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22 Table 18. Air taxi fleet forecast.* Avg Passengers per Flight Net Increase Net Increase Mode @70% LF 2007 Projected 2012 Projected 2017 Projected 2007-2012 2007-2017 Air Taxi Piston 2.1 556 968 1,149 411 593 Air Taxi Prop 3.5 49 61 79 13 31 Air Taxi Light Jet 4.2 101 113 141 12 39 Air Taxi VLJ 2.8 0 751 1,305 751 1,305 TOTAL 706 1,894 2,673 1,188 1,967 *Note: Figures and percentages may not add to totals due to rounding. Table 19. Estimated incremental air taxi operations by region. TAF 2007 Total 2017 Incremental Air Taxi % Region Operations Air Taxi Operations 2007 Operations Central 2,973,922 144,751 4.9 Eastern 8,002,088 418,472 5.2 Great Lakes 12,556,805 749,353 6.0 New England 3,106,122 81,938 2.6 Northwestern Mountain 8,391,973 252,373 3.0 Southern 17,920,957 914,709 5.1 Southwestern 10,159,174 652,743 6.4 W estern Pacific 11,318,066 936,144 8.3 Total 74,429,107 4,150,483 5.6 Baseline Air Taxi Fleet Forecast It is important to recognize that the actual air taxi fleet pro- jection levels depend heavily on a number of basic assump- In order to translate the traffic projections into air taxi tions, the most prominent of which are fleet forecasts, assumptions must be made regarding air- craft use and load factors. For the baseline forecasts, it is · Definitions of the relevant universe for the automobile and assumed that the air taxi modes use their fleets at the rate commercial air travel markets; of two flights per day for piston, turboprop, and light jet · "Full price of travel" estimates of the various modes, which and three flights per day for VLJs (due to the spread of per- depend on (among other things) uncertain estimates of the seat services). An average passenger load factor of approx- unit costs of providing traditional charter operations, wait imately 70% is also assumed. With an average flight time of and/or delay times associated with commercial air travel, about 1.3 h, this works out to approximately 1,200 h of uti- and road congestion associated with automobile travel; lization per year for VLJs and 800 h for the other aircraft · Actual availability of new "per-seat" VLJ services and/or types. This is well above current utilization rates for small low-cost piston services; and GA aircraft (which are more on the order of a few hundred · Perceived similarities or differences between new services hours per year), but still only a fraction of the utilization and traditional charter services. rates typical of large commercial aircraft. The required fleets to provide the projected trips at these rates are shown Using different assumptions for any of these factors could in Table 18.15 have significant impacts on the estimated results. Operational Impacts on Airports 15 The 2007 projections from the model are well below the current aggre- gate air taxi fleet shown earlier in Table 2. The two really cannot be Given the baseline projections, the trip estimates are all compared for a variety of reasons, including that (1) the FAA air taxi def- tied to specific locations and airports, so the total number initions from Table 2 are quite different and cover a much larger portion of associated air taxi operations on an airport-specific basis can of overall flight activity than the actual usage assignments used here based be aggregated. The projected operational increases for 2017 on ETMS activity and (2) the utilization rates used in this analysis are much higher than the historical averages for piston, turboprop, and jet compared with the TAF 2007 total operation estimates are categories shown in Table 3, which are confounded because they reflect summarized in Table 19; the average operational increase combined activity of aircraft across different usage categories. by 2017 relative to the 2007 baseline is on the order of 6%.
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23 Table 20. Added VLJ air taxi operations by 2017--top five airports by region. FAA Itinerant + Added VLJ Air Taxi Region Locid Facility City State Local Ops 2007 Ops by 2017 SUS Spirit of St. Louis St. Louis MO 146,384 12,830 MKC Charles B. Wheeler Downtown Kansas City MO 95,438 8,283 Central DSM Des Moines Intl Des Moines IA 106,211 6,695 OJC Johnson County Executive Olathe KS 70,438 3,058 SGF Springfield-Branson National Springfield MO 74,504 2,198 HPN Westchester County White Plains NY 202,572 25,259 TEB Teterboro Teterboro NJ 202,193 23,672 Eastern SYR Syracuse Hancock Intl Syracuse NY 107,749 16,506 IAG Niagara Falls Intl Niagara Falls NY 39,413 15,134 AGC Allegheny County Pittsburgh PA 82,185 13,858 PWK Chicago Executive Chicago/Prospect Heights IL 118,496 42,987 LUK Cincinnati Muni Airport Lunken Field Cincinnati OH 72,717 30,942 Great Lakes YIP W illow Run Detroit MI 84,968 13,504 DET Coleman A. Young Muni Detroit MI 77,571 12,033 ATW Outagamie County Rgnl Appleton WI 46,440 11,897 OWD Norwood Memorial Norwood MA 84,784 12,873 BED Laurence G. Hanscom Fld Bedford MA 169,471 4,775 New England BVY Beverly Muni Beverly MA 69,351 3,554 ASH Boire Field Nashua NH 104,237 1,933 OXC Waterbury-Oxford Oxford CT 60,829 1,708 APA Centennial Denver CO 329,959 19,551 BJC Rocky Mountain Metropolitan Denver CO 167,968 6,188 Northwestern Mountain DRO Durango-La Plata County Durango CO 57,123 4,845 G JT W alker Field Grand Junction CO 74,007 4,556 HIO Portland-Hillsboro Portland OR 224,461 4,534 PDK Dekalb-Peachtree Atlanta GA 223,399 35,184 FTY Fulton County Airport-Brown Field Atlanta GA 122,196 29,093 Southern LZU Gwinnett County - Briscoe Field Lawrenceville GA 85,686 26,682 IG X Horace W illiams Chapel Hill NC 0 17,217 RYY Cobb County-Mc Collum Field Atlanta GA 110,069 17,018 ADS Addison Dallas TX 131,833 92,170 SSF Stinson Muni San Antonio TX 148,631 26,462 Southwestern SGR Sugar Land Rgnl Houston TX 86,538 23,318 EFD Ellington Field Houston TX 144,974 18,357 HYI San Marcos Muni San Marcos TX 120,420 12,984 VGT North Las Vegas Las Vegas NV 219,240 92,655 CRQ Mc Clellan-Palomar Carlsbad CA 215,859 28,667 Western Pacific MYF Montgomery Field San Diego CA 223,410 25,674 HND Henderson Executive Las Vegas NV 67,482 22,006 FAT Fresno Yosemite Intl Fresno CA 156,648 18,705 Obviously the results may vary significantly for specific by all air taxi modes including pistons, turboprops, and facilities; airport-specific air taxi estimates for all 1,842 air- light jets are shown in Table 21. In some cases, the large in- ports included in the study are provided electronically in creases shown are due primarily to the VLJ or low-cost the appendix for Volume 2 of this report. The five airports piston modes capturing significant shares of popular auto- in each FAA region with the largest increases in projected mobile traffic corridors such as between Southern California activity by 2017 from VLJ operations are shown in Table 20; and Las Vegas and the Texas triangle connecting Dallas, corresponding forecasts that account for increased activity Houston, and San Antonio.
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24 Table 21. Added total air taxi operations by 2017--top five airports by region. FAA Itinerant + Added Total Air Region Locid Facility City State Local Ops 2007 Taxi Ops by 2017 SUS Spirit of St. Louis St. Louis MO 146,384 16,897 MKC Charles B. Wheeler Downtown Kansas City MO 95,438 14,359 Central DSM Des Moines Intl Des Moines IA 106,211 8,784 SGF Springfield-Branson National Springfield MO 74,504 5,970 OJC Johnson County Executive Olathe KS 70,438 5,784 HPN Westchester County White Plains NY 202,572 31,561 TEB Teterboro Teterboro NJ 202,193 29,347 Eastern SYR Syracuse Hancock Intl Syracuse NY 107,749 23,103 AGC Allegheny County Pittsburgh PA 82,185 18,691 HEF Manassas Rgnl/Harry P. Davis Field Manassas VA 110,132 18,275 PWK Chicago Executive Chicago/Prospect Heights IL 118,496 51,870 LUK Cincinnati Muni Airport Lunken Field Cincinnati OH 72,717 42,304 Great Lakes PTK Oakland County Intl Pontiac MI 209,198 17,808 YIP W illow Run Detroit MI 84,968 17,730 DET Coleman A. Young Muni Detroit MI 77,571 17,449 OWD Norwood Memorial Norwood MA 84,784 15,697 BED Laurence G. Hanscom Fld Bedford MA 169,471 7,010 New England BVY Beverly Muni Beverly MA 69,351 4,484 ASH Boire Field Nashua NH 104,237 2,967 MVY Marthas Vineyard Vineyard Haven MA 52,060 2,706 APA Centennial Denver CO 329,959 30,405 PAE Snohomish County (Paine Fld) Everett WA 131,836 13,455 Northwestern Mountain BJC Rocky Mountain Metropolitan Denver CO 167,968 10,957 HIO Portland-Hillsboro Portland OR 224,461 10,177 TTD Portland-Troutdale Portland OR 86,721 10,154 PDK Dekalb-Peachtree Atlanta GA 223,399 47,433 FTY Fulton County Airport-Brown Field Atlanta GA 122,196 34,773 Southern LZU Gwinnett County - Briscoe Field Lawrenceville GA 85,686 34,213 RYY Cobb County-Mc Collum Field Atlanta GA 110,069 20,955 ORL Executive Orlando FL 151,734 20,277 ADS Addison Dallas TX 131,833 111,988 SSF Stinson Muni San Antonio TX 148,631 37,656 Southwestern SGR Sugar Land Rgnl Houston TX 86,538 31,147 EFD Ellington Field Houston TX 144,974 25,096 HYI San Marcos Muni San Marcos TX 120,420 18,187 VGT North Las Vegas Las Vegas NV 219,240 250,199 MYF Montgomery Field San Diego CA 223,410 78,118 Western Pacific CRQ Mc Clellan-Palomar Carlsbad CA 215,859 60,820 SEE Gillespie Field San Diego/El Cajon CA 295,342 56,044 HND Henderson Executive Las Vegas NV 67,482 47,108