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Projecting Potential Future Activity from New Generation Aircraft 17
fic, airport operators will need to analyze the demo-
graphics much more closely to determine if the area will Recommended Steps for Evaluating
support business aviation. Potential Demand
1. Determine catchment area
3.2 Evaluating Potential · Addresses of owners of aircraft based at the
Demand airport
In evaluating how much potential demand there · Origins and destinations of regular itinerant users
may be related to new generation aircraft, airport oper- 2. Identify demographics of the catchment area
ators should first understand the bounds of the air- · US census data for cities, counties, or metro-
port's catchment area. Commercial airports use this politan statistical areas (MSAs) to assess popula-
term to describe the geographic area from which they tion, household income, education, types of
draw passengers; the term can be applied to GA air- employment, etc.
ports as well. The catchment area varies from airport 3. Inventory current local activity
to airport and will depend on various factors, includ- · Keep a log of operations by aircraft type
ing the number and type of airports that exist in the · Instrument Flight Rule (IFR) plan records can
surrounding region. Determining how far people drive be used to inventory local and surrounding air-
to use the airport is critical in understanding the ports (records most jet and some other types of
bounds of the catchment area. operations)
4. Use ACRP forecast to assess potential air taxi VLJ
Once the airport operator has established catch- operations
ment area boundaries, the demographics of the area 5. Assess current levels of commercial service at sur-
need to be assessed. Relevant demographics include rounding airports
population, household income, age of the popula- 6. Review existing regional or state studies of (non-
tion, average education, and type of employment commuter) automobile traffic
(e.g., manufacturing, technical, and professional).
Information also should be gathered on current activ-
ity at the local airport and at any surrounding air-
ports in the catchment area.
If the focus is primarily on the potential for business-
Key Questions for Understanding the Local
related activity, then a relationship with the local
Business Environment
Chamber of Commerce or a local/regional planning
commission can be important. In many cases, the Are any local businesses in the aviation
local Chamber of Commerce or the economic devel- industry?
opment branch of local government will have valu- How many and which local businesses own
able information about the business community. aircraft?
How many businesses already have aircraft
In some cases, an airport operator may need to create
based at the airport?
or commission a travel survey or questionnaire that can
What are the travel budgets for local
be used to obtain some of this information. A small
businesses?
investment in a questionnaire may well be surpassed
For businesses that already have based
by the amount of valuable information that can be
aircraft at the airport, how many have or
obtained.
might consider upgrading from a propeller
driven aircraft to a VLJ?
For businesses that have travel budgets
3.3 ACRP Forecasts for and do not have an aircraft, how many
New Generation Aircraft have or might consider acquiring a VLJ?
How many businesses have customers or
A goal of the ACRP 10-04 project was to produce
employees from other offices that arrive
5- and 10-year fleet forecasts for new generation small
via aviation?
GA aircraft. This section summarizes these forecasts,
focusing primarily on the commercial air taxi forecasts
