommodate new generation aircraft? Personal Flying—What is the potential for per- sonal GA transportation use by high-income residents in the area?

fic, airport operators will need to analyze the demo- graphics much more closely to determine if the area will support business aviation. 3.2 Evaluating Potential Demand In evaluating how much potential demand there may be related to new generation aircraft, airport oper- ators should first understand the bounds of the air- port’s catchment area. Commercial airports use this term to describe the geographic area from which they draw passengers; the term can be applied to GA air- ports as well. The catchment area varies from airport to airport and will depend on various factors, includ- ing the number and type of airports that exist in the surrounding region. Determining how far people drive to use the airport is critical in understanding the bounds of the catchment area. Once the airport operator has established catch- ment area boundaries, the demographics of the area need to be assessed. Relevant demographics include population, household income, age of the popula- tion, average education, and type of employment (e.g., manufacturing, technical, and professional). Information also should be gathered on current activ- ity at the local airport and at any surrounding air- ports in the catchment area. If the focus is primarily on the potential for business- related activity, then a relationship with the local Chamber of Commerce or a local/regional planning commission can be important. In many cases, the local Chamber of Commerce or the economic devel- opment branch of local government will have valu- able information about the business community. In some cases, an airport operator may need to create or commission a travel survey or questionnaire that can be used to obtain some of this information. A small investment in a questionnaire may well be surpassed by the amount of valuable information that can be obtained. 3.3 ACRP Forecasts for New Generation Aircraft A goal of the ACRP 10-04 project was to produce 5- and 10-year fleet forecasts for new generation small GA aircraft. This section summarizes these forecasts, focusing primarily on the commercial air taxi forecasts Projecting Potential Future Activity from New Generation Aircraft 17 Recommended Steps for Evaluating Potential Demand 1. Determine catchment area • Addresses of owners of aircraft based at the airport • Origins and destinations of regular itinerant users 2. Identify demographics of the catchment area • US census data for cities, counties, or metro- politan statistical areas (MSAs) to assess popula- tion, household income, education, types of employment, etc. 3. Inventory current local activity • Keep a log of operations by aircraft type • Instrument Flight Rule (IFR) plan records can be used to inventory local and surrounding air- ports (records most jet and some other types of operations) 4. Use ACRP forecast to assess potential air taxi VLJ operations 5. Assess current levels of commercial service at sur- rounding airports 6. Review existing regional or state studies of (non- commuter) automobile traffic Key Questions for Understanding the Local Business Environment Are any local businesses in the aviation industry? How many and which local businesses own aircraft? How many businesses already have aircraft based at the airport? What are the travel budgets for local businesses? For businesses that already have based aircraft at the airport, how many have or might consider upgrading from a propeller driven aircraft to a VLJ? For businesses that have travel budgets and do not have an aircraft, how many have or might consider acquiring a VLJ? How many businesses have customers or employees from other offices that arrive via aviation?

prepared specifically for VLJs. These forecasts may be of interest to airport operators, at least to provide an initial estimate of the scale of operations that may be expected from new generation aircraft. The forecasts identified two potential market segments for new generation aircraft: traditional GA use and commercial air taxi use. Traditional GA use includes personal, business, corporate, and other non-air taxi uses. There is also some indication that VLJs may be a viable option in the frac- tional ownership market, given that some smaller fractional operators have indicated plans to include VLJs as an option in their fractional ownership programs. The commercial air taxi seg- ment includes traditional charter use and on-demand air taxi and per-seat on-demand services. The two segments were analyzed separately with different techniques; the traditional GA model forecasted fleet sales directly, while the air taxi model was estimated using passenger trips as the basis for the analysis which was then translated into fleet requirements using load factor and equipment utilization factors. For the traditional GA analysis, the forecasting assumed that GA use of new generation aircraft would come primarily from the replacement of existing aircraft (including high-end pistons, turboprops, and light jets) already in the fleet. Ultimately, a significant VLJ fleet may be used for traditional GA purposes, and growth in overall airport operations due to these new aircraft is not expected to vary much from historical averages observed over the past several years. On the other hand, if the commercial air taxi market develops into a significant segment, that may have a much greater effect on GA airport operations given that much of the activ- ity may represent new small aircraft activity (potentially displacing commercial air service and automobile trips). Consequently, an offshoot of the fleet projections for the air taxi mar- ket is a set of flight activity (operations) estimates broken out at the individual airport level. Candidate airports for the air taxi forecast were limited to public use airports in the lower 48 states with at least one 3,000-foot lighted runway and jet fuel available. Airports designated as Medium or Large hubs by the FAA were excluded based on observed and intended usage patterns of current and prospective air taxi operators. This yielded 1,842 candidate airports for potential air taxi services. The airport-specific activity projections from the air taxi forecast are provided as Appendix A to the guidebook. Operators of airports included in the analysis are encouraged to access and review the forecasts. A complete description of the forecast process and results is contained in a separate forecast document prepared in 2008. Relying on the same basic approach discussed above to assess poten- tial demand, the air taxi forecast relied on detailed estimates of catchment areas and demographic data across the entire United States. The baseline year for the forecast was 2007, resulting in fleet forecasts for the years 2012 and 2017. 3.3.1 Forecast Results 10 Years Out The forecast for the traditional GA segment projects that approximately 1,650 VLJs may be sold for use in the United States by 2012; by 2017, this total is projected to increase to around 3,500. The more speculative air taxi forecast projects 751 VLJs by 2012 and an increase in excess of 400 new low-cost piston aircraft that may be used for air taxi services. By 2017, the cumulative air taxi VLJ fleet may total more than 1,300, with about half that number added to the air taxi piston fleet. Figure 3-1 summarizes the cumulative fleet additions projected by 2017. The projected VLJ cumulative total of about 4,800 aircraft over 10 years is somewhat lower than most other forecasts recently published, but this is not surprising given the recent downturn in the economy and some negative developments affecting participants in the industry during 2008. It is 18 Airports and the Newest Generation of General Aviation Aircraft

still anticipated, however, that the VLJ market will continue to grow, albeit somewhat more slowly than the optimistic projections forecasted by others. The actual air taxi fleet projection levels depend heavily on basic assumptions, the most prominent of which are as follows: • Definitions of the relevant universe for the automobile and commercial air travel markets; • “Full price of travel” estimates of the various modes, which depend on (among other things) uncertain estimates of the unit costs of providing traditional charter services, wait and/or delay times associated with commercial air travel, and road congestion associated with automobile travel • Actual availability of new per-seat on-demand VLJ services and/or low-cost piston services; and • Perceived similarities or differences between new services and traditional charter services. Using different assumptions for any of these factors could affect the estimated results significantly. The overall level of activity at small airports is not likely to be affected much by VLJs pur- chased for traditional GA use because the main effect is anticipated to be displacement of sales of other small GA aircraft. On the other hand, the analysis indicates that sales of VLJs (and low-cost piston aircraft) for air taxi use are likely to displace automobile and commercial air traffic, potentially leading to substantial increases in activity at certain airports that can han- dle large numbers of aircraft being used to provide new air taxi services. Overall, the projected increase in operations by 2017 at candidate airports relative to 2007 is modest, on the order of 6%, as shown in Table 3-1. The baseline air taxi trip estimates are all tied to specific location and airports, so the total num- ber of associated air taxi operations can be estimated on an airport-specific basis. These estimates are contained in Appendix A, but they should be viewed cautiously. The projections are best interpreted as “market potential” targets, if and when low-cost air taxi services become available. Projecting Potential Future Activity from New Generation Aircraft 19 Projected 10-Year US Fleet Additions of Small GA Aircraft from 2007 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 VLJs 745,3503,1 Other (Pistons, Props, Light Jets) 236,12366 UsesAGrehtOUseixaTriA Figure 3-1. ACRP fleet forecast additions.

3.3.2 Further Recommendations for Use of the Forecasts The air taxi forecast projections need to be viewed and used with caution because they are sub- ject to a large degree of uncertainty, particularly given recent events in the industry itself (the bank- ruptcy of both DayJet and Eclipse Aviation) and in the overall economy. Both DayJet and Eclipse were key players in the nascent VLJ air taxi market, and the forecasts were based on the assump- tion that the per-seat on-demand business model of DayJet (using Eclipse VLJs) would be success- ful and could spread across the country over the next 10 years, leading to significant activity at many GA airports. Although the specific set of assumptions used in the 10-year forecasts are probably now out of date, even very recent industry outlooks suggest that the VLJ air taxi market may still be viable, although the timing of when such activity may occur is uncertain. Thus, the forecast esti- mate for a given airport should not necessarily be interpreted as a specific prediction for 2017, but rather as a potential long-term activity target if the low-cost air taxi service business model becomes successful at some point in the future. 3.4 Summary The air taxi segment will continue to be influenced by overall economic conditions as well as operator business plans. The results of the air taxi activity forecast are best used by an airport oper- ator to ascertain the potential demand that may exist at an airport for air taxi operations and then to identify what factors may be affecting that potential. 3.5 Helpful References and Resources ACRP Synthesis 4: Counting Aircraft Operations at Non-Towered Airports, http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/ acrp/acrp_syn_004.pdf. This synthesis project identifies and evaluates the different methods used by states, air- ports, and metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) for counting and estimating aircraft operations at non-towered airports with the goal of identifying best practices. Also identified are any new technologies that can be used for these counts and estimates. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), http://www.transtats.bts.gov/Data_ Elements.aspx?Data=2. BTS provides a wealth of information on aircraft operations at commercial airports and related data. FAA, General Aviation and Part 135 Activity Surveys, http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics/aviation_data_statistics/ general_aviation/. The purpose of the Survey is to provide the FAA with information on general aviation and on-demand Part 135 aircraft activity. The data collected are also used by other government agencies, the gen- eral aviation industry, trade associations, and private businesses to pinpoint safety problems and to form the basis for critical research and analysis of general aviation issues. 20 Airports and the Newest Generation of General Aviation Aircraft Region TAF 2007 Total Operations 2017 Incremental Air Taxi Operations Air Taxi % 2007 Operations %9.4157,441229,379,2lartneC %2.5274,814880,200,8nretsaE %0.6353,947508,655,21sekaLtaerG %6.2839,18221,601,3dnalgnEweN %0.3373,252379,193,8niatnuoMnretsewhtroN %1.5907,419759,029,71nrehtuoS %4.6347,256471,951,01nretsewhtuoS %3.8441,639660,813,11cificaPnretseW %6.5384,051,4701,924,47latoT Table 3-1. Estimated incremental air taxi operations by region.

FAA, Terminal Area Forecast, http://aspm.faa.gov/main/taf.asp. This is the official forecast of aviation activity at FAA facilities. These forecasts are prepared in order to meet the budget and planning needs of FAA and provide information for use by state and local authorities, the aviation industry, and the public. FAA, Enhanced Traffic Management System, http://aspm.faa.gov/etms/sys/. This database is one of many in a sys- tem which provides access to historical traffic counts, forecasts of aviation activity, and delay statistics. FAA Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport, http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics/ aviation_data_statistics/forecasting/media/AF1.doc#title. This report provides guidance to individuals who prepare airport activity forecasts as well as to those who review the forecasts. The guidance covers the basic steps required for producing forecasts. FAA Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, Model for Estimating General Aviation Operations at Non-Towered Airports, http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics/aviation_data_statistics/general_aviation/media/GAModel3F.doc. This report provides a model for estimating GA operations at non-towered airports. In this report, a new model was developed in order to augment previous research by using additional variables for population, airport regional prominence, and certificated flight schools. Projecting Potential Future Activity from New Generation Aircraft 21

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TRB’s Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) Report 17: Airports and the Newest Generation of General Aviation Aircraft, Volume 2: Guidebook is designed to help airport operators assess the practical requirements and innovative approaches that may be needed to accommodate these new aircraft. ACRP Report 17, Volume 1 explores a forecast of anticipated fleet activity associated with the newest generation of general aviation aircraft for 5- and 10-year outlooks.

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