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11 Table 6. Annual VLJ sales forecast for U.S. market: GA only, excluding air taxi. Major Manufacturers Year (Eclipse - Cessna - Embraer) Others Annual Total Cumulative Total 2007 143 0 143 143 2008 256 0 256 399 2009 250 0 250 649 2010 263 50 313 962 2011 255 75 330 1,292 2012 255 100 355 1,647 2013 255 125 380 2,027 2014 255 125 380 2,407 2015 255 125 380 2,787 2016 255 125 380 3,167 2017 255 125 380 3,547 Note: Projections exclude shipments to non-US customers. Shipments of the Embraer Phenom 100 for GA use will Operational Impacts on Airports reach an annual rate of 90 by 2011, with 50% going to for- eign customers. How will the GA fleet forecast affect operations activity at GA There will be some additional VLJ shipments from other airports? As noted earlier, it is believed that most non-air taxi VLJ sales will be substitutes for purchases of high-end piston, manufacturers beginning in 2010, which will be further turboprop, and/or light jets; their effect on the size of the over- supplemented by a small number of shipments explicitly all market will be quite limited. In addition, the activity counts for fractional use. at many small airports typically do not grow even in proportion to overall fleet growth (presumably because the new additions The baseline forecast for the United States based on these to the fleet are most often used at larger airports). factors is shown in Table 6. Consequently, it is believed that the overall level of future Again, it is important to remember that these projections activity at most small GA airports will not be significantly af- are for the U.S. market only and reflect the likelihood that fected by specific fleet projections of VLJ aircraft that are sold a significant share of VLJ shipments will be overseas in the for traditional GA use. However, the composition of activity coming years. The projections suggest that VLJs will repre- may change as VLJ operations come to displace piston or turbo- sent around 14% of the total small GA market over the prop activity. Current FAA projections of operations such as coming decade. As noted earlier, no specific account has those contained in the Terminal Area Forecasts (TAFs) are been taken of the potential for sales of single-engine VLJs, still probably the best indicators of future overall activity (but which may somewhat offset the uncertainty with other this is before accounting for potential growth from the air taxi projections. market, which is discussed in the next chapter).