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3 CHAPTER 1 Overview A primary goal of ACRP Project 10-04 is to produce 5- and most of the attention in public discussions of such aircraft 10-yr fleet forecasts for next-generation small general aviation has focused on new VLJ designs, the present analysis brack- (GA) aircraft. The baseline year is 2007, thus producing fore- ets the VLJ segment on both ends and includes existing casts for the years 2012 and 2017. A key related requirement designs both at the low end (i.e., smaller piston aircraft such is to assess how the use of these aircraft will impact airports as the Cirrus SR-22, the Cessna/Columbia 350 and 400, the across the United States. Diamond DA42 Twin Star, and the Mooney M20 series) and There are two major potential market segments for use of at the upper end (i.e., the "light jet" category up to 12,500 lbs such aircraft that have been widely discussed in the industry: that includes the Cessna CJ1 and CJ2 and the Hawker (1)traditionalGAuse,includingprivate,personal,andcorporate Beechcraft Premier 1A). This report often refers to the "VLJ demand (including fractional ownership) that is governed by market," which is meant to include the larger market at FAA Part 91 regulations, and (2) commercial charter or air taxi both ends. Within the VLJ segment, the primary focus is on use under FAA Part 135, as exhibited both by traditional char- the following twin-engine models that began actual pro- ter services where one essentially rents an entire aircraft for a duction by the end of 2008: specific trip or for a specific amount of time, and new "per-seat" services. The per-seat model in particular has garnered much · Eclipse 500, interest, with some analysts predicting that such services have · Cessna Citation Mustang, and the potential to dramatically expand the demand for and use of · Embraer Phenom1 100. very light jets (VLJs) and other next-generation small aircraft. It is very important to assess the potential for these seg- HondaJet is another twin-engine program whose prospects ments separately. In the traditional GA market, it is believed appear viable within the next few years; current plans call for that sales of VLJ aircraft will, for the most part, displace sales first deliveries in 2010. In addition, there are a number of of other aircraft including high-end pistons, turboprops, and single-engine VLJ models currently under development, the light jets. So even though ultimately there may be a significant most prominent of which are the Diamond D-Jet, Eclipse VLJ fleet that is used for traditional GA purposes, growth in 400, Piper Jet, and Cirrus SJ50. Prospects for these programs overall airport operations will not vary much from historical are less certain although the D-Jet is further along than the averages observed over the past several years. On the other other programs. After modifying the engine design in 2008, hand, if the air taxi market develops into a significant seg- Diamond's current plans call for first deliveries in mid-2009. ment, it may have a much larger impact on GA airport oper- It should also be noted that two companies with VLJ pro- ations since much of the activity represent new small aircraft grams were liquidated in 2008--Adam Aircraft (which was activity (displacing commercial air service and automobile developing the A700 twin-engine VLJ) and ATG (which was trips). These issues are discussed in more detail below. developing a two-seat military trainer-style jet called the Javelin). Aircraft Coverage 1 The Embraer "executive jet" program also includes the Phenom 300, An initial determination was made to limit the aircraft which is a larger version of the 100 series. Its projected size and weight covered to those weighing less than 12,500 lbs and to focus are well above the 12,500 lb limit that prescribes the bounds of the on those with advanced, modern avionics systems. While current analysis.