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ACRP AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM REPORT 17 Sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration Airports and the Newest Generation of General Aviation Aircraft Volume 1: Forecast

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ACRP OVERSIGHT COMMITTEE* TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2009 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE* CHAIR OFFICERS James Wilding CHAIR: Adib K. Kanafani, Cahill Professor of Civil Engineering, University of California, Berkeley Independent Consultant VICE CHAIR: Michael R. Morris, Director of Transportation, North Central Texas Council of Governments, Arlington VICE CHAIR EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: Robert E. Skinner, Jr., Transportation Research Board Jeff Hamiel MinneapolisSt. Paul MEMBERS Metropolitan Airports Commission J. Barry Barker, Executive Director, Transit Authority of River City, Louisville, KY MEMBERS Allen D. Biehler, Secretary, Pennsylvania DOT, Harrisburg James Crites Larry L. Brown, Sr., Executive Director, Mississippi DOT, Jackson DallasFort Worth International Airport Deborah H. Butler, Executive Vice President, Planning, and CIO, Norfolk Southern Corporation, Richard de Neufville Norfolk, VA Massachusetts Institute of Technology William A.V. Clark, Professor, Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles Kevin C. Dolliole Unison Consulting David S. Ekern, Commissioner, Virginia DOT, Richmond John K. Duval Nicholas J. Garber, Henry L. Kinnier Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Beverly Municipal Airport Virginia, Charlottesville Kitty Freidheim Jeffrey W. Hamiel, Executive Director, Metropolitan Airports Commission, Minneapolis, MN Freidheim Consulting Edward A. (Ned) Helme, President, Center for Clean Air Policy, Washington, DC Steve Grossman Oakland International Airport Will Kempton, Director, California DOT, Sacramento Tom Jensen Susan Martinovich, Director, Nevada DOT, Carson City National Safe Skies Alliance Debra L. Miller, Secretary, Kansas DOT, Topeka Catherine M. Lang Neil J. Pedersen, Administrator, Maryland State Highway Administration, Baltimore Federal Aviation Administration Pete K. Rahn, Director, Missouri DOT, Jefferson City Gina Marie Lindsey Los Angeles World Airports Sandra Rosenbloom, Professor of Planning, University of Arizona, Tucson Carolyn Motz Tracy L. Rosser, Vice President, Regional General Manager, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., Mandeville, LA Hagerstown Regional Airport Rosa Clausell Rountree, CEOGeneral Manager, Transroute International Canada Services, Inc., Richard Tucker Pitt Meadows, BC Huntsville International Airport Steven T. Scalzo, Chief Operating Officer, Marine Resources Group, Seattle, WA Henry G. (Gerry) Schwartz, Jr., Chairman (retired), Jacobs/Sverdrup Civil, Inc., St. Louis, MO EX OFFICIO MEMBERS C. Michael Walton, Ernest H. Cockrell Centennial Chair in Engineering, University of Texas, Austin Sabrina Johnson Linda S. Watson, CEO, LYNXCentral Florida Regional Transportation Authority, Orlando U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Steve Williams, Chairman and CEO, Maverick Transportation, Inc., Little Rock, AR Richard Marchi Airports Council International--North America Laura McKee EX OFFICIO MEMBERS Air Transport Association of America Thad Allen (Adm., U.S. Coast Guard), Commandant, U.S. Coast Guard, Washington, DC Henry Ogrodzinski National Association of State Aviation Officials Peter H. Appel, Administrator, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, U.S.DOT Melissa Sabatine J. Randolph Babbitt, Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration, U.S.DOT American Association of Airport Executives Rebecca M. Brewster, President and COO, American Transportation Research Institute, Smyrna, GA Robert E. Skinner, Jr. George Bugliarello, President Emeritus and University Professor, Polytechnic Institute of New York Transportation Research Board University, Brooklyn; Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Engineering, Washington, DC James E. Caponiti, Acting Deputy Administrator, Maritime Administration, U.S.DOT SECRETARY Cynthia Douglass, Acting Deputy Administrator, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Christopher W. Jenks Administration, U.S.DOT Transportation Research Board LeRoy Gishi, Chief, Division of Transportation, Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington, DC Edward R. Hamberger, President and CEO, Association of American Railroads, Washington, DC John C. Horsley, Executive Director, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, DC Rose A. McMurry, Acting Deputy Administrator, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, U.S.DOT Ronald Medford, Acting Deputy Administrator, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, U.S.DOT William W. Millar, President, American Public Transportation Association, Washington, DC Jeffrey F. Paniati, Acting Deputy Administrator and Executive Director, Federal Highway Administration, U.S.DOT Peter Rogoff, Administrator, Federal Transit Administration, U.S.DOT Joseph C. Szabo, Administrator, Federal Railroad Administration, U.S.DOT Robert L. Van Antwerp (Lt. Gen., U.S. Army), Chief of Engineers and Commanding General, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, DC *Membership as of June 2009. *Membership as of June 2009.

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AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM ACRP REPORT 17 Airports and the Newest Generation of General Aviation Aircraft Volume 1: Forecast William Spitz AND Richard Golaszewski GRA, INC. Jenkintown, PA Subject Areas Aviation Research sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2009 www.TRB.org

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AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM ACRP REPORT 17, VOLUME 1 Airports are vital national resources. They serve a key role in trans- Project 10-04 portation of people and goods and in regional, national, and inter- ISSN 1935-9802 national commerce. They are where the nation's aviation system ISBN 978-0-309-11794-4 connects with other modes of transportation and where federal respon- Library of Congress Control Number 2009933918 sibility for managing and regulating air traffic operations intersects with the role of state and local governments that own and operate most 2009 Transportation Research Board airports. Research is necessary to solve common operating problems, to adapt appropriate new technologies from other industries, and to introduce innovations into the airport industry. The Airport Coopera- COPYRIGHT PERMISSION tive Research Program (ACRP) serves as one of the principal means by Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining which the airport industry can develop innovative near-term solutions written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously to meet demands placed on it. published or copyrighted material used herein. The need for ACRP was identified in TRB Special Report 272: Airport Research Needs: Cooperative Solutions in 2003, based on a study spon- Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the sored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The ACRP carries understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB or FAA endorsement out applied research on problems that are shared by airport operating of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the agencies and are not being adequately addressed by existing federal material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate research programs. It is modeled after the successful National Coopera- acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of tive Highway Research Program and Transit Cooperative Research Pro- the material, request permission from CRP. gram. The ACRP undertakes research and other technical activities in a variety of airport subject areas, including design, construction, mainte- nance, operations, safety, security, policy, planning, human resources, NOTICE and administration. The ACRP provides a forum where airport opera- tors can cooperatively address common operational problems. The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the Airport Cooperative Research Program conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the The ACRP was authorized in December 2003 as part of the Vision Governing Board of the National Research Council. Such approval reflects the Governing 100-Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act. The primary partici- Board's judgment that the project concerned is appropriate with respect to both the pants in the ACRP are (1) an independent governing board, the ACRP purposes and resources of the National Research Council. Oversight Committee (AOC), appointed by the Secretary of the U.S. The members of the technical advisory panel selected to monitor this project and to review Department of Transportation with representation from airport oper- this report were chosen for recognized scholarly competence and with due consideration ating agencies, other stakeholders, and relevant industry organizations for the balance of disciplines appropriate to the project. The opinions and conclusions such as the Airports Council International-North America (ACI-NA), expressed or implied are those of the research agency that performed the research, and the American Association of Airport Executives (AAAE), the National while they have been accepted as appropriate by the technical panel, they are not Association of State Aviation Officials (NASAO), and the Air Transport necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the Federal Aviation Administration of the U.S. Department of Transportation. Association (ATA) as vital links to the airport community; (2) the TRB as program manager and secretariat for the governing board; and Each report is reviewed and accepted for publication by the technical panel according to (3) the FAA as program sponsor. In October 2005, the FAA executed a procedures established and monitored by the Transportation Research Board Executive Committee and the Governing Board of the National Research Council. contract with the National Academies formally initiating the program. The ACRP benefits from the cooperation and participation of airport The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research professionals, air carriers, shippers, state and local government officials, Council, and the Federal Aviation Administration (sponsor of the Airport Cooperative Research Program) do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers' equipment and service suppliers, other airport users, and research orga- names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the clarity and nizations. Each of these participants has different interests and respon- completeness of the project reporting. sibilities, and each is an integral part of this cooperative research effort. Cover Photo courtesy of the City of Naples Airport Authority. Research problem statements for the ACRP are solicited periodically but may be submitted to the TRB by anyone at any time. It is the responsibility of the AOC to formulate the research program by iden- tifying the highest priority projects and defining funding levels and expected products. Once selected, each ACRP project is assigned to an expert panel, appointed by the TRB. Panels include experienced practitioners and research specialists; heavy emphasis is placed on including airport pro- fessionals, the intended users of the research products. The panels pre- pare project statements (requests for proposals), select contractors, and provide technical guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The process for developing research problem statements and Published reports of the selecting research agencies has been used by TRB in managing cooper- AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM ative research programs since 1962. As in other TRB activities, ACRP are available from: project panels serve voluntarily without compensation. Primary emphasis is placed on disseminating ACRP results to the Transportation Research Board Business Office intended end-users of the research: airport operating agencies, service 500 Fifth Street, NW providers, and suppliers. The ACRP produces a series of research Washington, DC 20001 reports for use by airport operators, local agencies, the FAA, and other interested parties, and industry associations may arrange for work- and can be ordered through the Internet at shops, training aids, field visits, and other activities to ensure that http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore results are implemented by airport-industry practitioners. Printed in the United States of America

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COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAMS CRP STAFF FOR ACRP REPORT 17, VOLUME 1 Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Crawford F. Jencks, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Michael R. Salamone, ACRP Manager Theresia H. Schatz, Senior Program Officer Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Hilary Freer, Senior Editor Andra Briere, Editor ACRP PROJECT 10-04 PANEL Field of Operations Theodore D. Soliday, City of Naples Airport Authority, Naples, FL (Chair) H. Norman Abramson, Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, TX Tara Harl, St. Cloud State University, St. Cloud, MN Paul Meyers, Aviation Management Consulting Group, Inc., Centennial, CO Gary Shafer, Southern Illinois Airport, Carbondale, IL Christy Yaffa, Wyoming DOT, Cheyenne, WY Paul Devoti, FAA Liaison Kenneth Feith, US Environmental Protection Agency Liaison Alex Gertsen, American Association of Airport Executives Liaison (formerly) Jens C. Hennig, General Aviation Manufacturers Association Liaison Christine Gerencher, TRB Liaison

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FOREWORD By Theresia H. Schatz Staff Officer Transportation Research Board ACRP Report 17: Airports and The Newest Generation of General Aviation Aircraft is pub- lished as a 2-volume set. Volume 1 provides a Forecast of anticipated fleet activity associ- ated with the newest generation of General Aviation (GA) aircraft over a 5- and 10-year out- look. Volume 2 offers a Guidebook in a user-friendly format that helps airport operators assess the practical requirements and innovative approaches that may be needed to accom- modate these new aircraft. This Volume 1 Forecast will be of interest to airport operators currently serving GA air- craft, as well as those that are considering the potential impact of incorporating commer- cial service that may be provided by Very Light Jets (VLJs) and other advanced small GA aircraft at their airports. Using 2007 as the baseline, this Forecast provides 5- and 10-year fleet size projections for the newest generation of GA aircraft and highlights a variety of fleets and their manufacturers. Both traditional GA uses as well as commercial air taxi uses are considered. In addition to fleet estimates, operational activity projections by VLJs used in commer- cial air taxi services are provided for over 1,800 US airports. In conjunction with the Vol- ume 2 Guidebook, these fleet and activity forecasts can be used by airport operators to assess both the practical requirements and the innovative options for accommodating these new types of GA aircraft. Airport planners can use this Forecast as the basis for upgrading exist- ing, and creating new airport facilities (along with the services needed). Service providers and industry stakeholders focused on GA activity will find this Forecast helpful in seeking new business opportunities in the foreseeable future. Some forecasts predict that an increasing number of new, smaller GA aircraft will take to the skies in the near future. These forecasts suggest that some airports will see an increase in traffic and greater demand for GA infrastructure, facilities, and services. However, according to some aviation industry experts, many of these forecasts appear over-optimistic. Airport operators are concerned that the forecasts do not adequately address airport considerations. The fundamental questions for airports are, how much will traffic increase from these aircraft; which airports will experience the traffic increase; and what infrastructure, facilities, and services will be needed. If there is a large increase in aircraft activity as a result of these new aircraft, already busy GA airports will be further congested, and the smallest GA airports may not be prepared to handle this potential increase in activity. Consequently, airports need to know what level of aircraft activity they can expect and what infrastructure, facilities, and services are needed to accommodate the newest generation of GA aircraft adequately. They need information on the likelihood of GA aircraft activity increases at airports by category of airport and

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geographical location. Moreover, no single resource document summarizes what can and should be done to prepare airport infrastructure, facilities, and services to accommodate the increased activity while maintaining productivity. Under ACRP Project 10-04, a research team led by GRA, Inc. conducted the research with the objectives to (1) forecast GA aircraft activity by category of airport and geographical location due to the introduction of the newest generation of GA aircraft and (2) develop a user-friendly guidebook that will help airport operators to (a) estimate the level of activity from these aircraft at their particular airport; (b) assess the impact of these aircraft on their particular airport's infrastructure, facilities, and services; (c) accommodate existing and anticipated demand for facilities and services from these aircraft; and (d) attract new business from the newest generation of GA aircraft. For the purposes of this project, the newest generation of GA aircraft refers to small-sized (12,500 lbs or less) aircraft with high-technology "all glass" digital cockpits, including light jets, VLJs, and new advanced- technology piston and turbo-prop aircraft. The need for this research began in 200607, when the hype surrounding VLJs reached a crescendo. With a significant downshift in the global economy in 20082009, the reduced demand has affected the aviation industry as a whole, particularly the GA market. Nonethe- less, this Forecast and the Guidebook will help airport operators and planners prepare for the next wave of change. An increase in demand for this newest generation of GA aircraft and its impact on airports; the associated facilities; and information related to best plan for future growth, expansion, and potential new opportunities are likely to be needed.

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CONTENTS 1 Summary 3 Chapter 1 Overview 3 Aircraft Coverage 4 Geographic Coverage 4 Review of Existing GA and Air Taxi Markets 5 Chapter 2 GA Forecast 5 Introduction 5 Projections for the Overall Market 7 Market Segmentation Analysis 9 Outlook for VLJ Manufacturers 9 Eclipse 500 10 Cessna Citation Mustang 10 Embraer Phenom 100 10 The Fractional Ownership Market 10 Baseline GA Fleet Forecast 11 Operational Impacts on Airports 12 Chapter 3 Air Taxi Forecast 12 Introduction 13 Data Details 13 Airport Data 14 Census Data 14 Current Air Taxi Population 15 Current Commercial Air Population 15 Current Automobile Population 16 Model Assumptions 17 Explanatory Variables and Model Estimation 18 Statistical Results 19 Baseline Forecast Assumptions 19 Outlook for Air Taxi Services Utilizing Small Next-Generation Aircraft 20 VLJ Mode Attributes 20 Spread and Distribution of VLJ Per-Seat versus Traditional Charter Services 20 Spread and Distribution of Low-Cost Piston Services 20 Other Modes 21 Impact of Increasing Fuel Prices 21 Overall Travel Growth 21 Projected Mode Shares and Trip Totals 22 Baseline Air Taxi Fleet Forecast 22 Operational Impacts on Airports 25 Chapter 4 Conclusions 25 Estimation of Projected Fleet Changes 25 Comparison with Other Fleet Forecasts