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1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Innovative Approaches to Addressing Aviation Capacity Issues in Coastal Mega-regions Background and programming that is usually accomplished within single travel modes and political jurisdictions or regions. (2) A major study undertaken by the FAA, known as the FACT 2 Report (1), suggested that the nation's airports will be able to provide for adequate aviation capacity in the United Questions Addressed States to the year 2025, except for two major areas on the East The Executive Summary presents a shortened presentation and West Coasts. As noted in the Project Statement: of the results ACRP Project 03-10, which deals with the fol- lowing four questions: FACT 2 indicates metropolitan areas and regions along the east and west coasts are experiencing large amounts of growth in pop- ulation and economic activity that demonstrate chronic conges- 1. Is there a long-term crisis in aviation capacity in the tion problems in the air and on the ground. Based on the FACT 2 coastal mega-regions, and is the basic premise of an over- information, conditions in these two coastal mega-regions are arching problem valid? If present patterns were simply projected to get worse in the future. Traditional approaches are continued, what would be the cost of doing nothing? unlikely to address these problems that extend beyond current 2. Is there a need for better integrating the aviation planning jurisdictional and legislative authorities of existing agencies. (2) process with the other modes, with a particular emphasis on the emerging role of high-speed rail (HSR)? Does the scale ACRP Report 31: Innovative Approaches to Addressing Avi- of possible impacts merit an alteration of the aviation plan- ation Capacity Issues in Coastal Mega-regions was created to ning process? Might major advances in alternative trans- examine the nature of the problem of addressing aviation portation modes obviate the need for dealing with aviation capacity issues in the two coastal mega-regions. capacity issues? 3. What changes could be made in the aviation planning Objectives of the Research process to make it more relevant to the public policy ques- tions now being asked, which might demand alternative This Executive Summary provides a capsule summary of the geographic focus and alternative tools and methods? content of each of the six chapters of ACRP Report 31. Specific 4. Given that some solutions to the issue of aviation capacity suggestions for action or further research are presented in the will require new multimodal and multijurisdictional strate- summary of Chapter 6, where they are included in more detail gies, are reforms on new approaches needed within the in the main body of the text. Each of the major conclusions was industry to better manage the airports that already exist? created in order to carry out the objective of this research: The objective of this research is to identify potential actions to Four Conclusions of ACRP Report 31 address the constrained aviation system capacity and growing travel demand in the high-density, multijurisdictional, multi- The Executive Summary is structured around the presen- modal, coastal mega-regions along the east and west coasts. tation of the four main conclusions of the research. In the New and innovative processes/methodologies are needed if the report, they are presented in the following order: aviation capacity issues in these congested coastal mega-regions are going to be successfully addressed. These high-density areas invite an entirely new approach for planning and decision making 1. Under the present relationship between the airports and the that goes beyond the existing practice for transportation planning airlines, there is a serious lack of usable aviation capacity in

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2 the mega-regions. Chapter 1 builds the case that there is a An Overarching Theme in the Research growing problem in the mega-regions and that the eco- nomic and environmental cost of doing nothing is sig- The conclusions and suggestions of the research share (to nificant. Without a proper response to the revealed a varying degree) a common theme. The report concludes problems, the basic validity of the long-term capacity fore- that the aviation planning process could benefit from becom- casts must be considered to be in doubt. The chapter con- ing more user-oriented, more transparent, and, thus, more cludes that a new approach is needed. accountable. If the unreliability of service at a given airport 2. To gain access to alternative forms of short-distance trip- reaches a "trigger point," the operating rules could be changed making capacity, the aviation planning system could benefit to regain the lost level of reliability for the benefit of the user. If from becoming more multimodal. Chapter 2 reviews the the service levels of HSR, as experienced by the user, provide a extent to which aviation planning is inherently intertwined superior overall product for the customer, that customer should with the planning and analysis of capacity increases in be encouraged to select the higher quality good. If the plan- other longer distance modes, specifically HSR and highway ning process can explain why a given customer would reject planning. use of a "reliever" airport, that process could muster the mar- 3. To gain better utilization of existing underused capacity at ket research tools of user preference/choice to form policies to smaller airports in the region, the aviation capacity planning facilitate a change in those service conditions. If major agencies system could benefit from becoming more multijurisdic- can learn to organize their most basic planning data in a man- tional. Chapter 3 analyzes briefly the market potential of ner that can be shared with others, a user-based description of some smaller scale regional airports to provide additional demand can be assembled, replacing a modally based format for capacity to the systems in the mega-regions, provided that the benefit of all. the operating carriers decided to take advantage of their Responsibilities for providing reliability in air services presence. The chapter examines the importance of gather- should be transparent and accountable. Thus, those responsi- ing and analyzing data on a multi-airport, super-regional ble for aviation planning should take steps to clarify the issue basis and shows examples of how such new regional avia- of accountability and bring it closer in format and method to tion planning tools could be used. the established continuing, comprehensive, cooperative plan- 4. The research has concluded that the current system suffers ning process, which, in theory, applies to all the ground trans- from unclear responsibility; no one has the authority and portation modes. accountability for the management of congestion at mega- region airports. Chapter 5 builds the case that capacity in the Summary of Chapter 1--Defining the mega-regions will be significantly increased only when the Issues: Defining the Problem managers are empowered to solve the problem. The chapter concludes that the management of existing resources could Chapter 1 presents an overview and introduction to the four be improved and that this represents the most important major themes developed in the project (see Exhibit S1 for high- single element in a larger strategy to deal with potential avia- lights and key themes included in Chapter 1). Chapter 1 also tion capacity issues in the coastal mega-regions. introduces the two study areas in terms of their geography, There is a major problem in the provision of effective aviation capacity in the coastal mega-regions, and the economic impacts of doing nothing are significant. The number of air trips within the West Coast study area is vastly higher than the number of air trips within the East Coast study area, even though their geographic area is similar. The present amount of air travel delay is vastly higher in the East Coast study area than in the West Coast study area, even though the intra-area volumes are much lower. Using a range of economic assumptions, the "cost" of present air travel delay in the coastal mega-regions ranges from a low of about $3 billion per year to a high of over $9 billion per year (2007). Using the same range of assumptions, the cost of air travel delay in the future (2025) would range from about $9 billion to about $20 billion, if none of the present capacity constraints were addressed--that is, the cost of doing nothing. Much of the aviation industry's capacity forecasting assumes that, by one means or another, a process of up-gauging of aircraft will occur: the research team did not find any support for the assumption that systematic up-gauging of air- craft will occur without some form of public policy intervention. Exhibit S1. Highlights and key themes included in Chapter 1.

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3 demographics, and propensity for shorter air trips within and The Scale of Air Travel within the between their mega-regions. Two Study Areas This section of the Executive Summary deals with the city- The Geographic Scale of the Mega-regions pair volumes of existing air travel, which are perhaps better The East Coast study area generally includes the states from described as "metro-region pair" passenger volumes between New England in the north to Virginia in the south. Thus, the "families of airports." Classic origindestination (OD) "desire term East Coast study area includes all of the geography con- lines" are presented for the East Coast study area and the West Coast study area, making possible a startling comparison of tained in the states between Maine and Virginia. The term the aviation passenger volumes between the two coastal areas. Eastern Mega-region refers to the areas covered by the Boston region airports to the north and to the areas of Richmond and Norfolk, VA, to the south. The western edge of the Eastern Metro-area to Metro-area Pair Air Passenger Flows Mega-region incorporates Syracuse, NY, and Harrisburg, PA. within the Eastern Mega-region The West Coast study area includes all of California and Figure S3 summarizes air passenger travel within the East Clark County, Nevada. The term Northern California Mega- Coast study area between January and December 2007. It can region refers to the Bay Area region and the Sacramento region. be best understood as a desire line diagram showing the flows The term Southern California Mega-region refers to the Los between airports of origin to the airports of destination of Angeles Basin area, the San Diego region, and Clark County somewhat under 10 million air trips. People making trips (NV) together. between Manchester, NH, and Richmond, VA, may under- take this trip by transferring at a point such as Newark (EWR), Distances. Each of the two maps (Figures S1 and S2) is LaGuardia (LGA), or Philadelphia (PHL). From the vantage presented at similar scale: in the East Coast study area, the point of OD analysis, they are portrayed here as flows between northernmost mega-region airport, MHT (Manchester, NH), the Boston region family of airports and the Richmond/ is about 487 miles from the farthest airport (Richmond, VA). Norfolk family of airports. These East Coast aviation flows are In the West Coast study area, the distance from the Sacramento examined on an airport-by-airport basis in Chapter 4 of the airport to the San Diego airport is 480 miles. report. (NB: The lack of a line between two areas in Figure S3 means that the number of air trips is insignificant.) Population. In terms of population, the two study areas are not so similar. The East Coast study area has about 69 mil- Metro-area to Metro-area Pair Air Passenger Flows lion inhabitants, whereas the West Coast study area has about within the West Coast Study Area 38 million. This difference is explored in Chapter 1 where the number of internal aviation trips within each study area is Air passenger travel within the West Coast study area be- compared. The results are startling and point to real differ- tween January and December 2007 is summarized in Figure S4. ences in the transportation behavior of the two coastal It can be best understood as a desire line diagram showing the regions. flows between airports of origin to the airports of destination Figures S1 and S2. The geographic extent of the East Coast study area and the West Coast study area (scale is constant) (3).

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4 Note: The absence of a line between two areas means that the number of air trips is insignificant. Note: The absence of a line between two areas means that the number of air trips is insignificant. Figure S3. Air passenger flows between metro regions in 2007: East Coast (4 ). Figure S4. Air passenger flows between metro regions in 2007: West Coast (4 ). of about 20 million air trips. As in Figure S3, flows are expressed In terms of coast-versus-coast comparison, the volume of air from their airport of origin to their airport of destination with- travelers between the Los Angeles Region and the Bay Area out reference to possible use of transfers or connections. These Region is more than five times the air traveler volume between lines represent the flow of airport passengers between the large the New York region family of airports and the Washington/ metropolitan areas and other large metropolitan areas. These Baltimore family of airports. It is almost five times the volume West Coast aviation flows are examined on an airport-by- between the Boston region family of airports and the New York airport basis in Chapter 4 of the report. region family of airports. It is also clear that air travelers on the West Coast have a short-distance trip generation rate that is Implications of Scale between the more than three times that of those of the East Coast. Two Study Areas The first observation about our two study areas is that The Scale of the Problem of Airport the West Coast generates about twice the volume of short- Congestion in the Mega-regions distance air passengers than does the East Coast. And within The research team has estimated that the phenomenon of the West Coast study area, it is the air trips between the Bay aviation congestion associated with 11 of the largest airports Area family of airports to the north and the Los Angeles in the two coastal study areas resulted in passenger-perceived Basin family of airports to the south that dominate the delays calculated in the billions of dollars in 2007. travel. The Los Angeles Region, served by LAX, Burbank, Importantly for the interpretations included in ACRP John Wayne, Long Beach, and Ontario together, generates Report 31, those delays were not evenly divided between the 8 million trips to or from the Bay Area region, which is served two coastal study areas. Figure S5 shows the sharp differences by the airports of San Francisco (SFO), Oakland (OAK), and in the delay patterns of the two coastal study areas. The "Total San Jose (SJO). Delay Index" (Figure S5) has been calculated by the research

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5 35 33 29 30 28 24 23 22 25 20 19 19 Minutes 20 18 17 14 13 13 12 12 15 12 11 11 11 10 10 5 0 G rk ia de K a ga Bo s n M ide l ch e Br ter y I O X Jo ur S W nk Lo D e Be o h O K n io se ov na BW le le hi n sto an nc n n ng ieg ac ila JF LA LA A rd SF Sa tar La wa h n ba Jo Sa ay es ul ad lp Pr atio O ua n D e N N B Ph ea R East Coast Airports West Coast Airports Figure S5. Total delay index for East Coast and West Coast airports, expressed as minutes per passenger trip (5). team as the average frequency of delay times average duration Between the years 2003 and 2007, the average on-time of delay, plus the average frequency of cancellation times a performance at the 12 largest coastal mega-region airports value of 3 hours delay per cancellation. It is expressed as num- decreased on average by over 10 points. Applying the 2003 on- ber of minutes of delay per total airport passenger. The index time performance benchmark, this means that the aggregate was calculated from Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) perceived cost across all boardings at the 12 airports of the per- Transtats data (5), for the 12 months of 2007. formance decline in 2007 is approximately $3.9 billion/year The higher volumes are on the West, but the greater con- (see Table S1).1 gestion is on the East, as shown in Figure S5. In short, there is no simple formula that suggests that higher amounts of short- distance air travel are linearly associated with higher levels of The Cost of Doing Nothing airport congestion. The causes of the delay need to be exam- In interviews with airport managers, managers of the fore- ined more carefully, as will be addressed in Chapter 5. casting process, and other leaders in the field, it became clear that in almost every case, in one manner or another, the opti- The Perceived Costs of Delay Times at the mistic assumptions about the amount of capacity that will be Mega-region Airports available in 2025 were based on the intuitive belief that, as demand grows over time, this will be matched by a voluntary The project undertook an estimation of the perceived costs program of up-gauging of the size of aircraft flown to the sub- of aviation delays. Based on a recent study by Resource Systems ject airport--currently a matter almost entirely under the Group, Inc., (RSG), (6) special survey and modeling tech- control of the airlines, not the airport managers. niques were developed to measure the trade-offs (also called The research team devoted considerable attention to the marginal rates of substitution) between the various compo- economic and environmental implications of continuing nents of service associated with air itineraries, resulting in a with the present pattern of degradation in service quality in new measure of the value of time. From these calculations, val- the mega-regions. The Report includes a new analytical pro- ues of time (VOT) to represent the perceived costs of aviation cedure that examines the implications of having attained no delays were calculated. solutions to the issues discussed in this project. The reader The RSG study found that the average VOT for domestic should be aware that these calculations are not based on the air travelers is approximately $70/hour for travelers on busi- ness trips and $31/hour for non-business trips. For the air same set of assumptions as the FACT 2 study, which did travel market, which is split roughly between business explicitly deal with changes in capacity and operations that (40%) and non-business (60%), the weighted average VOT might come into play between now and 2025. Rather, the is approximately $47/hour. That is, air passengers on aver- work of the research team predicts the future conditions age are willing to spend an additional $47 in higher fares to save an hour of travel time or, conversely, will be willing to 1 Chapter 2 reports on a wide range of definitions for these values: using meth- accept an hour of additional travel time for a fare reduction ods adopted in a U.S. Senate Report, the total cost of delays for coastal airports of $47. is calculated at almost $15 million.

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6 Table S1. 2007 Airport flight delay cost estimates (4, 5 ). On-time On-time 2003 2007 2007 Flight Costs (2003 Airport 2003 (%) 2007 (%) Boardings Boardings On-time Benchmark) ($) Baltimore, MD (BWI) 83 77 10,200,000 11,000,000 138,000,000 Boston, MA (BOS) 83 75 11,100,000 13,800,000 209,000,000 Las Vegas, NV (LAS) 85 76 17,800,000 23,100,000 379,000,000 Los Angeles, CA (LAX) 89 80 27,200,000 30,900,000 526,000,000 New York, NY (JFK) 83 69 15,900,000 23,600,000 633,000,000 New York, NY (LGA) 84 72 11,400,000 12,500,000 299,000,000 Newark, NJ (EWR) 83 68 14,800,000 18,200,000 519,000,000 Philadelphia, PA (PHL) 79 70 12,100,000 15,900,000 289,000,000 San Diego, CA (SAN) 88 83 7,700,000 9,400,000 98,000,000 San Francisco, CA (SFO) 89 76 14,400,000 17,600,000 438,000,000 Washington, DC (DCA) 88 77 6,900,000 9,100,000 183,000,000 Washington, DC (IAD) 82 74 8,200,000 11,900,000 182,000,000 157,500,000 197,000,000 3,894,000,000 3.00 2.50 Year 2007 Year 2025 2.00 Cost in Billions 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 JFK LAX EWR LAS PHL SFO LGA BOS IAD BWI DCA SAN Airports Figure S6. The cost of doing nothing: increase in passenger delay costs 20072025, assuming no resolution of key issues (based on Tables S1 and S2). based strictly on the scenario that solutions are not found and Chapter 1 concludes with a concern that the amount of implemented, as shown in Figure S6. 2025 aviation capacity assumed by leaders in the aviation Between the years 2003 and 2025, the average on-time per- community may be based, at least in part, on the working formance at the 12 largest coastal mega-regions airports is assumption that, as demand increases, a voluntary program estimated to decrease on average by 25 points. Of course, of aircraft up-gauging can be expected to take place. Given this assumes status quo operating conditions (no capacity the overall decrease in the average size of aircrafts over the increases, etc.) and assumes air traffic growth as projected in past decade, it is clear that this assumption needs more ana- the FACT 2 report. Applying the 2003 on-time performance lytic attention. This issue is addressed in Chapter 5, after the benchmark, this means that the aggregate perceived cost of presentation of a review of both multimodal and multijuris- missed flight connections and other costs across all boardings dictional issues facing the industry. at the 12 airports of the performance decline in 2025 is over $12 billion/year (see Table S2).2 Summary of Chapter 2--Aviation Capacity and the Need for a Multimodal Context 2All 2025 costs cited here are in 2007 dollars. If a lower VOT used in FAA studies This research has concluded that, to gain the benefit of capac- were applied to the 2003 benchmark assumption, a "low range" estimate of about $9 billion would result. If assumptions made in a U.S. Senate report were ity provision by other high-quality inter-city transportation used, a "high range" estimate would exceed $20 billion. modes, the aviation capacity planning system could become

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7 Table S2. 2025 airport flight delay cost estimates (1, 4, 5 ). On-time On-time 2003 2025 2025 Flight Costs (2003 Airport 2003 (%) 2025 (%) Boardings Boardings On-time Benchmark) ($) Baltimore, MD (BWI) 83 61 10,200,000 14,900,000 613,000,000 Boston, MA (BOS) 83 53 11,100,000 21,100,000 1,212,000,000 Las Vegas, NV (LAS) 85 54 17,800,000 32,900,000 1,899,000,000 Los Angeles, CA (LAX) 89 63 27,200,000 38,800,000 1,898,000,000 New York, NY (JFK) 83 58 15,900,000 27,800,000 1,343,000,000 New York, NY (LGA) 84 54 11,400,000 18,800,000 1,082,000,000 Newark, NJ (EWR) 83 48 14,800,000 25,000,000 1,617,000,000 Philadelphia, PA (PHL) 79 62 12,100,000 16,700,000 533,000,000 San Diego, CA (SAN) 88 63 7,700,000 14,400,000 667,000,000 San Francisco, CA (SFO) 89 66 14,400,000 20,800,000 910,000,000 Washington, DC (DCA) 88 60 6,900,000 12,400,000 639,000,000 Washington, DC (IAD) 82 79 8,200,000 12,800,000 82,000,000 157,500,000 256,300,000 12,496,000,000 more multimodal. Chapter 2 reviews the extent to which avia- and above previous investment commitments). The implica- tion planning is inherently intertwined with the planning and tions of this federal commitment for the need to undertake analysis of policy changes in other longer distance modes, detailed multimodal analysis in such corridors as Boston specifically HSR and highway planning (see Exhibit S2 for NYC, NYCWashington, D.C., and SFOLAX are immediate highlights and key themes included in Chapter 2). in nature and urgent in their ramifications for intermodal and There are key conclusions from this portion of the research multimodal policy making. on two very different levels. First, the report reviews key In the long-term planning period, the research concludes results and conclusions concerning the potential scale of can- that the implications of possible HSR investment on aviation didate HSR investment in the East and West Coast mega- flows could be massive in scale, with a possible diversion of regions. Then, the report reviews the rationale for integrating 10 million aviation passengers in California alone, more than the aviation capacity planning process with that of HSR and 1 million to/from Las Vegas, and more than 3 million in the more general surface transportation planning. Northeast Mega-region. The scale of these numbers suggests that the aviation planning process should explicitly and overtly consider various HSR policy options as input vari- Intermodal Considerations ables for the forecasting process. The federal government is now committed to an increase in The potential impact on aviation volumes from the kind of federal participation in HSR projects of at least $8 billion (over HSR systems now under policy review is significant. A recent The aviation planning process could benefit from becoming more multimodal in nature. Plans for HSR investment now under consideration in both coastal mega-regions could result in a total diversion of up to 15 million air trips per year in the long term. The scale of diversion in the established literature is much higher in the West Coast study area than in the East Coast study area. Analysis undertaken in the EU shows that, when city-center to city-center rail times can be decreased to under 3.5 hours, rail can capture more market share than air. In some cases, such as FrankfurtCologne, HSR acts as a feeder for long-distance flights; in other cases, such as Frank- furtStuttgart, rail does not: the role of rail in a complementary mode should be studied further. High-speed rail can decrease the number of air travelers; without better management of the airports, this may not result in a decrease in flights. Although no breakthrough in highway capacity will change the need for air travel, the highway planning process could be better integrated with aviation capacity planning; better long-distance travel data will result when the two planning processes are combined. Exhibit S2. Highlights and key themes included in Chapter 2.

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8 100% Frankfurt-Cologne 90% 80% Madrid-Seville London-Manchester London-Paris Rail market share (%) 70% Paris-Marseille 60% London-Brussels 50% 40% Rome-Milan 30% 20% London-Edinburgh 10% Madrid-Barcelona 0% 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 Rail journey time Figure S7. EU study of impact of change in rail travel time on air plus rail market share (7). study from the EU undertaken by the British consulting firm in the analysis, these diversion potentials are somewhat spec- Steer Davies Gleave (7) shows that rail services with city center ulative and are presented here only to give a sense of scale to to city center travel times of under 31/2 hours can result in rail the possible diversion phenomenon. capturing a larger market share than air. Figure S7 shows that as rail journey time is improved (moving to the left on the Total system diversions. The California analysis is based x-axis) that market share of the rail plus air market increases on 65 million interregional HSR riders and 20 million intra- (moving upward on the y access).3 regional HSR riders (9). Of the interregional trips, the Cali- This report has reviewed the available literature on poten- fornia forecasting process calculates that 79% were diverted tial diversions from air. Chapter 2 shows that the forecast from auto, 16% were diverted from air, 3% diverted from diversions are greater on the West Coast than on the East other rail, and 2% never made the trip before. Thus, for the Coast. This is in part because the intra-region air passenger ambitious system as a whole, a high-end estimate is that more volumes in the West are twice the scale of those in the East. It than 10 million riders are projected by the project proponents also reflects that a major diversion to rail has already occurred to divert from air in the analysis year of 2030. along the Northeast Corridor. Scale of Diversions from Air to Rail in the Scale of Diversions from Air to Rail in the East Coast Mega-region West Coast Mega-regions On the East Coast, a wide variety of sources were exam- Much of the predicted air diversion in California would ined together for Chapter 2: a key U.S. DOT study forecast come from three major market corridors. Looking at the year that moderate improvements to HSR between Boston and 2030 forecasts undertaken for the California High Speed Rail Washington, D.C., would divert an additional 11% of air pas- Authority, and managed by MTC, (8) if there were about sengers in that corridor; with the assumption of European- 25 million travelers between the Bay Area and Los Angeles, style HSR travel times, the diversion factor would be almost the reported decrease in market share (compared with the 20% of air volume (10). present share) would represent about 5 million air passengers Entirely on the basis of published forecasts (10, 11, 12), the diverted to rail. If there were about 14 million travelers research team assembled a very early and very preliminary between Los Angeles and Sacramento, air would capture estimate of upper limits of diversion from air that might be 3.6 million, or 2 million passengers would be diverted to rail. expected from an assertive program to transform the existing If there were about 7.5 million travelers between the Bay Area Northeast Corridor (NEC) into a European-style HSR system and San Diego, air would capture about 3.4 million, or about and to extend that concept to the many feeder corridors adja- 1.8 million passengers would be diverted to rail. At this point cent to the existing high-speed service area. Chapters 2 and 4 present some of the first summary assess- 3Chapter 2 notes that since the publication of this graphic, better travel times and ments of the impact of alternative HSR system assumptions on rail market shares have been established in Spain. airport-to-airport flows and total East Coast study area flows.

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9 Table S3. Possible diversions from air to rail in the East Coast Mega-region (1012). Air Passengers; Base Air Passengers Diverted Air Passengers Diverted Markets and Diversion Rates Case, No Diversion to HSR: Low Diversion to HSR: High Diversion Corridor Used for Market Diversion Rates* 2007 2025 2007 2025 2007 2025 Adjacent North Partial Empire/NEC 929,540 1,590,703 92,955 159,072 228,121 390,379 D.C. Adjacent North Partial Empire/NEC 116,030 294,356 11,603 29,436 28,475 72,239 PHL Adjacent North Partial Empire/NEC 113,200 194,767 11,320 19,477 27,781 47,798 Adjacent South BostonD.C. NEC 1,814,090 3,212,528 199,550 353,378 489,716 867,227 NYCAlbany/ Full Empire/NEC 339,810 669,774 33,981 66,978 83,394 164,371 Rochester NYCD.C. NEC 1,503,440 3,049,680 165,378 335,465 405,856 823,266 NYCBOS NEC 1,680,870 3,253,951 184,896 357,935 453,753 878,409 NYCAdjacent NEC/Partial SEC 484,520 969,040 49,468 98,935 121,398 242,797 South (Southeast Corridor) PHLBOS NEC 579,390 1,119,553 63,733 123,151 156,407 302,225 NYCHarrisburg Partial Empire/NEC 880 1,935 88 193 216 475 7,561,770 14,356,286 814,979 1,546,045 1,997,125 3,791,210 Definitions: Adjacent North= BDL, ALB, and SYR. Adjacent South= RIC, ORF, and PHF; from Figure 2.9 *Diversion rates by CRA International. That early analysis suggested a total potential diversion of port and airspace congestion is more complicated than implied between 1.5 million (low estimate) and 3.8 million (high esti- by these basic observations. Although the number of passen- mate) air travelers as a result of system-wide implementation gers declined sharply, the number of planes did not. Looking of HSR throughout the East Coast Mega-region, as shown in just at BOSLGA (home of the original two shuttle operators), Table S3. This number could be compared, in theory, with the the number of planes declined only by about 4%, responding 11 million air travelers forecast to be diverted in California and to a corresponding passenger decline (for several reasons) of Nevada. Chapter 2 notes that much of the "diversion" to rail in about 40%. In this period, the average aircraft size fell by about key East Coast markets has already occurred, which helps to 30% for the BOSLGA route. explain some of the difference in scale between East and West There are two powerful "lessons" from the BostonNew Coast levels of potential diversion from air. York case study. First, the implementation of alternative poli- At the same time, the project concluded (see Chapter 4) cies toward HSR could have massive impacts on air passenger that the levels of diversion on an airport-specific basis do not demand and should be explicitly modeled in the aviation fore- support the concept that the provision of HSR in either cor- casting process. Second, the expected "diversion" from air to ridor will make the problem of airport congestion disappear. rail cannot be seen as automatically causing any kind of linear, The research team's very preliminary analysis of possible parallel impact on the number of planes in the subject corri- decreases in airport boardings ranged from a high of 6% at dor. This underscores the essential message of Chapter 5: the SAN, to under 1% at JFK and at EWR. primary issue in aviation capacity in the two mega-regions concerns the need for airport managers to have more control What Happened in Response to the Diversion of Air Passengers? Table S4. Change in air passengers from BOS to NYC (4). Parallel with the dramatic rise in Amtrak ridership over the AIR PASSENGERS 1993 1999 2007 past decade, air traffic between BOS and the NYC region (two BOS to EWR 302,160 300,300 145,050 directions) fell by more than 750,000 passengers, as shown in BOS to JFK 62,090 58,420 176,790 Table S4 (reported in one direction). Most of these moved to BOS to LGA 704,550 868,790 512,980 rail, which raised its ticket price; some rail riders (simultane- ously) moved to low-fare bus carriers. But the impact on air- Total BOS to NYC 1,068,800 1,227,510 834,820

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10 and more accountability for improving the throughput of their line will be driven by more concerns than just the quality of facilities. The research summarized in Chapter 2 suggests that the services offered on the short leg of the trip; the decision not only a combination of lowering actual air travel with a well- to abandon the short feeder flights to Stuttgart was based on a developed program to optimize the efficiency of the airports concern for market competitiveness for the profitable long- will bring about the policy objective of lowering congestion and distance flight segments. The case study suggests that the pub- producing the kind of 2025 aviation capacity the industry has lic perception of rail for short-distance feeder service is still been seeking. perceived as a good that is either inferior to the short-distance air segment or is simply not understood by the market. Rail as a Complementary Mode to the The research team found the literature base to be distinctly Aviation System weaker, and of generally lower quality, on the subject of rail services in a complementary mode to support longer dis- Because of an extensive literature base on the subject of tances air services at major airports than for city-center to potential air passenger diversion from new HSR services from city-center markets. In carrying out the work program for the city center to city center, it has been possible to establish a preparation of this report, it has become clear that the techni- sense of scale for the amount of possible diversions from air cal base for analyzing rail services as part of an intermodal pas- passenger traffic, and to briefly observe how the market has senger trip is weaker than for other aspects of this project. In responded in one case study corridor (BOSNYC). The same Chapter 6, the report suggests that the passenger rail and avi- is not the case for analyzing the potential role of intercity rail ation communities should work together to better document in providing short-distance feeder service to airports provid- the potential of intercity rail services to provide short-distance ing long-distance air trip segments. feeder access to long-distance flight segments. In theory, rail services could provide a complementary func- tion in which short-distance intercity feeder services are pro- The Adequacy of the Planning Process to vided to the airport, with precious slots freed for profitable use Support Investment in in longer distance services. In fact, however, the number of Long-Distance Services cases where the rail services have become feeder services to the exclusion of flights on that city-pair are few. To better under- The research team concluded that the present level of coor- stand the ability of intercity rail services to (a) feed longer dis- dination of alternative long-distance modes could benefit tance flights and (b) decrease the actual number of short flights from a fundamental restructuring. The general state of data on in the impacted airport, the project undertook a comparison which to base policies and judgments concerning the longer of the highly integrated AIRail ticketing program offered by distance trip (i.e., beyond the metropolitan area or beyond the Lufthansa German Airlines between Frankfurt Airport and state borders) is lacking. That decisionmakers are being asked Cologne (90 miles to the north) and the same program offered to allocate $8 billion to HSR, and even greater amounts to between the airport Stuttgart (90 miles to the south). highways, with an absence of a common data source for inter- As documented in Chapter 2, the joint ticketing project state and interregional trips is of concern. resulted in the abandonment of short flights in one case, There is at present no publicly owned data set that describes Frankfurt AirportCologne (Figure S8) and no abandonment county-to-county (or even state-to-state) automobile vehicle of short flights in the other, Frankfurt AirportStuttgart. This trip flows on a multistate basis. In this manner, the multimodal case study in air/rail complementarity shows that the concept analysis capacity is far behind the MITRE FATE forecasts (1), is indeed viable (based on the Cologne leg), but that the air- which have created national county-to-county aviation trip flows. As a result, the mode share of airline trips as a portion of 300,000 AIRail passengers total trips is not documented even for the largest, most dominant Number of Passengers 250,000 between Frankfurt city-pairs. This poses a challenge to even the best-intentioned Airport and Cologne 200,000 analyses of longer distance travel. Train Station 150,000 Flight passengers Until very recently, airport forecasting has been focused on 100,000 between Frankfurt an airport-specific approach to demand. The shift to a county- 50,000 Airport and Cologne of-origin to county-of-destination forecasting approach Airport included in the FACT 2 study is laudable and should be 0 widened considerably to accommodate recent policy and fund- 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ing changes. It could benefit from becoming more multimodal Year in nature, to be merged with similar work from other modes. Figure S8. Rise in AIRail market share between In many cases, modal agencies use elaborate descriptions of Frankfurt airport and Cologne train stations (13). multistate travel, but these resources are not made available to

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11 the public for business reasons. The result is that the quality of alternatives on a corridor-specific basis. Although it could be public debate suffers from a lack of a continuous, comprehen- argued that gaining a full understanding of modal alternatives sive, and cooperative process. between the Bay Area and the Los Angeles Basin in the West To begin to develop the kinds of multimodal tools envi- Coast is fundamentally a national planning issue, extensive sioned in this research, the research team has taken the first modeling of highway and rail alternatives (both data-intensive step in the development of county-to-county aviation trip activities) will result in a geographic focus that takes the form tables reflecting the true origin and true destination of the trip- of a mega-region, not a national model. To this end, the U.S. maker, as discussed in the Executive Summary under Chap- DOT commissioned a series of "Corridors of the Future" in ter 3. Ultimately, the organization of aviation data in a format which individual states are encouraged to form multistate, consistent with the requirements of the continuing, compre- corridor-based joint planning efforts. hensive, and cooperative planning process required for ground Second, what is often referred to as regional aviation plan- modes will support the development of a new, multimodal ning needs to focus on a logical geographic area whenever transportation planning process for the longer distance trip, there is a potential application of the "family of airports" con- including aviation. cept brought to fruition by the New England Regional Avia- tion Systems Project (NERASP) (15). The interviews with airport managers (Appendix A in the Summary of Chapter 3-- report) revealed that, with rare exceptions, the present system Multijurisdictional Issues in planning does not fill the gap between airport-based planning Aviation Capacity Planning and national planning. Most airport executives reported that The research has concluded that changes could strengthen they are only slightly affected by regional planning. the aviation planning process in two dimensions. As discussed Currently, no public agency is tasked with analyzing and in the summary of Chapter 2, aviation decision making could presenting the needs and expectations of the longer distance benefit by being integrated with the decision-making process travelers in the metropolitan areas. Topics that are not for the other long-distance modes--most notably, HSR and addressed include travel preferences in terms of markets and highways. Chapter 3 focuses on the opportunity for aviation frequency of service as well as airport preferences in terms of planning to reach beyond the present boundaries of the airport accessibility and reliability. These topics are the logical start- at two scales, both of which can be described as multijurisdic- ing point for a revitalized metropolitan (or a possible supra- tional (See Exhibit S3 for highlights and key themes included metropolitan) system planning process that would monitor in Chapter 3). traveler expectations and document certain benchmark levels of measured performance. A passenger-centric planning process could provide analytic Gaps in the Current System support to airport planning and empower those officials who Planning Process are interested in maximizing the satisfaction of travelers from First, national planning efforts may need to be augmented the surrounding region. Such a multijurisdictional planning to a mega-regional scale to understand and model multimodal process could address such issues as benchmarking airport There is a gap in planning coverage between the scale of on-airport planning and national aviation planning: regional plan- ning efforts have not yet met their potential. In New England, a highly innovative multi-airport planning process supported the eventual growth in the role of the smaller, more underused airports--to the benefit of all. Aviation planning could benefit from adopting the data organization scheme of the comprehensive transportation plan- ning process, which is based on the flows by all modes from origins to destinations; this will support integration with planning for other modes. To support a multi-airport planning process, it is essential to create analysis tools that reflect the true origin and true destination of the passenger--not just airport to airport. The organization of aviation data in terms of true origin to true destination allows a more exact description of the poten- tial contribution of underused airports. An evaluation process based on the measure of performance of the total trip experienced by the traveler would result in a planning process that is more transparent and accountable. Exhibit S3. Highlights and key themes included in Chapter 3.

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12 capacity, tracking projections for capacity enhancement, and Boston-Logan Share of New England raising issues of total system performance. 80% Airport Passengers 75% Gaining Capacity from Underused Airports 70% 65% The research has concluded that to gain better use of exist- ing underused capacity at smaller airports in the region, the 60% aviation capacity planning system would need to become more 55% multijurisdictional. Chapter 3 reviews how the creation of a 50% unified, coordinated multi-airport planning process (NERASP) 1980 1990 2000 2005 was associated with the creation of a more rational "family of Year airports" (Figure S9) for the Boston region. The chapter shows Figure S10. Restructuring of how a regional analysis (rather than an airport-based analysis) volumes in the Boston family can support the study of the potential of lesser scale regional of airports (16). airports to provide additional capacity to the systems of the two mega-regions, provided that the operating carriers decided to take advantage of their presence. The chapter examines the of passengers with an appreciation for the financial risks in the importance of gathering and analyzing data on a multi-airport, air transportation industry and the interaction among airport super-regional basis and provides examples of how such new markets. The FAA included the NERASP initiative as a strategy regional aviation planning tools can be used. for increasing system capacity in its 20062010 Flight Plan (17). New England's regional airports have continued to evolve A key conclusion of this research is that enhanced metro- into a system in which increasingly overlapping service areas politan (or supra-metropolitan) airport system planning can and improved ground access options are providing passengers be helpful in addressing airport congestion issues in regions with real options as they make air travel decisions. As Figure S10 that include major metropolitan areas. There are a variety shows, the goal of reducing passenger burden at BOS is being of remedial measures available, from more efficient use of realized through this cooperative planning effort--since 1980, existing runways to expanded use of secondary airports and the share of New England air passengers at BOS has declined the shifting of some trips to surface transportation, particu- from about 75% to less than 60% in 2005. The conveners of the larly HSR. The evaluation of these options should take into NERASP initiative believe the New England region has bene- account the need to generate passenger acceptance and polit- fited by combining an understanding of the long-term needs ical support. When the tools of regional analysis, including the develop- ment and refinement of a planning process based on flows between true origins and true destinations, are applied to the question of underutilized capacity, market research data can be generated quickly and economically. In the example shown in Table S5 and Figure S11, the pres- ent air travel patterns are revealed for all those living in a loca- tion closer to Allentown/Lehigh Valley International Airport in Pennsylvania than to any other airport. Of those in this "natu- ral market area," 77% of air travelers do not use their "home town" airport. The policy question can then be examined con- cerning whether some of these local travelers could make their transfer movements outside of the congested mega-region, instead of at the heart of it. Organizing the planning data in this manner allows the examination of the possibility that under- used airport capacity could make a greater contribution than is now the case. The Importance of Applying Transport Planning Tools to Aviation Planning The research team believes that employing a complete trip Figure S9. Airports included in the NERASP (15). OD approach to airport planning would provide aviation

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13 Table S5. Airport choice by trip destination and natural market area for Lehigh Valley international airport. EWR PHL Lehigh Valley JFK LGA Destination Zone (%) (%) Intl. (%) (%) (%) Southeast U.S. 28 28 34 5 2 Upper Midwest 25 34 34 3 4 Transatlantic 52 13 1 33 0 Lower Midwest 35 36 21 5 3 California South 34 30 18 16 1 South-Central America 44 23 4 28 1 California North 33 29 19 18 1 Northwest Zone 35 30 23 9 1 New England 14 64 11 7 3 Transpacific 42 15 11 31 1 AlaskaCanada 35 23 30 7 5 NY, NJ, PA 14 52 9 23 2 Mid-Atlantic 26 22 17 18 14 Grand Total 33 29 23 12 2 planners with a view of the market-driven issues that airlines To enable such an approach to become the norm, rather than consider when planning service and routes. Importantly, this a periodic undertaking stemming from a particular one-time approach holds potential for enabling aviation managers to study, standards and protocols for data collection, manage- strike a better balance between meeting customer needs and ment, and reporting could be developed. Unless "true" OD data operational desires. Finally, the organization of basic travel on airport passengers are collected in a standardized way and on flow data in this manner will allow later integration with the an appropriate geographic scale (as pioneered in NERASP), the dominant work describing highway and rail travel. usefulness of such data for improving mega-region scale airport Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton, PA: Lehigh Valley International 500,000 400,000 Number of Passengers 300,000 200,000 Other LaGuardia JFK 100,000 Lehigh Valley Philadelphia Newark Liberty 0 Northwest Zone Northern California Southern California South-Central America Southeast US Alaska/Canada Mid-Atlantic Upper Midwest New England Lower Middle West NY/NJ/PA Transatlantic Transpacific Destination Zone Figure S11. Airport choice by trip destination, Lehigh Valley natural market area.

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14 For each major airport in the study areas, Chapter 4 includes the following: A summary of the role of shorter distance, intra-mega-region traffic at the subject airport. A review of the possible implications of planned rail projects for trip substitution. A review of the role for rail and proximate airports for multijurisdictional solutions. A review of the importance of shorter distance flights to support economically important longer distance flights, such as international services. Conditions in the year 2025, in which the calculated impacts of doing nothing are presented as a surrogate metric for the scale of the challenge at the subject airport. A quick, preliminary assessment of the potential roles of rail substitution, rail complementarity, and better regional cooperation, suggesting that none of these alone represents a "silver bullet" that will eliminate the problem of aviation capacity in the mega-regions. Exhibit S4. Highlights and key themes included in Chapter 4. planning will be minimal. However, by collecting data regularly tions of the major themes of the research on the largest air- and at the appropriate geographic level, airports within the ports in the two areas, with particular attention to the shorter mega-regions could jointly assess their capacity--individually distance trips and trip segments that occur within the borders and collectively--and plan for more efficient and customer- of the study area (see Exhibit S4 for highlights and key themes focused allocation of operations. Such multijurisdictional air- included in Chapter 4). port planning that seeks to share and take advantage of regional In this research area, the short-distance air segments require data can be a critical element of improving overall air system the most analysis. Trips to and from areas outside the study capacity in the coastal mega-regions and nationally. area are simply not candidates for either rail for substitution or for providing complementary services, as discussed in Chap- ter 2. However, longer distance trips may be candidates for Summary of Chapter 4--Airport- diversion to adjacent airports closer to the origin of the trip- Specific Implications of the maker, as discussed in Chapter 3. Thus, the longer distance Major Themes trips are described for each major airport in terms of the geo- The previous chapters focused on the total impact of vari- graphic distribution of their destination trip ends. Table S6 ous strategies and management on the system as a whole, or shows an airport activity summary prepared for the San Fran- as part of a larger aggregation. Chapter 4 reviews the implica- cisco International Airport, allowing the analyst to examine Table S6. An example of the airport activity summaries presented in Chapter 4 for SFO. San Francisco, 2007 (SFO) Where Are the Enplaning Passengers Going? From Where Are the Connecting Passengers Coming? Boardings From Outside From From Total Total Originating from Transfer West Coast West Coast Atlantic/ South-Central Destination Zone (%) Boardings Boardings Flights Study Area Study Area Pacific America California North 1.9 318,233 22,280 295,953 82,740 169,566 73,195 4,905 California 14.6 2,405,822 1,614,370 791,452 127,720 618,016 271,751 7,868 South/LAS To the North 11.2 1,852,852 1,250,521 602,331 278,036 145,823 155,797 29,199 To the East 42.2 6,963,448 6,067,140 896,308 251,760 271,390 504,283 2,220 Transatlantic 9.1 1,503,667 1,419,502 84,165 57,671 48,320 0 0 Transpacific 16.8 2,767,323 1,846,162 921,161 287,275 767,697 10 220 South-Central 4.2 696,748 652,236 44,512 12,773 60,618 320 0 America Totals 100 16,508,093 12,872,211 3,635,882 1,097,975 2,081,430 1,005,356 44,412

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15 This research has concluded that the current system suffers from unclear responsibility: no one has the authority and accountability for the management of congestion at mega-region airports. The management of existing resources could be improved: capacity in the mega-regions can be increased only when the all the major players are empowered to solve the problem. Opportunities to reduce mega-region airport congestion and improve the overall cost and quality of passenger service do exist; what would be beneficial are approaches and programs that encourage key decisionmakers to grasp such opportunities. When the system fails, a trigger mechanism could be set off; with the responsibilities of each party clearly specified, the goals of accountability and transparency could be met. There are roles for both the national and local levels in defining these roles and procedures. The responsibility of those in charge is to make air travel reliable for passengers; this is a form of accountability beyond making the airport available for all classes of aeronautical activities. A way to do this is to focus on the passenger experience. A congested airport does not necessarily make the airport rea- sonably available nor are delays arguably nondiscriminatory from the passenger perspective. Exhibit S5. Highlights and key themes included in Chapter 5. where travelers are going (the rows) and where they are com- solve the problem (see Exhibit S5 for highlights and key ing from (the columns). themes included in Chapter 5). The Implications of the The Potential for Demand Airport-by-Airport Review Management at Airports A quick, preliminary assessment of the potential roles of From the research undertaken, it is clear that the scarce rail substitution, rail complementarity, and better local air- resource of capacity is not allocated efficiently. Chapter 5 inves- port cooperation suggests that, while important, none of tigates methods in which such capacity could be allocated in a these represents a "silver bullet" that will eliminate the issue way that balances passenger service from two perspectives: of lack of aviation capacity in the mega-regions, based on flight frequency and service reliability. The balance of stake- holder roles is explored in Chapter 5, with the goal of develop- this airport-by-airport review. In the following chapter, the ing approaches that are agreeable to all stakeholders and fit the argument will be made that the aviation industry would individual needs of a congested airport. The chapter examines benefit from significantly increasing the role of accountabil- alternatives to the current congestion and demand manage- ity and transparency in the management of the airport/ ment structure in which the roles at the federal and local levels aviation system. While the need to become more multimodal are unclear. It reviews a wide variety of candidate strategies and and more multijurisdictional is self-evident, the major actions, under the context of local action with federal guidance. opportunities to increase functional capacity in the coastal Chapter 5 further develops several strategies to increase airport mega-regions lie within the aviation sector itself. Chapter 5 throughput capacity, examining the barriers and constraints will suggest a new relationship between local and national that impact their implementation. The report explores the institutions to deal with a real and present crisis in func- idea that more attention should be paid to studies at individ- tional capacity. ual congested airports that are using the methods to prioritize the value of individual flights, based on their contribution to Summary of Chapter 5--Airport delay and their customer service values. Demand Management In Chapter 5, the research team describes an example of how a framework might be developed for implementing demand The research team found that opportunities to reduce management. The purpose of a demand management program mega-region airport congestion and improve the overall cost as identified here is to limit delays that occur when the num- and quality of passenger service do exist; what would be ben- ber of aircraft scheduled to arrive at an airport during a par- eficial are policies and programs that encourage key deci- ticular time exceeds the capacity of that airport. The most sionmakers to grasp them. The chapter concludes that the fundamental change suggested by the research is for all the management of existing resources could be improved. major parties to recognize demand management as a legitimate Chapter 5 suggests that capacity in the mega-regions will be alternative to capacity expansion as a means of ameliorating increased only when all the major players are empowered to airport congestion problems.

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16 The Purpose of Demand Management line B. In this event, A has not only lost the operational bene- fit from its schedule change, but it also now faces stronger The same quantity of air transport payload capacity can competition. be provided with larger numbers of small aircraft flights or smaller numbers of large aircraft flights. It has long been rec- ognized that the decisions of air carriers about what recipe to FAA-Proposed Changes in Rules/Regulations use have important ramifications for the quality of service and Most recently, in a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to level of accessibility provided by the air transportation system amend its 1996 policy on rates and charges, the DOT proposed on the one hand and for the amounts of flight traffic, levels of to explicitly allow airport proprietors to establish a two-part congestion and delay, and infrastructure requirements on the landing fee that recognizes both the number of operations and other. In most airports, small aircrafts use the same runways as the weight of the aircraft, in order to provide incentives for air- large ones and occupy them for about the same length of time. lines to modify aircraft gauge or frequency to reduce delays at Thus, when the airport is congested, the operational impact of a congested airport. In the words of the GAO, this should "pro- a small flight is no less than that of a large one. Indeed, the vide greater flexibility to operators of congested airports to use slower approach speeds and longer in-trail separation require- landing fees to provide incentives to air carriers to use the air- ments of small aircraft can result in longer effective service port at less congested times or to use alternate airports to meet times. Thus, when airlines and other airport users provide regional air service needs" (19). capacity with more small flights rather than fewer large ones, Airport operators have essentially no direct control of airline the result can be higher levels of congestion and delay. Using the activity at their airports, including whether the airline serves ability to predict the delay impacts of removing flights from the the airport at all, the frequency or time of day of service, or the arrival stream, the research examined three up-gauging strate- aircraft type or size used to provide service. They do have pro- gies in a detailed case study. In the first strategy, short-haul prietors' rights to use rates and charges to influence airline flights are eliminated. A second approach to up-gauging is to service patterns, but those rights are still being refined. encourage, when appropriate, the substitution of less frequent In light of the potential to reduce delays with innovative large jet service for more frequent commuter service. Finally, management and the unclear role of aviation stakeholders in the strategy of diverting small aircraft from the case study air- managing delays, a change in approach could better align port, SFO, to some other local airport is considered. flight scheduling decisions with the needs of society through demand management. The chapter argues that there are a Implications number of reasons why the primary focus of demand man- agement responsibility and action should be at the local level. The chapter shows that changing the schedule, whether by As currently practiced in the United States, air demand man- eliminating short-haul flights, consolidating flights, or divert- agement is a reactive strategy that is performed after delays have ing very small aircraft, can reduce delays and often does so at a reached unacceptable levels. In contrast to this, the demand reasonable cost in terms of the extra line-haul time, schedule management policies and programs could be implemented delay, and access time that such changes require. For any airport most effectively prior to the advent of severe congestion. with high delays due to inadequate operational capacity, elimi- nating flights during busy periods will reduce delays consider- Guidance and Accountability ably. The quantity of this benefit, as well as the cost of losing any particular flight, will vary from flight to flight, time period A broad outline for how this can be accomplished is the to time period, day to day, and airport to airport. There is, following: setting mutually agreeable airport-delay targets, however, a wide body of research and experience suggesting providing a detailed list of actions an airport can take to meet that, in many circumstances, the benefit greatly exceeds the the delay level, and implementing incentives and penalties for cost and that the cumulative gain from such changes would be not meeting such an action. impressive. Airports that exceed the delay trigger immediately could be What should be done to realize these gains? Broadly speak- requested to perform an immediate update to their master ing, in the current system there is no actor who has both the plan. This airport master plan update could have, at the mini- authority to make the desired schedule changes and the ability mum, two new sections. One could address the potential of the to realize the gains from doing so. Airlines and other aircraft airport to expand capacity in the long term to manage demand. operators whose decisions determine the flight demand at any The other section could be the development of a demand man- particular airport can realize benefits for some flights they con- agement plan. trol by eliminating or rescheduling other flights, but this is gen- Airports where the trigger is not exceeded could be further erally a small fraction of the total benefit (18). Moreover, in a subdivided into two categories. Some airports will find through competitive, unregulated industry, the elimination of a flight their modeling that traffic will exceed the trigger before their by Airline A may be offset by initiation of a new service by Air- next scheduled master plan update. There could then be guid-

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17 ance about how quickly such airports should update their and key themes included in Chapter 6), which are summa- master plans--potentially immediately. Airports where the rized and described in the following paragraphs. trigger will be exceeded in over 5 years but before the next Concerning a multimodal planning capability, the report master plan could be requested to update their master plan in suggests the following: a 5-year period. When airports accept public funds from the FAA, they agree An overarchingly intermodal approach to the analysis of under United States Code Title 49 (Section 5.4.3) to conditions long-distance trip-making and trip provision should be of grant assurances. Agreeing to these assurances means that all developed. Given the congestion at mega-region airports, aircraft that can safely land at that airport must be accommo- a unit of capacity created on an HSR system need not dated with no discrimination. The chapter introduces the idea be seen as a "competitor" to the aviation system, but as a that carriers have fleet mix recipes with important ramifica- complementary provider of services over a full multimodal tions for the quality of service and the level of accessibility pro- system. vided by airports and the entire air transportation system. It Early examples of "Corridors of the Future," such as the argues that when demand is high relative to capacity, demand I-95 Corridor Coalition, should be reviewed to find ways management may be required to fulfill the commitment not to to help states who come together on a voluntary basis to discriminate. The guidance provided to airports for accepting improve their planning capabilities concerning longer dis- their designation as critical-delay airports could involve a new tance trip-making. way to envision aviation system accountability. The integration of aviation trip flows with other modal trip flows be undertaken as a pilot project in the East and in California. Summary of Chapter 6--What Further research should be undertaken that would help pro- Was Learned, and What Are the vide a better understanding of the possible role of air and rail Next Steps? working together. The research team located an impressive Chapter 6 of the report presents a summary of major con- amount of analytical work documenting the potential for clusions and lessons learned from the research and also pres- rail to substitute for air travel. Concerning the potential role ents a set of suggested directions (see Exhibit S6 for highlights of rail to complement air travel (e.g., as a feeder mode to The scale of the capacity problem: Analysis should continue on the questions of airport choice, schedule-based delay, and whether alternative forms of hub- bing could relieve key mega-region airports. Making the process more multimodal: The aviation system is not well equipped to undertake the kind of multimodal analysis associated with the present wider choice of options for long distance trip making; both the tools and the structure could be improved. The potential role of rail complementarity in the United States should be documented further. Making the process more multijurisdictional: Regional solutions could gain optimized capacity from a "family of airports" concept. Regional organizations could be crafted based on unique local requirements and (at least partially) on a passenger-centric basis. Multimodal tools and procedures could be developed to support integration with the comprehensive planning process. Dealing with airport management, the report explores a variety of approaches including the following: Giving individual airport operators the primary responsibility for developing demand management programs appro- priate for their local circumstances, within broad national guidelines; Enhancing the ability of airports to manage demand through a variety of operational pricing-related options; and Outlining an example of a potential framework for demand management that would define a set of critical-delay air- ports, along with the establishment of delay standards, and an accepted method of predicting delay. Exhibit S6. Highlights and key themes included in Chapter 6.

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18 longer distance flights), the research did not reveal much capacity expansion, development of alternative airports, and solid analytical work. investments in alternative modes--to reduce delay. Concerning alterations in the planning process, the report suggests the following: References An expanded version of system planning could be made 1. MITRE Corporation, Capacity Needs in the National Airspace available throughout the congested mega-regions on the East 20072025, U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, May 2007. 2. Airport Cooperative Research Program, Project Statement, ACRP and West coasts. This has been done in NERASP, which 03-10 [RFP], Innovative Approaches to Addressing Aviation Capac- helped to identify unused capacity at secondary airports that ity Issues in Coastal Mega-Regions, Posted Date: 7/5/2007. could be used to relieve congestion at BOS. Similarly, the 3. Map, Microsoft Streets and Trips, 2007, copyright Microsoft Cor- Metropolitan Transportation Commission Regional Airport poration and its Suppliers. System Plan (MTC RASP) is now underway in the Bay area, 4. ACRP 3-10 Database, derived from the DB1B and T-100 data of the BTS. involving the cooperation of several major airports and look- 5. Performance data accessed from Research and Innovative Technol- ing into alternatives to meet the long-term travel demand, ogy Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, http:// including the potential role of HSR passenger service. www.transtats.bts.gov/airports.asp As multi-airport planning processes are established, the 6. Adler, T., C. Falzarano and G. Spitz, "Modeling Service Trade- separate airports could be encouraged to undertake data offs in Air Itinerary Choices," Transportation Research Record 1915, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, collection efforts on as close to a simultaneous basis as pos- Washington, D.C., 2005. sible, following the example set in both NERASP and MTC 7. Steer Davies Gleave, Air and Rail Competition and Complementar- RASP. Standardization of data collection format and of ity Final Report. Prepared for the EU's Directorate General for period of acquisition allows for the creation of a meaning- Energy and Transportation, August 2006. 8. Cambridge Systematics, Bay Area/California High Speed Rail Rid- ful, useful regional data resource that includes both long- ership and Revenue Forecasting Study. Prepared for the Metropoli- distance segments and local ground access data. tan Transportation Commission and California High Speed Rail Even without new supra-regional studies, existing metro- Authority, July 2007. politan planning organizations (MPOs) could become 9. Maren Outwater, Cambridge Systematics, "Bay Area/California High more involved in the collection, analysis, and support of Speed Rail Ridership and Revenue Forecasting Study" presented to the California High Speed Rail Authority Board, March 2, 2007. data collection and management in the aviation sector, 10. U.S. Department of Transportation, "Analysis of the Benefits of following the example of the Washington Metropolitan High-Speed Rail on the Northeast Corridor," Office of the Inspec- Council of Governments, among several other advanced tor General, Office of the Secretary, Information Memorandum, examples of MPO participation in aviation planning. June 16, 2008. Ridership forecasts by CRA International. 11. U.S. Federal Railroad Administration, High Speed Ground Trans- portation for America.1997. Ridership forecasts by CRA Inter- Concerning the potential for demand management at air- national, for the Volpe Transportation Systems Center. ports, the report explores a variety of approaches including 12. New York State Senate High Speed Rail Task Force Action Pro- the following: gram, 2008; Chapter Three, pp. 38. Ridership forecasts by CRA International. Giving individual airport operators the primary responsi- 13. Strata Consulting, 2008 for ACRP 3-10. 14. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S. DOT, American Travel bility for developing demand management programs that Survey, 1995. are appropriate for their local circumstances. These pro- 15. U.S. Federal Aviation Administration-New England Region, The grams would follow broad guidelines that allow for a diver- New England Regional Airport System Plan, 2008. sity of approaches. 16. "Strategic Initiatives at Logan International Airport," presentation by Enhancing the ability of airports to manage demand through Flavio Lee, Manager of Aviation Planning, Massport, June 23, 2007. 17. U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, 20062010 FAA Flight Plans. a variety of operational and pricing-related initiatives. 18. Hansen, M. M., et al. "Influence of Capacity Constraints on Airline Outlining and giving examples of a potential framework for Fleet Mix. Research Report," UCB-ITS-RR-2001-6, August 2001. demand management that would define a set of critical-delay 19. U.S. Government Accountability Office, National Airspace System: airports for which controlling delay is considered to be essen- DOT and FAA Actions Will Likely Have a Limited Effect on Reduc- ing Delays during Summer 2008 Travel Season. Testimony before tial. Such airports could be provided with guidance on creat- the Subcommittee on Aviation Operations, Safety, and Security, ing a demand management program, with demand man- Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, U.S. Sen- agement to be one of a wide range of strategies--including ate. GAO-08-934T, 2008.