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CHAPTER 4
Conclusions
Estimation of Projected instead. On the other hand, the analysis indicates that sales of
Fleet Changes VLJs (and low-cost piston aircraft) for air taxi use are likely
to displace automobile and commercial air traffic, leading to
Table 22 provides summary estimates of the projected fleet substantial increases in activity at certain airports that can
changes from this analysis. The sales forecast for the GA seg- handle large numbers of the new air taxi services. But overall,
ment projects that approximately 1,650 VLJs may be sold for the projected increase in operations by 2017 at VLJ-ready air-
use in the United States by 2012; by 2017, this total is projected ports relative to 2007 is relatively modest, on the order of 6%.
to grow to around 3,500. The air taxi forecast, which is more
speculative, projects 751 VLJs by 2012 plus more than 400 new
Comparison with Other
low-cost piston aircraft that may be used for air taxi services.
Fleet Forecasts
By 2017, the cumulative air taxi VLJ fleet may total more than
1,300, with about half that number added to the air taxi pis- Even as stated, the total VLJ fleet projections are somewhat
ton fleet. lower than some other forecasts that have been published in
These projections are subject to a large degree of uncer- the last one to two years, but this is not surprising given recent
tainty, and the forecasts were completed prior to very re- events. Overall it is believed that the VLJ market will grow over
cent industry developments including the bankruptcies of the next few years, albeit somewhat more slowly than the opti-
an important air taxi provider and VLJ manufacturer. mistic projections forecasted by others. A comparison of fore-
The overall level of activity at small airports is not likely to casts is shown in Table 23; it is important to keep in mind that
be affected significantly by VLJs that are purchased for tradi- a substantial portion of the observed variations may be due to
tional GA because their main effect will be a simple displace- differences in geographic coverage (United States only versus
ment of sales that would have gone to other small GA aircraft worldwide).
Table 22. Projected cumulative U.S. fleet additions
of small GA aircraft from 2007.*
2012 2017
GA Use - Total 11,279 25,179
VLJ 1,647 3,547
Other 9,632 21,632
Air Taxi Use - Total 1,188 1,967
Piston 411 593
Turboprop 13 31
Light Jet 12 39
VLJ 751 1,305
VLJ Total 2,398 4,852
*Note: Figures and percentages may not add to totals due to rounding.
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Table 23. Comparison with other VLJ fleet forecasts.
Source Issue Date 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000
US Only thru 2017
Current Analysis Nov 2008 GA 3547 AirTaxi 1305
Worldwide thru 2017
Forecast International Sep 2008 5600
US Only thru 2025
FAA Mar 2008 4500-5000 prorated thru 2017
Worldwide thru 2017
Embraer Nov 2007 GA 3380 AirTaxi 3950
Worldwide thru 2016
PMI-Media Sep 2007 7650
Worldwide thru 2017
Honeywell Aerospace Sep 2007 9800
