Airports and the Newest Generation of General Aviation Aircraft, Volume 1: Forecast (2009)

Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

TRANSPORTAT ION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2009 www.TRB.org A I R P O R T C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M ACRP REPORT 17 Research sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration Subject Areas Aviation Airports and the Newest Generation of General Aviation Aircraft Volume 1: Forecast William Spitz A N D Richard Golaszewski GRA, INC. Jenkintown, PA

AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM Airports are vital national resources. They serve a key role in trans- portation of people and goods and in regional, national, and inter- national commerce. They are where the nation’s aviation system connects with other modes of transportation and where federal respon- sibility for managing and regulating air traffic operations intersects with the role of state and local governments that own and operate most airports. Research is necessary to solve common operating problems, to adapt appropriate new technologies from other industries, and to introduce innovations into the airport industry. The Airport Coopera- tive Research Program (ACRP) serves as one of the principal means by which the airport industry can develop innovative near-term solutions to meet demands placed on it. The need for ACRP was identified in TRB Special Report 272: Airport Research Needs: Cooperative Solutions in 2003, based on a study spon- sored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The ACRP carries out applied research on problems that are shared by airport operating agencies and are not being adequately addressed by existing federal research programs. It is modeled after the successful National Coopera- tive Highway Research Program and Transit Cooperative Research Pro- gram. The ACRP undertakes research and other technical activities in a variety of airport subject areas, including design, construction, mainte- nance, operations, safety, security, policy, planning, human resources, and administration. The ACRP provides a forum where airport opera- tors can cooperatively address common operational problems. The ACRP was authorized in December 2003 as part of the Vision 100-Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act. The primary partici- pants in the ACRP are (1) an independent governing board, the ACRP Oversight Committee (AOC), appointed by the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Transportation with representation from airport oper- ating agencies, other stakeholders, and relevant industry organizations such as the Airports Council International-North America (ACI-NA), the American Association of Airport Executives (AAAE), the National Association of State Aviation Officials (NASAO), and the Air Transport Association (ATA) as vital links to the airport community; (2) the TRB as program manager and secretariat for the governing board; and (3) the FAA as program sponsor. In October 2005, the FAA executed a contract with the National Academies formally initiating the program. The ACRP benefits from the cooperation and participation of airport professionals, air carriers, shippers, state and local government officials, equipment and service suppliers, other airport users, and research orga- nizations. Each of these participants has different interests and respon- sibilities, and each is an integral part of this cooperative research effort. Research problem statements for the ACRP are solicited periodically but may be submitted to the TRB by anyone at any time. It is the responsibility of the AOC to formulate the research program by iden- tifying the highest priority projects and defining funding levels and expected products. Once selected, each ACRP project is assigned to an expert panel, appointed by the TRB. Panels include experienced practitioners and research specialists; heavy emphasis is placed on including airport pro- fessionals, the intended users of the research products. The panels pre- pare project statements (requests for proposals), select contractors, and provide technical guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The process for developing research problem statements and selecting research agencies has been used by TRB in managing cooper- ative research programs since 1962. As in other TRB activities, ACRP project panels serve voluntarily without compensation. Primary emphasis is placed on disseminating ACRP results to the intended end-users of the research: airport operating agencies, service providers, and suppliers. The ACRP produces a series of research reports for use by airport operators, local agencies, the FAA, and other interested parties, and industry associations may arrange for work- shops, training aids, field visits, and other activities to ensure that results are implemented by airport-industry practitioners. ACRP REPORT 17, VOLUME 1 Project 10-04 ISSN 1935-9802 ISBN 978-0-309-11794-4 Library of Congress Control Number 2009933918 © 2009 Transportation Research Board COPYRIGHT PERMISSION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB or FAA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the Airport Cooperative Research Program conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the Governing Board of the National Research Council. Such approval reflects the Governing Board’s judgment that the project concerned is appropriate with respect to both the purposes and resources of the National Research Council. The members of the technical advisory panel selected to monitor this project and to review this report were chosen for recognized scholarly competence and with due consideration for the balance of disciplines appropriate to the project. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied are those of the research agency that performed the research, and while they have been accepted as appropriate by the technical panel, they are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the Federal Aviation Administration of the U.S. Department of Transportation. Each report is reviewed and accepted for publication by the technical panel according to procedures established and monitored by the Transportation Research Board Executive Committee and the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research Council, and the Federal Aviation Administration (sponsor of the Airport Cooperative Research Program) do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the clarity and completeness of the project reporting. Cover Photo courtesy of the City of Naples Airport Authority. Published reports of the AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from: Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet at http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore Printed in the United States of America

CRP STAFF FOR ACRP REPORT 17, VOLUME 1 Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Crawford F. Jencks, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Michael R. Salamone, ACRP Manager Theresia H. Schatz, Senior Program Officer Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Hilary Freer, Senior Editor Andréa Briere, Editor ACRP PROJECT 10-04 PANEL Field of Operations Theodore D. Soliday, City of Naples Airport Authority, Naples, FL (Chair) H. Norman Abramson, Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, TX Tara Harl, St. Cloud State University, St. Cloud, MN Paul Meyers, Aviation Management Consulting Group, Inc., Centennial, CO Gary Shafer, Southern Illinois Airport, Carbondale, IL Christy Yaffa, Wyoming DOT, Cheyenne, WY Paul Devoti, FAA Liaison Kenneth Feith, US Environmental Protection Agency Liaison Alex Gertsen, American Association of Airport Executives Liaison (formerly) Jens C. Hennig, General Aviation Manufacturers Association Liaison Christine Gerencher, TRB Liaison C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S

ACRP Report 17: Airports and The Newest Generation of General Aviation Aircraft is pub- lished as a 2-volume set. Volume 1 provides a Forecast of anticipated fleet activity associ- ated with the newest generation of General Aviation (GA) aircraft over a 5- and 10-year out- look. Volume 2 offers a Guidebook in a user-friendly format that helps airport operators assess the practical requirements and innovative approaches that may be needed to accom- modate these new aircraft. This Volume 1 Forecast will be of interest to airport operators currently serving GA air- craft, as well as those that are considering the potential impact of incorporating commer- cial service that may be provided by Very Light Jets (VLJs) and other advanced small GA aircraft at their airports. Using 2007 as the baseline, this Forecast provides 5- and 10-year fleet size projections for the newest generation of GA aircraft and highlights a variety of fleets and their manufacturers. Both traditional GA uses as well as commercial air taxi uses are considered. In addition to fleet estimates, operational activity projections by VLJs used in commer- cial air taxi services are provided for over 1,800 US airports. In conjunction with the Vol- ume 2 Guidebook, these fleet and activity forecasts can be used by airport operators to assess both the practical requirements and the innovative options for accommodating these new types of GA aircraft. Airport planners can use this Forecast as the basis for upgrading exist- ing, and creating new airport facilities (along with the services needed). Service providers and industry stakeholders focused on GA activity will find this Forecast helpful in seeking new business opportunities in the foreseeable future. Some forecasts predict that an increasing number of new, smaller GA aircraft will take to the skies in the near future. These forecasts suggest that some airports will see an increase in traffic and greater demand for GA infrastructure, facilities, and services. However, according to some aviation industry experts, many of these forecasts appear over-optimistic. Airport operators are concerned that the forecasts do not adequately address airport considerations. The fundamental questions for airports are, how much will traffic increase from these aircraft; which airports will experience the traffic increase; and what infrastructure, facilities, and services will be needed. If there is a large increase in aircraft activity as a result of these new aircraft, already busy GA airports will be further congested, and the smallest GA airports may not be prepared to handle this potential increase in activity. Consequently, airports need to know what level of aircraft activity they can expect and what infrastructure, facilities, and services are needed to accommodate the newest generation of GA aircraft adequately. They need information on the likelihood of GA aircraft activity increases at airports by category of airport and F O R E W O R D By Theresia H. Schatz Staff Officer Transportation Research Board

geographical location. Moreover, no single resource document summarizes what can and should be done to prepare airport infrastructure, facilities, and services to accommodate the increased activity while maintaining productivity. Under ACRP Project 10-04, a research team led by GRA, Inc. conducted the research with the objectives to (1) forecast GA aircraft activity by category of airport and geographical location due to the introduction of the newest generation of GA aircraft and (2) develop a user-friendly guidebook that will help airport operators to (a) estimate the level of activity from these aircraft at their particular airport; (b) assess the impact of these aircraft on their particular airport’s infrastructure, facilities, and services; (c) accommodate existing and anticipated demand for facilities and services from these aircraft; and (d) attract new business from the newest generation of GA aircraft. For the purposes of this project, the newest generation of GA aircraft refers to small-sized (12,500 lbs or less) aircraft with high-technology “all glass” digital cockpits, including light jets, VLJs, and new advanced- technology piston and turbo-prop aircraft. The need for this research began in 2006–07, when the hype surrounding VLJs reached a crescendo. With a significant downshift in the global economy in 2008–2009, the reduced demand has affected the aviation industry as a whole, particularly the GA market. Nonethe- less, this Forecast and the Guidebook will help airport operators and planners prepare for the next wave of change. An increase in demand for this newest generation of GA aircraft and its impact on airports; the associated facilities; and information related to best plan for future growth, expansion, and potential new opportunities are likely to be needed.

C O N T E N T S 1 Summary 3 Chapter 1 Overview 3 Aircraft Coverage 4 Geographic Coverage 4 Review of Existing GA and Air Taxi Markets 5 Chapter 2 GA Forecast 5 Introduction 5 Projections for the Overall Market 7 Market Segmentation Analysis 9 Outlook for VLJ Manufacturers 9 Eclipse 500 10 Cessna Citation Mustang 10 Embraer Phenom 100 10 The Fractional Ownership Market 10 Baseline GA Fleet Forecast 11 Operational Impacts on Airports 12 Chapter 3 Air Taxi Forecast 12 Introduction 13 Data Details 13 Airport Data 14 Census Data 14 Current Air Taxi Population 15 Current Commercial Air Population 15 Current Automobile Population 16 Model Assumptions 17 Explanatory Variables and Model Estimation 18 Statistical Results 19 Baseline Forecast Assumptions 19 Outlook for Air Taxi Services Utilizing Small Next-Generation Aircraft 20 VLJ Mode Attributes 20 Spread and Distribution of VLJ Per-Seat versus Traditional Charter Services 20 Spread and Distribution of Low-Cost Piston Services 20 Other Modes 21 Impact of Increasing Fuel Prices 21 Overall Travel Growth 21 Projected Mode Shares and Trip Totals 22 Baseline Air Taxi Fleet Forecast 22 Operational Impacts on Airports 25 Chapter 4 Conclusions 25 Estimation of Projected Fleet Changes 25 Comparison with Other Fleet Forecasts