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Table 18. Air taxi fleet forecast.*
Avg Passengers
per Flight Net Increase Net Increase
Mode @70% LF 2007 Projected 2012 Projected 2017 Projected 2007-2012 2007-2017
Air Taxi Piston 2.1 556 968 1,149 411 593
Air Taxi Prop 3.5 49 61 79 13 31
Air Taxi Light Jet 4.2 101 113 141 12 39
Air Taxi VLJ 2.8 0 751 1,305 751 1,305
TOTAL 706 1,894 2,673 1,188 1,967
*Note: Figures and percentages may not add to totals due to rounding.
Table 19. Estimated incremental air taxi operations by region.
TAF 2007 Total 2017 Incremental Air Taxi %
Region Operations Air Taxi Operations 2007 Operations
Central 2,973,922 144,751 4.9
Eastern 8,002,088 418,472 5.2
Great Lakes 12,556,805 749,353 6.0
New England 3,106,122 81,938 2.6
Northwestern Mountain 8,391,973 252,373 3.0
Southern 17,920,957 914,709 5.1
Southwestern 10,159,174 652,743 6.4
W estern Pacific 11,318,066 936,144 8.3
Total 74,429,107 4,150,483 5.6
Baseline Air Taxi Fleet Forecast It is important to recognize that the actual air taxi fleet pro-
jection levels depend heavily on a number of basic assump-
In order to translate the traffic projections into air taxi tions, the most prominent of which are
fleet forecasts, assumptions must be made regarding air-
craft use and load factors. For the baseline forecasts, it is · Definitions of the relevant universe for the automobile and
assumed that the air taxi modes use their fleets at the rate commercial air travel markets;
of two flights per day for piston, turboprop, and light jet · "Full price of travel" estimates of the various modes, which
and three flights per day for VLJs (due to the spread of per- depend on (among other things) uncertain estimates of the
seat services). An average passenger load factor of approx- unit costs of providing traditional charter operations, wait
imately 70% is also assumed. With an average flight time of and/or delay times associated with commercial air travel,
about 1.3 h, this works out to approximately 1,200 h of uti- and road congestion associated with automobile travel;
lization per year for VLJs and 800 h for the other aircraft · Actual availability of new "per-seat" VLJ services and/or
types. This is well above current utilization rates for small low-cost piston services; and
GA aircraft (which are more on the order of a few hundred · Perceived similarities or differences between new services
hours per year), but still only a fraction of the utilization and traditional charter services.
rates typical of large commercial aircraft. The required
fleets to provide the projected trips at these rates are shown Using different assumptions for any of these factors could
in Table 18.15 have significant impacts on the estimated results.
Operational Impacts on Airports
15
The 2007 projections from the model are well below the current aggre-
gate air taxi fleet shown earlier in Table 2. The two really cannot be Given the baseline projections, the trip estimates are all
compared for a variety of reasons, including that (1) the FAA air taxi def- tied to specific locations and airports, so the total number
initions from Table 2 are quite different and cover a much larger portion of associated air taxi operations on an airport-specific basis can
of overall flight activity than the actual usage assignments used here based
be aggregated. The projected operational increases for 2017
on ETMS activity and (2) the utilization rates used in this analysis are
much higher than the historical averages for piston, turboprop, and jet compared with the TAF 2007 total operation estimates are
categories shown in Table 3, which are confounded because they reflect summarized in Table 19; the average operational increase
combined activity of aircraft across different usage categories. by 2017 relative to the 2007 baseline is on the order of 6%.
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Table 20. Added VLJ air taxi operations by 2017--top five airports by region.
FAA Itinerant + Added VLJ Air Taxi
Region Locid Facility City State Local Ops 2007 Ops by 2017
SUS Spirit of St. Louis St. Louis MO 146,384 12,830
MKC Charles B. Wheeler Downtown Kansas City MO 95,438 8,283
Central DSM Des Moines Intl Des Moines IA 106,211 6,695
OJC Johnson County Executive Olathe KS 70,438 3,058
SGF Springfield-Branson National Springfield MO 74,504 2,198
HPN Westchester County White Plains NY 202,572 25,259
TEB Teterboro Teterboro NJ 202,193 23,672
Eastern SYR Syracuse Hancock Intl Syracuse NY 107,749 16,506
IAG Niagara Falls Intl Niagara Falls NY 39,413 15,134
AGC Allegheny County Pittsburgh PA 82,185 13,858
PWK Chicago Executive Chicago/Prospect Heights IL 118,496 42,987
LUK Cincinnati Muni Airport Lunken Field Cincinnati OH 72,717 30,942
Great Lakes YIP W illow Run Detroit MI 84,968 13,504
DET Coleman A. Young Muni Detroit MI 77,571 12,033
ATW Outagamie County Rgnl Appleton WI 46,440 11,897
OWD Norwood Memorial Norwood MA 84,784 12,873
BED Laurence G. Hanscom Fld Bedford MA 169,471 4,775
New England BVY Beverly Muni Beverly MA 69,351 3,554
ASH Boire Field Nashua NH 104,237 1,933
OXC Waterbury-Oxford Oxford CT 60,829 1,708
APA Centennial Denver CO 329,959 19,551
BJC Rocky Mountain Metropolitan Denver CO 167,968 6,188
Northwestern Mountain DRO Durango-La Plata County Durango CO 57,123 4,845
G JT W alker Field Grand Junction CO 74,007 4,556
HIO Portland-Hillsboro Portland OR 224,461 4,534
PDK Dekalb-Peachtree Atlanta GA 223,399 35,184
FTY Fulton County Airport-Brown Field Atlanta GA 122,196 29,093
Southern LZU Gwinnett County - Briscoe Field Lawrenceville GA 85,686 26,682
IG X Horace W illiams Chapel Hill NC 0 17,217
RYY Cobb County-Mc Collum Field Atlanta GA 110,069 17,018
ADS Addison Dallas TX 131,833 92,170
SSF Stinson Muni San Antonio TX 148,631 26,462
Southwestern SGR Sugar Land Rgnl Houston TX 86,538 23,318
EFD Ellington Field Houston TX 144,974 18,357
HYI San Marcos Muni San Marcos TX 120,420 12,984
VGT North Las Vegas Las Vegas NV 219,240 92,655
CRQ Mc Clellan-Palomar Carlsbad CA 215,859 28,667
Western Pacific MYF Montgomery Field San Diego CA 223,410 25,674
HND Henderson Executive Las Vegas NV 67,482 22,006
FAT Fresno Yosemite Intl Fresno CA 156,648 18,705
Obviously the results may vary significantly for specific by all air taxi modes including pistons, turboprops, and
facilities; airport-specific air taxi estimates for all 1,842 air- light jets are shown in Table 21. In some cases, the large in-
ports included in the study are provided electronically in creases shown are due primarily to the VLJ or low-cost
the appendix for Volume 2 of this report. The five airports piston modes capturing significant shares of popular auto-
in each FAA region with the largest increases in projected mobile traffic corridors such as between Southern California
activity by 2017 from VLJ operations are shown in Table 20; and Las Vegas and the Texas triangle connecting Dallas,
corresponding forecasts that account for increased activity Houston, and San Antonio.
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Table 21. Added total air taxi operations by 2017--top five airports by region.
FAA Itinerant + Added Total Air
Region Locid Facility City State Local Ops 2007 Taxi Ops by 2017
SUS Spirit of St. Louis St. Louis MO 146,384 16,897
MKC Charles B. Wheeler Downtown Kansas City MO 95,438 14,359
Central DSM Des Moines Intl Des Moines IA 106,211 8,784
SGF Springfield-Branson National Springfield MO 74,504 5,970
OJC Johnson County Executive Olathe KS 70,438 5,784
HPN Westchester County White Plains NY 202,572 31,561
TEB Teterboro Teterboro NJ 202,193 29,347
Eastern SYR Syracuse Hancock Intl Syracuse NY 107,749 23,103
AGC Allegheny County Pittsburgh PA 82,185 18,691
HEF Manassas Rgnl/Harry P. Davis Field Manassas VA 110,132 18,275
PWK Chicago Executive Chicago/Prospect Heights IL 118,496 51,870
LUK Cincinnati Muni Airport Lunken Field Cincinnati OH 72,717 42,304
Great Lakes PTK Oakland County Intl Pontiac MI 209,198 17,808
YIP W illow Run Detroit MI 84,968 17,730
DET Coleman A. Young Muni Detroit MI 77,571 17,449
OWD Norwood Memorial Norwood MA 84,784 15,697
BED Laurence G. Hanscom Fld Bedford MA 169,471 7,010
New England BVY Beverly Muni Beverly MA 69,351 4,484
ASH Boire Field Nashua NH 104,237 2,967
MVY Marthas Vineyard Vineyard Haven MA 52,060 2,706
APA Centennial Denver CO 329,959 30,405
PAE Snohomish County (Paine Fld) Everett WA 131,836 13,455
Northwestern Mountain BJC Rocky Mountain Metropolitan Denver CO 167,968 10,957
HIO Portland-Hillsboro Portland OR 224,461 10,177
TTD Portland-Troutdale Portland OR 86,721 10,154
PDK Dekalb-Peachtree Atlanta GA 223,399 47,433
FTY Fulton County Airport-Brown Field Atlanta GA 122,196 34,773
Southern LZU Gwinnett County - Briscoe Field Lawrenceville GA 85,686 34,213
RYY Cobb County-Mc Collum Field Atlanta GA 110,069 20,955
ORL Executive Orlando FL 151,734 20,277
ADS Addison Dallas TX 131,833 111,988
SSF Stinson Muni San Antonio TX 148,631 37,656
Southwestern SGR Sugar Land Rgnl Houston TX 86,538 31,147
EFD Ellington Field Houston TX 144,974 25,096
HYI San Marcos Muni San Marcos TX 120,420 18,187
VGT North Las Vegas Las Vegas NV 219,240 250,199
MYF Montgomery Field San Diego CA 223,410 78,118
Western Pacific CRQ Mc Clellan-Palomar Carlsbad CA 215,859 60,820
SEE Gillespie Field San Diego/El Cajon CA 295,342 56,044
HND Henderson Executive Las Vegas NV 67,482 47,108
