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25 Estimation of Projected Fleet Changes Table 22 provides summary estimates of the projected fleet changes from this analysis. The sales forecast for the GA seg- ment projects that approximately 1,650 VLJs may be sold for use in the United States by 2012; by 2017, this total is projected to grow to around 3,500. The air taxi forecast, which is more speculative, projects 751 VLJs by 2012 plus more than 400 new low-cost piston aircraft that may be used for air taxi services. By 2017, the cumulative air taxi VLJ fleet may total more than 1,300, with about half that number added to the air taxi pis- ton fleet. These projections are subject to a large degree of uncer- tainty, and the forecasts were completed prior to very re- cent industry developments including the bankruptcies of an important air taxi provider and VLJ manufacturer. The overall level of activity at small airports is not likely to be affected significantly by VLJs that are purchased for tradi- tional GA because their main effect will be a simple displace- ment of sales that would have gone to other small GA aircraft instead. On the other hand, the analysis indicates that sales of VLJs (and low-cost piston aircraft) for air taxi use are likely to displace automobile and commercial air traffic, leading to substantial increases in activity at certain airports that can handle large numbers of the new air taxi services. But overall, the projected increase in operations by 2017 at VLJ-ready air- ports relative to 2007 is relatively modest, on the order of 6%. Comparison with Other Fleet Forecasts Even as stated, the total VLJ fleet projections are somewhat lower than some other forecasts that have been published in the last one to two years, but this is not surprising given recent events. Overall it is believed that the VLJ market will grow over the next few years, albeit somewhat more slowly than the opti- mistic projections forecasted by others. A comparison of fore- casts is shown in Table 23; it is important to keep in mind that a substantial portion of the observed variations may be due to differences in geographic coverage (United States only versus worldwide). C H A P T E R 4 Conclusions 2012 2017 GA Use - Total 11,279 25,179 745,3746,1JLV 236,12236,9rehtO Air Taxi Use - Total 1,188 1,967 395114notsiP 1331porpobruT 9321teJthgiL 503,1157JLV VLJ Total 2,398 4,852 *Note: Figures and percentages may not add to totals due to rounding. Table 22. Projected cumulative U.S. fleet additions of small GA aircraft from 2007.*
26 Source Issue Date US Only thru 2017 Current Analysis Nov 2008 5031ixaTriA7453AG Worldwide thru 2017 Forecast International Sep 2008 5600 US Only thru 2025 FAA Mar 2008 4500-5000 prorated thru 2017 Worldwide thru 2017 Embraer Nov 2007 0593ixaTriA0833AG Worldwide thru 2016 PMI-Media Sep 2007 7650 Worldwide thru 2017 Honeywell Aerospace Sep 2007 9800 9000 100005000 6000 7000 80001000 2000 3000 4000 Table 23. Comparison with other VLJ fleet forecasts.
